Next 5 years and prospects....

[189lb enforcers?]

6 hours ago, oldnews said:

I don't know about that.

 

Tyler Madden just finsihed his rookie NCAA season with 28 pts in 36 games - one of the best players - as an 18 yr old - on a team that won the Hockey East tournament (beat Boston U and Boston College).

 

By comparison, Gaudette, scored 30 pts in 41 games for that same Northeastern team as a rookie, was not as prominent on a team that was arguably not as good as Madden's was this season - on track to his eventual Hobey Baker.

 

So is Gaudette 'pretty shallow in skill'? 

 

Or are  you maybe underplaying the skill that guys like this possess - and possibly their potential in the process?  Not every player is going to have the trajectory of an EP - many of them take years to become a Sedin, Kesler,  Burrows, Hansen, Edler etc.  But how many high end skilled prospects does it take to satisfy fan expectations?  And how realistic are those expectations in the first place?

 

Likewise with players like Woo, or Lind or whomever....not sure why some people are determined to prejudge them as lacking the skill/potential to develop into future core 'supplement' players.  No one can expect that - and no one really knows who among them will turn out - but it's equally irrational imo to believe the team lacks future core supplements as it is to expect/predict that a Madden or Gaudette will be the next Hansen/Kesler or whomever....It's possible....

 

But there's nothing to "admit" about it.  You and I don't have the knowledge or foresight to deem the pool "pretty shallow".  It only takes one or two more outliers turning out here and there in the end to make a relatively highly successful prospect pool.  At this point, I'd argue that the signs are easily there to indicate that there's as much possibility one way as the other - so posts/OP's like this are as premature and unfounded as one's declaring the next contending core in the bag and 'greatness' clearly on the horizon.  

When we play the crystal ball game this is what we get.

I chimed into this thread to advocate for the devil or whatever at the risk of this very counter, which could be argued from either position with equal futility, which is aligned with you point. As soon as we play the read the future game, this is where we go. I should know better to bother with anything projection related, but I’m a sucker 

[oldnews]

20 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

When we play the crystal ball game this is what we get.

I chimed into this thread to advocate for the devil or whatever at the risk of this very counter, which could be argued from either position with equal futility, which is aligned with you point. As soon as we play the read the future game, this is where we go. I should know better to bother with anything projection related, but I’m a sucker 

Yeah - it's not easy to remain level-headed when you have this dynamic constantly playing out - of (extreme) optimism vs (extremely) negative expectations.....

The absolute best of scouts - don't really have a handle on a lof of the prospects out there, let alone be realistically able to provide 'realistic' comparisons of entire prospect pools - it's relative fool's game territory - any person only has so much exposure, information, etc to all those players.   And then, even with all the volumes of scouts out there looking for the next NHL asset  - guys come out of relative 'nowhere' - as players develop and emerge on really different trajectories - lots of them not necessarily indicating by the time they are 18 yrs old / draft age.  If that weren't the case, there wouldn't be handfuls of relatively NHL quality prospects that slip through and wind up being signed as undrafted free agents at the end of each college/CHL/Euro season - years after their draft windows - better players than a fair number of guys that go in the top 30 or 60 in any draft.   But we're all suckers for it - have our hunches or observations about guys - get 'fooled' -  and there are also those guys that indicate fairly strongly - and keep doing so....I think in Gaudette's draft season, there were probably a fair number of us who were every bit as convinced that Carl Neill could be something special  - and a year or two later - not so much.  

In terms of latent skill in the system though - I think that Madden is one guy that is making a case for himself.    Players get 'projected' to have various limits - at age 18 - and yet there is an endless set of examples of players that break those projections - part of the reason I think it's nonsense when I hear claims by the smarmies et al that love to play that fool's game - 'experts' in the making - who also often get outraged when seasoned NHL hockey people move on from players like Shinkaruk, Dahlen or pick your poison / pet project / flavour of the week.   I recall the canuckssmarmy articles about Gaudette - wondering how the Canucks could have mistaken the guy for someone worth drafting....

 

One thing about Madden though that I recall from the draft floor - was how infuriated Stan Bowman appeared when the Canucks took him right before the Hawks pick.  He seems like one of those players that some seasoned eyes were strongly drawn to - and appears to be upticking in a way that confirmed their impressions.  In other words..."I got a feeling about this guy' lol - think he's gonna be a surprise middle six beast!  (jk....I don't fn know).

