Cap Hell for Canucks!!! (GREAT NEWS from Daly re: CAP for next year!!)

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, Alflives said:

Myers last three seasons, with this one included, plays over 90%. 

And I'd guess that both Edler and Tanev are having great and relatively healthy seasons so far - because Myers and Hughes are helping with the heavy lifting...makes a difference. 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, appleboy said:

Cap troubles are always solved by drafting well. When you can fill supporting cast roles from your farm team you don't need to over commit to that type of a player. 

Sutter ,Beagle , Rousell and any depth defense should all be supplied from within your organization.  Benning did not have that option because there was nothing left for him to work with. 

Now the key for the Canucks is to continue to draft well going forward. To keep our own picks as much as possible. As some of these expensive role players come to the end of their contracts we need to have replacements from within. 

Pretty much says it all.   Another source seems to be emerging too, that is experienced older vets with good hockey still in them, that have already made piles of dough and willing to take close to or the league minimum on one year deals to keep playing - something like 50 UFAs signed one year deals last season... Perry being a good example.   These guys can be used as needed to help balance our books, provide depth and fill gaps to insulate the next wave of prospects we need to fill supporting roles in the bottom six. 

[Noble 6]

1 hour ago, mll said:

1.7M.  Pettersson and Hughes will likely hit their schedule A - it's 850K each.  Pettersson has 2M in schedule B but that's for league wide performance like winning a major award or being top-10 in scoring - seems less likely this season.   

 

End of season cap space for now is 30'474.-  with Ferland still on LTIR.   It will increase once everyone is healthy but there's only 35% of the season left at the end of this month - clearing 1M in cap space at the of January would bank 350K in end of season cap space.  

 

 

Thank you for the response. 

 

I guess the question that remains is how exactly does banking cap space work? I know the cap is calculated daily, so is the banked cap space the average of the team's daily cap space (excluding LTIR)?

 

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Yes... either $1.7 or $3.7 if Petterson hits any schedule B bonus targets.  We have a projected $30k in cap space, and you can’t use LTIR space to pay the ELC bonuses.  You can’t bank cap space while in LTIR.

 

So basically ALL of those earned bonuses get pushed into next year, dropping what we can spend.  The further complication is that any bonuses earned next year simply cannot be pushed into 2021-22 because we will be in a really tight cap crunch having to pay Petterson and Hughes on their next contracts.  So, assuming Juolevi is on the team as a top 6, you could be looking at more ELC oerofmabr bonuses than this year... dropping what we can spend by another couple of million at least, or more if Petterson gets a $2 million bonus.

 

Schedule-B bonuses the team and the player can negotiate (maximum total is US$2 million per year)
1. Finishing in the top five for Hart, Norris, Selke and Richard.
2. Finishing in the top three for Calder and Lady Byng.
3. Making the first- or second-team all-star group.
4. Winning the Conn Smythe.
5. Finishing in the top 10 among in goals, assists or points.
6. Finishing in the top 10 in points-per-game (must play 42 games).
7. Finishing in the top 10 in average time-on-ice (must play 42 games).

 

Thank you for the response.

 

Pettersson has been named an All-Star already, doesn't that count as reaching a schedule B bonus? There's also been light talk that Pettersson could be up for the Lady Byng. That would definitely qualify as a schedule B bonus correct?

 

I just looked and it looks like Hughes doesn't have any schedule B bonuses, which is good because he would have definitely hit two of them being an All Star and virtual lock to finish top 3 in Calder voting. On the other hand, when Hughes' camp is negotiating his next contract (which will be substantially larger) they can claim that they already gave management a break by not having schedule B performance bonuses in the deal. It would make him less likely to take any sort of discount on his next deal. That was the exact situation that played out this past summer with Marner and the Leafs. 

 

This type of cap management has been the weakest part of this regime in my opinion. Now we are really have to clear some cap space this summer to bring back our key UFAs (Tanev, Markstrom) and retain our current RFAs (Virtanen and Gaudette). Stetcher is as good as gone given the rumors surrounding him at the start of the year and our cap situation, which is a shame and an example of the consequences of poor cap management. We're also going to need to sign or replace guys like Motte, Schaller, Leivo and possibly Markstrom or Tanev if they don't re-sign. 

