[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[aGENT]

26 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

Early into next season EP will be aged 24, QH will be 23, and Demko will be 27.

 

I'm interested in:

 

- What age bracket do you define as "prime years" for an NHL player?

- When do think we should target our contending window to open?

Prime for forwards 24, D 25. Peaks at 27 and 28 respectively.

 

Goalies prime and peaks are later.

[aGENT]

29 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

You really have some kind of fantasy going on that guys like Hughes and Demko are going to stick around if we are still rebuilding after 4 years. 
 

Nobody suggested we'd be rebuilding for 4 more years (or rebuilding at all for that matter).

 

29 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

What evidence do you have that we will actually be competitive once Miller is traded?

As much as you have that we will, doubling the salary of a soon to decline player, with major structural and succession issues that will be made that much harder to rectify due to said salary.

 

29 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 What are we getting for Miller in the summer?

Stuff. Hopefully not of the Virtanen variety.

 

29 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

How do you even know how Miller is going to perform 4 years from now?  And even if he is declining does it really matter?  Our window would be closed anyways. 

Hughes and Petey at their peaks.... Sorry guys, window's closed!

 

29 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

There is no guarantee that trading your leading scorer and a top 13 scorer in the entire NHL is actually going to help Your club be competitive 3 years from now. And there is no guarantee those guys you are saying we are building around will even be here 4 years from now. 

Nor is there that any guarantee that paying a 30 year old, ten percent + of the cap for nearly a decade will either. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by aGENT

[Coconuts]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Hansen played with the twins who were given 4 year extensions at age 34 so I guess he thinks the same of their contracts as well. 
 

It’s impossible to trade for a 95 point player. There are only around a dozen players in the entire NHL who will hit 95 points. The other 11 are literally all superstars who are looking at contending for all of the major trophies. 
 

Nobody knows what will happen to Miller at age 33. He could fall off a cliff. Or he could hit 90 points consistently for several years. We will never get equal value back in a trade. A first round pick and two top prospects may end up all being 3rd line players or bottom pairing Dmen. 

Yes, but what the twins accomplished in Vancouver and what they mean to this city and team are something else entirely. Miller does not even begin to enter that realm. The Sedin experience was a once in a franchise occurrence and we were especially fortunate that we had two of them. The twins taking those contracts was something else entirely, and done under different management. If I'm not mistaken Linden was still around too? Negotiations with the twins, and their having been what they were while spending their entire career here, there's nothing else in the history of this franchise that's comparable. 

 

Comparing Miller and the Sedin's is a false equivalency. They also took four year deals that walked them right to retirement, Miller is not going to be taking a four year deal at thirty years old. What did Hansen think of those deals? Well, we don't know, but the twins weren't ever going anywhere else. 

 

Impossible? You might be in for a surprise then. Equal? We'll see, that depends on what his value actually is. What we think his value is, what management thinks his value is, what Miller and his agent think his value is, and what other GM's think it is are likely very different things, and that value is likely always shifting. 

 

We'd also get cap space, having decided not not spend what'll likely be 8.5-9M+ on Miller on top of whatever we actually get in return. That's significant. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Coconuts

[JamesB]

5 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Early into next season EP will be aged 24, QH will be 23, and Demko will be 27.

 

I'm interested in:

 

- What age bracket do you define as "prime years" for an NHL player?

- When do think we should target our contending window to open?

 

4 hours ago, aGENT said:

Prime for forwards 24, D 25. Peaks at 27 and 28 respectively.

 

Goalies prime and peaks are later.

Thought I would add to @aGENT 's response. 

 

1. Age and performance in the NHL has been studied a lot and is well understand, including pretty much every GM. (Benning was one of the few GMs' who did not seem to understand the research.)

 

2. @aGENT is correct about the starting point. There is quite a lot of individual variation but, on average, forwards are at about 90% of peak performance by 24, peak at about 27 and are still  at about 90% of peak at age 31, but typically they decline significantly after that.  If you sign forwards at 30 or over 30 to long term contract on the assumption that they will continue at their current level, you are making a big mistake (think Erickson, Beagle, Roussel). And expensive UFAs are, more often than not, a bad deal anyway because of the winner's curse. (The over-optimistic GM is the guy who "wins" the bidding war for a UFA.)