Edited April 9, 2019 by oldnews

[vannuck59]

3 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

For example if a player puts up just 3 goals in his rookie AHL season his probability of success goes down, that's just how it works, of course anything can happen but that doesn't mean we can't rely on odds and probabilities.  Someone like Gadjovich could turn in to a Todd Bertuzzi but I'm not going to project that because its highly unlikely at this point.  

 

Anything can always happen. A player like Kole Lind is at this point, more likely to become a Cole Cassels than a Tyler Toffoli.  Point being, it's realistic to look at the farm system right now and say we don't have much coming.  Our college guys could prove a higher possibility once they finish their first pro seasons but that is still 2 years away, when referring to the likes of Lockwood, Madden and Rathbone.  

 

If it wasn't for an influx of college signings at the end of the year, we would be stuck with pretty much zilch coming to our AHL club next season in terms of prospects.  5 years in and still struggling to fill our farm system with our own draft picks.  More attention needs to be paid to Utica and the lack of picks attained will begin to hurt us as our NHL youth develops and need an inexpensive supporting cast coming up to help.  It can be saved with a good FA signing or two, or it could come crashing down if we sign the wrong guy (again). Can't swing and miss on July 1st

 

 

Holly cow the sky is falling , If Benning wants to improve his prospect pool he should concentrate on picking better players after the 3 round clearly drafting a small Fin and Russian where   a waste of picks. He needs to acquire more picks in the first and second round . Scout every league abroad and sign free agents that he can turn around at the dead line and sell. you look at Montreal . Just about a playoff team this year and last year they were worse than us. Make trades don't sit on your hands and hope and wish. 

[canucksnihilist]

No point complaining about the past.  Just do something now.  There is no future.

 

I’d like to see the team focus on stockpiling Utica.  Our picks aren’t going to go straight to the bigs going forward as we are picking later from now on... we all remember what that was like, right?  It will work out naturally - as long as picks and prospects aren’t fodder for quick fixes then the farm team will get better.  IF!!!  And if we keep signing mid level FAs then these players will never get called up - which is a huge part of development.  IF!!!

 

we will see... the MO of the general manager is to take the quick fix, cause that = contract extension by way of revenues.   It’s a tough sell to ownership, so we will see....

[oldnews]

8 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

Anything can always maybe happen but if for example, a player puts up just 3 goals in his rookie AHL season his probability of success goes down, that's just how it works, of course anything can happen but that doesn't mean we can't rely on odds and probabilities.  Someone like Gadjovich could turn in to a Todd Bertuzzi but I'm not going to project that because its highly unlikely at this point.  

 

. A player like Kole Lind is at this point, more likely to become a Cole Cassels than a Tyler Toffoli. 

 

Why are you going on about Gadjovich in response to a post about Madden?

 

Thanks for your crystal ball work where Lind is concerned - if anything my point is that it's pretentious to claim that a player will - or will not - become an NHLer in due course - and here you are responding with Cole Cassells comparables.

 

Lind spent a few months this year injured in his rookie AHL campaign - so well done - you've picked a guy that was also set back by injuries early.

 

In any event I think you're hopelessly oversimplifying things - if I were to do the 'look at their rookie AHL production' thing and believe that it's as solid a predictor of a career as you have, I'd have given up on my favorite Leaf in his first AHL season....turns out that Kapanen aint so bad after all.

 

Anyhow, this is tail chasing material at this point.

[Crimson]

On 4/5/2019 at 10:38 AM, appleboy said:

The lack of depth outside the nhl means they have one choice. UFA market. They will dump tons of cash at it. That's my fear. Not accumulating extra picks is beginning to catch up with them. 

Will they be willing to step back and be patient for a couple more years? 

Yeah, they're spending all of your hard earned money...

 

If they wait a couple more years Bo will be 27 and, according to half of this board, he will have to be traded for picks.

 

We can't rebuild forever otherwise by the time we are "ready" our top guys will be getting paid and we won't be able to ice the team you envision.

[oldnews]

Just now, The 5th Line said:

So Lind can be considered as a good Benning pick who likely has an NHL career...

I'm not gonna play "so what you're saying" games with you.   You haven't bothered to see the point I was making.   You are merely substituting your own binary counterpoint = a reverse fool's game - and a strawman.

 

Probably the best quote on matters like this came from an NHL coach - I think it was Trotz = "we'll know when we know".  You don't - I don't - you insisting that you can predict the failure of Lind is a waste of time imo.

