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Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim

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9 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Bedard

 

 

HaHa!  Growing up in Chilliwack, I went to a school called Bernard Elementary.  We had a school song at the time that started: "Bernard, Bernard, the school we love so dear. Bernard, Bernard, no equal far or near....."   With just a little imagination, I'm already tweaking it in my head to make it about Bedard!  Hopefully that can be my contribution to this thread!:lol::lol:

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On 1/21/2023 at 12:56 AM, Junkyard Dog said:

Bedard

 

 

Thanks for sharing. I really haven't seen much of Bedard before so I was curious what his strengths are.  He's not a particularly big guy and he's not tall and it looks like he gets most of his goals with that wicked shot......so it will be interesting to see how successful he will be at the NHL level.  Obviously he'll be good, but will his peak actually hit generational status?  Will he actually be able to get those shots off just as well in the NHL if he doesn't have the ability to dangle or speed past players like McD?  Perhaps he has that too.  Should be interesting...

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If Bedard really wants to be a Canuck, he could pull off a Lindros (Michel Goulet did the same to get drafted by Quebec too).  So that is why finishing closer to the bottom is useful because it will be easier to facilitate a trade when you have a low pick too (or other teams could let him slide to your draft position like what happened with Goulet).  Aside from the Lindros option, Bedard could go the college route, spend a few years there, and then will be free to sign with whichever team he wants to.  Not saying he would do any of this, but if he really wants to the power is in his hands.  Just putting this out there.

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5 hours ago, J-23 said:

Only 8 points back from the final spot.

 

Wasn’t it 14 a few weeks ago?

 

Anything is possible, unless we get a coaching bump :wacko:

I worry about this, plus Demko's return, they'll probably end up playing like a 0.55 - 0.6 points percentage team which will really hurt our chances. I bet we get a little bump up from Rick, plus our schedule's nicer now.


Any bets we end up above a bunch of these bad Eastern teams, but not good enough to get into the Nashville/St. Louis range of mediocrity. I think we'll be 8th last by the end of it, really drops our chances of Bedard. We're so close to Arizona or San Jose passing us if they get a bit better but I doubt it'll happen.

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2 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

The last place team has like a 75% chance of not picking top 2.

 

Yet they still try…

That doesn’t seem to be true.

 

According to Tankathon, the last place team has the following odds:

 

1st overall - 25.5%
2nd overall - 18.8%
3rd overall - 55.7%
 

That is pretty close to 50/50 picking in the top two, and 100% in the top three.

 

This year the scouts say the top three guys would each to 1st overall in most draft classes.  It definitely pays to tank, especially now that only two spots are in the lottery and you can’t drop as far.

 

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Provost said:

That doesn’t seem to be true.

 

According to Tankathon, the last place team has the following odds:

 

1st overall - 25.5%
2nd overall - 18.8%
3rd overall - 55.7%
 

That is pretty close to 50/50 picking in the top two, and 100% in the top three.

 

This year the scouts say the top three guys would each to 1st overall in most draft classes.  It definitely pays to tank, especially now that only two spots are in the lottery and you can’t drop as far.

 

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

 

 

Sorry should have said 1st overall.

 

Theres a 75% chance they don’t pick first overall.

 

Even 50/50 after being the worst team in the league ain’t great. Couldn’t imagine how much it would suck to pick third after that.

 

 

Edited by DeNiro
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The exact reason I post these threads is illustrated by the NYI doubling down on a playoff race when their odds are really low.  GMs chase poor odds for short term hopes at the expense of the organization.

 

They have an 11% chance of making the playoffs right now and have a false sense of optimism about their chances so gave up significant futures for what was a rental.

 

Of course they may re-sign him and there may be other market factors at play where they felt this was needed… but it is just bad decision making when you miss the playoffs 9 times out of 10.

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