 

3. D's peak a bit later, as aGENT says, and hold their near-peak performance longer, typically to something like 33 or 34. While the OEL contract has a cap hit that is too high, he will still be a good D for another 4 or 5 years as he is only 30 now.  

 

4. If the Canucks re-sign Miller for something like 8 to 9 million for something like 5 or 6 years they will be investing a lot in a depreciating asset. I think that would reduce their chances of building a Cup contender.

 

5. I think the Canucks should expect to be pretty good next year but should target the year after that. They will have Demko, Hughes, Pettersson, Garland, Pearson, and OEL on their current contracts and, on average, that group will probably improve over the next two years as I would not expect much decline from Pearson and OEL in that time. 

 

6. To make that work they would need to trade Miller for good current player and a first round pick -- a package that would not be as valuable as Miller would be next year given a cap hit of 5.2 million but that would be more valuable two years from now when Miller's cap hit will probably go to something north of 8 million and his play will probably be worse than it is now.   

 

7. It would also be important to sign Horvat for something reasonable. He is the kind of guy who values loyalty and, if the team is good, would probably re-sign for a reasonable amount. 

 

8. Podkolzin is a good young player who should improve.  I am less sure about Hoglander but he could improve as well.

 

9. Boeser is a wild card. If the Canucks could trade him for good 3C on a cheaper contract, that could help. Or maybe the Canucks take him to arbitration, get a salary of 6.375 for him (equal to 85% of his QO) and he plays well. 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by JamesB

[Coconuts]

3 hours ago, JM_ said:

you mean how long we have until Demko is a UFA?

 

who cares if Miller declines 5 years from now. We'll be rebuilding again then anyway. 

I care, because that likely still leaves 2-3 years left on his deal and that's an issue. I'm also not sold on our being rebuilding then. It also gives us a huge cap headache during a time period where Podz, Hughes, Pettersson, and Demko should still be near the top of their game. 

 

I've said it repeatedly, trading Miller doesn't mean a teardown will ensue, I don't see why we couldn't be competitive as early as next season without him. 

[qwijibo]

43 minutes ago, JamesB said:

 

Thought I would add to @aGENT 's response. 

 

1. Age and performance in the NHL has been studied a lot and is well understand, including pretty much every GM. (Benning was one of the few GMs' who did not seem to understand the research.)

 

2. @aGENT is correct about the starting point. There is quite a lot of individual variation but, on average, forwards are at about 90% of peak performance by 24, peak at about 27 and are still  at about 90% of peak at age 31, but typically they decline significantly after that.  If you sign forwards at 30 or over 30 to long term contract on the assumption that they will continue at their current level, you are making a big mistake (think Erickson, Beagle, Roussel). And expensive UFAs are, more often than not, a bad deal anyway because of the winner's curse. (The over-optimistic GM is the guy who "wins" the bidding war for a UFA.)

 

3. D's peak a bit later, as aGENT says, and hold their near-peak performance longer, typically to something like 33 or 34. While the OEL contract has a cap hit that is too high, he will still be a good D for another 4 or 5 years as he is only 30 now.  

 

4. If the Canucks re-sign Miller for something like 8 to 9 million for something like 5 or 6 years they will be investing a lot in a depreciating asset. I think that would reduce their chances of building a Cup contender.

 

5. I think the Canucks should expect to be pretty good next year but should target the year after that. They will have Demko, Hughes, Pettersson, Garland, Pearson, and OEL on their current contracts and, on average, that group will probably improve over the next two years as I would not expect much decline from Pearson and OEL in that time. 

 

6. To make that work they would need to trade Miller for good current player and a first round pick -- a package that would not be as valuable as Miller would be next year given a cap hit of 5.2 million but that would be more valuable two years from now when Miller's cap hit will probably go to something north of 8 million and his play will probably be worse than it is now.   

 

7. It would also be important to sign Horvat for something reasonable. He is the kind of guy who values loyalty and, if the team is good, would probably re-sign for a reasonable amount. 

 

8. Podkolzin is a good young player who should improve.  I am less sure about Hoglander but he could improve as well.

 

9. Boeser is a wild card. If the Canucks could trade him for good 3C on a cheaper contract, that could help. Or maybe the Canucks take him to arbitration, get a salary of 8.375 for him (equal to 85% of his QO) and he plays well. 

 

 

 

If the team takes Boeser to arbitration and win their case you can pretty much guarantee he’ll be gone via UFA in 2 years (or by trade sooner) 

[BigTramFan]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

Prime for forwards 24, D 25. Peaks at 27 and 28 respectively.