[wildcam]

Stetcher  - 3.4 millions 4 yrs will be traded.. 3 rd pick

Lievo , Motte traded in package..

Scheller not resigned

Beartchi 3.4 million will be traded - Vancouver to will retain 1.4 million

Sutter will be moved in trade only 1 yr left in contract...

 

Markstrom 5.3 x 4 yrs - clause in deal for first year to trade at expansion yr 2, 3, 4 limited 14 teams of his choice

Virtanen 4yrs x 3.3 million

Gaudette 1.2 million 1st yr - 1.5  million 2nd yr --- 2 year contract show me deal..

Tanev -- 4 yrs - x 4.9 million home discount deal?  Might be traded in package possible..

 

Rafferty and Juolevi make team out of camp next October.. Big 6'4 , 215-  Zack MacEwen makes team 4th line

 

Jim Benning and group will get it done....

Edited January 24, 2020 by wildcam

[linden17]

9 hours ago, HKSR said:

I sure hope not, he brings so much for a 5th or 6th defenceman.  RHD, good puck mover, plays at 110% every shift, can move into the Top 4 for periods of time if need be.  He's perfect for the role.

There’s that classic Canucks fan delusional opinion of a mediocre player.

[Provost]

32 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Thank you for the response. 

 

I guess the question that remains is how exactly does banking cap space work? I know the cap is calculated daily, so is the banked cap space the average of the team's daily cap space (excluding LTIR)?

 

 

Thank you for the response.

 

Pettersson has been named an All-Star already, doesn't that count as reaching a schedule B bonus? There's also been light talk that Pettersson could be up for the Lady Byng. That would definitely qualify as a schedule B bonus correct?

 

I just looked and it looks like Hughes doesn't have any schedule B bonuses, which is good because he would have definitely hit two of them being an All Star and virtual lock to finish top 3 in Calder voting. On the other hand, when Hughes' camp is negotiating his next contract (which will be substantially larger) they can claim that they already gave management a break by not having schedule B performance bonuses in the deal. It would make him less likely to take any sort of discount on his next deal. That was the exact situation that played out this past summer with Marner and the Leafs. 

 

This type of cap management has been the weakest part of this regime in my opinion. Now we are really have to clear some cap space this summer to bring back our key UFAs (Tanev, Markstrom) and retain our current RFAs (Virtanen and Gaudette). Stetcher is as good as gone given the rumors surrounding him at the start of the year and our cap situation, which is a shame and an example of the consequences of poor cap management. We're also going to need to sign or replace guys like Motte, Schaller, Leivo and possibly Markstrom or Tanev if they don't re-sign. 

I was actually surprised that Hughes didn’t have schedule B bonuses, it was Mll that set me right on that.  Top picks have them often enough that I just assumed.   Juolevi actually has some Schedule B bonuses for this year as an example.

 

Cap space is only accrued by being under the cap each day of the season with all your roster salaries (including injured players).

 

LTIR doesn’t increase the cap and it doesn’t create cap space, it just allows you to go over the cap.  You only get LTIR if you are up against the cap... so it really has no impact on ELC bonuses.

 

You are right about Petterson, I am not so sanguine as Mll about him not hitting a schedule B bonus.  He just had to hit one and he gets the full $2 million.  Top 3 in Lady Byng voting?  Maybe.  Top 10

in scoring for forwards, it takes him getting hot or a couple of the guys above him getting long term injuries.

 

The NHL awards first and second all star teams are different from all-Star game

selection, so it is not a schedule B bonus (all star game is a schedule A).

 

It all adds up to a possible significant headache cap wise.  A good problem to have, but a real Impetus to get rid of Eriksson (Or equivalent dead or inefficient cap) now even if the cost is high to do so.  It is really our only chance to avoid getting worse in the short term.

Moving out Eriksson before the deadline really saves us around $7.7 million off next year’s cap (the pushed bonuses plus his salary) which is huge.  Waiting until July 1st reduces those saving and destroys our ability to re-sign our pending UFAs before they hit the open market.