[oldnews]

Just now, The 5th Line said:

Okay so what the hell are we doing here then? Why do we even have a prospects forum if we can't discuss the probabilities?   Are the forums just here to congratulate them every time they score a goal, or talk about their personal lives and what they post on Instagram.

Go ahead and make all the predictions you want - and spin off into meaningless instagram straw while you're at it.

You're talking about a rookie AHLer who appears to have spent two months of the season with a fairly serious elbow injury - and you're putting way too much faith in your own ability to 'predict' his future - based on something that is highly reductive - one sample of mitigated AHL rookie scoring.  That may be enough for you - it's not for me, thanks. 

I think we're probably done wasting our time on this - at least I am.  If I stop responding - don't mistake it for something it's not.

 

[Gurn]

22 hours ago, oldnews said:

It's ironic that the principal criticisms in the present are the lack of talent coming out of Utica, while Demko, Gaudette, Sautner, Brisebois, MacEwen all get callups - in part making Utica that much shallower.

+++

One could say that Demko and Gaudette have now made the big team.

[Crimson]

10 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

Anything can always maybe happen but if for example, a player puts up just 3 goals in his rookie AHL season his probability of success goes down, that's just how it works, of course anything can happen but that doesn't mean we can't rely on odds and probabilities.  Someone like Gadjovich could turn in to a Todd Bertuzzi but I'm not going to project that because its highly unlikely at this point.  

 

. A player like Kole Lind is at this point, more likely to become a Cole Cassels than a Tyler Toffoli.  Point being, it's realistic to look at the farm system right now and say we don't have much coming.  Our college guys could prove a higher possibility once they finish their first pro seasons but that is still 2 years away, when referring to the likes of Lockwood, Madden and Rathbone.  

 

Our AHL squad is extremely underwhelming when it comes to young talent.  Look at the top 10 scorers on Utica right now.  We have Zack MacEwen looking good, Jasek is just meh and that's it.  Add in Juolevi but he's a huge question mark at this point. Compared to other AHL teams it's kind of pathetic really, I could pull out almost any AHL roster and point to numerous young players that these teams have scoring at a much higher rate than any of our young players.  It's grim

 

If it wasn't for an influx of college signings at the end of the year, we would be stuck with pretty much zilch coming to our AHL club next season in terms of prospects.  5 years in and still struggling to fill our farm system with our own draft picks?  More attention needs to be paid to Utica and the lack of picks attained will begin to hurt us as our NHL youth develops and need an inexpensive supporting cast coming up to help.  It can be saved with a good FA signing or two, or it could come crashing down if we sign the wrong guy (again). Can't swing and miss on July 1st

 

 

OK, but 5 of our last 6 first round picks are already playing in the NHL and the 6th is injured.

 

How do all those other teams look if you discount their first rounders that haven't been good enough to make it to the NHL?

[IBatch]

15 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

Pick a squad at random and I'll show you.

 

We were one of the few teams without an actual young core to work with, Benning has done a great job creating our core, but hasn't added extra depth needed via draft picks.  Where we were at as a team, we needed extra picks to create the depth, that's why rebuilding teams add lots and lots of picks, they create their new young core with the top end picks, and then have a mass of longer shot prospects who take the AHL route. We have only attained just enough to build our initial core, now we lack the secondary depth.  Sure it looks like it is coming, but it's been a long wait just to fill our system with a quanity of prospects

 

TB

 

OR

 

OTT

 

Actually do both please, chose these at random.  For these “young support players “ please include what year and round those players were drafted and don’t include any player that has made the big club (Batherson and Cerilli for example)

[NewbieCanuckFan]

On 4/9/2019 at 3:58 AM, The 5th Line said:

 

Our AHL squad is extremely underwhelming when it comes to young talent.  Look at the top 10 scorers on Utica right now.  We have Zack MacEwen looking good, Jasek is just meh and that's it.  Add in Juolevi but he's a huge question mark at this point. Compared to other AHL teams it's kind of pathetic really, I could pull out almost any AHL roster and point to numerous young players that these teams have scoring at a much higher rate than any of our young players.  It's grimw

 

 

 

When Gaunce (not young but still just turned 25 weeks ago) is in you top four in points and goals, you know you’re in trouble.

