DSVII

The barometer has usually been around American thanksgiving (~20 game mark). There's been a stat that's always thrown around over the years that ~80% of teams who have a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving end up keeping it.

Would you have the full list of metrics that go into xGAR? As much as I'd love to rag on Myers for his contract is the metric being fair to him as a defenseman who was matched against the other team's top lines (quality of comp)? What are the stats on the defensive side of the game included here if any or is this stat generally geared towards offensive side players? I'm wondering as well what the league average xGAR for defensemen was. Whether it was a net positive or negative.

There's word for this when you've been spouting about how Benning was hamstrung by Gillis and it would take years to fix his mistakes. Then rag on this group not doing much in half a season. Or how everything was fine and dandy with this roster nine months ago and it just needed a different coach but now it needs to be torn down in record time in a cap strapped offseason because new management. Or how a 28 year old defensemen in one regime is old and needs replacements drafted but two 30+ year old defensemen under another is fine with a 27th ranked prospect pool. Not to mention ignoring the value of draft position and how much it helps one regime vs the other. (i.e Benning picking 5th had no advantage vs Gillis picking at 29) Think it starts with an H

The fanbase is more or less patient. The ones crying the loudest are the Benning supporters who are blaming JR for not quickly taking apart the roster they were cheering for 8 months ago.

Six years ago the Avs were dead last in the NHL and sharing the basement with us. Things can change pretty quickly. Our score sounds right. More optimistic but more wait and see.

I think it was a pretty big statement that Aqua flew to JRs house and begged him to come on. JR left Pittsburgh bc of autonomy issues so I'm hopeful at least. That being said. We'll have a better idea by year 2ish.

Firing Torts contributed more to thr turnaround. His year was a blip in a team that made playoffs consistently for half a decade. There was nothing to turn around from. What was needed was a long term strategy and rebuild.

For what he did in Arizona he certainly was one of the worst contracts that only a few teams were willing to take on (and only in exchange for Arizona assets). Let's hope here it's all smooth sailing here with a supportive environment.

I agree. His responsibilities end at setting up the scouting department. There is zero reason as well to allow Benning in any role that has any control or influence over the salary cap with that logic. Absolutely not true. He's humble enough to acknowledge his mistakes and what he should have done. https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/courier-archive/news/mike-gillis-wishes-he-had-changed-the-canucks-scouting-staff-and-system-earlier-3085464 It looks that way because he was an arrogant ass during his time as Gm here that burned a lot of bridges? Sure I'll grant you that. Think that had to do more with ownership not wanting to pay for a president when they could have both in one paycheck. He did bring in Lawerence Gilman who was a wizard with the salary cap. How many GM candidates are slam qualified? That is a very subjective term and you gotta remember the context of that time. There's no guarantee a qualified candidate (who would want autonomy by extension) would want to come work here under Gillis/Aqualini. Especially with an ownership group that had just fired Nonis for refusing to trade Kesler/Edler/Schneider for Brad Richards. http://www.fiveminutesforfighting.com/2010/01/people-vs-dave-nonis.html Just like with Benning, ownership tied Gillis' hands.

Meh from what I'm seeing, the Venn diagram of the portion of this fanbase bringing up the lack of moves after 8 months and those arguing we need patience last year because Benning needed 8+ years to fix Gillis' mistakes is almost one giant circle. Benning certainly didn't understand how to pro-scout his defensemen (Attribution bias. 'Good first pass and tall' = chara) Or the value of cap space. The guy's knowledge of the game is past . He may get another AGM role (i highly doubt this) but it would speak more to his old boys club connections than his past achievements on the Nucks. I'm sure Benning under the right ownership/president may do better, but he's not GM material. GM is more than just player evaluation, but evaluation of the organization and culture and its direction, and the perfect storm of Benning/Weisbrod created a toxic one here. Gillis himself said he was more focused on how to run a modern organization but he neglected the scouting department until it was too late. Maybe Benning will do better in his next role, but as of right now he has no need to, he's still collecting paycheques from Aqua. May he have another chance to prove he learned from his time here.

This fanbase is plenty patient and has shown it is willing to sit through tanking finishes without the picks and prospects to show for it and still stick with the team (2016) We just want hope. The media has driven a lot of this narrative and is part of the pressure bubble of this market unfortunately. Hopefully this new regime isn't taking this artificial pressure as a need to act and make unnecessary moves. Being patient right now is the right approach.

