Canucks’ four biggest mistakes of the past year

[CanadianRugby]

I never said keeping Miller over Lack or trading Kassian for Prust would keep us younger. I have no idea where you got that from (I got it from our GM, who's plan you're defending) as that's an outright lie. Again I never said we were going to stockpile draft picks and prospects. I also never said we were trying to get toughness, (Again, from our GM and general consensus of Benning plan defenders) I said we were trying to get grit. Those two words have completely different meanings. Toughness means you can take on any player and hit hard, grit means you continue going after the puck no matter what the other player throws at you.

You know there is a thing called retooling, which is what we're doing right now. There's a middle between "let's blow up the team" and "let's stack our line up with stars to win us a cup" (the latter of which is nearly impossible with the salary cap today). Today's teams need to build from within and then use UFA's to fill the gaps after. Yes, aiming for the middle. That's how the Kings and Blackhawks won their cups right? It had nothing to do with picking in the top 5 to get Kane, Toews and Doughty.

Hamhuis will be moved out next season as will our rental Prust and Burrows will go the season after that. Higgins will be traded and Vrbata will most likely be shipped off also. Next season Miller will go as well. Everything said there is 100% speculation. If true, why not do it sooner than later ass every player listed will have his value drop over time as they're all old.

Ok so first you say keeping our older players won't win us the cup and then you say all our prospects are overrated, but yet you want to keep prospects and not trade them off. You've boxed yourself into a corner. How did I box myself into a corner. My main point is that we need better prospects than we have.

People that are anti tanking act like the a plan that involves tanking only has one step. Tank to get top picks. Nobody is saying that. Tanking is just the first step to a championship team. Kings did it. Blackhawks did it. Penguins did it. None of those teams would have won without doing it.

[CanadianRugby]

That’s the problems with tank crowd, they think finding a stud D is as simple as getting a top 5 pick. Can you name me 10 stud D selected in the top 5, over the last 30 years?

Here I’ll list them for you:

1st

Aaron Ekblad

Erik Johnson

Chris Phillips

Bryan Berard

Ed Jovanovski

Roman Hamrlik

2nd

Ryan Murray

Victor Hedman[/b

Drew Doughty

Andrei Zyuzin

Wade Redden

Oleg Tverdovsky

Chris Pronger

3rd

Erik Gudbranson

Zach Bogosian

Jack Johnson

Cam Barker

Jay Bouwmeester

Brad Stuart

Aki-Petteri Berg

Mike Rathje

Scott Niedermayer

Curtis Leschyshyn

Glen Wesley

4th

Seth Jones

Griffin Reinhart

Adam Larsson

Alex Pietrangelo

Thomas Hickey

Joni Pitkanen

Rostislav Klesla

Bryan Allen

Scott Lachance

Wayne McBean

Zarley Zalapski

5th

Noah Hanifin

Morgan Rielly

Luke Schenn

Karl Alzner

Ryan Whitney

Vitali Vishnevsky

Eric Brewer

Richard Jackman

Darius Kasparaitis

Aaron Ward

Chris Joseph

Shawn Anderson

I just listed all 47 D selected in the top 5 over that last 30 years. 47 players selected from a possible 150 total picks. From my count, I got 7 stud/ franchise D. That is less than a 5% chance of getting a stud D. Less than 5% isn’t something you probably want to use a as “pro” for your argument of tanking.

I actually said you need top 5 picks to replace the Sedins and have the best shot at a stud D so cool I got some lists too.

The Sedins were taken in the top 5 and have completely carried this team since then, here's a list of Canucks draft picks taken out of the top 5 that are better than the Sedins.

Round 1

none

Round 2

none

Round 3.... well you get the point. The other best Canuck in that time was Luongo, also taken in the top 5.

Here's a list of players taken in the top 5 that lead their teams to the Stanley Cup in our current cap era:

Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Doughty and I'm probably missing others.

Of course, sometimes you hit home runs with later picks with later picks like Chicago did with Duncan Keith, I'm not saying we trade those picks away. All I'm saying is your best shot at a franchise player is in the top 5. It's stupid to argue against that otherwise those picks wouldn't have much more value than later ones.

