[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[aGENT]

12 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Teams make a mistake all the time of signing guys to contracts that run too late in their career for too much money. I think with the flat cap, there are a lot of teams that are starting to come around to the idea that it's not a good idea to go too long on contracts.

 

So, if Miller wanted 8.5 million, then I would say that it needs to be a 2 year contract.

 

If he wants to be playing for a number of years and wants that security as he gets older, then you do something where pay, matches what you expect to be his continuing level of production.

 

It's all give and take. 5 or 6 year deal, means that the pay at the end of the contract, comes down and you don't have trade protection at the end. So, if his production really fell off, you have a better chance of moving the contract to a cash strapped team, who can benefit from having a higher average cap hit, compared to actual cash out the door (see LE's contract)

 

Personally, I'd be completely good with something at 6 years, 40 million in total,  6.67 million cap hit, average. I think you'll notice, that even last summer, other than contracts for key defensemen, teams were not handing out really ridiculous contracts, they were keeping them reasonable. 

Problem is, that's not remotely going to happen. He's going to want something similar to Zib's $8.5x8 year (with clauses) deal.

 

If you want to bring that down to 6 years, it's going to be closer to $9.5. 4 years, probably $10+.

[stawns]

1 hour ago, VegasCanuck said:

Then, we can always move him next season at the deadline. Right now, I would focus on the hear and now. We have him for another season at 5.25 million, and the way he's playing, there is zero reason to move him, unless another team decides to overpay in a really big way.

if they don't get the deal they want, that's okish.  However, by next deadline his value wil have dropped significantly, he could get hurt, he could have an off year etc etc etc.  He is at peak value right now

[SilentSam]

18 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Top players will always get paid though, look at what Hamilton got from Jersey. If Miller goes to UFA he'll get big term and dollars if that's what he wants, teams would make it work. Vegas made Petro work.

Their would be nothing wrong with signing Miller on an 8m x 6 as long as he is tradable in years 4-5-6.

As a player he might want to have the best opportunity to win a cup, that gives him that option.. and some how that 4-5 year should be optional to him.

Its up to Miller, but we are a better team over the next 3 years with him than without.

If he signs for less than 8m, the more movement protection should be given.. 

seriously, listen to him after last nights game , he could be a great Coach one day, perhaps we groom him to that strength and opportunity too.

 

 

right now I am enjoying the growth of others with him, his leadership is rubbing off, he is himself enjoying it, it’s noteable.

 

other players can make concessions too,

are Bo and Brock really worth that much more than what they are paid now ?

Term and movability need to come not those contracts too..  and others.

 

Perhaps no one considered above average on this team needs to move..

I still hold firm on the thought of a tough skillful physical D man and one hard to play against power forward, an upgrade on Pearson,  perhaps the return of Tryamkin, today the rubble is almost worthless.. and he gets paid in that.

An upgrade at 2 positions could hold us stronger.

 

We have prospects coming that might seriously impact this club next year..

let’s not pull triggers right now, 

 

let’s just enjoy what Benning left us this season and assess in the Summer.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by SilentSam

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Hamilton is a high end RD in the NHL. He is always going to be able to get a premium rate. He was also younger when he signed his contract than Miller will be when he signs his.

 

Petro, same in Vegas, he's a high end, RD in a league where there's a shortage of qualified RD.

 

Miller is awesome, but, do you pay him at 8 or 9 million when he's 36 or 37?

 

If that's the level of commitment to keep him here, then you trade him for high-end, assets that you can build around for the next 5 or 6 years.

 

I think the Canucks keep Miller until summer and then look at what he's wanting as long-term contract and make a decision on whether we can keep him or move him. 

Once to window opens to negotiate with Miller (July 1?) we can see what he's thinking about his next contract.  Do we keep him if he will sign a longer term for lesser cap, but his total dollars is the amount he wants?  How about Miller for 8 years, but his cap is 7?  He'd be 38 when it's up though.  But the cap should go up a lot, so it might work?

He is such a multi tool player and a leader.  Who could we get to replace what he does, and what's the cost of that player?  

[VegasCanuck]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Problem is, that's not remotely going to happen. He's going to want something similar to Zib's $8.5x8 year (with clauses) deal.

 

If you want to bring that down to 6 years, it's going to be closer to $9.5. 4 years, probably $10+.

