Bo Horvat | #53 | C

[-AJ-]

4 minutes ago, kloubek said:

...and he still won't.

 

While Benning has given Green more options to play with Bo, he hasn't yet given him wingers at his own level.  All the wingers we have not named Boeser are mid level 2nd line players at best with historical stats that max out at less than 50 points a season I believe. If Bo is going to be successful as possible, we need maybe 70pt guys to accompany him at some point. In the meantime, Miller is absolutely an option that should and will be entertained but I certainly wouldn't call any of our 2nd line winger options ideal.

Outside of Boeser, Miller is the one who's shown the highest level. Baertschi and Pearson have both peaked at 0.55 points-per-game (45 points in 82 games), whereas Ferland last year had 0.56 (46 points). Two years ago, Miller had 58 points in 82 games, which is very close to Horvat's level. Miller's history shows that he's just a bit of a step above our other three 2nd line wingers. 

 

That said, I see Miller probably on our 1st line, so Bo will probably be with more average 2nd liners with Baer and Ferland, so he will probably still be playing with wingers quite a bit below his level. Our best hope is probably for Podkolzin to step in at a high level when he's ready for Bo in two years.

[dpn1]

I don\t think it will financially work/  To have that many high end players in your top 6 is going to get expensive.  I think that you have to depend more on the young guys on ELC\s to come up and surprise like Lind, Madden and others.  It seems to be the way of the new NHL.  More strategy needed.  Maybe someone should get Jim a copy of "The Art of War." 

Edited July 21, 2019 by dpn1

[WeneedLumme]

6 hours ago, kloubek said:

...and he still won't.

 

While Benning has given Green more options to play with Bo, he hasn't yet given him wingers at his own level.  All the wingers we have not named Boeser are mid level 2nd line players at best with historical stats that max out at less than 50 points a season I believe. If Bo is going to be successful as possible, we need maybe 70pt guys to accompany him at some point. In the meantime, Miller is absolutely an option that should and will be entertained but I certainly wouldn't call any of our 2nd line winger options ideal.

50 points is closer to first line production than it is to "mid level 2nd line" production. And 70 points was 48th in forward scoring last season, mid level first line production.

 

Obviously giving Bo solid first line wingers would likely increase his production, but expecting to have two clearly first line wingers on our second line is completely unrealistic. That is a situation that a serious Cup contender might have temporarily after the TDL with some rental players.

[Kanukfanatic]

8 hours ago, kloubek said:

...and he still won't.

 

While Benning has given Green more options to play with Bo, he hasn't yet given him wingers at his own level.  All the wingers we have not named Boeser are mid level 2nd line players at best with historical stats that max out at less than 50 points a season I believe. If Bo is going to be successful as possible, we need maybe 70pt guys to accompany him at some point. In the meantime, Miller is absolutely an option that should and will be entertained but I certainly wouldn't call any of our 2nd line winger options ideal.

JT Miller is a legit 1st line player. If Bo plays with him it would be a huge step up.

[kloubek]

9 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

50 points is closer to first line production than it is to "mid level 2nd line" production. And 70 points was 48th in forward scoring last season, mid level first line production.

 

Obviously giving Bo solid first line wingers would likely increase his production, but expecting to have two clearly first line wingers on our second line is completely unrealistic. That is a situation that a serious Cup contender might have temporarily after the TDL with some rental players.

Not saying we need that right now.  We simply can't in this cap world.  A rental once LE is gone might work - though the easier route would be if we hit on Podkolzin or Hogs. My point was against thw idea that Bo now has the winger he needs.  Better - sure... but not ideal.

 

Yes, 50 points is closer to 1st line stats which is great if Miller can get there again - though he averages less.

[kloubek]

7 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

JT Miller is a legit 1st line player. If Bo plays with him it would be a huge step up.

40-50 points is a "legit" 1st line player? Well, I guess if you get your expectations low you don't get disappointed.

[higgyfan]

1 hour ago, kloubek said:

40-50 points is a "legit" 1st line player? Well, I guess if you get your expectations low you don't get disappointed.