[amitriptyline]

I'm getting a bit fed up of all this negativity and criticism directed at Benning lately. Its really unwarranted. I'll admit I'm no fan of the Lack trade, but Benning has done a lot of good things for the team. He's got the right idea about what this team needs and he is making moves that are addressing those needs. One thing he is focusing on is bringing in character players who have leadership qualities and who raise their level of play in the post season. That is precisely what the team is lacking in. Its been a glaring weakness for a long time and its finally being addressed.

Guys like Sutter, Prust, Dorsett, and prospects like Virtanen, Mcann, Boeser, Brisebois, Zhukenov are all guys who fit the profile of character players. He is also making the team faster, and getting guys with skill, grit and hockey sense, and making it a team that is harder to play against. We had a good draft, and a good stock of prospects that should start filtering in soon. I like much of what Benning has done so far, and I feel positive about where the team is going under his management.

[CanadianRugby]

I'm getting a bit fed up of all this negativity and criticism directed at Benning lately. Its really unwarranted. I'll admit I'm no fan of the Lack trade, but Benning has done a lot of good things for the team. He's got the right idea about what this team needs and he is making moves that are addressing those needs. One thing he is focusing on is bringing in character players who have leadership qualities and who raise their level of play in the post season. That is precisely what the team is lacking in. Its been a glaring weakness for a long time and its finally being addressed.

Guys like Sutter, Prust, Dorsett, and prospects like Virtanen, Mcann, Boeser, Brisebois, Zhukenov are all guys who fit the profile of character players. He is also making the team faster, and getting guys with skill, grit and hockey sense, and making it a team that is harder to play against. We had a good draft, and a good stock of prospects that should start filtering in soon. I like much of what Benning has done so far, and I feel positive about where the team is going under his management.

If you look at most of the posts they're fairly positive. Most of the negativity is coming from analysts and writers.

I'm not sure why people are saying that they players brought in by Benning raise their level of play in the playoffs. Vrbata disappears in the playoffs. Prust last year only cried about the refs, so I guess he'll fit right in. Dorsett was invisible last years playoffs. Bonino and Sbisa did nothing.

Sutter has never scored more than 40 points and he's only 5lbs bigger than the Sedins or Raymond. Our defense is a shell of it's former self. Our goalie is old and on the downslide of his career. I'm not sure how we're harder to play against now. There's nobody in our system to take over for the Sedins and no #1 D prospect. We at least used to be able to out skill teams.

[Honky Cat]

If you look at most of the posts they're fairly positive. Most of the negativity is coming from analysts and writers.

I'm not sure why people are saying that they players brought in by Benning raise their level of play in the playoffs. Vrbata disappears in the playoffs. Prust last year only cried about the refs, so I guess he'll fit right in. Dorsett was invisible last years playoffs. Bonino and Sbisa did nothing.

Sutter has never scored more than 40 points and he's only 5lbs bigger than the Sedins or Raymond. Our defense is a shell of it's former self. Our goalie is old and on the downslide of his career. I'm not sure how we're harder to play against now. There's nobody in our system to take over for the Sedins and no #1 D prospect. We at least used to be able to out skill teams.

I actually said you need top 5 picks to replace the Sedins and have the best shot at a stud D so cool I got some lists too.

The Sedins were taken in the top 5 and have completely carried this team since then, here's a list of Canucks draft picks taken out of the top 5 that are better than the Sedins.

Round 1

none

Round 2

none

Round 3.... well you get the point. The other best Canuck in that time was Luongo, also taken in the top 5.

Here's a list of players taken in the top 5 that lead their teams to the Stanley Cup in our current cap era:

Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Doughty and I'm probably missing others.

Of course, sometimes you hit home runs with later picks with later picks like Chicago did with Duncan Keith, I'm not saying we trade those picks away. All I'm saying is your best shot at a franchise player is in the top 5. It's stupid to argue against that otherwise those picks wouldn't have much more value than later ones.

The last time the Canucks even picked in the top five was 1999...the year the Sedins were drafted..They didn't carry the team at all in their first few years here (in fact,there was so much discontent from fans and media,they almost moved back to Sweden).