At 30 years old, I don't think he's going to be able to justify Kucherov money. Kucherov is at 9.5 million and has averaged around 1.25 - 1.4 points per game for the last 3 or 4 seasons and was 26 years old when he signed that rate, at a time when the NHL wasn't in a massive, league wide cap crunch.

 

Miller has been awesome, but his production over the past 3 seasons has averaged around 1 point per game.

 

To me, if you're looking at a long-term deal with him, taking into account that all players start to really decline around 33 - 34 years old, you're looking at 8 - 9 million for the first couple of years and then declining rate to bring your cap average down into the 6.5 - 7.2 million average, depending on whether you're pushing past 35 and up into the 36 to 37 years old.

 

If you look at Kucherov's structure, his contract wraps up, roughly when he's 33, and that year, he will be paid around 7 million per with a 9.5 cap hit.

Kucherov link: https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-kucherov

 

As good as Miller has been for us, he can't maintain this level much past 33 or 34, which means you're averaging him down.

 

If you're negotiating Miller to long-term when he's 27 or 28, sure, 8 million, even 8.5 million is fully justifiable, but we're not, we're negotiating when he's turning 30.

 

That's my take on it.

[VegasCanuck]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Once to window opens to negotiate with Miller (July 1?) we can see what he's thinking about his next contract.  Do we keep him if he will sign a longer term for lesser cap, but his total dollars is the amount he wants?  How about Miller for 8 years, but his cap is 7?  He'd be 38 when it's up though.  But the cap should go up a lot, so it might work?

He is such a multi tool player and a leader.  Who could we get to replace what he does, and what's the cost of that player?  

Could work, @Alflives , but I wouldn't go higher than 7M for him average over 8 years, and I'd really think hard about going to that. We have younger guys who we are going to be looking at locking up for 7 or 8 year terms. Personally, if we were looking at locking him up for 8 years, I'd be trying to get his average down to around 5.75M. Maybe something like:

Yr 1: 9

Yr 2: 8

Yr 3: 7

Yr 4: 6

Yr 5: 5

Yr 6: 4

Yr 7: 4

Yr 8: 3

 

46 Million commitment, 8 years, 5.75M average.

 

[BPA]

I think $8M needs to be the max for any 1 player.  That represents almost 10% of the cap.  It’s a team game and not 1 person can do it all.  Just ask McDavid.  Lol.

 

I would be OK if Miller goes for $8Mx6yrs.  Not a fan of 7-8yr contacts cuz a lot can happen. 

 

[BPA]

1 minute ago, VegasCanuck said:

Could work, @Alflives , but I wouldn't go higher than 7M for him average over 8 years, and I'd really think hard about going to that. We have younger guys who we are going to be looking at locking up for 7 or 8 year terms. Personally, if we were looking at locking him up for 8 years, I'd be trying to get his average down to around 5.75M. Maybe something like:

Yr 1: 9

Yr 2: 8

Yr 3: 7

Yr 4: 6

Yr 5: 5

Yr 6: 4

Yr 7: 4

Yr 8: 3

 

46 Million commitment, 8 years, 5.75M average.

 

Don’t think you can structure the payout that way anymore.  Think there was a change to the CBA.

[mll]

1 minute ago, VegasCanuck said:

Could work, @Alflives , but I wouldn't go higher than 7M for him average over 8 years, and I'd really think hard about going to that. We have younger guys who we are going to be looking at locking up for 7 or 8 year terms. Personally, if we were looking at locking him up for 8 years, I'd be trying to get his average down to around 5.75M. Maybe something like:

Yr 1: 9

Yr 2: 8

Yr 3: 7

Yr 4: 6

Yr 5: 5

Yr 6: 4

Yr 7: 4

Yr 8: 3

 

46 Million commitment, 8 years, 5.75M average.

 

Zibanejad was drafted the same year as Miller and will be starting an 8.5M x 8 year contract next season.  

[Coconuts]

25 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Is our window for competing for a Cup now, like Vegas'?  Miller will be 30 when he's negotiating his next contract.  He's a fantastic player right now, but will his skills translate into his 30's?  Is he going to be a guy we can afford to over pay (8 on the cap) while we build around Demko, Petey, and Quinn?  

Miller sure is a heck of a good player though, so this is going to be a key move for JR and PA.

