Why is it the Canucks are being written off before the puck drops?

[knucklehead91]

First off I would like to appologize for a very long post. I am a huge Canucks fan, I do not write too many posts on the forums but when I do it means I have really put my full beliefs into it as to what I have to say about something. That "something" happens to be the fact that a large portion of "fans" aren't really behind the Canucks and the new management, they do not believe we can win. Enough of the "Sedins are too old" and crying about the trades and already writing Benning off for underselling or overvaluing. In Benning's first full season he was able to prove a lot of doubters wrong by acquiring key pieces via trade/free agency, (Vrbata, Bonino, Dorsett, Sbisa) that increased our depth in a long season and landed us a spot in the playoffs. This upcoming season I see no difference in the regular season outcome, however I believe our playoff fate will be different this time 'round. The reason why I believe this, is due to roster changes amongst the division and our success in our division and our general record and stats in the conference and the division.

The key to winning the Cup has been the bottom 6 FWD's and bottom 4 D having that extra edge that the other team's does not. They way things look right now I really like ours. Now before you all flame away about line comparissons and how they are always changing in the bot 6/4, just for arguements sake take it as its posted, yes other teams will have other players rotating in and out aswell but for now I am just going off of dailyfaceoff.com and I like how we match up with some of the other teams pairings. I feel that we have more depth than the majority of the teams in our division and these comparissons will be the difference as to why we make the playoffs and go past the first round. Last year Calgary played with a horseshoe up their butt, largely outplayed them in the series dictated the pace for the most part and had more zone time, scoring chances and shots. Unfortunately they got the few lucky bounces that made the difference.

ANA BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D VAN BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D

3rd line Cogliano - Rakell - Sekac Kenins/Prust - Horvat - Hansen

4th line Horcoff - Thompson - Jackman Prust/Kenins - Vey - Higgins/Dorsett

2nd Fowler - Despres Hamhuis - Weber

3rd Stoner - Vatanen Sbisa - Bartkowski

CGY BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D VAN BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D

3rd line Raymond - Colborne - Jooris Kenins/Prust - Horvat - Hansen

4th line Ferland - Stajan - Jones Prust/Kenins - Vey - Higgins/Dorsett

2nd Russell - Hamilton Hamhuis - Weber

3rd Engelland - Wideman Sbisa - Bartkowski

LAK BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D VAN BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D

3rd line King - Shore - Brown Kenins/Prust - Horvat - Hansen

4th line Clifford - Lewis - Nolan Prust/Kenins - Vey - Higgins/Dorsett

2nd Martinez - Greene Hamhuis - Weber

3rd McNabb - Forbort Sbisa - Bartkowski

SJS BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D VAN BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D

3rd line Nieto - Wingels - Ward Kenins/Prust - Horvat - Hansen

4th line Brown - Tierney - Smith Prust/Kenins - Vey - Higgins/Dorsett

2nd Martin - Braun Hamhuis - Weber

3rd Dillon - Mueller Sbisa - Bartkowski

EDM BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D VAN BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D

3rd line Korpikoski - Lander - Purcell Kenins/Prust - Horvat - Hansen

4th line Hendricks - Letestu - Klinkhammer Prust/Kenins - Vey - Higgins/Dorsett

2nd Sekera - Fayne Hamhuis - Weber

3rd Ference - Gryba Sbisa - Bartkowski

ARI BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D VAN BOT 6 FWDs/BOT 4 D

3rd line Downie - Gordon - Richardson Kenins/Pust - Horvat - Hansen

4th line Lessio - Vitale - Szwarz Prust/Kenins - Vey - Higgins/Dorsett

2nd Gormley - Michalek Hamhuis - Weber

3rd Grossman - Murphy Sbisa - Bartkowski

Key losses for each team in the division Key additions for each team in the division

ANA: Belesky, Palmieri, Beauchemin, Etem ANA: Bieksa, O'Brien, Hagelin, Stewart, Horcoff

CGY: Bollig, Granlund, Diaz, Byron CGY: Frolik, Hamilton, Bennett (the 18 y/o)

LAK: Williams, Stoll, Richards, Regehr LAK: Sekera, Lucic

VAN: Bieksa, Kassian, Matthias, Richardson VAN: Prust, Bartkowski, Baertschi (Clendenning, Corrado, Grenier and potentially one of our top prospects still to be decided on)

Now three the four players that we are not going have returning next season missed a fair chunk of time and we did well without them so losing them to free agency and trades shouldn't bother you. Bartkowski is a great replacement for Bieksa, Prust will give the 3rd/4th lines the grit that they need and Baertschi once he signs and gets a full season under his belt is going to give the second line the speed and talent that it lacked on the left wing last year. I think the combination of Baer/Bones/Burr could be deadly, all three have a good shot, speed, passing and could work well down low and create lots of space.

