canuck_in_england Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Quick potentially ignorant question coming. I've never understood how players that are drafted so low (+200 for example) end up producing big numbers. Take players for example...who consitantly put up point per game numbers. What is this usually down to? Poor scouting, the guy just coming on huge without having shown the potential? Or is just that it's a rare event and you're just bound to see this now and again? Thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilight Sparkle Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 i don't think it's ignorant at all. that's a great question. is it great scouting, or is it someone taking a low risk with a high reward. when they see a guy play, they can kinda see that they have "it" that they could be a real star. is it great scouting? is it the team they're drafted to, that if put with one guy, they come out of nowhere? and it leaves you wondering "wtf where did this guy come from? seriously? now i'm tired of hearing this story" then of course the team with this guy who comes out of nowhere, they win the championship, then you believe, okay take that guy off that team, and they arent going to have this same success like, is hansen going to pay off for the sharks with a full season, for an example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Players hit the draft when the are 18. There is a a lot of physical and mental maturity that comes after that age. Also take into consideration adjustments to different league. These players are being scouted in junior which is not nearly as high skilled as the NHL. And then of course you need to see how they do in their given league. Major junior is probably the most heavily scouted and easy to compare with others. Other leagues don't have nearly as many scouts and it can be harder to compare the quality of the player. Hansen was from the Dannish league. I remember the comment when we draft him was that he was our last pick so go for a home run. The Canucks didn't really know what they had in him until he went to the WHL. Edler played in a 3rd division Swedish league. A player like Jamie Benn was playing in Junior A and wasn't a dominant player, he broke out a couple of years later in the WHL. On Henrik Zetterberg: "Zetterberg caught the attention of the Red Wings' Assistant General Manager Jim Nill and Director of European Scouting Håkan Andersson during a tournament in Finland. While Andersson was trying to point out Mattias Weinhandl, Nill could not help noticing "this little Zetterberg guy who always seemed to have the puck." Zetterberg was 140lbs at the time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elvis15 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Pretty much the above, where the early draft age has both risk and potential for players after they've been picked. The talk of moving the draft age to 19 would take some risk away, but also some of that surprise for players drafted so late to do so well. Just in case you hadn't seen it, England, there's a thread for general hockey questions that might be useful to you. You could find answers to other questions there, and you don't ever have to worry about looking like a newbie with a basic question (this one was fine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dm_ranger Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 First post as a new member, Another thing with late drafted players is the amount of playing time and practices they have received. Chris Tanev didn't start playing hockey until quite late (teenager I think) so the amount of hockey he had played by draft year was low. You need 10 000 hours to become a master at something, Tanev didn't have that by the time of the draft, so he doesn't stand out. By the time he finishes college his is closer to that and 'suddenly' is this great players. If your parents don't have the money you don't get the extra lessons, don't get noticed and brought into the elite leagues with better coaches and more games, practices and such. This also points towards why hockey runs in the family. If your dad was in the NHL you are going to be exposed to elite coaching earlier and your name is going to open doors for more opportunities to put in the hours sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Nirvanagut Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Definitely daft picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 8 hours ago, canuck_in_england said: Quick potentially ignorant question coming. I've never understood how players that are drafted so low (+200 for example) end up producing big numbers. Take players for example...who consitantly put up point per game numbers. What is this usually down to? Poor scouting, the guy just coming on huge without having shown the potential? Or is just that it's a rare event and you're just bound to see this now and again? Thanks in advance... drafting is important, but so is development. Some players can find a skill level they never showed in junior e.g., under a great AHL coach. Jannik Hansen is a great example, i think we picked him 287th and he simply developed into a really solid player after a few years bouncing back and forth between the AHL and NHL, much better than his draft level would indicate. The reverse is also true, there are lots of 1st round duds over the years that never develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe-max Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Predicting development is just too complex and too many factors affect how someone turns out. I'm actually surprised and impressed how successful and reliable the whole process has become. A 17/18 year old draftee could... - get hit by injuries - find other priorities in life - reach his peak early - find out that the sacrifices of a professional athlete's life are not for him - meet the wrong friends/girlfriends/coaches/clubs - struggle with language/intercultural differences/adult independency/leaving home - lose touch with reality/get spoiled by money - struggle with expectations/competition .