[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[BPA]

6 minutes ago, peaches5 said:

No, I haven't. The argument was this was a fair deal, I think they could have gotten more lopsided, and that JT Miller stellar play doesn't change the value of the trade because you could not have predicted how good he would be this year. Any time someone pointed that out it was attacked. No one was saying it was a horrible trade. Anytime, something that wasn't overly positive was posted it was attacked. There needs to be two sides to a discussion and some of these formulas of judging this trade people have created are ridiculous.

 

You just can't reply to posts that show you are blatantly wrong. Second time you've done it.

So just wondering.  How lopsided of a deal do YOU think Vancouver could have gotten?

 

A bad counter offer could have driven TB to make a trade with a different team.

[peaches5]

3 minutes ago, HomeBrew said:

Reading comprehension fails you apparently. 

 

1. A first round pick is always a high price to give away. It doesn't mean they gave up too much. 

2. Who cares? 

3. Yeah, it could. But, it might not. What's your point? 

No, it doesn't. You have two reporters directly after the trade saying it was a steep price to pay. Which could cost The Canucks dearly. Then you have Benning say they paid a fair price. In none of those cases is anyone saying Vancouver won this trade or it's a landslide victory for The Canucks. There was no one saying "oh, wow what an amazing trade this was The Canucks totally fleeced Tampa" like the posters here would have you believe. Tampa was capped strapped, had a player who had a NTC kicking in, and needed to make a move. Under these circumstances you'd like to see your team take more advantage of that teams cap issues.  Vancouver took the fair it was not a fleecing. Don't pretend like it was.

[peaches5]

Just now, BPA said:

So just wondering.  How lopsided of a deal do YOU think Vancouver could have gotten?

 

A bad counter offer could have driven TB to make a trade with a different team.

I stated what I'd like to have seen is for the pick to be protected better. Instead of the condition being the pick staying with The Canucks if they miss the playoffs I'd have preferred The Canucks have the option to defer. They could have better evaluated the team and JT Miller after this season and deferred or kept the pick based on how the team played. If The Canucks finish 15th just outside the playoffs you also can give that pick to Tampa. I don't see this as something Tampa would be opposed to as they could end up with a better pick. The Canucks could finish 15th, drank rankings, this year and then maybe injury problems and get a lottery pick the next year. 

[BPA]

4 minutes ago, peaches5 said:

I stated what I'd like to have seen is for the pick to be protected better. Instead of the condition being the pick staying with The Canucks if they miss the playoffs I'd have preferred The Canucks have the option to defer. They could have better evaluated the team and JT Miller after this season and deferred or kept the pick based on how the team played. If The Canucks finish 15th just outside the playoffs you also can give that pick to Tampa. I don't see this as something Tampa would be opposed to as they could end up with a better pick. The Canucks could finish 15th, drank rankings, this year and then maybe injury problems and get a lottery pick the next year. 

That would have been a better wording for the conditional 1st.  Gives Canucks total control of 1st to give up.

 

Thumbs Up!!

[Hogs & Podz]

This topic is redundant... Move on nothing to see here.  

JT Miller rocks!... There are already many great prospects in our pool.  If we make the playoffs, that pick will be a later 1st and JT was a later 1st correct?.... so?....

Without JT the team wouldn't be in serious contention for a playoff spot... Isn't that what it's all about?!

None of us know why 'he cost so much'... Except... Oh... Yah now maybe we do?!  Geeze, nothin' better to do I guess.  That was 5 mins of my time, done.

 

[higgyfan]

27 minutes ago, peaches5 said:

I stated what I'd like to have seen is for the pick to be protected better. Instead of the condition being the pick staying with The Canucks if they miss the playoffs I'd have preferred The Canucks have the option to defer. They could have better evaluated the team and JT Miller after this season and deferred or kept the pick based on how the team played. If The Canucks finish 15th just outside the playoffs you also can give that pick to Tampa. I don't see this as something Tampa would be opposed to as they could end up with a better pick. The Canucks could finish 15th, drank rankings, this year and then maybe injury problems and get a lottery pick the next year. 

I think suspect that JB and his staff did a lot of investigation around Miller's potential, as well as the team they were icing this season.  I also think that they wanted to protect this year's draft, as it is considered a very deep one.  In a sense, getting a lotto pick this year would somewhat console the disappointment of not securing a playoff spot. 

