[Report] Johansen and CBJ far apart on a new deal

[theminister]

I don't disagree but it would likely be one, maybe two roster pieces and then futures. So basically a one for one (maybe two) swap of actual NHL'ers (hence not a huge disruption).

Maybe Johansen's still at home in a few weeks to fit your timeline too....?

Since we don't have the premier roster player to give up in a deal, which makes us an unlikely candidate anyway, it would probably need to be two current NHLers. That's why I suggest Kassian and Tanev being their starting point as that helps them compensate up front and provides another cost effective body on the backend, for which they still have a roster spot.

With this, they would still ask for a prospect and a pick IMHO. Whether that be Jensen or Horvat, it's still another camp body moving out. That's a high amount of turbulence right now. It would free up a couple of our 50 but unless we have viable replacements, waiting to sign a contract on the other end of the phone and ready to report tomorrow, it creates a huge mess.

I think it's likely that this situation drags into Oct. I'd put odds on it.

[theminister]

I don't know if I'd go quite that deep but regardless, if that's what the CBJ would expect in return for Johansen, that pretty much makes a joke of the lowball contract offers they are expecting him to swallow, doesn't it?

Can anyone imagine a player like Kadri or comparable in that range being moved for a package like that?

The CBJ are wanting to ride the contradiction here imo. They don't want to pay him like a franchise player - but that's pretty much what he provided them with last year - and you can sure as hell bet that when if/when it came to negotiating a trade, they'd want a franchise player return on him.

I totally agree and that's the rub as far as our club goes. That's why I can't see it happening. But how could CLB expect less from us compared other candidate teams considering what we have to offer and what they need? We aren't getting him on an offer sheet under 4x 1sts.

CLB needs to make an impact this year and they already have a good group of youth they are looking to incorporate this year anyway. A near ready prospect doesn't push the envelope for them, especially at forward. If it was a potential impact young D that might be different. We don't have one to spare and in fact is our biggest organizational weakness.

That's why I said originally that there will be many other getter fits for them over the Canucks as a trading partner.

[oldnews]

I think the other think not being looked at in this negotiation is the fact the CBJ just got a franchise player quality of a season out of Johansen - at an ELC cap hit.

That would be the counterpoint to the whole 'he only did it for one season' thing. He did it for a fraction of what a season like that is worth. Yes, that's the benefit of having young players develop in your system, but it doesn't change the fact that he's given them a great, great deal more than his cap hit market value.

Coming back and expecting two more years out of him at half the cap hit he is worth is an utter joke tbh. Offering 3.5 x 2 imo is about as laughable an offer as I've heard in a long time - and then to follow that up with a bunch of 'exortion' and locked door theatrics? I'm surprised frankly, because the CBJ's management group is one I don't lack respect for - imo they're highly competent professionals (I've always quite liked JD), but something in this context has gotten them way off their game. They may want to blame that on KO, and like him or not, it doesn't really change the impression that the CBJ approach here has been quite a #fail.

[aGENT]

I totally agree and that's the rub as far as our club goes. That's why I can't see it happening. But how could CLB expect less from us compared other candidate teams considering what we have to offer and what they need? We are getting him on an offer sheet under 4x 1sts.

CLB needs to make an impact this year and they already have a good group of youth they are looking to incorporate this year anyway. A near ready prospect doesn't push the envelope for them, especially at forward. If it was a potential impact young D that might be different. We don't have one to spare and in fact is our biggest organizational weakness.

That's why I said originally that there will be many other getter fits for them over the Canucks as a trading partner.

Then they best off pay the boy what he deserves and quit their female dogging

[theminister]

I think the other think not being looked at in this negotiation is the fact the CBJ just got a franchise player quality of a season out of Johansen - at an ELC cap hit.

That would be the counterpoint to the whole 'he only did it for one season' thing. He did it for a fraction of what a season like that is worth. Yes, that's the benefit of having young players develop in your system, but it doesn't change the fact that he's given them a great, great deal more than his cap hit market value.

