Tom Sestito Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Posted this on HFBoards today "2007 draft. #6 Gagner (really meh 2nd liner)#7 Jakub Voracek (first liner)#8 Zach Hamill (total bust)#9 Logan Couture (first liner)#10 Keaton Ellerby (bust)---#11 Brandon Sutter (3rd liner)#12 Ryan McGodnagh (top pairing, top ten dman in the NHL)#13 Lars Eller (3rd liner)#14 Kevin Shattenkirk (#2-#3 dman)#15 Alex Plante (bust)(2 booms from 6-10, 2 busts, one meh) (2 booms, 2 meh, 1 bust)2008#6 Nikita Filatov (Bust)#7 Colin Wilson (2/3 liner)#8 Mikkel Boedker (2nd liner)#9 Joshua Bailey (3rd liner)#10 Cody Hodgson (meh 2nd liner - like Gagner for me)---#11 Kyle Beach (Cdc's favourite = BUST)#12 Tyler Myers (#2-#3 dman)#13 Colten Teubert (bust)#14 Zach Boychuk (bust)#15 Erik Karlsson (top 5 defenseman in the NHL)Again, a bust and 4 guys who aren't anything special. Two booms in the second part..2009 NHL draft#6 OEL (top pairing, top 15 dman in the NHL)#7 Nazem Kadri (2C)#8 Scott Glennie (bust)#9 Jared Cowen (2nd pairing dman)#10 Paajarvi (3rd/4th liner - kind of a disappointment)----#11 Ryan Ellis (2nd/3rd pairing PPQB)#12 Calvin de Haan (2nd/3rd pairing D)#13 Zack Kassian (3rd liner at this moment)#14 Kulikov (2nd pair D)#15 Holland (3c)Make your assessment from here on out.2010 NHL draft#6 Brett Connolly (Bust?)#7 Skinner (1/2nd liner)#8 Burmistrov (Bust)#9 Mikael Granlund (2c)#10 McIlrath (Looks like a bust or bottom pair D)--#11 Jack Campbell (3-4 years away but this year had a 947% in the AHL)#12 Cam Fowler (top pairing d)#13 Brandon Gormley (projects as a top four - still thought of highly in organization but not there yet)#14 Jaden Schwartz (top six)#15 Forbort (bust) - thought I'd point out that Tarasenko went #16 2011 NHL draft#6 Zibanejad (2nd 3rd line tweener ATM)#7 Scheifele (2c)#8 Couturier (best young defensive player in the NHL, with 2nd line offensive capabilities)#9 Hamilton (#2-#3 d)#10 Brodin (top four)--#11 Siemens (still developing in the AHL)#12 Ryan Murphy (bottom pair PPQB)#13 Sven Baertschi (still needs to improve defensive part of game - two way game)#14 Jamie Oleksiak (2nd pair potential?)#15 JT Miller (lit up the AHL, but hasn't made enough of an impact in the NHL yet)People really like to say 'well a pick in the top ten is really good' but all we realistically had a shot at was #6, and it's not as if you're getting a sure superstar. For the most part, it's going to be a middle six forward no matter where you take one in that range.." It's a bit too early to tell with the 2011 NHL draft, but from the four drafts prior, I'd say about 9 players became 1st line / top pairing guys. No, I'm not including the potential that guys like Schwartz or Granlund have to be a 1st liner. The 9 players from those 4 drafts and 40 picks are Voracek, Couture, McGodnagh, Shattenkirk (who's playing behind two team Canada dmen #2 imo), Karlsson, Myers, OEL, Skinner, and Fowler. That's 22.5% of the players. Of those booms, 4 of them were taken from 6-10, 5 of them were taken from 11-15 Busts - Hamill, Ellerby, Plante, Filatov, Beach, Teubert, Boychuk, Glennie, Forbort, Connolly, Burmistrov, McIlrath = busts or soon to be IMO. That's 30% of the players. Of those busts, 6 were taken in the 6-10 range; 6 were taken in the 11-15 range. All I want to point out with this is that the draft shoot is pretty much a crap shoot after the top 5 picks. It's pretty much equal. It's too soon to tell with the 2011-2013 drafts, but I hope that this should prove to the people that are crying about us winning a few games down the stretch that it's really not going to make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyCuddles Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I wouldn't mind trading up but don't realistically see that happening. Just gotta hope someone good falls to us and we can snag him, obvious lol but still. Another Shinkaruk, haven't seen what he can do yet but I am optimistic about him being good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BanTSN Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I thought this was going to be about the 2014 draft again. Instead it's about past, irrelevant drafts.We just played a game against Colorado, who now has 3 great young star forwards on their team. Landy is a horse and he's only 19. Duchene is a ridiculously fast two-way force. And MacKinnon is a future all-star.Who cares about which 6-15 picks pan out or not when your competition is getting 1-5 picks and they're all better than what you've got to put on the ice?Until we officially replace our franchise players, we'll remain pretenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Sestito Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 I thought this was going to be about the 2014 draft again. Instead it's about past, irrelevant drafts. We just played a game against Colorado, who now has 3 great young star forwards on their team. Landy is a horse and he's only 19. Duchene is a ridiculously fast two-way force. And MacKinnon is a future all-star. Who cares about which 6-15 picks pan out or not when your competition is getting 1-5 picks and they're all better than what you've got to put on the ice? Until we officially replace our franchise players, we'll remain pretenders. Hold on, hold on. This was meant for the people who are whining about us not tanking for a slightly lower pick. At no point this season did we ever have a chance at a top five pick. I gave an analysis on the picks in that range to simply prove that there isn't a huge difference in the picks from the range we are picking in, while others on this board believe that 6-10 