Coronavirus outbreak

[Nathancanuck]

8 minutes ago, The Lock said:

There's a number of problems with this chart to be used for Covid:

1) All deaths would include natural causes, car crashes, etc. This isn't just diseases. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

2) It states just through November to May. So any covid death in June, July, August, etc is not included and the months of November to March did not have Covid, so that's 2 months out of 7 of Covid. Not a good statistic to work with when all of the other causes of death have a 5 month head start.

3) The bottom says it's adjusting for number of deaths due to population growth. I'd like to know their steps in this as it can greatly affect the outcome of the chart depending on what they did.

1) Yes exactly thats what is interesting. Should we not see a clear spike in the corona year?

2) Yes because it was the flu season and also almost no one died since June (of the 5878 dead only about 1000 was after may)

you can count the daily new deads together (I haven't but its about 1000   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

3) I don't think their population changed thaaat much but I think adjusted means that this should be the better/clearer statistic

I don't know if it would affect this statistic to be honest but I don't think so

[The Lock]

8 minutes ago, Nathancanuck said:

1) Yes exactly thats what is interesting. Should we not see a clear spike in the corona year?

2) Yes because it was the flu season and also almost no one died since June (of the 5878 dead only about 1000 was after may)

you can count the daily new deads together (I haven't but its about 1000   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

3) I don't think their population changed thaaat much but I think adjusted means that this should be the better/clearer statistic

I don't know if it would affect this statistic to be honest but I don't think so

1) No. We wouldn't. If we did even Sweden would be in lockdown as the death rate would probably be something like 50%... or everyone would just expect to see half the people they know just die in like a year. Think of the black death...

2) Corona's (so far) has been clearly a different season than what they're using for flu season. Plus, like I said, 5 months of deaths tallied up before corona on that graph doesn't really help in providing any clarity whatsoever.

3) A better/clearer statistic in what way though? It's one thing to make a graph, but graphs are all about how you are using them too. In this case, I don't know if "adjusting" really helps the case other than to create more questions, but that's my opinion.

Edited September 25, 2020 by The Lock

[Nathancanuck]

3 minutes ago, The Lock said:

Like I said, you're entitled to your opinion. I do however think you need to think about things a little further if you want to provide a more convincing argument. This should be about learning in the end. It's not about "I'm right you're wrong". Maybe I'm wrong in the end. Maybe you're wrong in the end. Maybe neither of us are right. We should never be afraid of any of those outcomes.

 

And I'm sorry to hear you lost your job due to corona. That has to suck.  It does explain a bit why you're passionate about all of this, just don't let your heart get the best of your brain and never be afraid to ask yourself if your arguing using your brain or your heart.  I just hope you see that I can be convinced, but if I don't see enough evidence or I think something doesn't really help in providing a solid case, that's just not going to convince me.

What you see in others is what you should look for in yourself

 

Try to understand what im trying to explain with the tests too. Once you understand that it is kind of a mind blower.

Try to find something on youtube maybe, there a re people explaining it better than me. I only got a scource in german

for the mathematical explanation.

 

I also want to say that i have always brought arguments and explained things and provided a source.

You guys gotta start giving me more credibility.

 

And I never asked you anything. You never proved anything. All the fear. All the worst case scenarios.. all based

on some simulations in a computer with data that is completely unrealistic. Is there any EVIDENCE that

hundreds of thousands would die? No there isn't. Anyone feel free of course to show me some

[Nathancanuck]

8 minutes ago, The Lock said:

1) No. We wouldn't. If we did even Sweden would be in lockdown as the death rate would probably be something like 50%... or everyone would just expect to see half the people they know just die in like a year. Think of the black death...

2) Corona's (so far) has been clearly a different season than what they're using for flu season. Plus, like I said, 5 months of deaths tallied up before corona on that graph doesn't really help in providing any clarity whatsoever.

3) A better/clearer statistic in what way though? It's one thing to make a graph, but graphs are all about how you are using them too. In this case, I don't know if "adjusting" really helps the case other than to create more questions, but that's my opinion.

Ok you get a better statistic man :D

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

scroll down, this is excess mortality in europe. basically exactly what you were asking for

you can also see it for the other european countries.

And compare it to Spain,Italy,France,England who did a lockdown Sweden still better

[The Lock]

6 minutes ago, Nathancanuck said:

What you see in others is what you should look for in yourself

 

Try to understand what im trying to explain with the tests too. Once you understand that it is kind of a mind blower.

Try to find something on youtube maybe, there a re people explaining it better than me. I only got a scource in german

for the mathematical explanation.

 

I also want to say that i have always brought arguments and explained things and provided a source.

You guys gotta start giving me more credibility.

 

And I never asked you anything. You never proved anything. All the fear. All the worst case scenarios.. all based

on some simulations in a computer with data that is completely unrealistic. Is there any EVIDENCE that

hundreds of thousands would die? No there isn't. Anyone feel free of course to show me some

I am all about learning when I'm in a debate. If someone has a good argument I'll evaluate it. You had a lot of pieces, but they didn't really connect a lot of dots in my opinion. Like there's quite a bit you mentioned where I'm like "What does this even have to do with it all? Why did he suddenly go in this other direction?" I'm giving you honest feedback. You at least provided a good link in the per capita and I thank you for that, but the other stuff I felt it needed more. Like I said, honest feedback.

[The Lock]

7 minutes ago, Nathancanuck said:

Ok you get a better statistic man :D

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

scroll down, this is excess mortality in europe. basically exactly what you were asking for

you can also see it for the other european countries.

And compare it to Spain,Italy,France,England who did a lockdown Sweden still better

Question since I know you're in Europe: did Norway and Finland lock down? Because, looking at all of this data, whatever they did worked extremely well. Better than any of the countries you mentioned, including Sweden.