Coming back and expecting two more years out of him at half the cap hit he is worth is an utter joke tbh. Offering 3.5 x 2 imo is about as laughable an offer as I've heard in a long time - and then to follow that up with a bunch of 'exortion' and locked door theatrics? I'm surprised frankly, because the CBJ's management group is one I don't lack respect for - imo they're highly competent professionals (I've always quite liked JD), but something in this context has gotten them way off their game. They may want to blame that on KO, and like him or not, it doesn't really change the impression that the CBJ approach here has been quite a #fail.

I expect that's why they are trying to strike gold twice. Look... money rules all in that market and they want the best of both worlds, profitability and competitiveness.

They have good young players they are willing to give a look to in Wennberg, Erixon, Anderson, Dano and Rychel. With the trajectory of Jenner they aren't over a barrel in this negotiation regardless of the quality of Johansen. Any deal needs to make sense for their bottom line while moving forward as a franchise. If RJ wants to sit out to start the season the team can fill the hole albeit with a lesser product. It doesn't hamper their youth movement though. They are prepared to develop their other prospects hence the, I believe anyway, honest comments from JD and JK.

The reason for the low two year offer is likely because they want to wait until money comes off if the books next year. They feel they have upgraded their roster for this season and think that should be a selling point to RJ. The 2nd year is their trying to have their cake and eat it too. They need to try for that and I understand why.

IMHO this will likely end in a 1 year $4 mil range deal.

[Warhippy]

I stand here and say again.

RJ is appearing to either be incredibly greedy and or pricing himself out of Columbus or he really just wants out of Columbus because he doesn't want to play there.

29 other GMs in the league are paying very close attention to this and people seriously have to understand, his value is very VERY slight right now.

Think of the following.

Staal

Neidereitter

Turris

All young players but went for peanuts because they wanted out.

In another light

Spezza

Kesler

(and so many more)

Got traded for a fraction of what analysts thought their value was because they wanted out.

When we take RJ into account we look at his age and his body of work as well as all the alleged associated issues including work ethic and training issues and factor in his 1 single good year so far. Much like Kane he is resting on his draft position and 1 good year.

Yet people are offering Kassian Horvat (insert random top 9 forward player or top 4 defensive player here) plus picks, not pick but picks.

Why?

While RJ could become the next franchise player and could lead Vancouver to the cup. The odds on us picking him up are slim to none as 24 other teams in the league can offer a better package than we can. Even if he does come here, at those prices he will be a stand alone with no complimentary players.

Think Horvat and a 2016 1st with either Hansen or Higgins or a 2016 2nd thrown in for honest value right now. And that is more than i'd give up for Kane based on position. We could even offer over Bonino with that 2nd and Horvat instead giving them 2 centers and a pick.

But seriously, he is not worth more than that right now. You don't pull this crap after 1 good year and have a GM expect the world for you. We JUST went through this with kesler and Luongo, come on people

[ForsbergTheGreat]

You can come back trying to make a case for comparing him to Kadri all you want - I think that's a very weak comparable and look at players in the range of Seguin, Hall and Nugent-Hopkins as closer peers.

Posting a quote regarding Datsyuk effecting advanced stats also changes little. If you're dead set on comparing Kadri to someone, aim for a player in his range like Hodgson - a more one-dimensional offensive talent that hasn't really developed much of a two way game and is likewise challenged in the faceoff circle. Those guys don't measure up to a player like Johansen, and trying to reduce it to point production alone ironically tells less of a story than necessary, (something your quotes caution about regarding analytics).

The fact is that regardless of the complications of some advanced statistics, certain statistics nevertheless stand alone - Ryan Johansens' faceoff percentage for example - far superior - and one of the top 25 faceoff guys in the NHL at age 22 last year. Has nothing whatsoever to do with his linemates, and in addition, is more impressive when you keep in context his quality of competition, which may be more complicated, but gives you a pretty good idea of the types of players he is facing when taking draws.