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Provost

[bullishfor2012]

8 hours ago, theo5789 said:

This is the whole Hutton issue all over again. If that's his expectations, then good luck to him getting that. What he is getting paid currently is likely his value for his next contract. If he wants to wait on a deal that pays more, he can wait and be forced to take a one year cheap deal to prove his worth on another team. RFAs can come to terms before exercising their RFA rights. We could simply not qualify him and either he takes our best offer or he can try UFA (and this applies to any team that possibly trades for him).

This^^^^^is the best move for the Canucks brass when it comes to Stecher on July 1.  I would even argue that at his current AAV, Stecher is overpaid.

[Johnny Torts]

Not worried at all about something someone else is getting paid BANK to worry about.

 

Really, caps coming off the books caps going on the books just relax have a beer call up Dubas ffs. We are FINE. 
 

 

 

[Noble 6]

4 minutes ago, Provost said:

I was actually surprised that Hughes didn’t have schedule B bonuses, it was Mll that set me right on that.  Top picks have them often enough that I just assumed.   Juolevi actually has some Schedule B bonuses for this year as an example.

 

Cap space is only accrued by being under the cap each day of the season with all your roster salaries (including injured players).

 

LTIR doesn’t increase the cap and it doesn’t create cap space, it just allows you to go over the cap.  You only get LTIR if you are up against the cap... so it really has no impact on ELC bonuses.

 

You are right about Petterson, I am not so sanguine as Mll about him not hitting a schedule B bonus.  He just had to hit one and he gets the full $2 million.  Top 3 in Lady Byng voting?  Maybe.  Top 10

in scoring for forwards, it takes him getting hot or a couple of the guys above him getting long term injuries.

 

The NHL awards first and second all star teams are different from all-Star game

selection, so it is not a schedule B bonus (all star game is a schedule A).

 

It all adds up to a possible significant headache cap wise.  A good problem to have, but a real Impetus to get rid of Eriksson (Or equivalent dead or inefficient cap) now even if the cost is high to do so.  It is really our only chance to avoid getting worse in the short term.

 

 

 

I just want to make sure I understand what you mean regarding the bolded. You're saying that if a team has to use LTIR, then they are already tight to the cap and therfore couldn't bank a significant amount of cap space anyways, correct?

 

Regarding Pettersson, I would imagine that being named to the All-Star game (not being voted in, actually being originally selected for it) would be reason enough to believe that he would be named to the first or second All-Star team. It sounds like there's a decent chance that Pettersson will hit his schedule B bonuses one way or another and we should definitely be prepared for it. Given that the Canucks have banked an insignificant amount of cap space, it sounds like we should expect around 3.5 million in overages for next season, is that fair?

 

I figured we would have to get rid of Sutter and Baertschi and possibly lose Stetcher for us to bring back the important parts of this year's team, but operating with an extra 2 million in dead cap and with an internal limit of 2+ million below the cap to account for performance bonuses next year means we might have to do even more. That's terrible really for a team that has just pulled itself out of the basement for 1 year. 

 

[Provost]

1 minute ago, bullishfor2012 said:

This^^^^^is the best move for the Canucks brass when it comes to Stecher on July 1.  I would even argue that at his current AAV, Stecher is overpaid.

Except he makes every pairing better by the numbers.  He played 30 minutes a night as a top pairing guy during injuries and we didn’t see a drop off at all.  

He may not fit well as part of our pairings going forward, but letting him go UFA is just stupid.  He isn’t Hutton, he will have lots of good offers form the many teams who are short on D.

 

If he doesn’t fit our plans, trading his rights gets us back at least a 3rd round pick.  He would be valued as at least a high end 3rd pairing guy by a lot of teams and garner interest.

[theo5789]

9 minutes ago, bullishfor2012 said:

This^^^^^is the best move for the Canucks brass when it comes to Stecher on July 1.  I would even argue that at his current AAV, Stecher is overpaid.

