The Contending Window for this team is the next 4 years and planning should be for that period

[SilentSam]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

It's not that we can't be competitive the next couple years, with our without Miller. We could/should still be decent, bubble playoff team with the right moves, and could even go on a run here or there. Heck, we could win a cup if things break the right way! As you said, there's a lot of factors involved (luck being a large one).

 

But to become a true "contender" in the realm of teams like Colorado, Tampa, Florida etc... A team people pick likely to be in conference finals every year, at the beginning of the season... We've got work to do.

 

Overly reliant on Demko. Lack size/speed/grit/PK'ers/3C/organizational depth. Major structural and succession issues on RD. We need to address those things, and that's going to take a couple years.

 

And yes, while young players like Pettersson, Hughes or even younger guys like Podkolzin or maybe Rathbone etc could certainly play big parts in success in the interim, the fact is, players usually have greater success in the playoffs in that 24-30 +/- age range. We're not there yet. But that is definitely the age range we should be pushing our efforts towards. Building towards.

 

Again, that doesn't mean we can't have/expect/strive for success in the interim. No team goes from bottom ten team to legit contender in one offseason. We're going to need to walk before we run there, and that inherently will involve some some success.

 

St Louis Blues.

 

it’s hockey agent,  even Covid happens.

[MikeBossy]

18 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

You don't need to sign a bunch of UFA's to fill holes in order to keep Miller.  Actually, that's the opposite of what needs to be done.  That is what got us into trouble in the first place.  Myers, Poolman, Dickinson and Boeser are all players that can be moved to free up major cap space.  Someone like Hoglander can be moved to get a player of need in another position.  I mentioned Josh Manson as he would be a great fit with Hughes or OEL.  At some point you can fill some holes with UFA's, you can't just do what Benning did and try to fix ALL of the holes with UFA's.

 

If you want to move Miller, then the question I have for you is who are you going to replace him with?  How do you replace a 100 point player and IMPROVE this team?  Are you going to go out and sign a bunch of UFA's to do it?  What is the return coming back from a Miller trade?

 

As I said many times, I would be in favour of moving Miller if it is an overpayment and we are getting a huge return.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen at the trade deadline and now the window to trade Miller has shrunk and the return will not be a good.  Trading him just to free up cap space isn't going to help us long term.  We need assets back in any Miller trade.  Big assets.  The Rangers aren't trading us Schneider.  And Lundkvist, Kravtsov and a 1st isn't going to do the trick.

First off I like Tyler Myers but I agree he needs to be moved and replaced with Manson. RHD is our biggest need and let's be honest - that won't be fixed via the draft based on our draft position. Not if we plan to contend in 2 years.

[MikeBossy]

47 minutes ago, IBatch said:

And all of TB superpowers - yet it was Vasilevsky that is saving their season.   Sure did when we played them.   Yes you need a top ten goalie.   Our team strengths are down the middle and goaltending plus youth and age.   NSH couldn't win with the best all around D core and a top 3-5 goalie in Rinne.   Can't have it all with the cap.   Sure we could be better balanced.   COL has to win this year or next year or they are f!cked cap wise.   Things aren't so bad.   We are a 2nd for Lumme away from being a great team.    Allvin is just as likely to screw it up as he is to improve things. 

Another team that will see cap issues next year is Calgary - Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Mangaipane all need contracts. We need to build a contender smartly and as cost effective as possible - other wise you end up like the Coilers with lots of firepower but very questionable goaltending.

[Elias Pettersson]

3 minutes ago, MikeBossy said:

First off I like Tyler Myers but I agree he needs to be moved and replaced with Manson. RHD is our biggest need and let's be honest - that won't be fixed via the draft based on our draft position. Not if we plan to contend in 2 years.

I agree.  If we can sign Manson and move Myers without retention that would be a big step to fix the D.  Moving Boeser for another Dman like Marino would help us even more.  Moving Schenn down to play on the 3rd pairing would be huge.

 

Hughes        Manson

OEL              Marino

Rathbone    Schenn

Dermott       Burroughs

 

That is a major improvement on what we have now.  And we didn't need to trade Miller to do all of that.  And it fits under our cap as we are moving out Boeser and Myers.

 

It's not a long term solution as Schenn is 32 and Manson is 31, but it helps us for the next 4 years or so until we can draft and develop some RHD.