Look no farther than the Oilers with all their #1 overalls..RNH,Yak,Hall...none of them are franchise players..They finally landed Mcdavid after a decade of misery.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

I actually said you need top 5 picks to replace the Sedins and have the best shot at a stud D so cool I got some lists too.

The Sedins were taken in the top 5 and have completely carried this team since then, here's a list of Canucks draft picks taken out of the top 5 that are better than the Sedins.

Round 1

none

Round 2

none

Round 3.... well you get the point. The other best Canuck in that time was Luongo, also taken in the top 5.

Here's a list of players taken in the top 5 that lead their teams to the Stanley Cup in our current cap era:

Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Doughty and I'm probably missing others.

Of course, sometimes you hit home runs with later picks with later picks like Chicago did with Duncan Keith, I'm not saying we trade those picks away. All I'm saying is your best shot at a franchise player is in the top 5. It's stupid to argue against that otherwise those picks wouldn't have much more value than later ones.

Cool you cherry picked some players. But what about all the other top 5 picks that don't have a cup. I could easily cherry pick players too that were important in there cup run

Kopitar, brown, quick, Keith, seabrook, Williams, chara, Thomas, Lucic, Bergeron, datsyuk, zetterberg

You want actual facts. Less that 15% of top 5 picks in the last 25 years have turned into Stanley cups. Maybe there's a lot more to winning s cup then picking in the top 5 as the tankers suggest.

[Alflives]

Cool you cherry picked some players. But what about all the other top 5 picks that down have cup. I could easily cherry pick players too thst were important in there cup run

Kopitar, brown, quick, Keith, seabrook, Williams, chara, Thomas, Lucic, Bergeron, datsyuk, zetterberg

You want actual facts. Less that 15% of top 5 picks in the last 25 years have turned into Stanley cups. Maybe there's a lot more to winning s cup then picking in the top 5 as the tankers suggest.

And we could have drafted every one of these guys:(

[Alflives]

Cool you cherry picked some players. But what about all the other top 5 picks that down have cup. I could easily cherry pick players too thst were important in there cup run

Kopitar, brown, quick, Keith, seabrook, Williams, chara, Thomas, Lucic, Bergeron, datsyuk, zetterberg

You want actual facts. Less that 15% of top 5 picks in the last 25 years have turned into Stanley cups. Maybe there's a lot more to winning s cup then picking in the top 5 as the tankers suggest.

Your point is well taken. Do you think it's more likely for goalies and defence men to be taken later, and turn out elite, than forwards though?

[IBatch]

That’s the problems with tank crowd, they think finding a stud D is as simple as getting a top 5 pick. Can you name me 10 stud D selected in the top 5, over the last 30 years?

Here I’ll list them for you:

1st

Aaron Ekblad

Erik Johnson

Chris Phillips

Bryan Berard

Ed Jovanovski

Roman Hamrlik

2nd

Ryan Murray

Victor Hedman[/b

Drew Doughty

Andrei Zyuzin

Wade Redden

Oleg Tverdovsky

Chris Pronger

3rd

Erik Gudbranson

Zach Bogosian

Jack Johnson

Cam Barker

Jay Bouwmeester

Brad Stuart

Aki-Petteri Berg

Mike Rathje

Scott Niedermayer

Curtis Leschyshyn

Glen Wesley

4th

Seth Jones

Griffin Reinhart

Adam Larsson

Alex Pietrangelo

Thomas Hickey

Joni Pitkanen

Rostislav Klesla

Bryan Allen

Scott Lachance

Wayne McBean

Zarley Zalapski

5th

Noah Hanifin

Morgan Rielly

Luke Schenn

Karl Alzner

Ryan Whitney

Vitali Vishnevsky

Eric Brewer

Richard Jackman

Darius Kasparaitis

Aaron Ward

Chris Joseph

Shawn Anderson

I just listed all 47 D selected in the top 5 over that last 30 years. 47 players selected from a possible 150 total picks. From my count, I got 7 stud/ franchise D. That is less than a 5% chance of getting a stud D. Less than 5% isn’t something you probably want to use a as “pro” for your argument of tanking.