 

Goalies prime and peaks are later.

 

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

 

Thought I would add to @aGENT 's response. 

 

1. Age and performance in the NHL has been studied a lot and is well understand, including pretty much every GM. (Benning was one of the few GMs' who did not seem to understand the research.)

 

2. @aGENT is correct about the starting point. There is quite a lot of individual variation but, on average, forwards are at about 90% of peak performance by 24, peak at about 27 and are still  at about 90% of peak at age 31, but typically they decline significantly after that.  If you sign forwards at 30 or over 30 to long term contract on the assumption that they will continue at their current level, you are making a big mistake (think Erickson, Beagle, Roussel). And expensive UFAs are, more often than not, a bad deal anyway because of the winner's curse. (The over-optimistic GM is the guy who "wins" the bidding war for a UFA.)

Thanks for the detailed responses. But missed the most important question: When do you think we target opening our contending window?

[BPA]

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

 

Thought I would add to @aGENT 's response. 

 

1. Age and performance in the NHL has been studied a lot and is well understand, including pretty much every GM. (Benning was one of the few GMs' who did not seem to understand the research.)

 

2. @aGENT is correct about the starting point. There is quite a lot of individual variation but, on average, forwards are at about 90% of peak performance by 24, peak at about 27 and are still  at about 90% of peak at age 31, but typically they decline significantly after that.  If you sign forwards at 30 or over 30 to long term contract on the assumption that they will continue at their current level, you are making a big mistake (think Erickson, Beagle, Roussel). And expensive UFAs are, more often than not, a bad deal anyway because of the winner's curse. (The over-optimistic GM is the guy who "wins" the bidding war for a UFA.)

 

3. D's peak a bit later, as aGENT says, and hold their near-peak performance longer, typically to something like 33 or 34. While the OEL contract has a cap hit that is too high, he will still be a good D for another 4 or 5 years as he is only 30 now.  

 

4. If the Canucks re-sign Miller for something like 8 to 9 million for something like 5 or 6 years they will be investing a lot in a depreciating asset. I think that would reduce their chances of building a Cup contender.

 

5. I think the Canucks should expect to be pretty good next year but should target the year after that. They will have Demko, Hughes, Pettersson, Garland, Pearson, and OEL on their current contracts and, on average, that group will probably improve over the next two years as I would not expect much decline from Pearson and OEL in that time. 

 

6. To make that work they would need to trade Miller for good current player and a first round pick -- a package that would not be as valuable as Miller would be next year given a cap hit of 5.2 million but that would be more valuable two years from now when Miller's cap hit will probably go to something north of 8 million and his play will probably be worse than it is now.   

 

7. It would also be important to sign Horvat for something reasonable. He is the kind of guy who values loyalty and, if the team is good, would probably re-sign for a reasonable amount. 

 

8. Podkolzin is a good young player who should improve.  I am less sure about Hoglander but he could improve as well.

 

9. Boeser is a wild card. If the Canucks could trade him for good 3C on a cheaper contract, that could help. Or maybe the Canucks take him to arbitration, get a salary of 8.375 for him (equal to 85% of his QO) and he plays well. 

 

 

 

You got your number mixed up for Boeser.  From your text it should be 6.375 not what you wrote 8.375.

[BPA]

1 hour ago, qwijibo said:

If the team takes Boeser to arbitration and win their case you can pretty much guarantee he’ll be gone via UFA in 2 years (or by trade sooner) 

Well from that Trade Boeser thread…some posters are willing to let him walk as a UFA anyways.   Some posters think Boeser worth as only a 3rd round pick.  So to them…it wouldn’t matter as they want him gone pronto.

[N4ZZY]

3 hours ago, aGENT said:

Prime for forwards 24, D 25. Peaks at 27 and 28 respectively.

 

Goalies prime and peaks are later.

so Petey, Hughes and Demko will be essentially in their prime years of their career, and here we are, nowhere close to being a contender. Yeah, current management has a lot to say to these guys on the roster. Me thinks there’s going to be a huge turnover this off-season. 

 

[N4ZZY]

1 hour ago, BPA said:

Well from that Trade Boeser thread…some posters are willing to let him walk as a UFA anyways.   Some posters think Boeser worth as only a 3rd round pick.  So to them…it wouldn’t matter as they want him gone pronto.