 

 

[aGENT]

4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Boudreau has showed us that this team is not as bad as some people think.  There is work to be done but it is a process and can't all be fixed in one summer.

I thought we were a bubble team with the myriad roster issues I've already listed (more times than I'd prefer), heading in to this season. I still think we're a bubble team with those same issues.

 

4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

One thing I do know is that you can't replace a 100 point player.  Sure, you can try and fill the holes and hope that the young guys step up, but there is no guarantee that will ever happen.  

This was never about replacing Miller. You can't/don't do that. His points would need to be "replaced" by having a deeper, better constructed, more cohesive team (with an actual identity)/by committee/by having less goals against/improving our goal differential.

 

4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

As for the human element, that is a big factor in any dressing room.  Even professional athletes are human.  Sure, these guys get paid the big bucks, trades happen all the time.  I get that.  But how many times does a team trade their leading scorer?  I don't think that happens very often, and it would be a BIG deal in the dressing room.  Another thing to consider is that JR/PA already mentioned the "culture" in Vancouver and how that needs to be changed.  This is something that has been a problem in Vancouver for a long time.  Changing the culture may not involve a Miller trade, as he may not be part of that problem.  It may be to move someone like Boeser, who is close to our best players but may not be a good fit in the dressing room.  He doesn't seem to have the same drive that Miller does.

None of us are in the room and have no idea, soi have zero desire to speculate. Regardless, making bad cap/term/organizational decisions based on a guy being "good in the room" is a bad mindset. Good in the room or not, he either extends for terms that make sense, or we move him. Period.

 

4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Like I've said many times before I am open to a Miller trade it it's the right trade for this team.  I even made some trade proposals in other threads.  What I am not in favour of is simply moving Miller because he doesn't "fit our window" and his contract will be an albatross.  We can't predict how Miller will age, so it is an unknown at this point if he will decline heavily into his 30's and if that contract will screw us over in order to build a cup contender.  Also, the assets we get back may not actually help us long term.  Picks and young players don't always work out the way you want them to.

Welcome to sports (life). There's no guarantees in anything.

 

4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

If there is a Miler trade out there that actually makes sense I'm all ears.  I just haven't seen one that does and I also haven't seen one that the other team would actually accept.

 

We'll find out soon enough. Likewise if there's a Miller extension that makes sense ($8mx5 years!) that he'd actually sign (ha!), I'm also all ears.

Edited April 23, 2022 by aGENT

[IBatch]

54 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Exactly the same way people pencil in Miller at $8.5 and then magically pretend they can fix the defence, lack of depth, and leadership by just penciling in UFA, AHL guy, Lockwood, etc.. We've been doing that exact same approach for years now and it ain't working. 

 

SEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL 

 

I almost want to see us keep Miller just to see how on earth they would fix the team at the same time. I mean I'm not saying it can't work but it would have to be absolute genius to simply carry on Benning's vision and somehow make it pay off now.

MG didn't have to draft anyone for six years.   Not like it hasn't happened before.   Nonis and Burke gave him everything he needed - and he added some good things and some not so good things ( Booth and Ballard plus our first with all his powers of clause kingdom, like adding a 6 million plus forward today and 6 million plus D).    QHs is 22...EP 23...Horvat/Brock/Demko in their prime age range.   Guess it comes down to what type of team we are in the post season more then anything.   Sedins managed one series win once they got to that age (with Naslund and Linden still) plus one run.   That's it.    Funny thing ... bubble team did that one already.   I'm willing to wait and see what this team can do in the post season before passing too much judgement.   Tearing it down ... well sure it's an option too.  Doesn't guarantee this team is going to be a contender either way.    Yes our D needs work.   That said it's not nearly as terrible as some make it out to be either. 

[IBatch]

13 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I thought we were a bubble team with the myriad roster issues I've already listed (more tribes than I'd prefer), heading in to this season. I still think we're a bubble team with those same issues.

 

This was never about replacing Miller. You can't/don't do that. His points would need to be "replaced" by having a deeper, better constructed, more cohesive team (with an actual identity)/by committee/by having less goals against/improving our goal differential.

 

None of us are in the room and have no idea, soi have zero desire to speculate. Regardless, making bad cap/term/organizational decisions based on a guy being "good in the room" is a bad mindset. Good in the room or not, he either extends for terms that make sense, or we move him. Period.