I don't see us as contenders over the next few years, I've made no bones about that. I'm fully on board with moving him and have been for months.

 

I'd build around the younger core, not him.

 

25 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Hamilton is a high end RD in the NHL. He is always going to be able to get a premium rate. He was also younger when he signed his contract than Miller will be when he signs his.

 

Petro, same in Vegas, he's a high end, RD in a league where there's a shortage of qualified RD.

 

Miller is awesome, but, do you pay him at 8 or 9 million when he's 36 or 37?

 

If that's the level of commitment to keep him here, then you trade him for high-end, assets that you can build around for the next 5 or 6 years.

 

I think the Canucks keep Miller until summer and then look at what he's wanting as long-term contract and make a decision on whether we can keep him or move him. 

Granted, but this has come up before. How often do forwards of his caliber hit UFA? The last two to so were Duchene and Panarin, he'll get more than Duchene via UFA, I'd pit him more in the middle, possibly closer to 9 or a shade over at his high end. The Panarin pay is nuts.

 

I'll be surprised if Miller doesn't ask for max term wherever he signs, I don't see 5-6 years being realistic.

 

15 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

Their would be nothing wrong with signing Miller on an 8m x 6 as long as he is tradable in years 4-5-6.

As a player he might want to have the best opportunity to win a cup, that gives him that option.. and some how that 4-5 year should be optional to him.

Its up to Miller, but we are a better team over the next 3 years with him than without.

If he signs for less than 8m, the more movement protection should be given.. 

seriously, listen to him after last nights game , he could be a great Coach one day, perhaps we groom him to that strength and opportunity too.

 

 

right now I am enjoying the growth of others with him, his leadership is rubbing off, he is himself enjoying it, it’s noteable.

 

other players can make concessions too,

are Bo and Brock really worth that much more than what they are paid now ?

Term and movability need to come not those contracts too..  and others.

 

Perhaps no one considered above average on this team needs to move..

I still hold firm on the thought of a tough skillful physical D man and one hard to play against power forward, an upgrade on Pearson,  perhaps the return of Tryamkin, today the rubble is almost worthless.. and he gets paid in that.

 

We have prospects coming that might seriously impact this club next year..

let’s not pull triggers right now, 

 

let’s just enjoy what Benning left us this season and assess in the Summer.

 

 

 

 

I see the term and dollars amounts being more, I don't see why he'd forgo his biggest opportunity to cash in.

 

Less than 8 would be big for any team, but I'd be verrrrry surprised. A more competitive team could ship someone out to fit that.

 

Which prospects? Because outside of Klimovich I wouldn't say we've got blue chip guys and he's likely at least a couple years away given how young and raw he is. We've got some interesting prospects but I wouldn't say our pool is great.

 

Maybe he takes less to chase a cup, but here? There are better places to do that imo. I'm a Canucks fan, but I don't see us contending sooner than later. I'd love to be wrong but I don't see it. I think management has some serious tinkering to do and I'm curious as to how they go about it, they've thrown some shade at Benning's work.

 

Brock is a tough one because of his QA but he's been full value in the past, Horvat is full value right now imo, it depends on what he wants but his comparable probably make more towards 6-7? Just a guess on my part though, I'd have to look.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Coconuts

[Nucker 67]

Re-signing Miller - say for 5 more years, the Canucks would have him for the next 6 seasons.

 

That would be 6 more seasons of Miller leading the way with players like Pettersson, Podkolzin, etc as top 6 support, and possibly playoffs every season. Once the 6 years is over, Pettersson and Podkolzin etc. will be in their prime (with new prospects developing and playing behind them), and then Petey and Podkolzin etc. will take the reins and continue being a playoff team every year.  

 

Be great if they could re-sign Horvat too, at a reasonable price.

 

I think if they let Miller go, they will revert back to that boring team with no identity, the young guys in over their heads struggling to make playoffs.  They need Miller..

[VegasCanuck]

Just now, BPA said:

Don’t think you can structure the payout that way anymore.  Think there was a change to the CBA.

You can still do it, but there are restrictions on how much you can reduce a contract in final years. So, with Luongo's contract, his last 3 years, his salary was 1.618 million, 1 million, 1 million.

 

You can still do thinks like we did with LE, where he's being paid a much lower rate for this, his final year of contract than he was for his first 3. The real bulk of his pay happened in the first 3 years.