Ryan Johansen's percentage of offensive zone starts is not determined, influenced or effected by his linemates / that statistic is not complicated in the least by the fact there are other players on the ice - it gives you a very clear, objective and unambiguous indication of percentages of where he starts his shifts.

The advanced statistics that are more complicated - corsi, qoc - those figures certainly do not tell a person the whole story - in isolation. When you take the whole in context and combine that with the smaller sample that people are able to witness, it gives you about as good a story as you are going to get, and is far preferable to the 'but I watch hockey' story you get from so many people who pretend to trump a keen eye combined with analytics to verify whether the eye and the small sample line up with the aggregate.

If you think that franchises don't take a close look or have an informed understanding of the particulars of a players production in the context of their situational use/play, then I think you're either underestimating the vast majority of NHL teams, or talking about a particularly poorly run franchise. All Holland is really saying is that isolated statistics need to be kept in context.

When you take the aggregates of two players like Kadri and Johansen, it becomes patently clear that Kadri is nowhere near in the same class. Johansen is a franchise talent who excels in a whole lot of aspects of the game. Kadri is a B+ situational talent.

He's not Seguin or hall, or nudge, they signed their deals as 20 year olds, He's two years late on development. They signed there deals with the intent that they will get some undervalue years out of the players. Seguin who's the same age put up a ppg this year and could fetch far more than the 5.7 cap hit he has right now. He's also signed for 5 more years. just think how undervalued his contract will be by the 2018 year, Johansen as a UFA probably could fetch 6.5 but he’s not he’s a RFA. UFA contracts are extremely inflated and teams don’t often win in those deals. There’s a big difference between the two.

You keep ignoring that and that’s a key to this deal. The owners fought for RFA and that to prevent players from being able to make crazy demands and hurting themselves with high risk deals.

Teams in order to win need star players signed at undervalue contracts. Sedins @ 6.1, Toews and kane @ 6.3 these were deals where the teams got more out of the player than they were paying them. Johansen at 6.5 is ok "If" he puts up 35-30 point seasons again and there's no guaranteeing that he will just like it wasn't guaranteed that Kadri would out up another .91 point per game season.

If Johansen gets his 6.5 cap hit deal and then has an “off” year 25-22. What does Foligno ask for next summer if he puts up 45 points. 5 million +. Now you got a team full of inflated values and that prevents you from building a winner.

If you have to take anything away from the quote. It’s the your right advance stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. It’s not something you should bet the house on. Therefor high level comparison, sure bring in the advance stats. Something meaningful like term and dollar amounts that come out of someone’s pocket. Very little influence.

If you don’t agree with me, don’t care, just wait for them to actually sign a deal and see what he gets, it will be a lot closer to the CBJ asking price than what Johansen is asking for. Only way he gets more is another team gives an offer and forces CBJ to match.

[theminister]

I stand here and say again.

RJ is appearing to either be incredibly greedy and or pricing himself out of Columbus or he really just wants out of Columbus because he doesn't want to play there.

29 other GMs in the league are paying very close attention to this and people seriously have to understand, his value is very VERY slight right now.

Think of the following.

Staal

Neidereitter

Turris

All young players but went for peanuts because they wanted out.

In another light

Spezza

Kesler

(and so many more)

Got traded for a fraction of what analysts thought their value was because they wanted out.

When we take RJ into account we look at his age and his body of work as well as all the alleged associated issues including work ethic and training issues and factor in his 1 single good year so far. Much like Kane he is resting on his draft position and 1 good year.

Yet people are offering Kassian Horvat (insert random top 9 forward player or top 4 defensive player here) plus picks, not pick but picks.

Why?

While RJ could become the next franchise player and could lead Vancouver to the cup. The odds on us picking him up are slim to none as 24 other teams in the league can offer a better package than we can. Even if he does come here, at those prices he will be a stand alone with no complimentary players.

Think Horvat and a 2016 1st with either Hansen or Higgins or a 2016 2nd thrown in for honest value right now. And that is more than i'd give up for Kane based on position. We could even offer over Bonino with that 2nd and Horvat instead giving them 2 centers and a pick.