If we don't trade him, this is most likely the route we take as we did with Hutton. Stecher is unfortunately in a very replaceable spot. He's all heart and I'd hate to see him go, but if he wants north of his current salary, we can't afford it and not sure if it can justified. I agree that he's slightly overpaid, but not much. I think a 2 million per year deal is fair if he's willing to take that to stay here. If not then I wish him the best with his future team.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

7 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

I just want to make sure I understand what you mean regarding the bolded. You're saying that if a team has to use LTIR, then they are already tight to the cap and therfore couldn't bank a significant amount of cap space anyways, correct?

 

That's how I understand it.  Course I got my knowledge of the law from watching Perry Mason.

[Provost]

11 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

I just want to make sure I understand what you mean regarding the bolded. You're saying that if a team has to use LTIR, then they are already tight to the cap and therfore couldn't bank a significant amount of cap space anyways, correct?

 

Regarding Pettersson, I would imagine that being named to the All-Star game (not being voted in, actually being originally selected for it) would be reason enough to believe that he would be named to the first or second All-Star team. It sounds like there's a decent chance that Pettersson will hit his schedule B bonuses one way or another and we should definitely be prepared for it. Given that the Canucks have banked an insignificant amount of cap space, it sounds like we should expect around 3.5 million in overages for next season, is that fair?

 

I figured we would have to get rid of Sutter and Baertschi and possibly lose Stetcher for us to bring back the important parts of this year's team, but operating with an extra 2 million in dead cap and with an internal limit of 2+ million below the cap to account for performance bonuses next year means we might have to do even more. That's terrible really for a team that has just pulled itself out of the basement for 1 year. 

 

Yes, it means we are right against the cap and can’t bank cap.  If we were $5 million under the cap and got a big injury where a $5 million dollar player was out long term, we get zero LTIR relief.

 

The first or second team all star is actually really hard to get.  It would mean him being selected as one of he top two centres in the league... he probably wouldn’t quite make top 5 yet.

I think there isn’t an insignificant

chance he makes a bonus, but probably not.  We should be prepared for him hitting it next year though, so same thing with having to leave a buffer to avoid pushing that bonus.  I wouldn’t bet against him being a top 10 scorer next year.

 

All the details aside, yes... we are in much worse shape than the OP suggests.  Barring some moves, we will ice progressively worse rosters for the next two years.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Provost

[bullishfor2012]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Except he makes every pairing better by the numbers.  He played 30 minutes a night as a top pairing guy during injuries and we didn’t see a drop off at all.  

He may not fit well as part of our pairings going forward, but letting him go UFA is just stupid.  He isn’t Hutton, he will have lots of good offers form the many teams who are short on D.

 

If he doesn’t fit our plans, trading his rights gets us back at least a 3rd round pick.  He would be valued as at least a high end 3rd pairing guy by a lot of teams and garner interest.

I should have qualified my statement with "if he makes it past TDL".  

 

I'm of the opinion that the 30 mins he played as a top pairing guy last season was decent, but would not have been sustainable.  Both he and Hutton did an admirable job when pushed into the first pairing last season.  Thank goodness it was only for a very short term.

 

I think Stecher is at his best if he plays about 16 minutes a game.  That makes him what he is -- a third pairing d-man on most teams.  At the risk of saying something very unpopular, I see Stecher's career trajectory looking more like Alex Biega's than someone like Torey Krug's/Jared Spurgeon's.  And believe it or not, I've been rooting for Stecher since he joined the Canucks.

[Noble 6]

4 minutes ago, Provost said:

Yes, it means we are right against the cap and can’t bank cap.  If we were $5 million under the cap and got a big injury where a $5 million dollar player was out long term, we get zero LTIR relief.

 

The first or second team all star is actually really hard to get.  It would mean him being selected as one of he top two centres in the league... he probably wouldn’t quite make top 5 yet.

I think there isn’t an insignificant

chance he makes a bonus, but probably not.  We should be prepared for him hitting it next year though, so same thing with having to leave a buffer to avoid pushing that bonus.  I wouldn’t bet against him being a top 10 scorer next year.

 

All the details aside, yes... we are in much worse shape than the OP suggests.  Barring some moves, we will ice progressively worse rosters for the next two years.

