Ronaldoescobar Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 This is like the comparison between Kotkaniemi and EP in another thread except that comparison is probably 10x closer than Markstrom vs Bobrovsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 Was just looking back to my summer post and how true it is becoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 7/22/2019 at 11:43 PM, Arrow 1983 said: I think you missed the point I'm talking todays value not past performance. his stats clearly show he is trending down at his age well Markstrom's is trending up So you are using past performance as well... just slicing out a very recent bit of past performance that makes your argument. There is literally no such thing as “not” using last performance, because the last game they played is in the past. There is a thing called sample size and using it to determine a player’s worth is absolutely proper, especially with goalies. The golf courses are littered with goalies who had a great year or two in the league... only a handful manage to be good for long stretches and are consistent. A longer stretch of good play makes it more likely that consistent trend will continue = more money. Marky doesn’t have 5 years of consistently good play so we can’t assume the next 5 years are going to equal his last year of play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poetica Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 (edited) It's always harder than people want to believe, if not impossible, to imagine how a goalie would do with another team in front of him. It would change everything, from the team dynamics to how his goalie coach is telling him to play. It's just not comparable. A still imperfect, but better, comparison is goalies on the same team. To be fair, teams vary from night to night, and especially from season to season, but the fact is that Bobrovsky has yet to outplay any of the recent Cats goalies with more than a handful of starts. Right now his stats are 34GP 33GS 16W 12L 4OT 3.29 GAA .896 SV%. And sadly, he's deserved them. That's worse than either Luo or Reims did last season. Of course, he still has games to play so his stats could improve, but the fact remains that not only is he not earning his money, he's not even an improvement on what they already had. And the Cats went after him specifically because they believed he was the missing piece they needed to go deep into the playoffs. He was supposed to help them win but I don't know that he's stolen a single game this season. He's played well in a few, regardless of his stats, but he's played badly in just as many and mediocre in most. The only reason Bob's wins are as high as they are is that the team is outscoring his mistakes. This seasons the Cats have a 3.62 GF/GP whereas last season they had a 3.22 GF/GP. To be fair, the GA/GP is currently slightly lower at 3.31 GA/GP than last season's 3.33 GA/GP. And, the Cats are not the most defensively sound team and never have been. Sadly, that has not changed this season, which is part of why they wanted a goalie who could make a few more difficult saves. For whatever reason, thus far that just isn't happening with any level of consistency. So how would he do with the Canucks? I have no idea. But having watched the Cats games as well as the Canucks games, I can tell you that I'm very happy we have Marky in net. Edited January 16, 2020 by poetica 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UFCanuck Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Bobrovsky will probably rebound with his third vezina next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 3:59 PM, poetica said: It's always harder than people want to believe, if not impossible, to imagine how a goalie would do with another team in front of him. It would change everything, from the team dynamics to how his goalie coach is telling him to play. It's just not comparable. A still imperfect, but better, comparison is goalies on the same team. To be fair, teams vary from night to night, and especially from season to season, but the fact is that Bobrovsky has yet to outplay any of the recent Cats goalies with more than a handful of starts. Right now his stats are 34GP 33GS 16W 12L 4OT 3.29 GAA .896 SV%. And sadly, he's deserved them. That's worse than either Luo or Reims did last season. Of course, he still has games to play so his stats could improve, but the fact remains that not only is he not earning his money, he's not even an improvement on what they already had. And the Cats went after him specifically because they believed he was the missing piece they needed to go deep into the playoffs. He was supposed to help them win but I don't know that he's stolen a single game this season. He's played well in a few, regardless of his stats, but he's played badly in just as many and mediocre in most. The only reason Bob's wins are as high as they are is that the team is outscoring his mistakes. This seasons the Cats have a 3.62 GF/GP whereas last season they had a 3.22 GF/GP. To be fair, the GA/GP is currently slightly lower at 3.31 GA/GP than last season's 3.33 GA/GP. And, the Cats are not the most defensively sound team and never have been. Sadly, that has not changed this season, which is part of why they wanted a goalie who could make a few more difficult saves. For whatever reason, thus far that just isn't happening with any level of consistency. So how would he do with the Canucks? I have no idea. But having watched the Cats games as well as the Canucks games, I can tell you that I'm very happy we have Marky in net. Just another example and cautionary tale on how fickle this position is. Murray wins two cups with very good but not elite stats and now is fighting for his career with Jarry coming out of nowhere and breathing down his neck. For every Luongo, Cujo, Belfour, Furh, Hasek,Roy etc - poster boys for consistency on more then one team - there are dozens of one hit wonders, or two or three seasons of top hockey followed by mediocrity. Bobrovsky has the chops to bounce back - and have to wonder how our fan base would treat JM if we sign him and he reverts to mediocrity too. Also even some of the best have off years. Belfour did. Florida completely overpaid for the best goalie overall the past five years for sure. Vasilevsky has found his stride finally but didn't have a great start either... if JM can manage a few more years of what he's been doing? Well it isn't elite but is in the realm of very good - or good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 7/23/2019 at 12:09 AM, Arrow 1983 said: No Fleury is a terrible goalie and I fully expect Vegas to miss the playoffs this season. That's right I predicted this to.