[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[RWJC]

6 minutes ago, EdgarM said:

That's like comparing apples to oranges. The Sedins were very one dimensional and were not strong skaters to begin with. Once they slowed down and stopped producing , they were rendered basically useless. They didn't play defense or kill penalties. They didn't even check.

Miller will bring other skills to the table much like Linden, Iginla and Messier did in their latter years in the league, once his point production slows down.

Totally agree, but is that worth 8+ million for 7-8 years?

[HorvatToBaertschi]

37 minutes ago, Baratheon said:

Because there is a very good chance that Miller has negative value to the team by the time we are ready to contend.  If Miller is no longer the same guy in a few years then you have to find someone like him anyway.  Except that now we have less assets AND less cap space.  Why put ourselves in that position?

Yeah let’s gut our team of it’s leader, both on and off the ice because of an IF. 
Guy’s been on an upward trajectory ever since he’s been with us. Worst case, we dump his contract in the back side of his contract. Everybody does it.

 

id rather not make bad decisions today based on what could happen in half a decade or more. Our franchise needs to win and Miller is our best player since the Sedins. The trickle effect of getting rid of Miller in that locker room is much more scary than maybes ifs possiblys 5+ years away.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, mll said:

Miller would be a good add at the TDL - no one said otherwise.  I don't think they'll give up Newhook because they'll want to have cheaper players once MacKinnon starts his new deal.  MacKinnon could well become the highest paid player so it's hard to see them handing out another 8-9M to Miller and sacrifice their depth so he seems more like a rental.  

 

Not every team thinks that top heavy is the way to go.  Even Rutherford talks of balancing out the roster and having more depth - he talked of how they were over-reliant on just a few players and wants to spread the minutes better.

 

If you think you have a shot at the cup and you are in your window and are the current Stanley Cup champions then you will do whatever you can to take that shot.  Newhook isn't the second coming.  If Miller is on a 100+ point pace and Sakic feels he is the key to winning the cup then he will pull the trigger and trade Newhook if he has to.  Any GM would do that.

 

I don't think the MacKinnon extension has anything to do with winning the cup this year.  He will get paid regardless.  Colorado is the reigning Stanley Cup champion.  If the GM doesn't want to trade a good young player to try and win another cup then he isn't actually doing his job.  The goal is to win the cup, period.  Not try and win multiple cups years down the road.  What if MacKinnon blows out his knee?  What if they can't find a competent #1 NHL goalie?  What if Makar blows out his knee?

 

We were supposed to win multiple cups with Bure.  Then he blew out his knee and he was never the same player in Vancouver.  Then our shot at the cup also went out the window.  When you have the chance to win the cup you take the shot.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Elias Pettersson

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, combover said:

CBJ have anything  good?sillinger,Boqvist  
 

Home state for JT he’d fit the age of Team 

they signed JG need a top line Center 

cap issues would have to be cap back maybe nyquist who’s expiring and could be flipped at the deadline. 

And Lou lam wouldn’t be happy to hear CBJ might add even more offence. 
 

Kent Johnson.  Gonna be a stud.  Vancouver boy.  Johnson and Boqvist and a 2nd round pick and it's a done deal for me.  Throw in Nyquist to balance the salaries...

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

If you think Sakic and Co. give two farts that Newhook might be better value in 3-4 years vs getting Miller and potentially challenging Tampa as the best "modern dynasty" in the next few years with multiple cup wins... You don't get hockey players (turned GM/President), you don't get how competitive they are, you don't get how this works.

 

Edit: Who replaces Rantanen then?

I agree.  Even Benning wouldn't be stupid enough not to trade Newhook for Miller for a shot at back to back cups...

[BPA]

52 minutes ago, gurn said:

Once again I'm amazed at how soon people forget what happens to old hockey players.

It's like they never saw the Sedins last 3-4 seasons

They are aware and are OK with Miller making $8-9M while producing 50+ pts (or less) in the latter years.  They don’t care as they believe the window is open right now and want to contend for the cup.  Believing new GM PA and coach BB are enough of a catalyst to make the Canucks a perennial playoff performer.  And the recent signings of forward depth helps and hoping beyond hope that the D will figure itself out without an upgrade (so far).