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdubuya Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 57 minutes ago, joe-max said: Predicting development is just too complex and too many factors affect how someone turns out. I'm actually surprised and impressed how successful and reliable the whole process has become. A 17/18 year old draftee could... - get hit by injuries - find other priorities in life - reach his peak early - find out that the sacrifices of a professional athlete's life are not for him - meet the wrong friends/girlfriends/coaches/clubs - struggle with language/intercultural differences/adult independency/leaving home - lose touch with reality/get spoiled by money - struggle with expectations/competition .... and this just assumes that they were evaluated properly in the first place compound the above factors with the fact that scouts are ranking players that play in different leagues against different levels of competition (skill and physicality) -- WHL, OHL, QMJHL, BCHL (and other provincial junior A leagues) USHL, US College, Russia, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Switzerland....etc and it gets even harder. Further compounded by the fact that 18 year olds bodies are not equally developed.... drafting isn't an exact science. Guys like JB have seen a lot in 20+ years of doing it tho....scouts that are good know what to look for in terms of style, speed, size, background, attitude... but even great scouts make mistakes from time to time. And I'm sure some of these 'mistakes' were good calls at the time but as joe-max outlined, life has a way of messing up potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuck_in_england Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/4/2017 at 3:51 PM, elvis15 said: Pretty much the above, where the early draft age has both risk and potential for players after they've been picked. The talk of moving the draft age to 19 would take some risk away, but also some of that surprise for players drafted so late to do so well. Just in case you hadn't seen it, England, there's a thread for general hockey questions that might be useful to you. You could find answers to other questions there, and you don't ever have to worry about looking like a newbie with a basic question (this one was fine). Thanks a lot for that....I'll know for next time! Thanks for the info all, nice to see the surprises come through now and again, especially if it benefits us ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBackup Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Scouting is also not an exact science. Scouts don't have crystal balls. The team is essentially betting which players are going to turn out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
189lb enforcers? Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 late bloomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 22 hours ago, joe-max said: Predicting development is just too complex and too many factors affect how someone turns out. I'm actually surprised and impressed how successful and reliable the whole process has become. A 17/18 year old draftee could... - get hit by injuries - find other priorities in life - reach his peak early - find out that the sacrifices of a professional athlete's life are not for him - meet the wrong friends/girlfriends/coaches/clubs - struggle with language/intercultural differences/adult independency/leaving home - lose touch with reality/get spoiled by money - struggle with expectations/competition .... Injuries are huge as well and something I missed. Getting injured can both hamper that players ability and also take them out of hockey during key development years. Canucks have had a lot of bad luck. Josh Holden was a very promising prospect for us until he injured his wrist, for an undersized sniper that is critical: " Playing in a playoff series with Moose Jaw, Holden lost his glove on a shift that resulted in an opponent's skate accidentally slicing his wrist. The result was 10 of 12 tendons on the base of Holden's left hand were completely severed. Doctors were able to surgically reattach the tendons, but Holden struggled to learn how to use his rebuilt wrist including how to hold a hockey stick. "Mobility just isn't the same," Holden said upon turning pro in 1999. "It's tough to bend my wrist and grip my stick. But I've had a whole year to get used to it. I've got some exercises I can do; if I keep doing them it will only help."" Bryan Allen is another prospect of ours who had his development hampered by injuries but still developed into a good defender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danaimo Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 It quite refreshing to read just insightful responses. I cannot very much more to what has already been said other than that huge intangible of life, Luck. Some players just get a slight edge but way of a bit of luck and that influences the course of their entire career. I remember a story that Jason Garrison was spotted by the wife of a BCHL coach, she mentioned what she had seen to her husband who later checked him out, signed him to a BCHL contract and he ended up in the NHL. He may have gone anywhere if it had not been for bossy Mrs Bestwick !! This thread should become essential reading for people that complain that their team scouting staff suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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