56-58pts in seasons '17+'18.  In season '19 he was put on the 3rd line as TB are so loaded with top 6 performers (47pts in 75games).  I don't think it's a stretch to think that he will be in the 60-65pt range alongside Pete.

[Kanukfanatic]

1 hour ago, kloubek said:

40-50 points is a "legit" 1st line player? Well, I guess if you get your expectations low you don't get disappointed.

Don't worry about the facts kloubek.

 

Just make stuff up....yah....thats right.  

 

Helps with the credibility.

[-AJ-]

6 hours ago, kloubek said:

40-50 points is a "legit" 1st line player? Well, I guess if you get your expectations low you don't get disappointed.

I think based on his numbers last year, he was more of a 2nd line player, but as @higgyfan states below, he was a low-end 1st line player in the prior two years with more offensive usage on the Rangers. I expect he can probably hit 50-60 points. Anything above that would be a pleasant surprise.

 

5 hours ago, higgyfan said:

56-58pts in seasons '17+'18.  In season '19 he was put on the 3rd line as TB are so loaded with top 6 performers (47pts in 75games).  I don't think it's a stretch to think that he will be in the 60-65pt range alongside Pete.

 

[kloubek]

8 hours ago, -AJ- said:

I think based on his numbers last year, he was more of a 2nd line player, but as @higgyfan states below, he was a low-end 1st line player in the prior two years with more offensive usage on the Rangers. I expect he can probably hit 50-60 points. Anything above that would be a pleasant surprise.

Yeah I realize this (although if one doesn't project his stats to 82 games he really only had one season over 50). He is poised to have a good year no matter which line we put him on.  And he plays the game the "right" way too. Looking forward to it for sure - though I am still concerned our top 6 wingers aren't really good enough to be a scoring playoff team yet.

 

I think our revised d will help in this regard too.  A full season of Hughes and more puck movement from the backend should do wonders.

[higgyfan]

32 minutes ago, kloubek said:

Yeah I realize this (although if one doesn't project his stats to 82 games he really only had one season over 50). He is poised to have a good year no matter which line we put him on.  And he plays the game the "right" way too. Looking forward to it for sure - though I am still concerned our top 6 wingers aren't really good enough to be a scoring playoff team yet.

 

I think our revised d will help in this regard too.  A full season of Hughes and more puck movement from the backend should do wonders.

I don't know how you're coming up with those #s, K.  2017 he had 56pts in 86games.  2018 58pts in 82 games (you have to combine his pts from NYR + TBL).  In 2019 47pts in 75 games; prorated he probably hits the 50pt mark (and this being deployed on a 3rd line).    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123367

If he playes alongside Pete (with Hughes on the backend, I think he can get over the +60 mark quite easily.

 

Due to a select few players scoring into the +90's these days, people think that a team has to have a top line of all +70pts players and a 2nd of +55pts players.  This is not the case for most NHL teams.  Even the top teams that have the huge totals on their 1st line, tend to drop of very quick to the 40-50pts on there 2nd lines.  The salary cap insures that no team can collect a staggering top 6. 

 

I'd venture to say that there are only 6 or 7 teams that have a top 6 where the individual players all have more than 50pts.  The other teams that have done well usually have a great defensive system and a pt munching pmd.

 

Vancouver needs to improve their defensive end (Tanev and Edler later on) need to be replaced at some point).  With that happening, they will likely add a couple of more scoring rookies, while the young core continues to improve.

 

This team is on a trajectory to become a very good team over the next few years and they will be so much fun to watch, starting this coming season.

 

[aGENT]

16 hours ago, kloubek said:

40-50 points is a "legit" 1st line player? Well, I guess if you get your expectations low you don't get disappointed.

The 93rd top scoring forward in the league last year (AKA 31 teams X 3 '1st line forwards') had 52 points FYI.

 

50 points +/- is pretty much low end 1st line/ high end 2nd line production.