 

Welcome to sports (life). There's no guarantees in anything.

 

 

We'll find out soon enough. Likewise if there's a Miller extension that makes sense ($8mx5 years!) that he'd actually sign (ha!), I'm also all ears.

aGENT 8.5 x 5 would be just fine wouldn't it.    Guess we will find out this off season.    Either by action or inaction as to what's going to happen next. 

[VegasCanuck]

12 hours ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

I am seeing a lot of posters talking about trading away huge parts of the team in the off season and suggesting we should be building for 5-7 years away.

 

I completely disagree.

 

This team was wasted for the last two years under Green.  He should have been gone in 2020. 

 

They would have been in the playoffs under a competent coach... they completely underachieved under Green.  Management has wasted two years when the team should have been gaining valuable playoff experience.

 

Depressing when you think of it that way, but there is a bright side... this team should surprise a lot of pundits next year.

 

Assuming Boudreau is here next year, I think getting into the playoffs should be a slam dunk... in fact I would expect them to place 2nd or 3rd in the division... (assuming we get some defensive additions in the off season!!!)

 

If you look at the personnel, all the key top six offensive players will be moving into the peak career age years of 24-32 in the next four years. 

 

Horvat - age is 28-31 over the 4 year span

Miller -  30-33

Pettersson -  24-27

Boeser -  25-28

Podkolzin -  21-24

Garland -  26 - 29

 

Miller would be 33, but his birthday is March 15, he has just turned 29, so most of the year he is younger... and 33 is still an age when a player, while he might not have a career season, has all the veteran savvy which is key in the playoffs.  Garland also has a March birthday.  Boeser's is in February.  Podz is younger than optimum, but this year has shown he is maturing faster than most power forwards... I think he will be playoff ready starting next year.  His birthday is in November at the start of the season.

 

Defense is not as optimal when you look at ages... but we already know there is a need to add bigger, younger D... to complement Hughes.  Hughes birthday is October 14 at the start of the season, so next year he is 24 nearly all year.  Myers is 32... his birthday his halfway through the season in February.  But D can play effectively later than forwards... they depend more on endurance and power, slow twitch muscle response rather than fast twitch.  So they can often play effectively till they are 34 or even 35.  Schenn is the worst case... his birthday is in November, so next year he is 33 most of the year.  But as mentioned, as our #1 priority we need a replacement for him on the Hughes pairing... Schenn should ideally be playing the 5/6.

 

Hughes -  24-27

Myers -  32-35

OEL -  31-34

Schenn -  33-36

 

The other younger D which are already in the roster are not likely key to the team's future plans... they will be 6/7's.  Of those Dermott and Burroughs could fill those roles.  The role of Poolman is a big question mark.  If he gets some decent coaching under Boudreau can his career be resurrected?  He does have the size the team needs.  If he could pair effectively with Schenn in the 5/6, then suddenly the team looks better.  I do not think he can fill the role as Hughes' partner.

 

The missing piece is the #2 D to pair with Hughes... which has be someone who is big, decently mobile and with a good shot... but someone who like Schenn focuses on being the D in that 1/2 pairing.

 

Finally we need to look at goaltending.  Yes, goalies play well into their mid '30's, but typically they have their career years between 28-31.

 

Thatcher Demko is 26, his birthday is in December, most of next year he will be 27.  He is the team's franchise goalie... in fact, he may be the team's franchise player.

 

Goalies of the caliber of Demko do not fall off trees... look at the problems Edmonton, Calgary, (before Markstrom) and many other teams have trying to find the backstopper who will take them deep into the playoffs.

 

Canucks management need to plan around what are likely to be Demko's best years.

 

I think as mentioned, the key to improving this team into a real contender is finding a big, physical, defensively skilled, young D to complement Hughes.  This does not have to be a #1 D... we already have our #1 in Hughes.  But that first D pairing, which is currently Myers/OEL, will inevitably change as they age to another pairing, one of whom will be Hughes, and one of which will be someone the team acquires. 

 

Canucks management need to set as their priority acquiring that D.

 

That may mean trading away one of the team's offensive assets... (absolutely not Petey or Podz and hopefully not Miller)  Or maybe they can find a nugget in free agent signings, (has to be a bargain though) or in another team's discards, or in Europe?