 

[Elias Pettersson]

7 hours ago, IBatch said:

Yes and i'd pull the trigger on a deal like that for sure.   Sakic got really, really lucky with how things worked out trading Duchene.   And lucky with McKinnon exploding a year after he signed his current deal.   And lucky losing the draft (has their been a team with a worse record or close to it when he drafted Makar?) and slipping to 4th, drafting Makar.    And really lucky finding a long term partner for Makar for 2 seconds ...  So much luck was actually involved in creating his championship team, that it's just an impossible model to re-create.    

 

Then he was simply very good.   Acquiring or filling holes, with very palatable futures, Toews probably his best one, Manson a cherry on top.   
 

This team right now is a little similar to the one he took over, with one big exception.   Demko.   Otherwise a re-set definitely would make sense.   Unless we start by trading Demko, there is zero point trying to duplicate their 6-7 year journey to get where COL is right now.   Makar was drafted 5 years ago.   Also highly doubt the fanbase has the patience or the stomach for something that drastic. 

 

Sakic, like his old rival Yzerman, both seem to be HHOF caliber GMs.   Sure would be neat to see those two teams become rivals again in the playoffs.    If we aren't in it anyways lol.    Yzerman did re-set Detroits rebuild.   We might end up stuck in mediocrity ... ugh.   I hope Allvin knows what he's doing.    

What a great post my friend.  Summarizes everything perfectly. 

 

Yes the Colorado model that everyone needs to follow is to tank to get the first overall pick, then tank again to get another first overall pick but then lose the lottery on that one and get the 4th pick instead so you can draft Makar, sign your first overall pick MacKinnon to a cheap long term deal the year prior to him breaking out into a superstar allowing your team to add multiple pieces later with the extra cap space, and then the cherry on top is trading only 2 second round picks for a top pairing Dman to pair up with Makar to complete your team.

 

Such an easy model to follow I am sure any team including the Canucks could do this...  

[BPA]

31 minutes ago, EdgarM said:

That's like comparing apples to oranges. The Sedins were very one dimensional and were not strong skaters to begin with. Once they slowed down and stopped producing , they were rendered basically useless. They didn't play defense or kill penalties. They didn't even check.

Miller will bring other skills to the table much like Linden, Iginla and Messier did in their latter years in the league, once his point production slows down.

I hope you had this same attitude when Canucks signed LE back then.  His production fell off a cliff but he played defense and PK duties as well.

[EdgarM]

25 minutes ago, RWJC said:

Totally agree, but is that worth 8+ million for 7-8 years?

Well that's the big question and we may never know. Obviously the numbers and term need to be something that makes sense for both sides and I think we are finally past the NTC's  that has handcuffed us in the past. 

[Strawbone]

So JT Miller will either be re-signed, traded, or walk away at the end of the season as a free agent, and nobody knows which of those is going to happen.

 

I've read all 1200 pages so you don't have to! 

[Nucker 67]

Well, IF the Canucks win the Cup with Miller, I'll be very okay with a re-signing. No pressure. 

 

I thought for sure when this management came in, they would do things right. It would take a while, but there's a lot of mess to clean up. Some not-so-good contracts to get rid of, some older players, etc. Maybe they would try to add Draft picks and fill the prospect pool. 

 

But.....

 

to me, it looks like just another Canucks management group trying to fast-track playoffs and beyond. Try to impress the owners.

 

 

[EdgarM]

6 minutes ago, BPA said:

I hope you had this same attitude when Canucks signed LE back then.  His production fell off a cliff but he played defense and PK duties as well.

LE was similar to the Sedins, he was useless too. 

Seriously though, he was a huge anomaly in which I don't think anyone could have predicted he would drop off the cliff like that. I would say it had to do with his mental toughness though.