VAN's record within the division last year: 16 - 9 - 2 (71GF, 79GA)

VAN's record versus teams that made the playoffs in the division: 4 - 3 -1 (16GF, 19GA)

VAN's record within the conference last year: 26 - 19 - 2 (135GF, 145GA)

VAN's record versus teams that made the playoffs in the conference: 13 - 9 - 1 (65GF, 66 GA)

We had some bad losses last year where we were whooped pretty bad, but our record does not show that, it shows us with a winning record, despite being outscored in the division and conference.

VAN's team stats within the conference

5th in points: 101

3rd in goals for: 242

8th in goals against: 222

VAN's team stats league wide

2nd on PK: 85.7%

9th on PP: 19.3%

7th in Wins: 48

8th in points: 101

6th in ROW's: 42 (21 Home wins/21 Road wins)

7th in Goals for: 242

8th in GF/PG: 2.88

17th in Goals against: 222

19th in GA/PG: 2.68

29th in F/O%: 46.7% (Now this is one stat that is really ugly, but we did lose Richardson for quite some time so I don't want to sound the alarm bells quite yet)

This past season was exceptionally low in scoring league wide 87pts being the highest total.

Henrik and Daniel were both in the TOP 15 IN THE LEAGUE! So how in the hell are they "too old" or regressing into 60pt scorers.

Daniel was 9th overall with 76pts (20g, 56a)

Henrik was 13th overall with 73pts (18g, 55a)

Vrbata was in a 4 way tie for 12th with 31goals (63pts) and 35th overall in points. We still have an exceptional top line that is only going to build more chemistry over the off-season and throughout the upcoming season.

We have made minimal changes to our roster, the guys we added bring the same qualities that left. If the roster we had last year could achieve those rankings, then how the hell could this years roster NOT. We will have a stronger 2nd/3rd and 4th line than last years. Our D has lost Bieksa's leadership and experience but has not lost a playmaker or anything of that sort. Bartkowski will be an upgrade from Bieksa in terms of playmaking and with Corrado and Clendenning getting signed this year they will get their chances with injuries/call ups to maintain the blueline and may even enhance it with their playmaking and skating abillities.

As you already know, we have two chances to make the playoffs, either be in the top 3 in the division or grab one of the two wildcard spots. All we need to focus on is our division and let everything else take care of itself.

(This is only used for example)

We haven't lost much in terms of players when it comes to game changers.

Chicago has to fill huge holes, losing Sharp, Vermette and Saad is going to be tough to replace especially with those new contracts kicking in for Toews and Kane. We let Matthias and Richardson walk, traded Kassian who has back problems and Bieksa. In return we got some similar talent and grit. Its not like we traded any snipers or top end prospects. Kassian could be a difference maker, but he hasn't quite found himself in the NHL and is already experiencing back issues at 22y/o so I do not mind the trade from a business standpoint. We lost fan favorites and yes it sucked to see Bieksa, Kassian and Lack go, definitely those 3 were my favorite characters. It was a blast to see Kassian's goal face cele's change from game to game during that streak he went on, sadly its time to move on and wish him the best, along with Bieksa and Lack. All I can hope for is that Bieksa returns to Vancouver only to retire.

Anyhow, I could keep on ranting but I think I am all typed out. I really truly believe this team still has what it takes and with a few bounces our way who's to say we couldn't go all the way? Keep the faith, believe in this team and support the new managements moves with full belief it is going to work and it will all work out. (also....my appologies for any dead end sentences)

GO CANUCKS GO!!

[Kevin Biestra]

Roster changes amongst the division being a reason you expect the Canucks to do better??

Those roster changes around the division made all the other teams much better. It works against the Canucks, plus the Canucks have not improved, but rather regressed.

People aren't pulling their predictions for a worse season out of thin air. Maybe the Canucks will actually do better next year, but nothing about the roster changes on the Canucks or the other teams points in that direction.

[Canucks_fo_life]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Canucks as a playoff team, lots of good pieces still in place plus a huge factor which is more YOUTH, Bieksa will be replaced by a younger more energetic defenceman, he's past his prime, it was time to part ways, I'm not expecting a cup, but I will be thinking cup contender by 2019 or 2020 once all our prospects will have developed.