 

I wasn't aware that it was only the top 2 centers in the league. I would then agree that it's unlikely Pettersson hits that. That just means we have to wait until the top 10 scoring leaders for the year are determined and the nominees for the NHL Awards are announced to be absolutely certain. I wouldn't bet on either of those things happening, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did happen either. 

 

Best Case Scenario: 1.7M in bonuses + 4M internal cap = 5.7 million in essentially dead cap space next year just looking at bonuses. 

Worst Case Scenario: 3.7M in bonuses + 4M internal cap = 7.7 million in essentially dead cap space next year just looking at bonuses. 

 

We're looking at the bad or the ugly. 

[Provost]

24 minutes ago, bullishfor2012 said:

I should have qualified my statement with "if he makes it past TDL".  

 

I'm of the opinion that the 30 mins he played as a top pairing guy last season was decent, but would not have been sustainable.  Both he and Hutton did an admirable job when pushed into the first pairing last season.  Thank goodness it was only for a very short term.

 

I think Stecher is at his best if he plays about 16 minutes a game.  That makes him what he is -- a third pairing d-man on most teams.  At the risk of saying something very unpopular, I see Stecher's career trajectory looking more like Alex Biega's than someone like Torey Krug's/Jared Spurgeon's.  And believe it or not, I've been rooting for Stecher since he joined the Canucks.

We can still trade his rights after the deadline like at the draft.

 

I don’t think his 30 minutes a night was sustainable either, but only a handful of guys in the league can play those minutes.

What was startling though is that Hutton quickly got buried and fell apart with those higher end minutes.  Stecher had no drop off in his metrics at all, he handled it just fine.  He has also excelled anytime when put on the top line with Edler which has been for long stretches.  This year has been an anomaly with his low ice time, but he is getting more ice time and games at 18-20 minutes after being used really sparingly early on in the season.

 

On a good team he is a 3rd pairing D.  Unfortunately we don’t have better options and can’t afford to get any with our cap situation.  We could quite possibly end up just sucking up whatever 1 year arbitration award with him in our top 4 next year.  He has proven a lot more than Tryamkin or Rafferty in a top 4 spot, and Tanev seems to be out of our price range in both the short and long term.

 

Hughes-Myers

Edler-Stecher

Juolevi-Benn

Tryamkin

 

Worse than this year, but better than pretty much any alternative available to us.  The only out is to trade away enough cap space and “hope” to get Tanev on a short term deal at about $5 million AAV.  Then any of our other options like Rafferty or Tryamkin can more easily fill a 3rd pairing spot.

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Provost

[HKSR]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

So adding back in the Benn and Baertschi contracts we have, and don’t just disappear without moves being made (and taking away an ELC because Benn is still there)... and adding in the pushed ELC bonuses from THiS year... you are at around $86.5 million.

The December BOG meeting made it sound like the cap will be between $82.5-$83.5, so you are still $3-4 million over the cap.

 

Then add in the fact we definitely can’t afford to push next year’s bonuses into 2021-22 (when we are hit with Petterson and Hughes next contracts) we have to keep a buffer for them under next year’s cap.  Say that is another at least $2 million minimum and quite probably

much more if Juolevi is in our top 6

or Petterson has a good year.

So now we are $5-7 million over what we can spend to the cap next year.

 

That is a full Eriksson, and maybe a tiny bit of buffer for short term injury call ups.

 

The math works no other way than we have to get rid of Eriksson or get rid of both Baertschi and Sutter.  Otherwise we are looking at icing progressively worse rosters for the next two seasons.

Your math only spells doom and gloom because you're assuming we won't be able to trade Benn and Baertschi.  They both have value and in fact could very well be traded at this TDL.

 

So sticking with my original post that includes Benn and Baertschi being moved, and as I mentioned in a follow up post of moving Stecher if necessary, and my original cap estimate for next year, we would have between $2.5 - $3.5m in cap space. That's plenty of space to work with for bonuses.

 

So the only player we'd be losing that has been playing lately would be Stecher.  Hardly seems like we'd be that much of a worse team than this year given the progression of our young superstars.

