Crystal Ball The Contracts...

[Convincing John]

On 4/14/2021 at 9:25 AM, Provost said:

I think we have less cap space moving forward than most are thinking.

 

Everyone just thinks that when Eriksson goes and the Luongo cap hit is gone, then we are in the clear.

 

Unfortunately we have raises coming to a bunch of extensions every year and we should anticipate 5 years of basically flat cap... so we won’t get relief by it continuing to rise.

 

2021 - Extensions for Hughes, Petterson, Demko kick in for probably $19 million in total.  We can assume 3 year bridge deals for the first two since we can’t afford to lock them in long term.  Juolevi needs a show me 1-2 year deal.

 

2022 - this is the only year more money is coming off the books than will be owed in raises.  We can’t spend it all though, as we have raises owed in subsequent years.  Brock goes up to $7 million minimum this year 

 

2023 - Horvat and Miller are due new contracts. Hoglander will be coming off his ELC and due a big raise if he is a top 6.  Conservatively say $6 million in raises between them.  Juolevi will need to get extended, if he works out that is a big raise... if he doesn’t, we need to find a top 4D somewhere.

 

2024 - The Petterson and Hughes bridge deals will expire and they will need to get locked in long term.  Podkolzin will also roll off his ELC and get paid market rate.

What worries me is that Jim isn’t changing the behaviour that caused these cap issues. We will be in a cap crunch as long as he is in charge. If he could just stop with the 3-4 year support player contracts for even a calendar year we would be so much better off.  

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, Convincing John said:

What worries me is that Jim isn’t changing the behaviour that caused these cap issues. We will be in a cap crunch as long as he is in charge. If he could just stop with the 3-4 year support player contracts for even a calendar year we would be so much better off.  

I would argue that he has changed, since signing Tyler Myers.  

 

I don't consider Pearson's 3.25 mil/year contract to be outrageously overpriced like some of our fans.  

 

Anyways, you might be right but I feel like we've seen a change in Jim over the last calendar year. 

[Convincing John]

1 hour ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I would argue that he has changed, since signing Tyler Myers.  

 

I don't consider Pearson's 3.25 mil/year contract to be outrageously overpriced like some of our fans.  

 

Anyways, you might be right but I feel like we've seen a change in Jim over the last calendar year. 

It’s not a bad contract if you have your core locked up and lots of flexibility. We don’t have any of that. 

[IBatch]

On 4/14/2021 at 12:23 PM, Provost said:

For every player that leaves, we need to replace them.  We currently have a below average prospect pool as most of our guys have already graduated to the NHL.  Next year once Podkolzin (and possibly even Lind and Rathbone) on the team, we will again have a bottom end prospect pool, with really only our upcoming top 10 pick as a legit shot at being a higher end NHLer.

 

There isn’t much cheap help coming after this wave of guys, so replacing expiring contracts will be at market prices.

We currently ranked 14th, with 4 of our top 5 predicted to see ice time next year by THN, and that's without Hogs and OJ in the ranking (just came a few days ago).  Have to say i was pleasantly surprised.   After years of 9, 3,3,4 yes all the best guys graduated, with the exception of Podz who still ranks 12 even with last years draft and a concussion this year ... better then any of our guys but EP and QHs (BB was 22 one year, Demko not far from that and OJ was in the 20's a couple times too)...I agree our time  near the top is over.    Even our 21 and under group is faded as guys aged out...that's a good thing as far as competing goes.   Lind isn't in that group either.    Slightly above average pool.   Not below (yet, that won't happen until we start to compete and trade picks to plug holes). 

 

 

The bright side is the team can't afford that many more core guys, if all three of Podz, Hogs and OJ work out it's probably too many.   One will have to be traded.   Support players is what we need.   And we have a bevy of those, 6-8 will get a go at some point, how many work out is anyone's guess.   Rathbone/Woo combo is doing very well in the AHL...Rathbone is ranked 2...Woo is 8.  MD 3, so there is hope yet for him (and he's the guy not expected to make the show next year).  

 

Another good draft and we can expect to stand our ground (middling, slightly above average)..   Again JB ranked 8th for ADP over the last four years, on this he's very consistent, and they don't include if you don't have all your picks under this system, missing a first and second last year well that's going to affect this.   A little surprised he managed that.  

 

Missing one year's high picks  for sure impacted that.    Interestingly both ANA and LA get very high marks, SJ is sitting 30th.   Brought up how LA might actually get a chance one more time with their aging vets because they were willing to make trades and kept of of their own for quite sometime (under Blake), where as Wilson went the opposite way and endless re-tooling has now put them in a very dire situation (not unlike where we were when JB took over).   Going to regret the EK signing.  

 

Vegas continues to be meh, they have a vet team, and will be fine for years with it...don't need a strong pool of you have a strong team.    TO was 1,2,2 three years in a row and now is back to middling ... they are two or three years ahead of us in their cycle.    OTT is a couple years behind us, but did something we never managed which is a number one ranking.   Looks to be a very good team ... NYR too.  