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 (edited) also mods why are you locking posts when I did not start a new one and actually used the search button. I am following the rules I only ask cause there was no reason given for locking them Edited January 29, 2020 by Arrow 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devron Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Arrow just on a told you so rampage haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, Devron44 said: Arrow just on a told you so rampage haha yes and no it is to show math can predict a lot. Mathematical statistics, are not pull them out of my arse predictions and can get things right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Arrow 1983 said: yes and no it is to show math can predict a lot. Mathematical statistics, are not pull them out of my arse predictions and can get things right Math has nothing to do with Goalie Bob’s down play. Math has nothing to do with Marky’s improved play. Math cannot predict how a goalie will play even the next game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 once a person has enough data it creates a pattern. And that pattern has predictable followers it is like counting cards, once enough cards have been shown you can then make a mathematic deduction as to what card will come next, using this algorithm is basically advance stats simplified. But first a pattern or combination must form, like 2,4,6 logically you could say 8 comes next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Alflives said: Math has nothing to do with Goalie Bob’s down play. Math has nothing to do with Marky’s improved play. Math cannot predict how a goalie will play even the next game. Bob is facing higher percentage shots in Flo then he was in CBJ, which was predictable based on the shot quality faced by Loungo last year. Flo did nothing in the offseason to fix that. Bob stats where and are a clear indication of environment, not skill level. CBJ play far better defensive system then Flo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, Alflives said: Math has nothing to do with Goalie Bob’s down play. Math has nothing to do with Marky’s improved play. Math cannot predict how a goalie will play even the next game. Marky stats clearly indicate that on a far better defensive team his numbers would actually be far better. Marky is out playing our defensive system and at 24 Demko right around where Marky's numbers should be on this team. That makes Demko a legit starter at his age and Marky a top 10 goalie in this league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Alflives said: Math has nothing to do with Goalie Bob’s down play. Math has nothing to do with Marky’s improved play. Math cannot predict how a goalie will play even the next game. Marky's stats also show that he was trending up, and this season stats are stale, years pass the Canucks where far worse defensively and Marky's posted the same stats as this year, this year if he where trending up he should produce better stats then he is currently because the team is playing better defensively then past years, therefore, a stale in stats like this indicates regression and possible decline. Edited January 29, 2020 by Arrow 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said: Marky stats clearly indicate that on a far better defensive team his numbers would actually be far better. Marky is out playing our defensive system and at 24 Demko right around where Marky's numbers should be on this team. That makes Demko a legit starter at his age and Marky a top 10 goalie in this league. I guess my inability to get this math stuff is why I beat up math geeks in junior high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Alflives said: I guess my inability to get this math stuff is why I beat up math geeks in junior high. I do have the advantage with an undergraduate degree in Mathematical statics and a L.L.B. and currently practice contract law. I would try to be friend you before you ever thought to beat me up I'm not your usual math geek. I played university hockey through my undergraduate years I'm a jock and a geek all wrapped in one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 7/22/2019 at 10:42 PM, Arrow 1983 said: Markstrom vs Bobrovsky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Rob_Zepp said: This was actually posted in July. and I didn't even plan on this going where it did it was originally to show that Vegas was predictable, Check my first post today in this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said: I do have the advantage with an undergraduate degree in Mathematical statics and a L.L.B. and currently practice contract law. I would try to be friend you before you ever thought to beat me up I'm not your usual math geek. I played university hockey through my undergraduate years I'm a jock and a geek all wrapped in one I should have wrote, “tried to” beat up math geeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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