Some players fight through adversity and others just roll over and die. I don't think Miller is that type of player though he seems to be able to produce even when everything else around him is not doing well, like the beginning of last season?

[Baratheon]

15 minutes ago, HorvatToBaertschi said:

Yeah let’s gut our team of it’s leader, both on and off the ice because of an IF. 

Locking up a guy going in to his 30's based on a career year is a bigger IF to me.  I guess I think more highly of the rest of our team than you do.  I don't think it would "gut our team"

18 minutes ago, HorvatToBaertschi said:

Worst case, we dump his contract in the back side of his contract. Everybody does it.

Nice!  Spend more assets to get rid of the contract right when we should be spending them to improve the team.  And of course having less to spend because we didn't get something for him when we should have.

 

21 minutes ago, HorvatToBaertschi said:

Our franchise needs to win and Miller is our best player since the Sedins.

Arguably he's not even our best player right now.  He had a big year but I think you'll find plenty of support for Hughes and/or Demko.  

 

22 minutes ago, HorvatToBaertschi said:

5+ years away

That's close to a "best case" scenario.  There's a good chance that you don't get to 5 years before there's a problem.  If you flip back and actually look at the rosters teams from years past you can find WAY more players who were once very similar to JT that drop off dramatically in their 30's (early 30's in most cases).  Sure there are some outliers but that's the point.  They're outliers not the norm.  

 

There's no need to ignore history just on the hope that a career year is the new normal for JT.  Sure, a round or two of playoff experience would be nice.  Not nicer than making a run at the cup with Hughes, Demko and Petey. (All of whom already DO have playoff experience)

[RWJC]

7 minutes ago, Strawbone said:

So JT Miller will either be re-signed, traded, or walk away at the end of the season as a free agent, and nobody knows which of those is going to happen.

 

I've read all 1200 pages so you don't have to! 

Thank you! Could you also please summarize for me all the various trade proposals/packages/contract comparables and valuation of potential associated trade targets as well as their contract values/assessments by both those in the hockey biz and fans alike?

It'd be greatly appreciated!

I look forward to your 'report" in 5 years time, haha

 

Passionate fanbase. What an understatement!

[flat land fish]

38 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

This is a great point.  Not sure why people always bring up the Sedins.  Other than scoring they didn't do much and once that part of their game passed them by they couldn't do anything else.  They were never going to be 3rd line players.  Miller at least can skate very well, can play the PK and is a great faceoff man.  He also is good defensively even though some want to criticize that part of his game.  He wouldn't be on the PK and he wouldn't have gotten Selke votes last year if he wasn't good defensively.

He’s strong on the faceoff dot but tends to take lots of high risk plays offensively and turns the puck over a lot.  The Sedins were way more dominant players in their peak than Miller to the point the other team rarely had the puck when they were on the ice.  Miller’s a big dude think it’s fair to question how he will fair when he loses a step Father Time is undefeated.  If this group of players are going deep in the playoffs it’s probably petey horvat and hughes leading the charge.

[RWJC]

36 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

If you think you have a shot at the cup and you are in your window and are the current Stanley Cup champions then you will do whatever you can to take that shot.  Newhook isn't the second coming.  If Miller is on a 100+ point pace and Sakic feels he is the key to winning the cup then he will pull the trigger and trade Newhook if he has to.  Any GM would do that.

 

I don't think the MacKinnon extension has anything to do with winning the cup this year.  He will get paid regardless.  Colorado is the reigning Stanley Cup champion.  If the GM doesn't want to trade a good young player to try and win another cup then he isn't actually doing his job.  The goal is to win the cup, period.  Not try and win multiple cups years down the road.  What if MacKinnon blows out his knee?  What if they can't find a competent #1 NHL goalie?  What if Makar blows out his knee?

 

We were supposed to win multiple cups with Bure.  Then he blew out his knee and he was never the same player in Vancouver.  Then our shot at the cup also went out the window.  When you have the chance to win the cup you take the shot.

Cup winners restock for the now.

As much potential as Newhook has, he isn't replaceable nor does he factor as much into them winning another Cup as people like to hypothesize.