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 11-15. Also, isn't Landeskog 21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5Fivehole0 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Yea, not too excited about a pick usually.Only picks to actually get me excited for the Canucks at the draft in the last 5 years were Hunter Shinkaruk and maybe Jordan Subban Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Sestito Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Also, if you want my analysis on this year's draft and who I like in our range... C Jared McCann RW Kasperi Kapanen LW Adrian Kempe D Haydn Fleury Who I want us to stay away from? Virtanen, Ho Sang, and Ritchie. All big projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Can't argue with the fact that drafting is an inexact science. I'd like the Canucks to take Honka in our range (11ish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier's_elbow Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 If drafting is a crap shoot, then why does Detroit almost always draft good players? Excuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absent Canuck Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Posted this on HFBoards today "2007 draft. #6 Gagner (really meh 2nd liner)#7 Jakub Voracek (first liner)#8 Zach Hamill (total bust)#9 Logan Couture (first liner)#10 Keaton Ellerby (bust)---#11 Brandon Sutter (3rd liner)#12 Ryan McGodnagh (top pairing, top ten dman in the NHL)#13 Lars Eller (3rd liner)#14 Kevin Shattenkirk (#2-#3 dman)#15 Alex Plante (bust)(2 booms from 6-10, 2 busts, one meh) (2 booms, 2 meh, 1 bust)2008#6 Nikita Filatov (Bust)#7 Colin Wilson (2/3 liner)#8 Mikkel Boedker (2nd liner)#9 Joshua Bailey (3rd liner)#10 Cody Hodgson (meh 2nd liner - like Gagner for me)---#11 Kyle Beach (Cdc's favourite = BUST)#12 Tyler Myers (#2-#3 dman)#13 Colten Teubert (bust)#14 Zach Boychuk (bust)#15 Erik Karlsson (top 5 defenseman in the NHL)Again, a bust and 4 guys who aren't anything special. Two booms in the second part..2009 NHL draft#6 OEL (top pairing, top 15 dman in the NHL)#7 Nazem Kadri (2C)#8 Scott Glennie (bust)#9 Jared Cowen (2nd pairing dman)#10 Paajarvi (3rd/4th liner - kind of a disappointment)----#11 Ryan Ellis (2nd/3rd pairing PPQB)#12 Calvin de Haan (2nd/3rd pairing D)#13 Zack Kassian (3rd liner at this moment)#14 Kulikov (2nd pair D)#15 Holland (3c)Make your assessment from here on out.2010 NHL draft#6 Brett Connolly (Bust?)#7 Skinner (1/2nd liner)#8 Burmistrov (Bust)#9 Mikael Granlund (2c)#10 McIlrath (Looks like a bust or bottom pair D)--#11 Jack Campbell (3-4 years away but this year had a 947% in the AHL)#12 Cam Fowler (top pairing d)#13 Brandon Gormley (projects as a top four - still thought of highly in organization but not there yet)#14 Jaden Schwartz (top six)#15 Forbort (bust) - thought I'd point out that Tarasenko went #16 2011 NHL draft#6 Zibanejad (2nd 3rd line tweener ATM)#7 Scheifele (2c)#8 Couturier (best young defensive player in the NHL, with 2nd line offensive capabilities)#9 Hamilton (#2-#3 d)#10 Brodin (top four)--#11 Siemens (still developing in the AHL)#12 Ryan Murphy (bottom pair PPQB)#13 Sven Baertschi (still needs to improve defensive part of game - two way game)#14 Jamie Oleksiak (2nd pair potential?)#15 JT Miller (lit up the AHL, but hasn't made enough of an impact in the NHL yet)People really like to say 'well a pick in the top ten is really good' but all we realistically had a shot at was #6, and it's not as if you're getting a sure superstar. For the most part, it's going to be a middle six forward no matter where you take one in that range.." It's a bit too early to tell with the 2011 NHL draft, but from the four drafts prior, I'd say about 9 players became 1st line / top pairing guys. No, I'm not including the potential that guys like Schwartz or Granlund have to be a 1st liner. The 9 players from those 4 drafts and 40 picks are Voracek, Couture, McGodnagh, Shattenkirk (who's playing behind two team Canada dmen #2 imo), Karlsson, Myers, OEL, Skinner, and Fowler. That's 22.5% of the players. Of those booms, 4 of them were taken from 6-10, 5 of them were taken from 11-15 Busts - Hamill, Ellerby, Plante, Filatov, Beach, Teubert, Boychuk, Glennie, Forbort, Connolly, Burmistrov, McIlrath = busts or soon to be IMO. That's 30% of the players. Of those busts, 6 were taken in the 6-10 range; 6 were taken in the 11-15 range. All I want to point out with this is that the draft shoot is pretty much a crap shoot after the top 5 picks. It's pretty much equal. It's too soon to tell with the 2011-2013 drafts, but I hope that this should prove to the people that are crying about us winning a few games down the stretch that it's really not going to make a huge difference. The quality of players from 6 to 10 are higher than 11 to 15. When choosing from 6 to 10 you have all those 11 to 15 players to choose from as well. When choosing 11 to 15 you no longer have the 6 to 10 players. Drafting 6th in a deep draft means something . Drafting 15 in a weak draft may not yield an NHL player at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rypien37 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 We will be picking anywhere from 8th-11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 If drafting is a crap shoot, then why does Detroit almost always draft good players? Excuses. If drafting in the top 10 is so important, then why does Detroit, who have drafted in the top 20 about once in the last 20 years, always draft good players? Draft position is overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferlands_Head Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Ehlers plz and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brendan Gaunce Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 If drafting in the top 10 is so important, then why does Detroit, who have drafted in the top 20 about once in the last 20 years, always draft good players? Draft position is overstated. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absent Canuck Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 If drafting in the top 10 is so important, then why does Detroit, who have drafted in the top 20 about once in the last 20 years, always draft good players? Draft position is overstated. We live in a different time. We live in a salary cap world. The last dying remnants of the pre 2004 days are the Red Wings. Finding undeveloped players in later rounds is not a new concept. However, you have to get very lucky, and the wings drafted dozens and dozens of Europeans to find them. They also had a superstar lineup that included 4th over Yzerman and 2nd overall Shanahan among many other hall of famers that could slowly introduce young talent and develop them without having a screaming fanbase yelling for a winner. This is not some easy task to pull off.It is now virtually impossible. Players take off now due to the cap so you cant overstack your team so you can then raise youngsters to perfection. Drafting is the single most important tool GMs need to build and maintain their franchises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silfverberg Snipes Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'd rather be able to decide which bust we get rather than have our options limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 We live in a different time. We live in a salary cap world. The last dying remnants of the pre 2004 days are the Red Wings. Finding undeveloped players in later rounds is not a new concept. However, you have to get very lucky, and the wings drafted dozens and dozens of Europeans to find them. They also had a superstar lineup that included 4th over Yzerman and 2nd overall Shanahan among many other hall of famers that could slowly introduce young talent and develop them without having a screaming fanbase yelling for a winner. This is not some easy task to pull off.It is now virtually impossible. Players take off now due to the cap so you cant overstack your team so you can then raise youngsters to perfection. Drafting is the single most important tool GMs need to build and maintain their franchises. We live in a different time than the present? We're not talking about 23 years ago, we're talking about every year since. The Redwings have had one 19th overall and one 20th overall spanning back since 1991. The Redwings AHL team, the Grand Rapids Griffins, won the Calder Cup last year. How many top 20 picks were on that roster? Not one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helmer Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 To select out of equal talents the most important criteria are identity and robustness. ...and you understand why we choosed Horvat over Nichushkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shiznak Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 If drafting in the top 10 is so important, then why does Detroit, who have drafted in the top 20 about once in the last 20 years, always draft good players? Draft position is overstated. In 15 years, Detroit have only kept their first round pick seven times, and only three of them are currently on the squad (Kronwall, Smith, and Kindl). Most of their prize talents are 3rd-7th round gems. A good scouting staff, helps a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absent Canuck Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 In 15 years, Detroit have only kept their first round pick seven times, and only three of them are currently on the squad (Kronwall, Smith, and Kindl). Most of their prize talents are 3rd-7th round gems. A good scouting staff, helps a lot. Since 2006 Detroits drafting has been abysmal. Tartar and Nyquist (and presumably Mantha) are the only decent players. In spite of the fact they have drafted 52 players. 2005 produced 2 Nhl calibre players although I would argue none are stars. A second rounder (Abdelkader) and 5th gem (Helm). Canucks produced Mason Raymond in the second round of that draft. 2004 and further back are pre salary cap and again, back in the day where you could overstack your team with hall of fame talent, it was far easier to develop talent properly without a fanbase screaming at you to produce a winner . Holland was a genius to use this model as he knew his team could be over stacked at will. Talent attracts talent so you will never draft high anyways. We now live in a salary cap world where teams cannot monopolize talent anymore and lose their players with impunity . You have a definite time line to develop your talent or lose them in various ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRussianRocket. Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 We will be picking anywhere from 8th-11th. Yep and it's a great spot to pick. 1-4 are almost guaranteed players. 5-8 are usually high end players with risk involved and are either boom or bust type players and taken cause they are the best player available atm. 9-15 is the 50/50 zone. Can get a real good gem player by getting lucky or an average guy or a busy. Where the gold is hidden and some teams get lucky, others not so much. Here's to hoping we keep the 1st round trend going and land another stud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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