But seriously, he is not worth more than that right now. You don't pull this crap after 1 good year and have a GM expect the world for you. We JUST went through this with kesler and Luongo, come on people

Don't confuse my suggestion of what it might take with 'offering.' In fact, I make clear I wouldn't make the deal. But make no mistake that we have lesser pieces to offer compared to premier NHL assets another team could suggest. Our roster players are B grades and that's their main need to upgrade their team over their own prospects. Ours don't impact them this year.

I agree that his bargaining power isn't very good if JD and JK are willing to ride without him and give the other youngsters a look. I think that's the play they are making and it isn't a bluff. If Overhart is gambling it is then he is doing his client a disservice IMO.

[Warhippy]

Don't confuse my suggestion of what it might take with 'offering.' In fact, I make clear I wouldn't make the deal. But make no mistake that we have lesser pieces to offer compared to premier NHL assets another team could suggest. Our roster players are B grades and that's their main need to upgrade their team over their own prospects. Ours don't impact them this year.

I agree that his bargaining power isn't very good if JD and JK are willing to ride without him and give the other youngsters a look. I think that's the play they are making and it isn't a bluff. If Overhart is gambling it is then he is doing his client a disservice IMO.

Overhardt has been at the heart of some of the biggest tantrums between rfa or entry level players and their teams since like 93. Anyone drafted with him as an agent in any organization should be watched very carefully as there is a 50/50 chance a run on will happen as has happened with numerous players in the Overhardt umbrella.

Again, there are 24 other NHL teams that can package a much better deal than us if they want to overpay. but the issue remains that any trade will be an overpayment judging by what people really think RJ is worth.

The one thing people are forgetting is the depth of quality (seriously quality) rookies and prospects ready to make the jump in the CBJ system which could render RJ redundant, in as much as a possible 2a 1b center can be redundant at his age. CBJ has the time to wait him out if they wanted. And Boone Jenner is ready for a breakout year almost anytime now and could push RJ out if he sits long enough.

Again I stress to people, RJ does not have the value so many are proposing and while we can package together an offer, it isn't in our interests unless it is at value.

[theminister]

Overhardt has been at the heart of some of the biggest tantrums between rfa or entry level players and their teams since like 93. Anyone drafted with him as an agent in any organization should be watched very carefully as there is a 50/50 chance a run on will happen as has happened with numerous players in the Overhardt umbrella.

Again, there are 24 other NHL teams that can package a much better deal than us if they want to overpay. but the issue remains that any trade will be an overpayment judging by what people really think RJ is worth.

The one thing people are forgetting is the depth of quality (seriously quality) rookies and prospects ready to make the jump in the CBJ system which could render RJ redundant, in as much as a possible 2a 1b center can be redundant at his age. CBJ has the time to wait him out if they wanted. And Boone Jenner is ready for a breakout year almost anytime now and could push RJ out if he sits long enough.

Again I stress to people, RJ does not have the value so many are proposing and while we can package together an offer, it isn't in our interests unless it is at value.

Right.

Sounds like we are agreed on all points.

[RonMexico]

It doesn't seem like there is a list of GMs beating down the door to trade for him. I haven't heard of any rumoured deals, including any from Vancouver, at all. Even if other teams could offer more than Vancouver, it doesn't sound like they are. I want this to end with an offer sheet that forces them to pay him. Much like when Nonis had shell out an absurd 1 year 1.9m for Kesler. Turns out, he was worth it.

[Warhippy]

Right.

Sounds like we are agreed on all points.

Par for the course

[elvis15]

Par for the course

Well, it's either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ...

[theminister]

Well, it's either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ...

Probably a little bit of both.

[aGENT]

To be clear if it were even possible to trade for him, (which is slim) I'm not suggesting overpaying.

We could make a fair offer on par with his value IMO. Now whether what we have to offer fits their organizational needs better or worse than other teams competing offers is another discussion (and a fair argument).