If anything, as posted previously here, if they were to trade for JTM (and his incredibly low cap hit - especially if we retained 50%!) it would afford Sakic the opportunity to recruit some more undervalued/low contract/moneypuck vets at TDL that will likely provide as much or more than Newhook might. 

I'm not saying this to massage the idea of Newhook being a trade target as much as I am saying the window to win in the NHL is created through proper management, timing, luck, and capitalizing on opportunities when you can. The level of competition is so strong that teams build for a 3 year window of contention. COL is in the first year of it. They will not be looking to forego opportunity to continue to success.

[EdgarM]

4 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Well, IF the Canucks win the Cup with Miller, I'll be very okay with a re-signing. No pressure. 

 

I thought for sure when this management came in, they would do things right. It would take a while, but there's a lot of mess to clean up. Some not-so-good contracts to get rid of, some older players, etc. Maybe they would try to add Draft picks and fill the prospect pool. 

 

But.....

 

to me, it looks like just another Canucks management group trying to fast-track playoffs and beyond. Try to impress the owners.

 

 

I am not sure if I see that way. I think the biggest question mark lies with Petterson. Is he ready for the #1 C job? or will he need more seasoning?

If he is ready, then Miller is irrelevant and we go Petey and Bo. If Petey is not ready, then we will need Miller and then Bo becomes irrelevant. Miller is the #1 C and Petterson is #2 until he is ready. 

With the delay in both Miller and Bo's signings, I really think this is a real concern that management must work through.

Although it would be great to have all 3 , I don't think it would work out cap wise in the long run.

[Elias Pettersson]

10 minutes ago, flat land fish said:

He’s strong on the faceoff dot but tends to take lots of high risk plays offensively and turns the puck over a lot.  The Sedins were way more dominant players in their peak than Miller to the point the other team rarely had the puck when they were on the ice.  Miller’s a big dude think it’s fair to question how he will fair when he loses a step Father Time is undefeated.  If this group of players are going deep in the playoffs it’s probably petey horvat and hughes leading the charge.

The Sedins were a pair, two players, kinda hard for one player to replicate that to be honest.  If Miller had a thing with Petey where they instinctively knew where the other one was at all times even with their eyes closed I am sure they would be as effective a duo as the Sedins.  

 

Bure was also a one man show.  He never had a top line centre to play with.  If he had had a twin centre he might have scored 80-90 goals multiple times...

[BPA]

16 minutes ago, EdgarM said:

LE was similar to the Sedins, he was useless too. 

Seriously though, he was a huge anomaly in which I don't think anyone could have predicted he would drop off the cliff like that. I would say it had to do with his mental toughness though.

Some players fight through adversity and others just roll over and die. I don't think Miller is that type of player though he seems to be able to produce even when everything else around him is not doing well, like the beginning of last season?

The thing is Miller may be wanting a retirement contract of $9M x 8yrs.  Should Canucks seriously be offering that?

 

Look at the overall body of Millers career.  Posters are citing his ppg over his 3yrs as a Canuck while ignoring his earlier years.  Last year was his career year 99pts and most likely will drop to his near ppg (70-80pts).  That’s still good but not sure if it’s worth a $9M contract.  And given his age, statistically there will be a drop in production in his latter years. Hence JR/PA not wanting to give max term (rumoured 6yrs).

 

I’m comfortable with a max $8M x 6yrs.  Unfortunately I think Miller wants max pay and term.
 

I have only seen a few handful of pro Miller camp actually post what max contact they would be willing to get Miller re-signed.  That says a lot.  Just only seen “the cap will go up”. 

[4petesake]

28 minutes ago, RWJC said:

Thank you! Could you also please summarize for me all the various trade proposals/packages/contract comparables and valuation of potential associated trade targets as well as their contract values/assessments by both those in the hockey biz and fans alike?

It'd be greatly appreciated!

I look forward to your 'report" in 5 years time, haha

 

Passionate fanbase. What an understatement!

Got you covered.