 

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

The 93rd top scoring forward in the league last year (AKA 31 teams X 3 '1st line forwards') had 52 points FYI.

...Yeah thats not how it works

 

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

...Yeah thats not how it works

 

So true.  Guys like Bergeron, Toews, and Bo can definitely play first line minutes, while taking the toughest matchups, and PK and PP too.  Points are not the end all be all to evaluate a player.  Your picture is Forsberg.  IMO one of the best of all time.  Yes, he put up points, but there was a lot more to what made him “Peter the Great” than points.  

[kloubek]

Yeah, I was misreading the stats somehow on Miller.  Guess he did have two very good seasons after all so the one full season with the Rangers at 56 points wasn't exactly a blip.

[higgyfan]

33 minutes ago, kloubek said:

Yeah, I was misreading the stats somehow on Miller.  Guess he did have two very good seasons after all so the one full season with the Rangers at 56 points wasn't exactly a blip.

Yeah I suspected that, K.  It's easy to do.  You must be feeling a lot better about Miller though.

[kloubek]

8 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

Yeah I suspected that, K.  It's easy to do.  You must be feeling a lot better about Miller though.

I really am, actually.  I don't put a lot of weight into a guy having a single good season.  Buy 2 good seasons combined with limited usage in Tampa and it really does start to paint a better picture for us.  

 

Still want more winger scoring, but thats what Podkolzin and/or Hoglander are for in a couple of years. 

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, kloubek said:

I really am, actually.  I don't put a lot of weight into a guy having a single good season.  Buy 2 good seasons combined with limited usage in Tampa and it really does start to paint a better picture for us.  

 

Still want more winger scoring, but thats what Podkolzin and/or Hoglander are for in a couple of years. 

JB came out like a thief with Pods and Hogs, didn’t he?  I think both those guys are contributing to us winning in two seasons.  

Edited July 22, 2019 by Alflives

[kloubek]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

JB came out like a thief with Pods and Hogs, didn’t he?  I think both those guys are contributing to us winning in two seasons.  

We will see.  Both guys are well built and have obvious skill. If they Both hit, we will have a top six (nine?) to be reckoned with.

 

Fun times to be a Canuck fan.

[Kanukfanatic]

9 hours ago, higgyfan said:

Due to a select few players scoring into the +90's these days, people think that a team has to have a top line of all +70pts players and a 2nd of +55pts players.  This is not the case for most NHL teams.  Even the top teams that have the huge totals on their 1st line, tend to drop of very quick to the 40-50pts on there 2nd lines.  The salary cap insures that no team can collect a staggering top 6. 

Excellent post higgyfan. The top scoring teams in the league last regular season had the following as their top scoring players (not including D):

 

Tampa                              

Kuch 128

Stamkos 98

Point 92

 

Gourde 48

Johnson 47

JT Miller 47

 

San Jose

Hertl 74

Couture 70

Meier 66

 

Pavelski 64

Kane 56

Labanc 56

 

Calgary 

Gaudreau 99

Monahan 82

Lindholm 78

 

Tkachuk 77

Backlund 47

Ryan 38

 

Toronto

Marner 94

Tavares 88

Matthews 73

 

Kapanen 44

Kadri 44

Johnsson 43

 

Vancouver 

Pettersson 66

Horvat 61

Boeser 56

 

Roussel 31

Eriksson 29

Goldobin 27

 

If you look at San Jose they did not have crazy high points for their top few guys but good totals for their top 6 forwards for points. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that the Canucks top 6 forwards get point totals similar to theirs next year (at least their top 5 guys or so).

 

However, San Jose has D with crazy high points to which we will not have.

 

You look at Tampa and Toronto they have very high point totals for their top 3 scoring forwards and then mid level scoring from the rest. Very top heavy compared to spread out totals in San Jose.

 

Edit: I decided to throw in the Stanley Cup champs to:

 

St. Louis

O'Reilly 77

Tarasenko 68

Schenn 54

 

Perron 46

Bozak 38

Schwartz 36

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Kanukfanatic