 

There are other parts which the team needs... they do not have a good 3rd line.... right now the current third line of Lamikko/Highmore/Lockwood is actually what should be next year's 4th line.  The current 4th line will probably see Richardson leave due to age... Pearson should be back and can slot into the third.  Maybe Nils Hoglander can come back and fill a spot on the third... he clearly was injured this year and hopefully will be better.  I don't see Petan there... hasn't shown the scoring finish and doesn't have the physical size.  Sheldon Dries is more physical, has speed and is showing flashes, but is a long way off.  Then you have Dickenson and Chiasson... Dickenson would work on the third line if he can continue his improved play under Boudreau... not sure about Chiasson... he is not so good in the third line role... he shines in top six and PP roles... but I don't think he is good enough to slot top six.  Ideally the team signs a big, tough center in the off season who can chip in 10 goals a year and be solid defensively.

 

I think this team is closer than a lot of the fans think.  It has been underachieving, but next year can be the real turnaround. 

 

 

 

 

 

We need to round out the team to be a true contender. If I suggest trading someone, Like Boeser, it's to gain assets from an area of strength and depth (RW). We have Klimovich coming up in the next 12 - 18 months, so ultimately we will be good in that area. 

 

Where I see weakness in this team is LW, RD and our Bottom 6. Any trades or moves that we make should be specifically addressing depth at those positions.

 

Right now, I don't see us as having a top 6 specifically, we're more of a middle 9 plus a 4th line. I think we need a much better definition between the top and bottom of the lineup.

 

I've said in other posts, I think Boeser will be moved this summer and likely Myers as well. Not because we can't afford to keep Boeser and Myers, but because we need to balance our cap space and overall lineup coverage and especially with Boeser, if we target trade partner really well, we should be able to get back, the pieces we need to bolster those positions.

 

Myers, I think the time to trade him is now, he's had a fairly solid year, and from a balance of cap standpoint, I think we need to move either Myers or OEL, and I don't think we can move OEL with his NMC.

 

In addition to moving these 2 guys, there will likely be some smaller trades this summer, plus some targeted depth signings, leveraging the cap space I think this plan will create, to bring Balance to the Forc....er...the lineup.

 

Just my two cents!

[Elias Pettersson]

1 minute ago, IBatch said:

aGENT 8.5 x 5 would be just fine wouldn't it.    Guess we will find out this off season.    Either by action or inaction as to what's going to happen next. 

I could live with $8.5 million. I doubt Miller signs for only 5 years though. The good news is that if we can lock him up at $8.5 million even at 7 years it won’t be so bad as OEL’s contract will be off the books by year 5 of Miller’s 7 year deal. 
 

So even if Miller is a 50 point player at age 34 it won’t be so bad if OEL’s contract is off the books. Also, in 5 years where is the cap going to be at?  Will an $8.5 million contract really be an albatross if the cap is at $92 million?

[*Buzzsaw*]

12 hours ago, aGENT said:

Petey and Hughes not even in their primes.

Wrong.

 

Most skilled offensive players have their best seasons at 24-27... Pettersson, baring injuries, will probably score at least 80 points in 2022/2023... and possibly 90.  The next two years will probably be career years for him.  It is the heavier power forward type who tend to have career years when they are older.  (Miller/Bertuzzi examples)

 

Hughes also fits the pattern of a small skilled defenseman... he is already playing with a maturity beyond his years.  He will likely have his career seasons in the next three years.

 

The idea of trading away Miller, the best point producer on the team, is questionable.  The chances of the team getting back someone who can replace him is small.

 

Miller, along with Pettersson, and to a lesser extent Garland, drive the Canuck offense... and feed the Horvat/Boeser/Podz... together they give the team two lines threats.

 

Trading Miller before Boudreau has a chance to show what he can do with a full season is shortsighted.

 

If for some reason, the season goes in the toilet, and Miller underachieves, then he can be traded before the 2023 deadline.

[DSVII]

2 hours ago, SilentSam said:

St Louis Blues.

 

it’s hockey agent,  even Covid happens.

Luck is when opportunity meets preparation. And the blues had a very uniqye circumstance (not to mention swindling buffalo for ROR) not comparable to us at all and we cant ignore fundamentals and bank our future cup on a once in a lifetime run 

Edited April 23, 2022 by DSVII

[aGENT]

32 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

Wrong.

