The Contending Window for this team is the next 4 years and planning should be for that period

[stawns]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

Outlier or first peak season in his prime?  There's a significant difference.  

So you're saying he's going to start declining then?

 

Edited April 24, 2022 by stawns

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

So you're saying he's going to start declining then?

Not necessarily.  This could be his first year in his prime.  I mean, its literally a breakout year.  By definition, breakout is the first year.  He could find another level next year or the year after and it wouldn't surprise me.

If he continues playing with Podkolzin and he progresses in his development, there's a possibility Miller's numbers will climb a bit further.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Lol you still haven't come up with a strong case against it.  You just keep trying to generalize the population and thinking that is the best way to compare.  Even your wife example is completely incorrect. 

Against what?!  Some cherry picked data with no meaningful correlation beyond what you've imagined? Age related decline has pretty well studied and accepted. Miller is not a unique and beautiful butterfly. Yelling at that cloud isn't changing that. 

 

Planning that he's an outlier isn't planning, it's hoping. 

[HKSR]

Just now, aGENT said:

Against what?!  Some cherry picked data with no meaningful correlation beyond what you've imagined? Age related decline has pretty well studied and accepted. Miller is not a unique and beautiful butterfly. Yelling at that cloud isn't changing that. 

 

Planning that he's an outlier isn't planning, it's hoping. 

I give up.  It's like trying to explain logic to a toddler.  

 

You keep on comparing one player to all players in the history of the NHL.  Heck, you mind as well include goalies too.  They're people after all.  Don't forget the coaches and GMs.  

[aGENT]

12 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I give up.  It's like trying to explain logic to a toddler.  

 

You keep on comparing one player to all players in the history of the NHL.  Heck, you mind as well include goalies too.  They're people after all.  Don't forget the coaches and GMs.  

Yes, large sample size vs small, cherry picked sample that suits precisely what you're looking for. It's hilarious that you don't even see your own bias

 

And name calling...tsk, tsk. I thought you your opposed to such crude behavior.

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yes, large sample size vs small, cherry picked sample that suits precisely what you're looking for. It's hilarious that you don't even see your own bias

 

And name calling...tsk, tsk. I thought you your opposed to such crude behavior.

A sample is useless if it's not representative of what is being looked at.  If I want to determine the prevalence of a characteristic in pregnant women, would I include all people? Or just pregnant women?  Your logic is so incredibly flawed, but it doesn't seem like I can get you to understand,  so I'm moving on.

[aGENT]

44 minutes ago, HKSR said:

A sample is useless if it's not representative of what is being looked at.  If I want to determine the prevalence of a characteristic in pregnant women, would I include all people? Or just pregnant women?  Your logic is so incredibly flawed, but it doesn't seem like I can get you to understand,  so I'm moving on.

Yeah. NHL forwards. Not pregnant NHL forwards.

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yeah. NHL forwards. Not pregnant NHL forwards.

You still don't see it when it's right in front of your face....

 

By your definition, you would be comparing the pregnant women to all women whether they are pregnant or not.  Even though you were trying to determine a characteristic of pregnant women only.

 

In the Miller example, even though only 23 players since 2010 have done what he's done this year, you are choosing to compare him to the 1000s of forwards that have played since 2010.  

 

You seriously don't see that eh?  I'd almost think you're trolling at this point... 

[*Buzzsaw*]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

How's that St Louis style miracle run to the cup coming Sam? *Checks score board* Oh 

Why don't you go cheer for Calgary or Boston?

[*Buzzsaw*]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Yes, large sample size vs small, cherry picked sample that suits precisely what you're looking for. It's hilarious that you don't even see your own bias

 

And name calling...tsk, tsk. I thought you your opposed to such crude behavior.

You're a Calgary/Toronto/Deadmonton troll.

[aGENT]

30 minutes ago, HKSR said:

You still don't see it when it's right in front of your face....

 

By your definition, you would be comparing the pregnant women to all women whether they are pregnant or not.  Even though you were trying to determine a characteristic of pregnant women only.

