Last Change (DIS)Advantage

[Steamer4GM]

Just curious to hear from the more knowledgeable hockey fans here as to why this has played out exactly the opposite as one might expect in this series and anything we could do tonight that we didn't do in games 3 and 4 to take advantage of this.

 

I understand, of course, that it's not all it's cracked up to be or the be all end all of determining who wins a game, but just find it odd that the 'home' team has lost every game of the series thus far.

 

If I were a press member in the bubble, I'd like point this anomaly out to TG and ask him for his take on it and what he or any coach might do differently to take advantage of last change in a game like tonight's game 6 in order to actually capitalize on it and see it translate into a significant advantage on the ice and the scoresheet.

[HKSR]

I think it likely has to do with how closely matched these teams are.  Being the 'road' team means you put your line out first... in a way dictating the game.  The opposing coach ends up reacting with a matchup rather than dictating. 

[-AJ-]

I think the effect of last change is probably overrated. In the end, I think there are many factors, generally the effectiveness of the players that night, that weigh far more heavily than a last change advantage or disadvantage.

[peaches5]

We have 4 centres that can win draws. If you have possession off the face/off the line matching doesn't mean much.

[Master Higgins]

To be fair our top line had more chances 5v5 with last change. But our pp dried up too in those games. Small sample sizes arent great

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

I think possibly part of what’s happened is that, while Pettersson’s line struggled to score at 5v5 under the hard marchup against ROR’s line, what might have gone unnoticed is that Petey’s Line also effectively shutdown ROR, basically creating a stalemate at 5v5 between the biggest scoring threats on both teams.

 

When that hard match went away, in games 3 and 4, Pettersson’s line got a lot more looks at 5v5, but ROR also started to take over the games.

 

ROR has 7 points this series. 5 of them came when the Canucks had last change.

[timberz21]

IMO line matching is overrated.  You can't shelter your top line or top players consistently.  I feel like coaches actually hurt their team/momentum by trying to match too hard.  Out-think themselve I believe.  At one point, the players needs to be able work through a tough matchup and find a way to be effective.

 

In key or specific situation, line matching is useful and important.  But overall, you need to go with the flow.

 

I think the line switch Green made is a good start to break that streak.  Now, if St-Louis seems to adjust to the new line...Green has the option to go back to his original and make them adjust again.

[Goal:thecup]

1 hour ago, Steamer4GM said:

Just curious to hear from the more knowledgeable hockey fans here as to why this has played out exactly the opposite as one might expect in this series and anything we could do tonight that we didn't do in games 3 and 4 to take advantage of this.

 

I understand, of course, that it's not all it's cracked up to be or the be all end all of determining who wins a game, but just find it odd that the 'home' team has lost every game of the series thus far.

 

If I were a press member in the bubble, I'd like point this anomaly out to TG and ask him for his take on it and what he or any coach might do differently to take advantage of last change in a game like tonight's game 6 in order to actually capitalize on it and see it translate into a significant advantage on the ice and the scoresheet.

 

First off, home ice is an advantage, but it is only one factor among the very many that translate into results by the end of the game.

 

Next, go ahead and ask any coach what they might do differently to take advantage of last change, but you will probably not get a completely truthful nor insightful answer during the playoffs.

 

Lastly, home ice advantage is proven every time the odds-makers put up their numbers for sports betting; given that all other factors between 2 hockey teams are equal, bookies will give a full point (a goal) if you take the visitors.  These guys put their jobs on the line every day and they do not lose money (in the long run). 

 

As previously stated, our series with Saint Losers is too small a sample size to prove out the statistical rationale.  Deep analysis may provide some answers to why it is going the opposite direction of expectations, but "Ain't Nobody Got Time For That".  It's game day.  Party on.  No time for math.

[goalie13]

This series is just an anomaly.  Historically speaking, the home team does hold an advantage.

 

 

Source:  https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi

[Steamer4GM]

7 minutes ago, goalie13 said:

This series is just an anomaly.  Historically speaking, the home team does hold an advantage.

 

 

Source:  https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi

Fair enough but how much of that is last change and how much is all the other stuff like fans, familiar ice, facilities etc?

[-AJ-]

7 minutes ago, goalie13 said:

This series is just an anomaly.  Historically speaking, the home team does hold an advantage.

 

 

Source:  https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi

I would argue it has to do with familiarity, lack of travel, and fan support more than last change though. 

[Steamer4GM]

Some great responses. Helps me clarify my original question.

 

How can a coach or team best strategize to capitalize on the advantage(s) afforded by last change?

[Junkyard Dog]

1 minute ago, Steamer4GM said:

Some great responses. Helps me clarify my original question.

 

How can a coach or team best strategize to capitalize on the advantage(s) afforded by last change?

Taking advantage of icing calls. Balance the scoring/depth through the top 9, etc. Hope your goalie steals games.

 

Do what you can to disrupt the match up game the home team is trying to play.

[goalie13]

3 minutes ago, Steamer4GM said:

Fair enough but how much of that is last change and how much is all the other stuff like fans, familiar ice, facilities etc?

I'm just thinking this through. 

 

If you just look at this round of these Covid playoffs:

 

VGK vs CHI - Home team won 4 out of 5 games

COL vs ARZ - 4 out of 5

DAL vs CGY - 3 out of 6

STL vs VAN - 0 out of 5 (until tonight)

PHI vs MTL - 1 out of 5

TBL vs CBJ - 2 out of 5

NYI vs WSH - 1 out of 5

BOS vs CAR - 2 out of 5

 

So out of 41 games this round, the home team has won 17 times, or 38%.  In many of those examples though, the losing team only won one game.

 

I'm starting to think that last change really isn't that big of a factor.  Shifts are so short.  I wonder how many changes are on the fly versus how many happen at a face-off?

[elvis15]

7 hours ago, goalie13 said:

I'm just thinking this through. 

 

If you just look at this round of these Covid playoffs:

 

VGK vs CHI - Home team won 4 out of 5 games

COL vs ARZ - 4 out of 5

DAL vs CGY - 3 out of 6

STL vs VAN - 0 out of 5 (until tonight)

PHI vs MTL - 1 out of 5

TBL vs CBJ - 2 out of 5

NYI vs WSH - 1 out of 5

BOS vs CAR - 2 out of 5

 

So out of 41 games this round, the home team has won 17 times, or 38%.  In many of those examples though, the losing team only won one game.

 

I'm starting to think that last change really isn't that big of a factor.  Shifts are so short.  I wonder how many changes are on the fly versus how many happen at a face-off?

And that's a fair point that you can try and get your matchups on the fly (or if you don't get your match up on a faceoff, you can swap out during play sometimes). Certainly you can gain an advantage if you have the match up you want and can win the faceoff in a situation like an offensive zone start.

 

That's a lot of series only going to 5 games though. That'll skew things (small sample size with this different playoffs as well) for this question, but it does point to the weight of your home arena, fans, and all that comes with that. These neutral ground games have been a bit of a change.