[aGENT]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

We currently ranked 14th, with 4 of our top 5 predicted to see ice time next year by THN, and that's without Hogs and OJ in the ranking (just came a few days ago).  Have to say i was pleasantly surprised.   After years of 9, 3,3,4 yes all the best guys graduated, with the exception of Podz who still ranks 12 even with last years draft and a concussion this year ... better then any of our guys but EP and QHs (BB was 22 one year, Demko not far from that and OJ was in the 20's a couple times too)...I agree our time  near the top is over.    Even our 21 and under group is faded as guys aged out...that's a good thing as far as competing goes.   Lind isn't in that group either.    Slightly above average pool.   Not below (yet, that won't happen until we start to compete and trade picks to plug holes). 

 

 

The bright side is the team can't afford that many more core guys, if all three of Podz, Hogs and OJ work out it's probably too many.   One will have to be traded.   Support players is what we need.   And we have a bevy of those, 6-8 will get a go at some point, how many work out is anyone's guess.   Rathbone/Woo combo is doing very well in the AHL...Rathbone is ranked 2...Woo is 8.  MD 3, so there is hope yet for him (and he's the guy not expected to make the show next year).  

 

Another good draft and we can expect to stand our ground (middling, slightly above average)..   Again JB ranked 8th for ADP over the last four years, on this he's very consistent, and they don't include if you don't have all your picks under this system, missing a first and second last year well that's going to affect this.   A little surprised he managed that.  

 

Missing one year's high picks  for sure impacted that.    Interestingly both ANA and LA get very high marks, SJ is sitting 30th.   Brought up how LA might actually get a chance one more time with their aging vets because they were willing to make trades and kept of of their own for quite sometime (under Blake), where as Wilson went the opposite way and endless re-tooling has now put them in a very dire situation (not unlike where we were when JB took over).   Going to regret the EK signing.  

 

Vegas continues to be meh, they have a vet team, and will be fine for years with it...don't need a strong pool of you have a strong team.    TO was 1,2,2 three years in a row and now is back to middling ... they are two or three years ahead of us in their cycle.    OTT is a couple years behind us, but did something we never managed which is a number one ranking.   Looks to be a very good team ... NYR too.  

Bang on post IBatch. Particularly the bolded.

 

I keep laughing when people suggest our drafting isn't that good or that our pool sucks etc. Literally the deepest organizational depth this club had ever had and as you point out, we don't really need a whole lot more in the way of 'star' ceiling, key/core guys (though we're likely adding another blue chipper this coming draft). Most of those guys are already here/graduated (Podkolzin/Rathbone likely the two more notable exceptions).

 

We mostly need depth/support pieces to fill in around those guys. Exactly the types we're busting with in our pool (Jasek, Lind, Gadjovich, Woo, Jurmo, Focht, Karlsson, Costmar, Lockwood, McDonagh, Tryamkin, Persson, Utunen, etc, etc). Not all of those guys will make it but a few will and they're exactly what we need. Solid, cheap, support/depth pieces.

 

And yes, assuming all the 'big' guys who are already here/on the cusp and trending well, stick, we're likely to have to eventually move a guy or two.

[Timråfan]

12 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I would argue that he has changed, since signing Tyler Myers.  

 

I don't consider Pearson's 3.25 mil/year contract to be outrageously overpriced like some of our fans.  

 

Anyways, you might be right but I feel like we've seen a change in Jim over the last calendar year. 

Flames and Leafs have a few similar players around 0,7 mill so 3,25 is at least 3 bottom 6 player missing. 
4x0,8 mill =3,2 mill

 

I would have waited til I knew more about next season before I would hand out such contract. 

 

[aGENT]

Further to that @IBatch I love how Benning and Co have a knack for finding clutch/character guys, even for those 'depth' prospects, that do things like this:

 

 

 

[IBatch]

42 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Further to that @IBatch I love how Benning and Co have a knack for finding clutch/character guys, even for those 'depth' prospects, that do things like this:

 

 

 

JB IMO, will end up going down in history as one of the better GMs we've had.   We've had three others that were good to very good before and a couple decent ones too.    Even now we still have a slightly above average prospect pool, and that's with Hogs and OJ graduating.   Wish the haters on this site could see the forest for the trees, but most can't get over one bad contract and a few questionable ones, despite the utter fact that every single team in this league, including the "contenders" have them too.  

 

 Yes our bottom six isn't good enough (yet) and yes our D isn't solidified yet either and yes Horvat needs one more winger.   That said...Rathbone and Woo are one of the better AHL pairings at the moment. THN put MD as our third best prospect last week.   And said four of our top five will be in the NHL next year  if not sooner.   Lind wasn't part of that group, neither was Woo, same with MD, our third best prospect.    The support players are in place.    And Podz slipped from 10-12 ... man look at the guys around him this guys a core player.   Demko, BB never came close to that.