[IBatch]

5 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

Syracuse is the epitome of development.  You probably shouldn't pick them http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0005082019.html

 

Ottawa has Batherson, Brown, Balcers, Chlapik as 21 and under leading the way and Paul, Tambelliini, and Wolanin 23 and under to round out there top 10http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0081582019.html

 

Utica has Jasek and MacEwen as 22 and under.  The rest are 24 and up.  Boucher, Gaunce, Darcy, Mceneny 

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0070412019.html

 

Kind of unrelated but another tidbit..

 

Cal Foote, Linds old rockets teammate putting his point totals to Shame, as is Nicolas Hague the 6'6 defenceman taken 1 spot after Lind in 2017 

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=18743

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=179662&encode=

Most of OTTs guys are in already, I’d include Batherson in that group the rest are comparable to pretty much any team in the AHL.  Brown is their exception, he should make it once he gets his chance. 

 

Syracuse has the title for the most dominant AHL team ever...and did it with only a couple of guys that went on and made an impact in the NHL which is my point.  You can name names all you want, but the good played don’t play many games in the AHL and aside from all-time great Bower, the star vets of their teams often don’t play many or any games in the NHL.  You can have a great AHL team and virtually little NHL talent which is the point.  Boucher’s and Veys everywhere...is it really “great depth” when you call one of them up to replace an injured player?  Maybe.  

 

The only year the AHL ever really developed a bunch of future NHLers was the lockout year, and E Staal had his best year and topped 100 points the year after.  Perry and Getzlaf spent half a year and were called up and soon won a cup in ANA, doesn’t mean they are depth as they were always destined for first line duties.  PPGers they were just like Vey and Goldobin was.  

 

Syracuse who do they have left that is going to make TBs lineup?

 

TO had the best AHL team last year and leading scorer A Johnsson is now a part of the team, same with Kapannen, what does that mean for their AHL depth right now?

 

Its rarely the rookies and prospects driving the bus down there, it’s the vets, the Gaunce plus five year later.  Those guys can be relied on for spot duty only as they have already had their chances.  

 

The AHL rookies and sophomores are the prospects...we had OJ and Dahlen that made some impact this year, Lind didn’t play lots or meaningful minutes same with JG.   I don’t think how good an AHL team is means as much as prospects quickly moving in and out of that system.   Benning started with a bag of pucks plus Horvat and Hutton...why don’t we give it a year or two and see how things are then before we place too much emphasis on how good our AHL team is.  Could be great and still not have quality depth or NHL caliber talent in it aside from a few guys that won’t be there long anyways.

[IBatch]

Just now, The 5th Line said:

@IBatch. I disagree with basicallly everything you just said.  You are dead wrong about Syracuse.  Go to hockey DB and look at the syracuse history and look at this year, they have multiple young players leading the way. 

 

I provided the links, don't ignore them

Are we discussing the same thing?  

[IBatch]

23 minutes ago, The 5th Line said:

My point being, people are listing our prospects in the A as proof that we have a lot coming up, so I'm saying if we have a lot coming up, then they better add 2 more teams to the league because every team has guys "coming up". In terms of young guys contributing to their AHL teams we are at the very bottom of the list, which imo is unacceptable in year 4?5?6? Of a rebuild

 

You are discrediting Ottawa because their guys graduated near the end of the year?  They all still played major minutes and put up good numbers this season in the AHL and were called up because the parent team actually sold off old assets

That I agree with.  What I’m saying is AHL teams good or bad doesn’t necessarily mean a team has good depth options.  A lot of the AHLs leading scorers don’t translate into the NHL...I used the Norfolk Admirals 2011-2012 team as an example.  They were the most dominant team in league history, yet their parent club was just two games above .500 that year...so much for their great depth.   On that team we’re some solid NHLers in Johnson and Palat, but their leading scorer Conacher’s career amounted to a cup of coffee in TB and OTT...and he was a PPGer like Goldobin and Vey (and the end played about as many games) , and Palat really was about as impressive as Dahlen was this year in Utica.  

 

Anyone over 23-24 in the AHL is pushing a career in the AHL or possibly Europe, if your there much past that your chances for anything more than a few games due to injuries is very slim.  There are exceptions of course which is why I brought Bower up, he’s the only other goalie in pro hockey history other than Broduer to post 600 wins, and joined the league in his mid thirties.   Thomas did it too but he played all over including Europe.   There are outliers but most of the guys past 24 are already career minor pros, that may or may not play well when called upon (and signing one after a good year often wastes a contract).