 

Most skilled offensive players have their best seasons at 24-27... 

Right, so 23 year old Pettersson is...

 

32 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

The idea of trading away Miller, the best point producer on the team, is questionable.  The chances of the team getting back someone who can replace him is small.

 

Trading Miller isn't about replacing him.

 

32 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

 

Miller, along with Pettersson, and to a lesser extent Garland, drive the Canuck offense... and feed the Horvat/Boeser/Podz... together they give the team two lines threats.

 

Nobody said we won't need players like Miller.

 

32 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

If for some reason, the season goes in the toilet, and Miller underachieves, then he can be traded before the 2023 deadline.

Almost zero chance we let this linger until next deadline. Too many risks, too much distraction the team doesn't need.

Edited April 23, 2022 by aGENT

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Luck is when opportunity meets preparation. And the blues had a very uniqye circumstance (not to mention swindling buffalo for ROR) not comparable to us at all and we cant ignore fundamentals and bank our future cup on a once in a lifetime run 

"Plan" for getting in the playoffs where "anything can happen". "Plan" for Miller to be an outlier and productive in to his late 30's.

 

That's not planning, that's praying. Something tells me Rutherford and co are a touch more pragmatic.

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, SilentSam said:

St Louis Blues.

 

it’s hockey agent,  even Covid happens.

The Canucks missed the part where they actually have a reasonably well constructed roster, and actually make the playoffs (looking mighty slim there) 

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

"Plan" for getting in the playoffs where "anything can happen". "Plan" for Miller to be an outlier and productive in to his late 30's.

 

That's not planning, that's praying. Something tells me Rutherford and co are a touch more pragmatic.

If Miller stays we are keeping Bruce and going all in now and for the next two years.  Our picks and prospects (first 2023 and Bone) could be on the table to help fill holes.  

[BPA]

Henrik Sedin stats after reaching 112pts at 30yr old: 94, 81, 45 (short season), 50, 73, 55, 50, 50.  Retired at age 38yr.

 

Daniel Sedin stats after reaching 104pts at 31yr old: 67, 40 (short season), 47, 76, 61, 44, 55.  Retired at age 38yr.

 

They were both making $7M each when they retired.

 

Some food for thought.

[Ghostsof1915]

6 minutes ago, aGENT said:

"Plan" for getting in the playoffs where "anything can happen". "Plan" for Miller to be an outlier and productive in to his late 30's.

 

That's not planning, that's praying. Something tells me Rutherford and co are a touch more pragmatic.

Here's the problem. You don't know what he's going to be like 5 years from now good or bad. 

Stamkos took less to stay in a good situation in Tampa. At age 32 he's already at 90 points in 76 games. He's had a covid season, and injury season. And he's signed for another two seasons. No one is griping about how much he makes. He could have taken the money and played in Toronto. No one in Tampa is freaking about having a possible "Declining asset". Does winning cups buy you more goodwill, probably.

 

I understand letting players walk as UFA's hurts the fanbase and the team. But this isn't real estate, bitcoin or stocks. This is sports. These are human beings. 

What are the odds someone with Miller's drive is going to turn into a Loui? I find that unlikely. Could he get injured sure. Almost every player gets injured. 

A declining Miller to me is more like a 40-50 point guy. Not a fall off the map kind of player. 

 

If you are so afraid of losing value. Then the team will cycle through players and never get good. 

[Gurn]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

MG didn't have to draft anyone for six years.  

And the team is now going into year 9 of trying to recover.

[Gurn]

12 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Stamkos took less to stay in a good situation in Tampa

Florida tax rates and climate for the win.

Steve is also able to go  out almost anywhere and not be recognized.

[SilentSam]

35 minutes ago, aGENT said:

"Plan" for getting in the playoffs where "anything can happen". "Plan" for Miller to be an outlier and productive in to his late 30's.

 

That's not planning, that's praying. Something tells me Rutherford and co are a touch more pragmatic.

47 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Right, so 23 year old Pettersson is...

 

 

Trading Miller isn't about replacing him.

 

 

Nobody said we won't need players like Miller.

 

Almost zero chance we let this linger until next deadline. Too many risks, too much distraction the team doesn't need.