[Kevin Biestra]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Canucks as a playoff team, lots of good pieces still in place plus a huge factor which is more YOUTH, Bieksa will be replaced by a younger more energetic defenceman, he's past his prime, it was time to part ways, I'm not expecting a cup, but I will be thinking cup contender by 2019 or 2020 once all our prospects will have developed.

Bieksa's gone but that isn't a good thing in terms of next year's performance. Whoever steps in to replace him from within the ranks isn't going to be an upgrade.

[Zuongo]

EVERY THREAD IS THE SAME DISCUSSION.

[5Fivehole0]

First off I would like to appologize for a very long post. I am a huge Canucks fan, I do not write too many posts on the forums but when I do it means I am really bothered about something. That "something" happens to be the fact that a large portion of "fans" are hardly behind the Canucks and the new management. Enough of the "Sedins are too old" and crying about the trades and already writing Benning off for underselling or overvaluing. In Benning's first full season he was able to prove a lot of doubters wrong by acquiring key pieces via trade/free agency, (Vrbata, Bonino, Dorsett, Sbisa) that increased our depth in a long season and landed us a spot in the playoffs. This upcoming season I see no difference in the regular season outcome, however I believe our playoff fate will be different this time 'round. The reason why I believe this, is due to roster changes amongst the division, our success in our division and our general record and stats in the conference and the division.

BOT 6 FWD's

Great post!

But it's because pessimists think they are realists.

[Tigs]

Great post!

But it's because pessimists think they are realists.

No. It's because people are too blinded by their homer glasses to not see the situation the team is in.

Will we do good? Probably not, especially when compared to the rest of the conference. Is there a chance for them to surprise us? There is always a chance, just realistically when you look at all the factors (age of key members, last year's play, players lost in the offseason, depth) we are currently in a transition stage.

[jejejester]

Doesn't mean people don't stand behind this team. They just don't think this team right now has what it takes. All team go through highs and lows, we're just in a time between our old core and our new core. We all hope we win the Stanley Cup every year, but that just is not realistic. 29 teams have to lose for 1 team to win. I personally don't think the team right now is good enough to be that last team standing. Doesn't mean I'm cheering against them or not behind them.

[Warhippy]

Last year our playoffs were predicated on the lackluster play and injuries of the Sharks, Stars and Kings. We also had a new coach, new system no Torts. As well as the benefit of a weaker Calgary and Edmonton team.

This year San Jose and LA are wildcards, but the Stars are healthy, Calgary (goal tending aside) appears to be on the rise and it appears as though should the big 4 click right away; that Edmonton might be a competitive team this year.

We have watched most of our division and the conference get deeper, younger faster and a shade tougher.

We have to contend with the immediate top 4 of St Louis, Nashville, Chicago and Anaheim. The next group being Minnesota, Dallas, Calgary, LA, San Jose, Winnipeg, Colorado, and Edmonton. Amazingly Arizona as well as for whatever reason, no matter how bad they are they play us very tough and very tight.

We are doing this with the same core of now 1 year older forwards. A few rookies on the bottom 6. No clear 2nd line center. No clear #1 D and relying on an older Hammer, Burrows, Sedins and Vrbata to get it done.

We have a solid infusion of exciting youth coming as well but we are pinning the season on the introduction of a few kid forwards and D men. Against this group of teams in the west all vying for the bottom 4 spots we will be very hard pressed to be a clear cut playoff contender. Let alone a lock.

Should Coach Willy fail to match some of these teams strats. Size, speed and competitiveness; should we suffer any one major injury to a twin Vrbata Miller or Hammer/Edler/Tanev we are unable to absorb that single player loss that the rest of the aforementioned teams can.

Nobody really wants our team to suck. But sports are cyclical, teams rise and fall. We don't have the depth to absorb the loss of a key player, relying on rookies, it isn't so much being written off so much as it is the blinders finally coming off and reality setting in that we aren't the end all be all we were the last decade anymore

[Team Bagues]

Clearly the puck needs to drop.

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

apparently the sky did actually fall but no one warned us...complete write off...

[Gollumpus]

Great post!

But it's because pessimists think they are realists.

While there is a good argument to be made that the Canucks haven't "improved" as much as some other teams (if at all), there is also a great deal of truth in your statement.

I suspect that the Canucks (right now) have a team which will challenge for a playoff spot in 2015 - 16. This does not say that they will challenge for the President's trophy, but they can claim a 6th, 7th or 8th place. Whether this challenge is advisable or not is not the issue.

Things like injuries (for both the Canucks and the other teams) will be of great significance in determining how successful the Canucks will be next year. It will also determine whether or not the team becomes buyers, but more likely sellers at the trade deadline.