 

There was a far greater chance of the Canucks not making the P/Os this season, as next season they will have another year of development under their belt.  They will also have increased the quality in farm team depth, in case of injuries.

 

When I first heard of the trade (and after some examination), I thought it was a confident and gutsy move on JB's part.  He threw the dice and is looking to win the jackpot.  Of course, we still don't know the end result of the toss as of yet, but I don't really think that deferring the pick will make any difference in the outcome.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, higgyfan said:

I think suspect that JB and his staff did a lot of investigation around Miller's potential, as well as the team they were icing this season.  I also think that they wanted to protect this year's draft, as it is considered a very deep one.  In a sense, getting a lotto pick this year would somewhat console the disappointment of not securing a playoff spot. 

 

There was a far greater chance of the Canucks not making the P/Os this season, as next season they will have another year of development under their belt.  They will also have increased the quality in farm team depth, in case of injuries.

 

When I first heard of the trade (and after some examination), I thought it was a confident and gutsy move on JB's part.  He threw the dice and is looking to win the jackpot.  Of course, we still don't know the end result of the toss as of yet, but I don't really think that deferring the pick will make any difference in the outcome.

TBay made a humongous mistake.  They should have moved a Smurf.  Just because JB wouldn’t accept anyone but Miller doesn’t mean another GM wouldn’t have taken a Point or Johnston.  

[higgyfan]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

TBay made a humongous mistake.  They should have moved a Smurf.  Just because JB wouldn’t accept anyone but Miller doesn’t mean another GM wouldn’t have taken a Point or Johnston.  

I agree Alf, except they most likely wanted to keep Point (who is just 23 and is their 2C) and let go of Johnson or Gourde, who are both under-performing and older than Miller.

[HomeBrew]

1 hour ago, peaches5 said:

No, it doesn't. You have two reporters directly after the trade saying it was a steep price to pay. Which could cost The Canucks dearly. Then you have Benning say they paid a fair price. In none of those cases is anyone saying Vancouver won this trade or it's a landslide victory for The Canucks. There was no one saying "oh, wow what an amazing trade this was The Canucks totally fleeced Tampa" like the posters here would have you believe. Tampa was capped strapped, had a player who had a NTC kicking in, and needed to make a move. Under these circumstances you'd like to see your team take more advantage of that teams cap issues.  Vancouver took the fair it was not a fleecing. Don't pretend like it was.

1. The fair price was a high price. Both the reporters and Benning are right.

2. It's not a "landslide" victory of a trade, or "fleecing" as you want to call it. But, the Canucks are sure happy with how it is trending for them. I still don't get the impression that you understand how "risk" operates under these kind of trade conditions. 

3. This isn't EA Sports. Just because you want to pay less for value, doesn't mean that BriseBois is going to give it to you - no matter much you want to spin the circumstances. This is purely your opinion, which you are entitled to. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by HomeBrew

[peaches5]

43 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

I think suspect that JB and his staff did a lot of investigation around Miller's potential, as well as the team they were icing this season.  I also think that they wanted to protect this year's draft, as it is considered a very deep one.  In a sense, getting a lotto pick this year would somewhat console the disappointment of not securing a playoff spot. 

 

There was a far greater chance of the Canucks not making the P/Os this season, as next season they will have another year of development under their belt.  They will also have increased the quality in farm team depth, in case of injuries.

 

When I first heard of the trade (and after some examination), I thought it was a confident and gutsy move on JB's part.  He threw the dice and is looking to win the jackpot.  Of course, we still don't know the end result of the toss as of yet, but I don't really think that deferring the pick will make any difference in the outcome.

It wouldn't make much difference for Tampa which is why I think they would have agreed to the condition to defer to pick. It gives The Canucks a little more protection and allows them to see how the team and JT Miller panned out. Unless, like you're saying, JB thinks this draft is far better than next years and he plans to take that top 15 pick no matter what position it is. 

[peaches5]

9 hours ago, HomeBrew said:

1. The fair price was a high price. Both the reporters and Benning are right.

2. It's not a "landslide" victory of a trade, or "fleecing" as you want to call it. But, the Canucks are sure happy with how it is trending for them. I still don't get the impression that you understand how "risk" operates under these kind of trade conditions. 

3. This isn't EA Sports. Just because you want to pay less for value, doesn't mean that BriseBois is going to give it to you - no matter much you want to spin the circumstances. This is purely your opinion, which you are entitled to. 