 

In the Miller example, even though only 23 players since 2010 have done what he's done this year, you are choosing to compare him to the 1000s of forwards that have played since 2010.  

 

You seriously don't see that eh?  I'd almost think you're trolling at this point... 

There's no correlation to that and the ability to defy age related decline. You're making a massive claim on nothing more than your own cherry picked bias and assumptions.

[aGENT]

11 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

You're a Calgary/Toronto/Deadmonton troll.

You got me! 

[wai_lai416]

21 hours ago, deus.ex.makina said:

Garland Miller Podlokzin

Pettersson Horvat Boeser

Pearson xxx Hoglander

Highmore Lammikko Chiasson 

Lockwood

 

OEL Myers

Hughes Schenn

Dermott zzz

Rathbone

 

Demko

Martin

coach Boudreau 

these roster is already good.

 

now add a speedy gifted 3C and a top 4 Def to play with Hughes, using Myers Cap.

 

Hughes zzz 

OEL Dermott

Rathbone Schenn 

get ride of the 2 mistcasts : save 5.1

Poolman 2.5M

Dickinson 2.6M

 

Let them fly : save 1,9M

let Hunt goes. 800k
Let Sutter retires 1.125M

so 7 M to re-sign the following :

sign Miller 8,8 x 5 up 3,6

sign Boeser 6,9 x 5  up 1.1

sign Highmore 1,2 x 2 up 500k

sign Lammikko 1 x 2 up 250k

sign Chiasson 1 x 1 up 250k

Re-signing costs ups: under 6M

 

we still have to sign our 3C and our top4 def, but we should not be that bad cap wise. 

 

living in a fantasy world where all the bad caps just magically disappear and teams lining up to help us out?? literally no one is going to touch poolman dickinson or myers without us adding heavy.. and we really dont have the assets to give up to rid bad contracts as we already given away to rid contracts?

[Kevin Biestra]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Not necessarily.  This could be his first year in his prime.  I mean, its literally a breakout year.  By definition, breakout is the first year.  He could find another level next year or the year after and it wouldn't surprise me.

If he continues playing with Podkolzin and he progresses in his development, there's a possibility Miller's numbers will climb a bit further.

 

Could be.  I mean...that was the exact trajectory for Henrik and Daniel Sedin.  And Brad Marchand and Brent Burns.

 

Of course we've seen the one massive year and then back to earth as well...Dennis Maruk, Gary Leeman, Jonathan Cheechoo, Adam Graves...

[Vinny in Vancouver]

I'm very curious to hear whether Rutherford and Allvin have changed their minds on their original estimate of when this team will be competitive - 2 years before the Canucks are competitive. Here's the full quote: "There’s a lot of good teams in this league. If you look at the teams that did a total rebuild, it’s nice to see those teams doing well now, but everybody forgets about the four or five years they had to go through — tough years — to get there. I would like to think with the players we have that this team can be retooled and that we can get it to a point that we get more comfortable over a two year period that we can get it to contend again, but I can’t sit here and guarantee that that’s how long it’s gonna take. Sometimes you get some good luck on some players where you make a move and sometimes it doesn’t work out.”

Edited April 24, 2022 by Vinny in Vancouver

[Coconuts]

4 hours ago, HKSR said:

Thornton had 82pts in 82gms at 37 years old.

 

Bergeron is 36 and was on a 65pt pace.  Not much different than his career totals.

 

Getzlaf has fallen down to 50 to 60 pts, but is retiring, which is a very likely situation for Miller once he hits 37 or 38.  When I did the research, the majority of the comparables retired by 37.