[bullishfor2012]

13 minutes ago, Provost said:

We can still trade his rights after the deadline like at the draft.

 

I don’t think his 30 minutes a night was sustainable either, but only a handful of guys in the league can play those minutes.

What was startling though is that Hutton quickly got buried and fell apart with those higher end minutes.  Stecher has no drop off in his metrics at all, he handled it just fine.  He has also excelled anytime when put on the top line with Edler which has been for long stretches.
 

On a good team he is a 3rd pairing D.  Unfortunately we don’t have better options and can’t afford to get any with our cap situation.  We could quite possibly end up just sucking up whatever 1 year arbitration award with him in our top 4 next year.  He has proven a lot more than Tryamkin or Rafferty in a top 4 spot, and Tanev seems to be out of our price range in both the short and long term.

 

Hughes-Myers

Edler-Stecher

Juolevi-Benn

Tryamkin

 

Worse than this year, but better than pretty much any alternative available to us.  The only out is to trade away enough cap space and “hope” to get Tanev on a short term deal at about $5 million AAV.

 

Can't say that I would be thrilled to see the back end look as you have listed, but your view of how things may shape out for next season seems realistic enough. Myers on the top pairing and Stecher on the second pairing would definitely be the team's achilles heel.  As good a job as JB and his staff have done, there's still a lot of work to be done (or maybe it's as simple as opportunities given to certain players to shine - i.e., Rafferty, Juolevi, Tryamkin, Brisebois) before the Canucks are bona-fide cup contenders.

[canuktravella]

7 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

2 rookies in the top 6. Yikes.

juolevi is 21 and developed after all the injuries he isnt 18  and rathbone is 21 as well  pretty seasoned 

[Phat Fingers]

17 hours ago, HKSR said:

Honestly, no matter what the media tries to portray, there really isn't major cap hell for the Canucks.  GMJB reiterated that as well. 

Here's what I see for the coming year.  Running the numbers, we'd have $1M+ in cap space left.  If the cap doesn't go up, will likely mean goodbye to Stecher.

 

Honestly, it's the year after (2021-22) that looks more dicey.  With EP40 and QH both getting huge raises, something will have to give. 

 

- Schaller, Leivo, Graovac won't be re-signed.

- Benn, and Baertschi moved.

- Upper Limit of Cap going up by $1M.

- Markstrom @ 5.5M --- some people are saying $6M+... I just don't see it.  That makes him the 8th or 9th highest paid goaltender in the whole league.

- Tanev @ 5M

- Virtanen @ 3.5M

- Gaudette @ 2.5M ("show me" contract)

- Motte @ 1.5M

- Stecher @ 2.5M

- Rookie Defenceman (Rafferty) @ ELC

 

EDIT:  People are also worried about the bonuses for EP40 and QH.  According to the CBA, performance bonuses count against the salary cap; however, a team can exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses by the maximum performance bonus cushion amount of 7.5 percent of the upper limit. With the $81.5M cap, 7.5% amounts to $6.1125M.  However, the overage would reduce the following year's upper cap limit.  As per the CBA:

 

To the extent a Club's Averaged Club Salary exceeds its Upper Limit as a result of: (i) Exhibit 5 Individual "A" Performance Bonuses and "B" Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that may be earned by Players in the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance Bonuses that may be earned by Players pursuant to Section 50.2(b)(i)(C) above, then the Club's Upper Limit for the next League Year shall be reduced by an amount equal to such excess.

 

 

 

Tanev is expiring. Sutter expires next year.  Schaller, Baer, Lievo and Benn are all expiring.  Beagle and Rousell expire around the same time.  

 

The game plan laid out by JB is that expiring contracts are going to be replaced from within.  

 

Tanev leaving due to FA is the only player may have a big impact losing. 

 

Stecher could be dealt, Trymakin signing is another variable. 

 

Eriksson's deal expires in 2 seasons.  Hopefully he just retires and free's up the last year.  

 

I don't see the cap hell yet. 

 

One more season of ELC's and with so many deals expiring and so many younger cheaper players ready to step in, we should be fine.