Boeser worth a 3rd? That’s insane, whoever thinks that is bananas. 

 

 

[JM_]

11 hours ago, aGENT said:

The team can't contend as presently constructed, certainly not while near doubling Miller's salary (on a depreciating asset, yay!), and Petey and Hughes aren't even in their primes yet.

 

You're dooming us to mediocrity in the near term, and a rebuild right when our two best players not named Demko are at their peak. 

 

 

 

 

meh, you're overly dramatic already. You make it sound like keeping a ppg C is the end of the world. 

[JM_]

10 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Our window is 4 years. After that all bets are off as Demko becomes a UFA and Hughes will follow a year later. If we are still rebuilding after 4 years these guys are as good as gone. 
 

With Miller around it does allow us to compete over the next 4 years. We are not replacing a 95 point player in any Miller trade. If anything his value has dropped since the deadline and will only drop further the longer we wait to trade him. 
 

We can clear enough cap to be competitive by trading Boeser , Myers and even Garlamd if we have too. Cheap wingers are easier to find than centres and we do have a couple wingers already in the system who can push for spots with the big club. 
 

If Miller does get traded then there is no guarantee we will be competitive at all.  There shouldn’t be a problem giving Miller a deal similar to Zibanejad. 8.5x7 will be fine as an extension in the summer. 
 

Trade Boeser for a RHD and sign Kuzmenko in the summer. Trade Myers if we need to and sign one of Manson or Zadorov in the summer to get bigger and meaner on the back end. 
 

With Petey back to playing at an elite level this team is closer than some people think. With Petey-Miller-BO we probably have the best 1-2-3 centre punch in the entire NHL. 

this is it. In all these "step back" scenarios people automatically assume that Bo and Demko will be sticking around. 

[JM_]

9 hours ago, Coconuts said:

I care, because that likely still leaves 2-3 years left on his deal and that's an issue. I'm also not sold on our being rebuilding then. It also gives us a huge cap headache during a time period where Podz, Hughes, Pettersson, and Demko should still be near the top of their game. 

 

I've said it repeatedly, trading Miller doesn't mean a teardown will ensue, I don't see why we couldn't be competitive as early as next season without him. 

how many ppg C's are there out there? not many, and assuming that he can be easily replaced is a mistake imo. We're certainly not going to do that getting back a 1st, Chytil and Lundquist, e.g. 

 

So we'll just have to wait and see what the big brains in management decide this team is. Either way, 1/2 the fanbase will be upset  

[Nucker 67]

Trade Miller, Boeser and Garland for 2023 Draft picks.  Run with Horvat and Petey leading the team, bring in some cheap, quality support.  If they finish near the bottom next year, Canucks have lots of good Draft picks. They need a Top 3 player.  

[JM_]

7 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Trade Miller, Boeser and Garland for 2023 Draft picks.  Run with Horvat and Petey leading the team, bring in some cheap, quality support.  If they finish near the bottom next year, Canucks have lots of good Draft picks. They need a Top 3 player.  

if we finish near the bottom, why would Bo stay? he's a UFA, likely the top C available. 

[aGENT]

8 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

 

Thanks for the detailed responses. But missed the most important question: When do you think we target opening our contending window?

2-7 years is the meat of our window IMO.

[aGENT]

30 minutes ago, JM_ said:

meh, you're overly dramatic already. You make it sound like keeping a ppg C is the end of the world. 

No, overly dramatic is declaring we'd need a rebuild because we'll have to give Demko a raise, or find a replacement, in 5 years, with a team full of guys in their prime/peaks...

[aGENT]

26 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Trade Miller, Boeser and Garland for 2023 Draft picks.  Run with Horvat and Petey leading the team, bring in some cheap, quality support.  If they finish near the bottom next year, Canucks have lots of good Draft picks. They need a Top 3 player.  

Unlikely the teams in the top 5, maybe 10 that would make acquiring those picks worthwhile, would be interested in those players, for those picks, at this time.

 

We also already have a lot of good pieces in place to build around.

 

The team needs surgery, not amputation.

[Nucker 67]

21 minutes ago, JM_ said:

if we finish near the bottom, why would Bo stay? he's a UFA, likely the top C available. 

Why wouldn't he stay?  He's got great character, he's the captain. This is his team. Why would he want to leave?  He'd like to win in VAN, as the captain.