I love it when somebody takes the effort to provide clarity with the facts on this forum. This is reality. It clearly shows that there are way, way, way more misses than hits when drafting, even in the top five. Great post - thanks for putting it on - should copy and paste in pretty much every thread has been added this summer - too many folks think that high draft picks = a guaranteed rebuild.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

Your point is well taken. Do you think it's more likely for goalies and defence men to be taken later, and turn out elite, than forwards though?

It does seem more top forwards come out of the top 5 than d and goalies but top 5 doesn't mean you get a great player.

If you select in the top 5 you should get a good player, but good player doesn't equal great player.

Take 2006 vs 2007 drafts.

In 2007 the 3rd overall gets you Kyle Turris, Turris is a good player, but is he the type of player you want your team to tank for.

In 2006 the 3rd overall gets you Toews, Toews is a great player, they type of player that doesn't come around to often. He is the type of player that you want.

in 2006 the 1st overall is Erik Johnson, again good player, not someone you build a team around.

In 2007 the 1st overall was Patrick Kane, A very talented forward that can step up his play in big games.

So it just shows how inconsistent the draft is from year to year and from pick to pick. Some years you can hit it out of the park. Some years you don't. Some years the 3rd overall becomes better than the first. The inconsistency should be the determining factor to be against tanking. That's why it took Chicago 10 years to finally get some luck on there picks and make it out of the bottom. Replace toews with turris and Kane with Johnson and Hawks don't have three cups. Oilers are 8 years in and still haven't made the playoffs. Jets /thrashers have had the most top 5 picks in the last 15 years and only have 8 playoff games. Are we comfortable spending the next 6-10 years at the bottom for a less hopes to lucky land that great player. On top of that. Plenty great players get selected outside of the top 5.

[CanadianRugby]

Cool you cherry picked some players. But what about all the other top 5 picks that don't have a cup. I could easily cherry pick players too that were important in there cup run

Kopitar, brown, quick, Keith, seabrook, Williams, chara, Thomas, Lucic, Bergeron, datsyuk, zetterberg

You want actual facts. Less that 15% of top 5 picks in the last 25 years have turned into Stanley cups. Maybe there's a lot more to winning s cup then picking in the top 5 as the tankers suggest.

Well since there's one Stanley Cup per year and 5 top 5 picks. It's simple math that most top 5 picks aren't going to lead their team to the cup. However, in the cap era, almost all the teams that have won the cup have been built including top 5 picked players. Chicago is a dynasty thanks to their top 5 picks. There's a reason Kane and Toews were taken in the top 5 and why they make the money they do. The only reason Pittsburgh won is because they tanked and got Crosby, Malkin and Fleury.

Obviously there's more to winning than tanking. The Blackhawks dominate because of great management but they wouldn't be winning anything if they never sucked enough in the first place to get Kane and Toews.

[aGENT]

There's nobody in our system to take over for the Sedins and no #1 D prospect. We at least used to be able to out skill teams.

I keep seeing people post this (or similar sentiment) and it's a bit of a fallacious line of thinking IMO.

We don't need direct 'replacements' for the Sedins because that's not they type of team Benning's building. I mean if we happen to fluke out and draft (or sign) a 'superstar' 1C, Benning's not going to turn it down but it's pretty clear that he's building a very even, deep 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B style team similar to the one he helped put together in Boston that beat us for the cup in 2011.

You don't need (and in fact it can bet detrimental given their salary demands and hence sacrificing depth) a superstar 1C for that style of team.

A stud D however.... We desperately need some blue chip top pairing D. Whether they're aquired through the draft, trade, free agency or created in a lab deep in the bowels of Rogers Arena... I don't really care

[TOMapleLaughs]

I love it when somebody takes the effort to provide clarity with the facts on this forum. This is reality. It clearly shows that there are way, way, way more misses than hits when drafting, even in the top five. Great post - thanks for putting it on - should copy and paste in pretty much every thread has been added this summer - too many folks think that high draft picks = a guaranteed rebuild.

The reality is that unless we finally address this need, we're on the outside looking in when it comes to winning a cup. If there's a better way than through the draft here, I'd like to hear it.

I think the problem is that in Vancouver we're accustomed to failed drafts. It's developed a sense of draft apathy. Combine that with a random plan, wait and see approach to team building, and you have a complete excuse for further futility.