 

If a player retires at 35 on a contract that runs till he's 38, you're still going to deal with a cap recapture hit for them until the contract expires, unless you're Chicago and can come up with some weird puck rubber allergy for the player, forcing him into LTIR. 

[Coconuts]

13 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Re-signing Miller - say for 5 more years, the Canucks would have him for the next 6 seasons.

 

That would be 6 more seasons of Miller leading the way with players like Pettersson, Podkolzin, etc as top 6 support, and possibly playoffs every season. Once the 6 years is over, Pettersson and Podkolzin etc. will be in their prime (with new prospects developing and playing behind them), and then Petey and Podkolzin etc. will take the reins and continue being a playoff team every year.  

 

Be great if they could re-sign Horvat too, at a reasonable price.

 

I think if they let Miller go, they will revert back to that boring team with no identity, the young guys in over their heads struggling to make playoffs.  They need Miller..

But why would Miller, at the peak of his powers, forgo extra years and 10M+ in earnings to do the Canucks a solid? Why would a guy knowingly pass on his biggest chance ever to cash in for a team he's played on for three seasons? He doesn't have deep roots here, we're his third team, why would we get that sort of sweetheart deal from him?

 

I just don't see it.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Coconuts

[VegasCanuck]

10 minutes ago, mll said:

Zibanejad was drafted the same year as Miller and will be starting an 8.5M x 8 year contract next season.  

His new contract is starting a year earlier than Miller's will, and arguably, his production over the last 3 years, has been higher than Miller's. If you look at Zibanejad's career production, he's scored about 70 goals more than Miller in relatively similar period of time. So, I'm thinking the basis of my math still holds, even if we look at boosting Miller up to an 8 year average of around 6.5 million to compensate.

 

[aGENT]

22 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

At 30 years old, I don't think he's going to be able to justify Kucherov money. Kucherov is at 9.5 million and has averaged around 1.25 - 1.4 points per game for the last 3 or 4 seasons and was 26 years old when he signed that rate, at a time when the NHL wasn't in a massive, league wide cap crunch.

 

Miller has been awesome, but his production over the past 3 seasons has averaged around 1 point per game.

 

To me, if you're looking at a long-term deal with him, taking into account that all players start to really decline around 33 - 34 years old, you're looking at 8 - 9 million for the first couple of years and then declining rate to bring your cap average down into the 6.5 - 7.2 million average, depending on whether you're pushing past 35 and up into the 36 to 37 years old.

 

If you look at Kucherov's structure, his contract wraps up, roughly when he's 33, and that year, he will be paid around 7 million per with a 9.5 cap hit.

Kucherov link: https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-kucherov

 

As good as Miller has been for us, he can't maintain this level much past 33 or 34, which means you're averaging him down.

 

If you're negotiating Miller to long-term when he's 27 or 28, sure, 8 million, even 8.5 million is fully justifiable, but we're not, we're negotiating when he's turning 30.

 

That's my take on it.

Kutch is taking a contender and low tax location discount. Look at Zib's contract on the Rangers. They're VERY close player comparables. That's what we're looking at for Miller, if not more. There's zero, I mean ZERO chance he signing a 6 year deal for anything under $8m, and anything near $8m would be a HUGE discount.

[SilentSam]

19 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I don't see us as contenders over the next few years, I've made no bones about that. I'm fully on board with moving him and have been for months.

 

I'd build around the younger core, not him.

 

Granted, but this has come up before. How often do forwards of his caliber hit UFA? The last two to so were Duchene and Panarin, he'll get more than Duchene via UFA, I'd pit him more in the middle, possibly closer to 9 or a shade over at his high end. The Panarin pay is nuts.

 

I'll be surprised if Miller doesn't ask for max term wherever he signs, I don't see 5-6 years being realistic.

 

I see the term and dollars amounts being more, I don't see why he'd forgo his biggest opportunity to cash in.

 

Less than 8 would be big for any team, but I'd be verrrrry surprised. A more competitive team could ship someone out to fit that.

 

Which prospects? Because outside of Klimovich I wouldn't say we've got blue chip guys and he's likely at least a couple years away given how young and raw he is. We've got some interesting prospects but I wouldn't say our pool is great.