Reading this thread, a very vocal few are confident they know more than a majority of NHL execs and GMs as well when it comes to GMMG https://www.nhl.com/canucks/news/canucks-gillis-named-general-manager-of-the-year/c-566844

All I know is this, ever since Bracket left the team. Benning's traded away two consecutive first round picks (2020/2021), two seconds (2020,2022), and a 3rd (2021). So that's effectively 5 of our 9 top picks in the top 100. From a trade value perspective (i.e 1sts are worth multiple 2nds and so on), that's probably over 70% of our draft capital in the first three rounds traded away in the 20/21/22 drafts. Even if we want to compare the post-Brackett effect, Benning/Weisbrod has made it impossible to.

I think of it broadly as Benning inherited the better situation to start a rebuild (with some hindsight i'll admit, knowing the strong drafts coming down the pipeline 2014-2018), and Gillis inherited a better situation to compete. And neither was given the option to rebuild by ownership. As much as I harp on Benning, I think he could have done much better with more flexible and patient ownership. Also, Tanev/Marky/Horvat/Kassian/Matthias were players worth keeping under 27 . I'm also adding Hansen (28)/Edler (28) to this list as 27 is an arbitrary number, why a 28 year old defenseman that scored 50 points only a year prior flies under the radar for stuff Benning inherited I'll never know. In a salary cap world. I would still take the situation Benning inherited and that ~$23 million in cap flexibility he utilized in 2015 for his UFAs/Trades (Miller/Vrbata/Prust/Dorsett/Sbisa/Sutter) to rebuild. A farm system and a a #1 goalie/#2 Center/#1 RHD in the system. For all the talk about how 'locked in' that 2014 team was, Benning was allowed to utilize 30% of the cap space to put his mark on the team, for better or worse. Allvin and co so far has only been able to affect maybe 6-8% of the cap space he has and that's because he managed to offload Hamonic in that lopsided trade.

Wonder how Hubredeau's extension will play into this now. Probably more likely Miller gets traded. Either him or Boeser/Horvat at this rate unless we can unload some combo of Dickinson/Pearson/Myers/Poolman

Comparing this to the first vid, being the GM of the Canucks really ages you.

Was watching some clips of 94 today because I feel like hurting myself and now I just want Rick Rypien + Donald Brashear at the last minute of Game 6 to stand in between Messier and Linden before the POS hits Linden after he was elbowed and down on the ice. Or replace Victor Oreskovich with this fusion in the last minutes of game 6 when Brad Marchand was speed bagging Daniel.

My probationary period for Benning was 2 offseasons. (2015, 2016). I'll extend the same to this group. Should be enough time to see what their stamp on this team will be.

I just want to see Ottawa make the 2nd round before the Laffs :D

Why not have two PP1s? Just double shift Petey :D In seriousness it depends on the roster we start the season with. As it stands, I think the answer to this will depend on the quality of forwards on PP2 and how well Hughes can work with then. I thinK ideally we should aim to have two equally threatening PPs with our forward depth. And alternate the PP units or split the PP ice times evenly

I think Hughes went from U of Michigan straight to Canucks. So Trent Cull never got his grubby hands on him haha Even Nathan MacKinnon had an off year post draft 2 IIRC, so I'm hoping EP can bounce back.

Just Ryan Stanton! I added some stats with the two D-cores for some quick side by side comparisons. If you think there's a stat that can go on this let me know I'll see if I can rejig it this is 2013-2014 vs 2021-2022 for these D cores to start their respective seasons, ranked by Cap hit How it compares vs the rest of the Dmen in the league who played more than 20 games. This is by percentile So for 2021, Hughes has a Fenwick% higher than 96% of all NHL Dmen, and he has more assists than 98% of them. Keep in mind the ice time here will skew the results (i.e if you play 1st line minutes, you will end up giving up more shots against compared to a 4th liner), I'll see ifdo another analysis with expected numbers and weighted values (by icetime) later

We've butted heads on a lot of things @Alflives, (think you called me a detroit bandwaggoner at one point) so I appreciate that