I understand the risk and that has been a large part of what I have been saying. The risk that was there when this trade was made hasn't gone away because JT Miller turned into a top-line player. You can't use the extremely positive outcome to look back and go "wow this was an amazing trade. I can't believe Benning pulled this off. You can't trade a first round pick for a point per game player." Then also use this trade to compare to other potential trades as way of showing how great of a value the JT Miller trade was. The value isn't changing, there was still that risk that could have happened. The value is stays fair. It was a hockey trade as Benning would say. No one came out on top. I added my opinion that I felt that under the circumstances Benning should have squeezed Tampa moreso to push it more in Vancouver's favour - largely in regards to the conditions of the pick. Never said I hated the trade or JT Miller or the countless other lies that people here posted.

Edited January 27, 2020 by peaches5

[Alflives]

2 hours ago, higgyfan said:

I agree Alf, except they most likely wanted to keep Point (who is just 23 and is their 2C) and let go of Johnson or Gourde, who are both under-performing and older than Miller.

TBay should have played Miller as their 2 center, and in a matchup role, like we did with Kessler and like Bo does now.  I’m glad they screwed up though.  Don’t even want Point.  A center needs to play both ends if the ice to win Cups.  

[HomeBrew]

2 hours ago, peaches5 said:

I understand the risk and that has been a large part of what I have been saying. The risk that was there when this trade was made hasn't gone away because JT Miller turned into a top-line player. You can't use the extremely positive outcome to look back and go "wow this was an amazing trade. I can't believe Benning pulled this off. You can't trade a first round pick for a point per game player." Then also use this trade to compare to other potential trades as way of showing how great of a value the JT Miller trade was. The value isn't changing, there was still that risk that could have happened. The value is stays fair. It was a hockey trade as Benning would say. No one came out on top. I added my opinion that I felt that under the circumstances Benning should have squeezed Tampa moreso to push it more in Vancouver's favour - largely in records to the conditions of the pick. Never said I hated the trade or JT Miller or the countless other lies that people here posted.

Oh, Peaches. My advice? Stick with the bolded and forget about the rest. Cause really... what's more valuable? A 1st overall pick or a 31st overall pick? Of course the value is changing. 

[peaches5]

6 hours ago, HomeBrew said:

Oh, Peaches. My advice? Stick with the bolded and forget about the rest. Cause really... what's more valuable? A 1st overall pick or a 31st overall pick? Of course the value is changing. 

if the 31st pick turns out to be better than the 1st overall it doesn't change the value of the first overall pick or the 31st pick. It was just a very positive outcome for that 31st pick. You can't go back and start making a trade formula for the next 31st pick based off this positive outcome and ignore the possible negative outcomes.

Edited January 27, 2020 by peaches5

[Pears]

11 hours ago, peaches5 said:

I stated what I'd like to have seen is for the pick to be protected better. Instead of the condition being the pick staying with The Canucks if they miss the playoffs I'd have preferred The Canucks have the option to defer. They could have better evaluated the team and JT Miller after this season and deferred or kept the pick based on how the team played. If The Canucks finish 15th just outside the playoffs you also can give that pick to Tampa. I don't see this as something Tampa would be opposed to as they could end up with a better pick. The Canucks could finish 15th, drank rankings, this year and then maybe injury problems and get a lottery pick the next year. 

That’s just not right at all. Look, worst case scenario is we get another lottery pick in a stacked draft then give Tampa a pick that will more than likely be in the 20s in 2021, which in all honesty isn’t the end of the world. The only way this trade ends up being catastrophic, is if next season we get hit with massive injuries, and we don’t have the depth to cover them, and our traded first ends up a top 3-5. 

[Rob_Zepp]

14 hours ago, peaches5 said:

JT Miller stellar play doesn't change the value of the trade

What?!    I trade you $220 for 10 shares of a small start company called "Apple" in 1980 which have split many, many times since - now I have 560 or so shares worth $176,000 as of last Friday.   

 

In your world, the value of that trade hasn't changed?!    Wow.     

 

The word value, here are my thoughts about your interpretation of this word:

 

[Alflives]

3 hours ago, Pears said:

That’s just not right at all. Look, worst case scenario is we get another lottery pick in a stacked draft then give Tampa a pick that will more than likely be in the 20s in 2021, which in all honesty isn’t the end of the world. The only way this trade ends up being catastrophic, is if next season we get hit with massive injuries, and we don’t have the depth to cover them, and our traded first ends up a top 3-5. 