However, comments about other teams being able to outbid us always make me laugh. If another team wants to gut all it's fancy high end prospects/players/high picks and overpay for him they're more than welcome. Nobody's suggesting beating another teams over-payment.

I'd wager that most trades have multiple, very similar value offers but it's the organizational needs "fit" that declares the winner. Not which team threw the most or shiniest kitchen sinks in to the deal.

[D-Money]

The longer this goes on, the more I wonder about a Johansen -for- Evander Kane trade.

RJ's value as a player may be a little higher, but Kane has the better contract going forward, which seems to be the concern. Kane has also proved his worth over multiple seasons, whereas RJ is more of a wildcard.

...Different conferences, Jackets with Jenner and Wennberg still, money lines up...the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.

[Monty]

The longer this goes on, the more I wonder about a Johansen -for- Evander Kane trade.

RJ's value as a player may be a little higher, but Kane has the better contract going forward, which seems to be the concern. Kane has also proved his worth over multiple seasons, whereas RJ is more of a wildcard.

...Different conferences, Jackets with Jenner and Wennberg still, money lines up...the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.

Another trade that would make sense for the Jets. They have an abundance of wingers: Wheeler, Ladd, Kane, Byfuglien, Frolik. One of those players can go, as all of them are top 6 players. Also, Bryan Little can slot in on the wing, as he has before.

If I'm Winnipeg, I push for this hard. Obviously would have to be a sign and trade, though.

[Warhippy]

To be clear if it were even possible to trade for him, (which is slim) I'm not suggesting overpaying.

We could make a fair offer on par with his value IMO. Now whether what we have to offer fits their organizational needs better or worse than other teams competing offers is another discussion (and a fair argument).

However, comments about other teams being able to outbid us always make me laugh. If another team wants to gut all it's fancy high end prospects/players/high picks and overpay for him they're more than welcome. Nobody's suggesting beating another teams over-payment.

I'd wager that most trades have multiple, very similar value offers but it's the organizational needs "fit" that declares the winner. Not which team threw the most or shiniest kitchen sinks in to the deal.

This is exactly why i keep bringing up other teams' ability to outbid for him.

If they can than please by all means do so. We don't have Anaheim type wealth where we can risk that.

Yet

[Warhippy]

The longer this goes on, the more I wonder about a Johansen -for- Evander Kane trade.

RJ's value as a player may be a little higher, but Kane has the better contract going forward, which seems to be the concern. Kane has also proved his worth over multiple seasons, whereas RJ is more of a wildcard.

...Different conferences, Jackets with Jenner and Wennberg still, money lines up...the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.

Another trade that would make sense for the Jets. They have an abundance of wingers: Wheeler, Ladd, Kane, Byfuglien, Frolik. One of those players can go, as all of them are top 6 players. Also, Bryan Little can slot in on the wing, as he has before.

If I'm Winnipeg, I push for this hard. Obviously would have to be a sign and trade, though.

With the wealth Columbus has of prospects another team that makes sense for both (although the Russian factor is incredibly high) is Edmonton.

A combination of Yakupov + for either Johansen + or Kane + fits for both teams. Barring CBJ's upper hand by having the center both teams want, neither the Jets or Edmonton could be called unlikely trade partners for either reason.

In fact thinking about it, the possibility for the mythical 3 way trade between the teams is huge. Kane Yakupov Johansen and a smattering of picks or mid range roster players could make sense all around and really make all teams stronger, with Johansen being the big prize in it all.

[aGENT]

This is exactly why i keep bringing up other teams' ability to outbid for him.

If they can than please by all means do so.

Yeah but that doesn't mean they will. This is why I find the "24 teams could out bid us" talk kind of silly. Sure they could but most NHL GM's don't get there by being idiots and overpaying in deals.

We could afford to make a reasonable offer for him. Whether it "wins" and fits CBJ's organizational needs is up for debate. If another team were to "win" they would have either over-payed or fit their organizational needs better.