The Score craps on the Canucks playoffs chances

[spook007]

1 hour ago, Rindiculous said:

Yah lots of players had down years on our roster therefore expected goals player specifically don’t look good but there’s no way most of them don’t bounce back.

Agree 100%

[Provost]

11 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

What is this model seeing that I'm missing? 

Why are they expected to do so badly? 

Those are a bunch of models... not just one.  We are expected to do much better than last year and playing a little above .500, but we were terrible so that still doesn't make us a likely playoff team.

We haven't really made the playoffs in years aside from a quirk due to a Covid shutdown that let us squeak in due to a play in format.  Every year folks here are supremely confident that we were a playoff team and bashed the folks saying we weren't for being stupid.

Our defence is just terrible on paper, one of the worst in the league... and that was even with Hamonic in the mix.  We will need several guys there to outperform their career averages by a wide margin to hope to have a sniff at the playoffs.  Edler and Schmidt took most of the tough match up minutes last year, even though they barely kept their heads above water in that regard... we haven't brought in anyone with a resume to replace them.

We "might" make the playoffs, all the models give us a decent (even if below 50%) chance to.  If anyone thinks we are some sort of playoff lock, they are really just being more of a homer than being realistic.  We should be fighting for a wildcard spot until near the end if all goes well.  A couple key injuries to other teams in the division (and not ours) could swing things pretty dramatically as well.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Provost

[CanucksJay]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

Those are a bunch of models... not just one.  We are expected to do much better than last year and playing a little above .500, but we were terrible so that still doesn't make us a likely playoff team.

We haven't really made the playoffs in years aside from a quirk due to a Covid shutdown that let us squeak in due to a play in format.  Every year folks here are supremely confident that we were a playoff team and bashed the folks saying we weren't for being stupid.

Our defence is just terrible on paper, one of the worst in the league... and that was even with Hamonic in the mix.  We will need several guys there to outperform their career averages by a wide margin to hope to have a sniff at the playoffs.  Edler and Schmidt took most of the tough match up minutes last year, even though they barely kept their heads above water in that regard... we haven't brought in anyone with a resume to replace them.

We "might" make the playoffs, all the models give us a decent (even if below 50%) chance to.  If anyone thinks we are some sort of playoff lock, they are really just being more of a homer than being realistic.  We should be fighting for a wildcard spot until near the end if all goes well.  A couple key injuries to other teams in the division (and not ours) could swing things pretty dramatically as well.

LOL shoot... That was my blind spot... Oh welps. Money is already in and I'm not cashing out yet. 

I think I have until reg. Season starts so hopefully we dress full roster and dominate oils tonight. 

[Rindiculous]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Those are a bunch of models... not just one.  We are expected to do much better than last year and playing a little above .500, but we were terrible so that still doesn't make us a likely playoff team.

We haven't really made the playoffs in years aside from a quirk due to a Covid shutdown that let us squeak in due to a play in format.  Every year folks here are supremely confident that we were a playoff team and bashed the folks saying we weren't for being stupid.

Our defence is just terrible on paper, one of the worst in the league... and that was even with Hamonic in the mix.  We will need several guys there to outperform their career averages by a wide margin to hope to have a sniff at the playoffs.  Edler and Schmidt took most of the tough match up minutes last year, even though they barely kept their heads above water in that regard... we haven't brought in anyone with a resume to replace them.

We "might" make the playoffs, all the models give us a decent (even if below 50%) chance to.  If anyone thinks we are some sort of playoff lock, they are really just being more of a homer than being realistic.  We should be fighting for a wildcard spot until near the end if all goes well.  A couple key injuries to other teams in the division (and not ours) could swing things pretty dramatically as well.

We may have a slightly weak right side but that doesn’t mean our D core is bad many teams have a bad right side including the current Stanley Cup Champions.  I really think we have a contending roster…it just depends if we have the right coaching system to utilize it.

[iinatcc]

The feeling I get the hockey analysts world is 40 / 60 on the team making the playoffs with 40 for getting in.