 

Just trying to say two things.  One no team can afford a block of players that excel.   We are already close to what we can afford.   Every team needs cheap support players, we are almost there too.    JB without a real draft last year, still managed 8th overall ADP.   This system does 4 years of drafting but doesn't consider lost or extra picks.    Won't see me complaining about this. 

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, aGENT said:

Bang on post IBatch. Particularly the bolded.

 

I keep laughing when people suggest our drafting isn't that good or that our pool sucks etc. Literally the deepest organizational depth this club had ever had and as you point out, we don't really need a whole lot more in the way of 'star' ceiling, key/core guys (though we're likely adding another blue chipper this coming draft). Most of those guys are already here/graduated (Podkolzin/Rathbone likely the two more notable exceptions).

 

We mostly need depth/support pieces to fill in around those guys. Exactly the types we're busting with in our pool (Jasek, Lind, Gadjovich, Woo, Jurmo, Focht, Karlsson, Costmar, Lockwood, McDonagh, Tryamkin, Persson, Utunen, etc, etc). Not all of those guys will make it but a few will and they're exactly what we need. Solid, cheap, support/depth pieces.

 

And yes, assuming all the 'big' guys who are already here/on the cusp and trending well, stick, we're likely to have to eventually move a guy or two.

I sure hope we will have to move a guy or two, as that can keep us in the middle draft pool pack for a while longer.  There isn't a bubble contender or actual contender team in the league that has a pretty decent  pool right now.  That's the cycle.    TB has drafted well but that seems to have hit a wall, and of any team right now i might be most impressed with Blake in LA.  Unlike his peer group in the Cali teams, he both recognized and did something about his pool, didn't trade his first picks and added some too with Muzzin and TT.    ANA was a contender not too long ago and is floating.  SJ is well let's just say, totally completely screwed if they don't pull the plug soon.   I'd wager a decade for them to turn things around if they don't.   OTT and NYRs deserve props, especially OTT.   They have an freaking amazing pool, picks and some good pieces already.   I've always said SJ and DET our best comps.   SJ re-tool worked and worked great for awhile but they are in the same spot we were when JB came aboard right now - the sooner they get on with it the better.     Detroit is already into a new GM and they are already rebuilding a rebuild.   Our team is a lot like CAR minus the two rebuilds to get there.   Never thought we'd be in this position, figured we'd be like Detroit.   

[Nuxfanabroad]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

I sure hope we will have to move a guy or two, as that can keep us in the middle draft pool pack for a while longer.  There isn't a bubble contender or actual contender team in the league that has a pretty decent  pool right now.  That's the cycle.    TB has drafted well but that seems to have hit a wall, and of any team right now i might be most impressed with Blake in LA.  Unlike his peer group in the Cali teams, he both recognized and did something about his pool, didn't trade his first picks and added some too with Muzzin and TT.    ANA was a contender not too long ago and is floating.  SJ is well let's just say, totally completely screwed if they don't pull the plug soon.   I'd wager a decade for them to turn things around if they don't.   OTT and NYRs deserve props, especially OTT.   They have an freaking amazing pool, picks and some good pieces already.   I've always said SJ and DET our best comps.   SJ re-tool worked and worked great for awhile but they are in the same spot we were when JB came aboard right now - the sooner they get on with it the better.     Detroit is already into a new GM and they are already rebuilding a rebuild.   Our team is a lot like CAR minus the two rebuilds to get there.   Never thought we'd be in this position, figured we'd be like Detroit.   

Good posts, IB.

 

Starting to see WPG as a bit of a comparable for us, these days. They've got more size, but if the bfg comes back, we'll be closer there. It's hard to comparably time-line these things; but of course their current core has been on the rise, longer than our young cast. Where I would expect most sensible rebuilds to start blueline & then address fwds, looks like the Jets accomplished the reverse. We might replicate their feat.

 

18 mos back, the Jets appeared on the ropes. Their D was decimated, & they had to turn it over & go young. Wasn't exactly by choice, & most GM's are mighty reluctant for speedy blueline facelifts. Well they look pretty damn fine today. At this point, I'd favour the Jets to emerge from the North.

 

I like their character too. Chevy(mostly) has drafted & traded well. Most of their top talent is home-grown.

There are quite a few similarities.

[Nuxfanabroad]

Since crystal balls are currently in vogue, givin' this a bump. A glimpse of the dog daze(!) of summer in 2018, when rosters were not as exciting.

Names like Jake, Gaud & Edler are favourably swapped for(mostly) younger skaters NH, VP, Garland, Miller & OEL.

 

I had hoped we could get 7, 8 top-end players in the 6, or 7 million $ (AAV) range. Now appears we might wind up with possibly 10 players, under that rate.

 

So here we are, from Aug 11, 2018 -> Aug 11, 2021...

[Nuxfanabroad]

On 8/12/2018 at 1:16 AM, captainhorvat said:

gagner, edler, erikkson, markstrom, sutter, beagal and roussel will all be f'd off by then so we will be fine.

Oops! We still got one :^)

[captainhorvat]

8 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Oops! We still got one :^)

6 for 7 not bad man