If the Canucks are doing well (and yes, there is that possibility even if someone prefers to think it is a slight one), would they then pass on a playoff run in order to trade players who are pending UFAs (eg. Hamhuis and Vrbata)? This would give the team an improved draft position, as well as the assets acquired in trade. I'd put this tactic in the same category as deliberately tanking over a season in hopes of getting a lottery draft pick.

To make it an even easier choice for the team, people who are leaning towards full re-build should start wishing for a number of little, nagging injuries which would slow the team down in the early part of the season, and which would then start to clear up by the deadline.

Personally, I want them to stay healthy and go for the playoffs.

regards,

G.

[JamesB]

Last year our playoffs were predicated on the lackluster play and injuries of the Sharks, Stars and Kings. We also had a new coach, new system no Torts. As well as the benefit of a weaker Calgary and Edmonton team.

This year San Jose and LA are wildcards, but the Stars are healthy, Calgary (goal tending aside) appears to be on the rise and it appears as though should the big 4 click right away; that Edmonton might be a competitive team this year.

We have watched most of our division and the conference get deeper, younger faster and a shade tougher.

We have to contend with the immediate top 4 of St Louis, Nashville, Chicago and Anaheim. The next group being Minnesota, Dallas, Calgary, LA, San Jose, Winnipeg, Colorado, and Edmonton. Amazingly Arizona as well as for whatever reason, no matter how bad they are they play us very tough and very tight.

We are doing this with the same core of now 1 year older forwards. A few rookies on the bottom 6. No clear 2nd line center. No clear #1 D and relying on an older Hammer, Burrows, Sedins and Vrbata to get it done.

We have a solid infusion of exciting youth coming as well but we are pinning the season on the introduction of a few kid forwards and D men. Against this group of teams in the west all vying for the bottom 4 spots we will be very hard pressed to be a clear cut playoff contender. Let alone a lock.

Should Coach Willy fail to match some of these teams strats. Size, speed and competitiveness; should we suffer any one major injury to a twin Vrbata Miller or Hammer/Edler/Tanev we are unable to absorb that single player loss that the rest of the aforementioned teams can.

Nobody really wants our team to suck. But sports are cyclical, teams rise and fall. We don't have the depth to absorb the loss of a key player, relying on rookies, it isn't so much being written off so much as it is the blinders finally coming off and reality setting in that we aren't the end all be all we were the last decade anymore

Good post. As I argued in a previous thread, based on player development data, the Canuck youth movement is likely to have a significant positive effect on the team until 2016-17 at the earliest.

Usually young guys are only marginal contributors in their first season. Baertschi, Clendening and Corrado will probably make the team, Virtanen will probably get a few games, and Grenier, Shink, Gaunce, Cassels and Pedan will all be waiting in Utica and may be an injury call-up, but none of those guys is likely to be a key player for the Canucks next year. We are looking at 2 or 3 years down road for any of those players to become core players. The only young guy who has a reasonable chance of entering the core and having a significant positive effect next year is Horvat. And that is unlikely to be enough to offset the cumulative aging effect of the veterans who are well into age-related decline.

Maybe things go really well next season. Maybe Miller has a great bounce-back season, etc. There is always a chance. But that is not likely. Recognizing these issues does not disqualify someone as a "fan".

[zverta]

Won't be for a while for this team to see a true playoff run. The Sedins will keep us afloat for a few more years before retirement, but the young kids will need time to grow--regardless of whether or not they're in the line-up.

Monahan and Gaudreau have only been in the league a combined 3 years. Also, they're potentially far above any prospects that we have in our pitiful pool.

Yes, the cupboards are no longer bare, but come talk to me about having a respectable cupboard when we have someone like an Eichel, Reinhart, McDavid, Matthews, in it.

No Toews or Kane? No Cups Chicago.

[Canucks_fo_life]

Won't be for a while for this team to see a true playoff run. The Sedins will keep us afloat for a few more years before retirement, but the young kids will need time to grow--regardless of whether or not they're in the line-up.

Monahan and Gaudreau have only been in the league a combined 3 years. Also, they're potentially far above any prospects that we have in our pitiful pool.

Yes, the cupboards are no longer bare, but come talk to me about having a respectable cupboard when we have someone like an Eichel, Reinhart, McDavid, Matthews, in it.

No Toews or Kane? No Cups Chicago.