 

But even the ones that say Canucks are getting are attributing this to the weak Pacific Division with some (like Mike Johnson) even thinking Seattle will get ahead of Vancouver

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, Rindiculous said:

We may have a slightly weak right side but that doesn’t mean our D core is bad many teams have a bad right side including the current Stanley Cup Champions.  I really think we have a contending roster…it just depends if we have the right coaching system to utilize it.

Except Trotz is in NYI.    Really, there isn't many coaches that are a tier above, he of course is one of them though. 

[IBatch]

5 hours ago, Provost said:

Those are a bunch of models... not just one.  We are expected to do much better than last year and playing a little above .500, but we were terrible so that still doesn't make us a likely playoff team.

We haven't really made the playoffs in years aside from a quirk due to a Covid shutdown that let us squeak in due to a play in format.  Every year folks here are supremely confident that we were a playoff team and bashed the folks saying we weren't for being stupid.

Our defence is just terrible on paper, one of the worst in the league... and that was even with Hamonic in the mix.  We will need several guys there to outperform their career averages by a wide margin to hope to have a sniff at the playoffs.  Edler and Schmidt took most of the tough match up minutes last year, even though they barely kept their heads above water in that regard... we haven't brought in anyone with a resume to replace them.

We "might" make the playoffs, all the models give us a decent (even if below 50%) chance to.  If anyone thinks we are some sort of playoff lock, they are really just being more of a homer than being realistic.  We should be fighting for a wildcard spot until near the end if all goes well.  A couple key injuries to other teams in the division (and not ours) could swing things pretty dramatically as well.

Well that's a pretty negative outlook.   This is hockey and a lot can happen in a season.   Normally a group of very good young players, turns into a very good group of veterans.   It's the trend.   And nobody is saying we don't have that right now.   Sure maybe it won't be this year - but maybe it will too.  Pretty sure JB bet his job on it too.   Not sure what you mean exactly by "all the models" that's a generalization outside the betting ones.   If that's what you mean then yes a wild card spot is the expectation.   I'm looking forward to seeing where our D actually lines up when the "experts" starts to roll out their rankings 1/4 into the season.    We haven't broken 20 for ages.     OEL looks better with 23 on his sweater then Edler has looked in years so that's promising.  Schmidt had the worst giveaway/takeaway margin in the league last year so goodbye nice to know you (but yes they were relied on the most i agree with that).    Funny how "bullish " all the experts were on the team and the players to start the season last year.  We were supposed to make the wild card last year too. 

 

So how is expecting a wild card spot being a homer?  Again this year that's the consensus. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by IBatch

[Rindiculous]

5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Well that's a pretty negative outlook.   This is hockey and a lot can happen in a season.   Normally a group of very good young players, turns into a very good group of veterans.   It's the trend.   And nobody is saying we don't have that right now.   Sure maybe it won't be this year - but maybe it will too.  Pretty sure JB bet his job on it too.   Not sure what you mean exactly by "all the models" that's a generalization outside the betting ones.   If that's what you mean then yes a wild card spot is the expectation.   I'm looking forward to seeing where our D actually lines up when the "experts" starts to roll out their rankings 1/4 into the season.    We haven't broken 20 for ages.     OEL looks better with 23 on his sweater then Edler has looked in years so that's promising.  Schmidt had the worst giveaway/takeaway margin in the league last year so goodbye nice to know you (but yes they were relied on the most i agree with that).    Funny how "bullish " all the experts were on the team and the players to start the season last year.  We were supposed to make the wild card last year too. 

 

So how is expecting a wild card spot being a homer?  Again this year that's the consensus. 

Yah the ‘experts’ only ever copy paste last years standings from last year to this year and make that their predictions.  That’s not a prediction that’s a history lesson…

[IBatch]

Just now, Rindiculous said:

Yah the ‘experts’ only ever copy paste last years standings from last year to this year and make that their predictions.  That’s not a prediction that’s a history lesson…

Well not really.   They take into consideration roster change ... but also do have a recentcy bias which is kind of hilarious too.  EDM was considered a "contender" when Lucic first arrived and they pushed ANA, an actual contender to 7 games in round two by quite a few folks .... so for sure they also are affected by what's going on in the here and now too.   But some sources are more level headed.   