We got Miller for a pick that is most likely going to be 20 or worse.  Dumbass in Toronto gave up his first to dump Marleau, and that first is looking like a lotto pick.  Yet there are some posters and media (eastern bias of both) who feel JB made a mistake, and ?Dumbass is a cap genius.  These people are either Trolling us, or they are complete morons. 

[HomeBrew]

4 hours ago, peaches5 said:

if the 31st pick turns out to be better than the 1st overall it doesn't change the value of the first overall pick or the 31st pick. It was just a very positive outcome for that 31st pick. You can't go back and start making a trade formula for the next 31st pick based off this positive outcome and ignore the possible negative outcomes.

Yes, this is true. But I have no idea why you are stating this, but it actually goes to reinforce what I am saying about how the value of what we are returning to Tampa Bay has yet to be decided because the conclusion of the trade has not happened yet.  

 

You are demonstrating that you have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to risk in this trade or value within it. As it relates to this trade, TJ Miller's play effects the outcome of this trade because his play improves our team, and the improvement in our team means higher placement in the standings. A higher finish in the league means the value of the pick being returned to Tampa Bay is lower (see your previous comment about a 31st having lower value). Thus, if we finish high in the standings and have a good playoff run, we would getting a better return and value in this trade because Benning bet on us winning and won. 

 

*(note: this is all based on hypotheticals of us winning, which we haven't done yet)

[Provost]

1 hour ago, HomeBrew said:

Yes, this is true. But I have no idea why you are stating this, but it actually goes to reinforce what I am saying about how the value of what we are returning to Tampa Bay has yet to be decided because the conclusion of the trade has not happened yet.  

 

You are demonstrating that you have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to risk in this trade or value within it. As it relates to this trade, TJ Miller's play effects the outcome of this trade because his play improves our team, and the improvement in our team means higher placement in the standings. A higher finish in the league means the value of the pick being returned to Tampa Bay is lower (see your previous comment about a 31st having lower value). Thus, if we finish high in the standings and have a good playoff run, we would getting a better return and value in this trade because Benning bet on us winning and won. 

 

*(note: this is all based on hypotheticals of us winning, which we haven't done yet)

Yep, how many people would think that we win the trade if we had traded Petterson or Hughes for Miller.  His play is only half the equation, that elite level of first rounder going Tampa’s way is still on the table.

 

JB has gotten half of the equation right, Miller’s play is exceeding expectations, he is fitting in with the group, and he is having a career year.  None of those things were guaranteed when the trade was made.

 

The other half of the equation is the return, anyone who ignores that isn’t making any sense.  I said right from the beginning we “probably win” this trade if the pick is in the 20’s or later in the round.  We “probably lose” if it ends up being a top 3 lottery pick.  Picks between that are messy and less clear on the outcome of winning or losing.

 

Miller’s fit and play likely means that if we end up finishing with a 12-18th pick, then surrendering that probably still leaves us a winner... not something you could say right when the trade happened.  If that is where we are this year we had better give up that pick.  Everything has gone right for us this year with relative health and lots of players having career years.  The likelihood of that repeating next year isn’t that high, and we are likely to have a worse roster “on paper” due to cap constraints.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Provost

[peaches5]

2 hours ago, HomeBrew said:

Yes, this is true. But I have no idea why you are stating this, but it actually goes to reinforce what I am saying about how the value of what we are returning to Tampa Bay has yet to be decided because the conclusion of the trade has not happened yet.  

 

You are demonstrating that you have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to risk in this trade or value within it. As it relates to this trade, TJ Miller's play effects the outcome of this trade because his play improves our team, and the improvement in our team means higher placement in the standings. A higher finish in the league means the value of the pick being returned to Tampa Bay is lower (see your previous comment about a 31st having lower value). Thus, if we finish high in the standings and have a good playoff run, we would getting a better return and value in this trade because Benning bet on us winning and won. 

 

*(note: this is all based on hypotheticals of us winning, which we haven't done yet)

The value of the trade at the time of the trade does not change over time. If you look back and things didn't go well with the trade it was a fair trade then didn't go in your favour or vice versa. Like I repeatedly said if the conditions surrounding the pick were different the trade would look better because you're protecting that pick better incase it doesn't go well.