Because teams like Edmonton, Calgary, and Chicago have had 5-6 year slides where they've been at the bottom of the league, the Canucks have been competitive for 15 straight years missing the playoffs only 3 times in that span

[desiboynux4lifee*******]

OILERS,FLAMES, AVS, DALLAS AND LA GOT BETTER. DUCKS ARE STILL GOOD

FLAMES LOOK LIKE A PLAYOFF TEAM, SO ASK YOURSELF THE TOP 8 STANDINGS IN THE WEST. JUST ASK YOURSELF SITTING THERE AND BE HONEST.

CHICAGO, MINNESOTA, ANAHEIM, CALGARY, STLOUS, WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, SO THAT LEAVES THE WILD CARD RACE BETWEEN LA, DALLAS, AVLANCHE, NASHVILLE AND MAYBE OILERS. SO ASK YOURSELF THIS HONEST QUESTION DO YOU SEE DALLAS OR LA MISSING THE PLAYOFFS? OH YES I FORGOT TO MENTION WINNIPEG, THE POINT IS TEAMS AROUND GOT BETTER AND WE DIDN'T IMPROVE.

[Gollumpus]

OILERS,FLAMES, AVS, DALLAS AND LA GOT BETTER. DUCKS ARE STILL GOOD

FLAMES LOOK LIKE A PLAYOFF TEAM, SO ASK YOURSELF THE TOP 8 STANDINGS IN THE WEST. JUST ASK YOURSELF SITTING THERE AND BE HONEST.

CHICAGO, MINNESOTA, ANAHEIM, CALGARY, STLOUS, WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, SO THAT LEAVES THE WILD CARD RACE BETWEEN LA, DALLAS, AVLANCHE, NASHVILLE AND MAYBE OILERS. SO ASK YOURSELF THIS HONEST QUESTION DO YOU SEE DALLAS OR LA MISSING THE PLAYOFFS? OH YES I FORGOT TO MENTION WINNIPEG, THE POINT IS TEAMS AROUND GOT BETTER AND WE DIDN'T IMPROVE.

Sorry, didn't quite get that...

regards,

G.

[Wilbur]

First off I would like to appologize for a very long post. I am a huge Canucks fan, I do not write too many posts on the forums but when I do it means I am really bothered about something. That "something" happens to be the fact that a large portion of "fans" are hardly behind the Canucks and the new management. Enough of the "Sedins are too old" and crying about the trades and already writing Benning off for underselling or overvaluing. In Benning's first full season he was able to prove a lot of doubters wrong by acquiring key pieces via trade/free agency, (Vrbata, Bonino, Dorsett, Sbisa) that increased our depth in a long season and landed us a spot in the playoffs. This upcoming season I see no difference in the regular season outcome, however I believe our playoff fate will be different this time 'round. The reason why I believe this, is due to roster changes amongst the division, our success in our division and our general record and stats in the conference and the division.

BOT 6 FWD's

The team had, what, 104pts last season? Considering how last season went (fairly smooth ride) and with the moves made this off-season (slowly transitioning into rebuild phase) I don't see them getting more points than last year but I don't see them falling off a cliff either. I feel similarly to Gollumpus, they will most likely compete for a playoff spot. What side of it is hard to say.

As for why people are whiny? It's because the Canucks didn't turn our early to mid 30s vets into the next Connor McDavid or Aaron Ekblad. Seriously though, they all want hope for the future and they figure the best way is to raze the team to the ground (except for maybe the Sedin's) and hope like hell the resulting high draft picks will bring us out the current malaise. Rebuilding or retooling a team isn't like ripping off a band-aid though. It takes time and patience. Benning is getting there.

[Wilbur]

Sorry, didn't quite get that...

regards,

G.

He said

"EVERY TEAM IN THE CONFERENCE GOT WAY BETTER. EVERY SINGLE MOVE THEY MADE WILL PAN OUT. THEY WON'T SUFFER INJURIES, AND EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEIR YOUNG PLAYERS WILL DOUBLE THEIR PRODUCTION WHILE OUR YOUNG PLAYERS WON'T GET A CHANCE TO PLAY BECAUSE CHRIS HIGGINS IS STILL ON THE TEAM."

[dura_mater]

He said

"EVERY TEAM IN THE CONFERENCE GOT WAY BETTER. EVERY SINGLE MOVE THEY MADE WILL PAN OUT. THEY WON'T SUFFER INJURIES, AND EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEIR YOUNG PLAYERS WILL DOUBLE THEIR PRODUCTION WHILE OUR YOUNG PLAYERS WON'T GET A CHANCE TO PLAY BECAUSE CHRIS HIGGINS IS STILL ON THE TEAM."

I'm not sure why you're being so hard on Desi, he's right. It's a long shot, especially will the improvement in our conference.