[Provost]

6 hours ago, IBatch said:

Well that's a pretty negative outlook.   This is hockey and a lot can happen in a season.   Normally a group of very good young players, turns into a very good group of veterans.   It's the trend.   And nobody is saying we don't have that right now.   Sure maybe it won't be this year - but maybe it will too.  Pretty sure JB bet his job on it too.   Not sure what you mean exactly by "all the models" that's a generalization outside the betting ones.   If that's what you mean then yes a wild card spot is the expectation.   I'm looking forward to seeing where our D actually lines up when the "experts" starts to roll out their rankings 1/4 into the season.    We haven't broken 20 for ages.     OEL looks better with 23 on his sweater then Edler has looked in years so that's promising.  Schmidt had the worst giveaway/takeaway margin in the league last year so goodbye nice to know you (but yes they were relied on the most i agree with that).    Funny how "bullish " all the experts were on the team and the players to start the season last year.  We were supposed to make the wild card last year too. 

 

So how is expecting a wild card spot being a homer?  Again this year that's the consensus. 

It was referencing the graphic the poster was talking about.  It wasn’t one model it was a listing of a bunch of models which all showed us missing the playoffs

 

We are rated between a 20% and a 33% chance of making the playoffs by most of the the major outlets.  That doesn’t mean we won’t make the playoffs for sure…. It just means we are more likely than not to miss them based on the projections and our roster.

 

Expecting us to be a Stanley Cup

Contender this year or even as a lock to make the playoffs like MANY of the posts here do is absolutely being a homer.  We have an uphill battle to just squeak into the playoffs.

 

Most folks here are acting confused or hostile to the fact most hockey folks are picking us miss the playoffs.  Getting from a 73 point pace to a 84-89 point pace like we are being projected as should be considered a pretty greet improvement.

[iinatcc]

But honestly after this preseason I'm more inclined to think Canucks will miss the playoffs. Even Arizona has a better  preseason record 

[grandmaster]

4 hours ago, iinatcc said:

But honestly after this preseason I'm more inclined to think Canucks will miss the playoffs. Even Arizona has a better  preseason record 

We’ve had excellent pre-seasons in the past that led to terrible regular seasons. I wouldn’t put any weight in that. Don’t concede to these idiot Score writers. Let’s see how the team is when it counts….

[Rindiculous]

6 hours ago, iinatcc said:

But honestly after this preseason I'm more inclined to think Canucks will miss the playoffs. Even Arizona has a better  preseason record 

We’ve had the best possession numbers in the league this preseason.  That makes me more inclined we win the division.  You shouldn’t focus on results ever in the preseason but so many people here do.

[Rindiculous]

You thought this was a bad article, don’t get me started on this article: https://deadspin.com/2021-nhl-previews-the-canucks-will-upset-you-deeply-1847839901.  If the last guy had a BC girl dump him, this guy had a BC girl dump him, take him back, kill his puppy, and dump him again.

 

“Up front, the Canucks need Garland to be the first Coyote ever to escape Arizona and then prove to be worth a $&!#, because if he’s not they have a top line and not much else.”

 

“It jumps off the roster page when you look at it, but good god is this blue line an affront to nature, the Lord, and quite possibly several other deities from other cultures. There might be an air quality warning over most of B.C. this season thanks to the pungence of this group.”

“Tyler Myers has been a vaudevillian slapstick act for his entire career, but keeps getting a pass for being 6-foot-7. Or something, I can’t figure out why most of the hockey world hasn’t figured out this guy is a total dingus”

 

“The Canucks traded for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, perhaps so they could get Conor Garland, and this likely will be a huge balls-up. OEL has been declining, and heavily, for a few years now, and the Canucks will still count on him for at least top four minutes. Larsson’s possession metrics the past three seasons in Arizona were ghastly — even well below the putrid rate for the Coyotes as a team — and that’s without any change in how he was deployed. You can actually see this guy degrade with your eyes and eyes alone.”