 

Our team right now has a group of aged out guys like Gaunce and ones that aren’t signed.  Lind and JG didnt have great first years but it doesn’t mean they will suck ... but it doesn’t mean they will make it either.  Watch JG he looked fine, and his skating is better already.  Dahlen was good, I’m mad about losing him.  OJ was decent too (live).  Demko well he’s all but graduated.  Boucher is a decent depth option.  There will be a new crop of support players that will trickle in, at least the ones that don’t go straight to the NHL (Diepetro, Madden, Woo etc once they are allowed)...I’d expect the team improves, but also know that it really doesn’t matter either, as long as our prospects make the NHL whatever is happening down there isn’t a big deal, of course winning would be a better environment... but it’s not the end of the world either.

[IBatch]

44 minutes ago, The 5th Line said:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0054192019.html

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0060542019.html

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0081602019.html

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0073882019.html

 

Would you take our AHL club over any of these?  We aren't even close

You do realize that a lot of those guys listed played a handful of games only, and only a couple had 40 points right?  And a lot of them were maintenance games too for NHL roster players too.   None of those rosters gets me excited...

[Canuck Surfer]

On ‎4‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 3:52 AM, janisahockeynut said:

Yeah Man?

 

We played 5 rookies and a sophomore last night...…..that is pretty good, considering 5 out of the 6 are bonified NHLers

 

[wai_lai416]

On 4/5/2019 at 9:02 AM, Jimmy McGill said:

Utica hasn't developed "quality"? what about Demko? Gaudette? Jake? Saunter? Bresbois? and probably Juolevi once we finally get to have a look.

 

You're also ignoring the potential of MacEwan, Lind and Gadjovich, its too soon to call them busts or that the cupboard is "bare" while they are still in the system.

 

We also have DiPieto, Woo, Rathbone and whoever we pick this year, and the new crop of college guys we just got all set to make appearances in Utica in the next 1 or 2 seasons.

 

Not sure what your expectations are, to turn all non-1st rounders into 1st rounders? Utica isn't there to turn every player into a superstar. 

 

 

why do ppl keep referring to gaudette sautner bresboi and juolevi? guadette played a grand total of 14 games in utica.. if anything he developed in his playing days in the NCAA and then on the big club.. sautner and briesbois both are hardly NHL ready.. they are not even on this team if we are not missing edler tanev hutton and whoever else at the same time nor are they going to be our depth 7th defenseman next  year.. jake? what developement have he shown other than inconsistency? he had a really hot streak to start the season and then disappeared pretty much the rest of the season production wise back to where he's been all other seasons.. MacEwan have completely fallen off the radar in the 2nd half of utica's season.. Lind and Gadjovich if anything have gone backwards in their develeopment.. they both look lost in utica if you watched any games.. there's something very wrong in utica.. we gave them prospect to develop and they hardly developed anything this year. even Demko we brought him up to the NHL to spend a month with our goalie coach to fix his technique. There's a reason why Benning have to personally go down to Utica to see what the hell is going on down there.. i expect the coach and or maybe ryan johnson to both be relieved of their duties. 

 

Utica isn't there to turn every player into superstar, they haven't turned a single player into a star let along a bonafide consistent NHLer.. Demko maybe? he played like 5 games.. and he had to spend a month with our goalie coach to fix his technique so there's obviously something they don't like in his game.. Virtanen? i predict he'll be packaged by TDL if he doesn't start using his body and drive the net more with that speed of his.. Juolevi? if he can stay healthy? he's been injured so much the last couple years makes you wonder if he can even survive staying healthy in the NHL or he's just gonna be another Tanev injured for 25-40% of the season every season.. 

[vannuck59]

Utica needs a new coach 

[wai_lai416]

1 hour ago, The 5th Line said:

And dear God lets hope there is no correlation between Benning and Chiarelli, the two former partners in crime, when it comes to the fact that both tried to use picks for players in hopes of speeding up the rebuild, and in both cases has done nothing but give each respective club less draft picks to work while still finishing near the bottom of the standings.  Griffin Reinhart, meet Erik Gudbranson?   We almost saw a Subban for 5th overall and who knows what else go down... Hall for Larsson anyone?  Loui Eriksson, meet Milan Lucic.   Just coincidence I hope.

meh the canucks have the fewest draft picks of any rebuilding teams in the same time span. we have no players worth draft picks it seems and those that we traded for prospect, one is already gone (dahlen) and the other is as good as gone (goldobin). l'm looking at rangers rebuild vs vancouvers rebuild. the rangers will have as much 1st rounders including this draft as vancouver had since 2014 lol.