 

Maybe he takes less to chase a cup, but here? There are better places to do that imo. I'm a Canucks fan, but I don't see us contending sooner than later. I'd love to be wrong but I don't see it. I think management has some serious tinkering to do and I'm curious as to how they go about it, they've thrown some shade at Benning's work.

 

Brock is a tough one because of his QA but he's been full value in the past, Horvat is full value right now imo, it depends on what he wants but his comparable probably make more towards 6-7? Just a guess on my part though, I'd have to look.

I still see Podz as a prospect, as well as Hogz.(developing)

yes add Klimo,  

Linus Karlsson :

 

 

Aidan Mcdonaugh, Victoria Persson, Joni Jurmo.. there are others..

it’s worth your while to find video on them from within the past year.

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by SilentSam

[VegasCanuck]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Kutch is taking a contender and low tax location discount. Look at Zib's contract on the Rangers. They're VERY close player comparables. That's what we're looking at for Miller, if not more. There's zero, I mean ZERO chance he signing a 6 year deal for anything under $8m, and anything near $8m would be a HUGE discount.

Time will tell. Zib has been a much more productive player over the course of his career. Almost 70 goals more productive.

 

My point is, I think Miller is worth 8.5 - 9.5 million, up till he's about 32 - 33. Then there's the fall off that will happen.

 

If the requirement from Miller's camp is 8.5 - 9.5 million for 6 to 8 years, then you trade him and move on.

 

Are there GM's out there who would be willing to pay him that knowing they will have a problem 4 or 5 years down the road? History says, ABSOLUTELY!

 

[mll]

4 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

You can still do it, but there are restrictions on how much you can reduce a contract in final years. So, with Luongo's contract, his last 3 years, his salary was 1.618 million, 1 million, 1 million.

 

You can still do thinks like we did with LE, where he's being paid a much lower rate for this, his final year of contract than he was for his first 3. The real bulk of his pay happened in the first 3 years.

 

If a player retires at 35 on a contract that runs till he's 38, you're still going to deal with a cap recapture hit for them until the contract expires, unless you're Chicago and can come up with some weird puck rubber allergy for the player, forcing him into LTIR. 

 

 

The structure of the deal that you are proposing is not possible.  In a front loaded deal the lowest salary can't be less than 50% of the highest. 

 

There is no such thing as recapture penalties on contracts signed since 2013 regardless of the age of the player.  There are only 4 active recapture contracts left - Quick, Crosby, Carter and Keith. 

 

As for age 35 contract - it's only if the player is already 35 when his contract starts.  Also they no longer automatically stay on the books - depends on the structure of the contract.  They've changed that rule in the CBA MOU.   

 

[VegasCanuck]

Just now, mll said:

 

 

The structure of the deal that you are proposing is not possible.  In a front loaded deal the lowest salary can't be less than 50% of the highest. 

 

There is no such thing as recapture penalties on contracts signed since 2013 regardless of the age of the player.  There are only 4 active recapture contracts left - Quick, Crosby, Carter and Keith. 

 

As for age 35 contract - it's only if the player is already 35 when his contract starts.  Also they no longer automatically stay on the books - depends on the structure of the contract.  They've changed that rule in the CBA MOU.   

 

I was actually searching for that, I believe that you are exactly correct. I think the only thing that was left as a possible way around that was that it's total bonus and salary, so if a player near the end of his contract is owed total of 5 million, with 3.5 of it being in signing bonus, a team could pay the bonus and then trade the player, leaving a cash strapped team like Arizona to only pay the 1.5 million remaining for a significantly higher cap hit.

[Nucker 67]

14 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

But why would Miller, at the peak of his powers, forgo extra years and 10M+ in earnings to do the Canucks a solid? Why would a guy knowingly pass on his biggest chance ever to cash in for a team he's played on for three seasons? He doesn't have deep roots here, we're his third team, why would we get that sort of sweetheart deal from him?

 

I just don't see it.

Miller just wants to win, and I believe that he think he can win here, now that the Aquas hire an experienced president and improved management and coaching. Six months ago he may have wanted out, but things have changed. 

 

There is hope. I think Miller loves playing for the Canucks and being the guy they rely on. He relishes this role. If he joined a contender, he'd be just another middle 6 forward on a strange team in an ugly city. No, I think he wants to be here and win here, he'd be a hero.