[puckdontlie]

I keep seeing people post this (or similar sentiment) and it's a bit of a fallacious line of thinking IMO.

We don't need direct 'replacements' for the Sedins because that's not they type of team Benning's building. I mean if we happen to fluke out and draft (or sign) a 'superstar' 1C, Benning's not going to turn it down but it's pretty clear that he's building a very even, deep 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B style team similar to the one he helped put together in Boston that beat us for the cup in 2011.

You don't need (and in fact it can bet detrimental given their salary demands and hence sacrificing depth) a superstar 1C for that style of team.

A stud D however.... We desperately need some blue chip top pairing D. Whether they're aquired through the draft, trade, free agency or created in a lab deep in the bowels of Rogers Arena... I don't really care

Still need to replace the Sedins' scoring but I like that our youthful forwards are upgrades on speed and size. Hopefully Horvat can be as effective as Krejci, Toews or Kopitar who are the cup winning top line centres in the last 5 yrs. Virtanen, McCann, Cassel and Boeser look like they'll be effective top six forwards. Scoring from Baertschi and Vey would be a bonus but I don't know if they'll be any more effective than a guy like Mason Raymond. I'm fine with Sutter being primarily a shutdown guy and consider any spikes in production a bonus.

Goaltending looks good.. Markstrom and Demko have the tools to become regular season and playoff beasts.

Totally agree about the lack of a stud D. That position is much more difficult to fill. Currently, I don't see many of our D prospects fitting into the top 4, at least not a cup contending top 4. It's very likely this will come via trade or free agency.

Future looks bright!

[aGENT]

Still need to replace the Sedins' scoring.

You do it by committee. ~40 points spread among the bottom 3 lines isn't a stretch when you've got far better bottom 9 players.

[GreyHatnDart]

You do it by committee. ~40 points spread among the bottom 3 lines isn't a stretch when you've got far better bottom 9 players.

The other reason I like this method is because if you go top heavy, you run the serious risk of knocking yourself out of contention if you lose one of your top players. While the Sedin's are still here earning the money they do, we won't have the cash to spread around to make this 2x2, 2x3 lineup properly. That's okay by me though, as it WILL give the guys that will grow into these spots the ability to hone their game at the NHL level without the pressure of being top line players would be. It's a good system.

[Alflives]

To win a Cup, and IMO that's the obvious goal, we absolutely need an elite # 1 D-man. It's rare a team wins a Cup without that piece.

[aGENT]

The other reason I like this method is because if you go top heavy, you run the serious risk of knocking yourself out of contention if you lose one of your top players. While the Sedin's are still here earning the money they do, we won't have the cash to spread around to make this 2x2, 2x3 lineup properly. That's okay by me though, as it WILL give the guys that will grow into these spots the ability to hone their game at the NHL level without the pressure of being top line players would be. It's a good system.

Sure we will. Most of our guys will be on ELC's and maybe bridge deals by the time the twins retire

And if the twins happen to sign another 1-2 years of deals after their current one expires it will most likely be at a diminished rate relative to their likely diminished roles.

[Fanuck]

It's rare a team wins a Cup without that piece.

Rare, probably. Impossible, no.

Edler , when on his game, is as good as anyone the Hurricanes had on D when they won, not to mention Hammer is Olympic calibre, if not just slightly removed from that level. Any significant help on D for the immediate future won't be coming out of our prospect pool unfortunately though. Of all the moves/non moves management has done, this concerns me the most. As much as I'd like to believe Subban will be a player like most of cdc thinks, I doubt he's going to make an impact unfortunately.

[Alflives]

Rare, probably. Impossible, no.

Edler , when on his game, is as good as anyone the Hurricanes had on D when they won, not to mention Hammer is Olympic calibre, if not just slightly removed from that level. Any significant help on D for the immediate future won't be coming out of our prospect pool unfortunately though. Of all the moves/non moves management has done, this concerns me the most. As much as I'd like to believe Subban will be a player like most of cdc thinks, I doubt he's going to make an impact unfortunately.

Yup, I agree. It's possible, but rare. The year Anaheim won their Cup, they had (albeit aging) neidermire, and Pronger. Maybe we could bring in one older guy, of that level, just for one or two seasons?