Eh, these guys have been doing what they've been doing longer than Miller has, their career numbers speak for themselves 

 

There aren't many players you can compare to Jumbo Joe either when you consider his career totals, in the entirety of NHL history 

 

Getzlaf was ppg by his third season, Bergeron is a rare two way talent who put up 73 points in his second season

 

Players can age gracefully, but forwards who do are typically players who've been top tier talent from early on in their careers

Edited April 24, 2022 by Coconuts

[Kevin Biestra]

4 hours ago, Coconuts said:

Eh, these guys have been doing what they've been doing longer than Miller has, their career numbers speak for themselves 

 

There aren't many players you can compare to Jumbo Joe either when you consider his career totals, in the entirety of NHL history 

 

Getzlaf was ppg by his third season, Bergeron is a rare two way talent who put up 73 points in his second season

 

Players can age gracefully, but forwards who do are typically players who've been top tier talent from early on in their careers

 

The odds of being good at 37 or so are definitely higher for top tier talents...but there are players who have pulled it off as just really good players...Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen, Scott Young, Jeff Carter, Scott Mellanby, Cliff Ronning...  JT could be one of those guys.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

The odds of being good at 37 or so are definitely higher for top tier talents...but there are players who have pulled it off as just really good players...Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen, Scott Young, Jeff Carter, Scott Mellanby, Cliff Ronning...  JT could be one of those guys.

Rod Brindamour...Larionov (that's not fair to start adding HHOFer..Makarov too though lol.   I do think that they guys who start top tier have the highest chances of maintaining it until they are 37 or so.    I also think every team can afford one aging vet who's cap doesn't quite pay  for what he's actually doing.  Pavelski of course added to the list.    Only 20 NHLers have scored 60 as a 37 year old ... almost all are in the HHOF or likely end up there ... Steve Sullivan and Roberts and Lang could be added to the list too.  Brunette, LeClair and Ferraro as well.   Reality is Miller would be in great company if he scores 50-60 as a 36/37 year old really as well.    Hasn't happened often 50ish times 36, 44 37, mostly the same guys too. 

[Kevin Biestra]

10 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Rod Brindamour...Larionov (that's not fair to start adding HHOFer..Makarov too though lol.   I do think that they guys who start top tier have the highest chances of maintaining it until they are 37 or so.    I also think every team can afford one aging vet who's cap doesn't quite pay  for what he's actually doing.  Pavelski of course added to the list.    Only 20 NHLers have scored 60 as a 37 year old ... almost all are in the HHOF or likely end up there ... Steve Sullivan and Roberts and Lang could be added to the list too.  Brunette, LeClair and Ferraro as well.   Reality is Miller would be in great company if he scores 50-60 as a 36/37 year old really as well.    Hasn't happened often 50ish times 36, 44 37, mostly the same guys too. 

 

Yeah I almost added Ferraro and Roberts when I was writing that.  But I couldn't remember if Ferraro trailed off at 36 or so instead of 37+ and I wondered if Roberts was a little too close to being a premier talent in some eyes.

[IBatch]

24 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

Yeah I almost added Ferraro and Roberts when I was writing that.  But I couldn't remember if Ferraro trailed off at 36 or so instead of 37+ and I wondered if Roberts was a little too close to being a premier talent in some eyes.

Roberts was sure a thorn in our side during our early 90's rivalry.    Definitely one of those tier down guys that at one point was flirting with the HHOF.   Maybe without his neck breaking he could have but then again that's what turned him into a gym rat.     Once he left Calgary my respect for him went up another notch.   Nice opponent to do battle against ... running McLean was it 3 times in one game?    My favourite Roberts moment, was when he completely took Ben Eager to task at 41...wish i could figure out to add the link lol.   Eager was the guy who Bieksa made go mad vs SJ... a momentum shift in that series.     Much bigger then both Roberts and Bieksa lol.  

 

Edit:  His rookie year he scored 13 goals ... had 282 PIMs lol...by year 7 he'd scored 228 goals and averaged well over 200 PIMs...for sure he was on pace for the HHOF.   Don't make power forwards like they used to do they?   Tochett is another one...Shane Corson.   Neely.    Stevens.  Clark - a long list of others...    Miss the good old days sometimes ..

Edited April 24, 2022 by IBatch