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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 4.0


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Obviously we have different timelines on Edmonton. I see them making the Chicago jump from 65pts in '05/'06 (Toews draft), 71pts in '06/'07 (Kane draft), to 88pts and barely missing the playoffs in '07/'08. I think this year's Oilers, if they can't capitalize on the shortened season, are where the '07/'08 Blackhawks were. They're missing a Keith Seabrook for sure (might Klefbom be that guy?) and they're missing a David Bolland, but they have their Duncan Keith in Justin Schultz, their Toews in RNH, their Kane in Eberle and I haven't even mentioned Hall and Yakupov.

Edmonton is a lot further along than most are projecting.

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Obviously we have different timelines on Edmonton. I see them making the Chicago jump from 65pts in '05/'06 (Toews draft), 71pts in '06/'07 (Kane draft), to 88pts and barely missing the playoffs in '07/'08. I think this year's Oilers, if they can't capitalize on the shortened season, are where the '07/'08 Blackhawks were. They're missing a Keith Seabrook for sure (might Klefbom be that guy?) and they're missing a David Bolland, but they have their Duncan Keith in Justin Schultz, their Toews in RNH, their Kane in Eberle and I haven't even mentioned Hall and Yakupov.

Edmonton is a lot further along than most are projecting.

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I totally agree with this. I also expect Justin Schultz to step in and have an immediate impact. It would not surprise me in the least to see Edmonton win the division, and/or just make the playoffs. In addition to talent, they've also got both momentum (winning 1st overall, signing Schultz) and have actually been playing meaningful games this whole time!

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Good players on their squad for sure, just not a team as yet, at least not one good enough to compete with other NHL teams. Doesn't mean they won't get there, but it does mean I don't want to help them with a direct trade within our division. Not sure a three way deal has happened before like what it would take to move Luongo and associated assets, but that's the only option I see at this point.

Just as an example:

Van moves Luongo

Edm moves Klefbom

Tor moves Kadri

Van gets Klefbom

Edm gets Kadri

Tor gets Luongo

Doubt it works with anything more than a piece or two from each since the deal gets much too complex to figure out value otherwise. Not saying this is good value, just an example of a piece each to keep it simple.

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I think they may have momentum going into the season and i too think schultz will make an immediate impact offensively but i still feel like they will have trouble keeping the puck out of their net. Dubnyk is the key to their season. He is going to have a quick like year for them to have success imo.

I see them missing the playoffs due to their back end

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First of all I thought Francis' report meant Lou to Edmonton but the bolded is exactly my point. That deal now addresses only Toronto's current roster needs, it leaves Edmonton even weaker on the back end (which everyone knows is their weakness) and gives them something they already have in Sam Gagner, and it gives Vancouver yet another left side Dman.

Three way deals typically have multple pieces for the very reason of evening out value. If your prospect pool doesn't have one of the pieces you need to land the targeted NHL, you have to fish it out of another organization. So far bluechip prospect (Kadri), impact roster player aka top-9 FWD (Bozak) & a 1st has been mentioned by various media types as the Gillis asking price. If Burke is unwilling to part with a 1st, perhaps Gillis has said he'd accept a former 1st rounder like MPS from Edmonton. It is now up to Burke to flip one of his plethora of Dmen for MPS but does he have what it takes or does he now have to add a pick so that his package ultimately costs him Bozak, Kadri, young Dman and a pick? Now Gillis has to add something to even it out.

Three way deals can get big in a hurry.

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And that's why they're usually simple. Think the Kyle Quincy deal from last year, which was essentially a 3-way deal the way it played out.

Quincy to Detroit

Downey to Colorado

Piche and a 1st to Tampa

Minimal pieces, and when two teams (Colorado and Detroit) couldn't agree directly, they involved Tampa to get back what they wanted/needed.

Francis might have meant directly to Edmonton, but that's not very likely to be a big deal between teams in the same division.

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And my opinion is it would get harder to determine value the bigger the pieces you add, so you'd have to try and keep it simple. Hockey deals are easy when your trading lower level guys, since extras and bias don't factor in as much ("he was a top draft choice", "he's been an elite goalie for years", "he's really valuable to our team"). I could be wrong, but that's my take on it, and it's why you don't see three way deals for significant players like this, unless someone wants to come up with some examples to prove me wrong.

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WOAH WOAH WOAH! I think i just pee'd myself. Bozak, Frattin + 2nd rounder??!? Dafuq?

She's a columnist for the Toronto Sun, apparently dating Matt Moulson. It's not inconceivable that she could have an inside source.

I'm not a fan of this deal if it is true. I wonder what the cap flex trade was? I hope we aren't retaining any cap hit on top of taking Burke's leftovers (except for Bozak).

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WOAH WOAH WOAH! I think i just pee'd myself. Bozak, Frattin + 2nd rounder??!? Dafuq?

She's a columnist for the Toronto Sun, apparently dating Matt Moulson. It's not inconceivable that she could have an inside source.

I'm not a fan of this deal if it is true. I wonder what the cap flex trade was? I hope we aren't retaining any cap hit on top of taking Burke's leftovers (except for Bozak).

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