@Dazzle quotes buttons man! I highly encourage you to, i'll be here You have to be consistent with how you look at GMs. Everyone is saying don't worry about Myers and OEL because Dmen develop late into their 30s. Please address this. Why is Gillis taking flak from you from not drafting Edler's replacement when he was 28, coming off a 50 point season not too long ago, when Benning bought in two thirty year old defensemen who couldn't score more than 30 points last season? Why is Gillis getting flack from you on this and not Benning? When Duncan Keith, Victor Hedman, Kris Letang were 28 years old, no one was harping those GMs for finding their future replacements at that time. Gillis was also fired before he had a chance to replenish the pipeline. And as for replenishing the defense pipeline, I think Gillis ties Benning in this regard. Benning could have EASILY run away with this had he just kept Gustav Forsling or any of his 2nds. For now, both have one or two late round defensemen drafted to their name. Considering Benning had 8 years of high picks to do this, massive failure on him. He didn't have time. Unlike Benning, Gillis was only here for 5 years. And he only tried to rebuild for one offseason before he was canned. He engineered the Lu trade to get Markstrom. And Schneider to get 9th overall. He was fired before he could trade Kesler and the rumor was Aquilini nixed Gillis' deal. So he found a deal. Short memory here Daz. https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-trades/canucks-owners-may-have-nixed-a-kesler-deal/ So no, i reject your statement that Gillis didn't try to get future picks back. I'm also providing sources to back up each of my points. Something you aren't doing. Unfortunately for you (and us), the NHL is a zero sum game. Whatever you do that screws you up ends up benefitting someone. Name another GM that has had such an impact on just their divisional rivals alone. (so this ignores Pittsburgh and Tampa, who went to back to back cups because of Benning's salary cap inefficient trades that allowed them to leverage trading their 3Cs away to us while hauling a premium..) So there are logical things you can point to where he benefited our divisional rivals through his mistakes. To Arizona: Taking OEL off their books. $12 million in cap flexibility this year A 10th overall pick To Montreal (while they were in our division): Tyler Toffoli (who ended up scoring a heck of a lot of goals on us when we were in the Northern division. Benning's salary cap stupidity and not even tendering Tofofli an offer directly affected our playoff chances in 2021. To Calgary (Benning indirectly built their top 4 through his trades and neglicence) Rasmus Andersson (The 2nd round pick we traded Baerschi for) Chris Tanev (not even tendering an offer until day 1 of UFA bc pursuing OEL) Matthew Tkachuk (whiffing on Juolevi) To LA Acquiring a 2nd for Linden Vey who became a bust Acquiring a 2nd and Madden for UFA Toffoli To Anaheim Letting them keep their 10th OA and Shea Theodore in the Bonino trade. It's quite impressive actually. Wait wait wait, so you're giving Gillis grief for not trying to get draft picks to restock the farm, and when he does, it doesn't count? Come on man. In your own words. "none of which Gillis found replacements for, nor did he engineer any kind of trade where he could get some future picks back." That's a draft pick. He was acquired by trading a commodity to rebuild. For a good price too,. How many goalies have you seen since then that returned a top 10 draft pick? Whether another GM makes a mistake like is irrelevant. That's deflecting. If someone made a mistake with Dal Colle, that should benefit Benning even more with him off the board. He's still accountable for his pick. It's empirical fact. When GMs trade down from above the draft, a higher draft pick, especially one in the top 5, is worth several lower picks even if it is one first round. Benning's draft mistakes were magnified by his misses at the top. And guess what, trading McCann + a high 2nd (33rd) for Gudbranson, and making it Pearson is several times worse than that trade you just described from a value perspective. Number of 2nd round picks traded away by Gillis : 2 (1 for Derek Roy) Number of 2nd round picks traded away by Benning : 6 That's great. With one of the rare 2nds he kept. Hogs is great. I wish he kept more 2nds rather than handing them out like candy. And Gillis also found him a starting goaltender in Markstrom while Demko was developing. Both scored on that front. I love Jett Woo, but he is lower on the totem pole than Frankie Corrado was when Gillis is here. He's a long shot to make it. It's empirical evidence. The fact that GMs trade down to get more quantities of lower picks for one high draft pick is enough to rebuke your take on this. The 2nd round picks that Gillis had were averaged at around pick #50-60 because his teams were winning presidents trophies. Benning's were in the #30-40s because his teams ended at the bottom of the league. Demko was a 36th overall pick, that's higher than any of GIllis' 2nd rounders he would have had. The value drop is steep, and a pick in the early 2nds is weighed as much as two in the late 2nd. it makes a difference in value. I'm not perfect, but ignoring the value of draft position is the kamchatka crater-sized hole in yours. Likewise man. Benning is what he is, Gillis is what he is. Believe doesn't have much to do with it. It's stats and empirical evidence. i'm going to quote the enemy here for just the value of a pick in the late 20s: "The general prices If the Flames wanted to move up from 26th overall, they would likely need to spend a late second round pick or a third round pick – and they’d probably only be able to move up to around 20th overall. (They only have a late third round pick – 88th overall – so trading up seems unlikely.) If the Flames wanted to trade down, they could probably net a third round pick for moving within the first round or potentially a second round pick for trading into the early second round." A mistake involving a Benning pick at the draft is easily worth two or three draft picks in Gillis'. The end goal of a GM is playoff wins. And his poor performance at the draft definitely should not be ignored, it played a part in his downfall. But his playoff performances in spite of that put him firmly out of the horrible gm category. And easily ranked above Benning.