 

Seriously, those 2 countries seem to blow everyone out of the water in terms of response to all of this.

Edited September 25, 2020 by The Lock

[Nathancanuck]

1 minute ago, The Lock said:

I am all about learning when I'm in a debate. If someone has a good argument I'll evaluate it. You had a lot of pieces, but they didn't really connect a lot of dots in my opinion. Like there's quite a bit you mentioned where I'm like "What does this even have to do with it all? Why did he suddenly go in this other direction?" I'm giving you honest feedback. You at least provided a good link in the per capita and I thank you for that, but the other stuff I felt it needed more. Like I said, honest feedback.

Its not a bad feedback. As I said things are tricky sometimes.

Maybe try to focus on one thing first. Like the test, once you understand fully what it means i'm convinced the rest of it will be easier to see for you.

 

Let me ask you 1 question please before i go to bed:

What do you think would happen if we have no more restrictions at all from now on? How many people would die from/with corona in Canada?

 

[Nathancanuck]

4 minutes ago, The Lock said:

Question since I know you're in Europe: did Norway and Finland lock down? Because, looking at all of this data, whatever they did worked extremely well. Better than any of the countries you mentioned, including Sweden.

 

Seriously, those 2 countries seem to blow everyone out of the water in terms of response to all of this.

Yes I don't know how long or strict the Lockdown was but they had one. In Europe only Sweden and Belarus didn't do

a Lockdown. But Belarus data can not be trusted/not lot of data available anyway but the only news we get about Belarus

is that they are demonstrating since weeks against President Lukaschenko so apparently they have other problems than corona..

And assuming Sweden has herd immunity I would also assume Belarus has it (they even held the Soviet holiday with over 2 million

people which is a fifth of the population without masks to celebrate the victory/end of world war 2 in may)

[The Lock]

9 minutes ago, Nathancanuck said:

Its not a bad feedback. As I said things are tricky sometimes.

Maybe try to focus on one thing first. Like the test, once you understand fully what it means i'm convinced the rest of it will be easier to see for you.

 

Let me ask you 1 question please before i go to bed:

What do you think would happen if we have no more restrictions at all from now on? How many people would die from/with corona in Canada?

First of all, I come from Northern BC, which has had I think a total of around 278 cases since March. We had about 69 cases before some of the restrictions were removed and they have gone up quite a bit since. People started letting their guard down and things started to escalate.

 

In terms of how many would die: the death rate in Canada's around 6.7% from Corona. Given how infectious the disease is, I honestly think at least half the population could be infected by the end of this without restrictions, which would put deaths close to 1 million people. Keep in mind this would also be due to the health care system getting overloaded. We've done extremely well in Canada so far with having just shy of 10,000 deaths.

Edited September 25, 2020 by The Lock

[The Lock]

Just to add to what I said above (I hate editing posts after the fact, I get so many typos). I don't truly think we'd reach 1 million deaths with no restrictions as hopefully we'd have a vaccine before then, but if we were to have no social distancing, no masks, or anything, I do think people would be surprised at the end total and not in a good way.

Edited September 25, 2020 by The Lock

[skategal]

6 minutes ago, The Lock said:

First of all, I come from Northern BC, which has had I think a total of around 278 cases since March. We had about 69 cases before some of the restrictions were removed and they have gone up quite a bit since. People started letting their guard down and things started to escalate.

 

In terms of how many would die: the death rate in Canada's around 6.7% from Corona. Given how infectious the disease is, I honestly think at least half the population could be infected by the end of this without restrictions, which would put deaths close to 1 million people. Keep in mind this would also be due to the health care system getting overloaded. We've done extremely well in Canada so far with having just shy of 10,000 deaths.

I wonder if the death rate will trend downward keeping in mind that at the beginning many of those that passed away were in care homes and if nothing else the governments and managing organizations have learned a great deal about how to protect the most vulnerable.  Right now the age group with the highest infection rates are trending younger, so the death rate in that segment will likely be significantly lower.  Not saying anything about potential long term effects as I'm not sure we know enough yet, but likely not as many deaths per capita.  

[The Lock]

Just now, skategal said:

I wonder if the death rate will trend downward keeping in mind that at the beginning many of those that passed away were in care homes and if nothing else the governments and managing organizations have learned a great deal about how to protect the most vulnerable.  Right now the age group with the highest infection rates are trending younger, so the death rate in that segment will likely be significantly lower.  Not saying anything about potential long term effects as I'm not sure we know enough yet, but likely not as many deaths per capita.  

Yeah, I mean see my next post after the fact. There's other factors to consider obviously. I'm kind of more thinking if there everyone just stopped caring altogether which clearly wouldn't be reality. lol

[AV's Coin]

retract

Edited September 25, 2020 by AV's Coin

[The Lock]

Anyway, bedtime for me too. Stay safe everyone.

[kingofsurrey]

1 minute ago, The Lock said:

Anyway, bedtime for me too. Stay safe everyone.

Appreciated reading your well thought out views on Covid. Thanks.

[kingofsurrey]

 

Salim Jiwa

 

@realreporter

· 7h

#bcpoli Despite the dishonesty of Vancouver Coastal Health and refusal to to make public school exposures we have 41 schools and 1 board office reporting infections. Live list. https://vancouverite.com/list-of-bc-schools-reporting-covid-19-infections/

[JM_]

1 minute ago, kingofsurrey said:

 

Salim Jiwa

 

@realreporter

· 7h

#bcpoli Despite the dishonesty of Vancouver Coastal Health and refusal to to make public school exposures we have 41 schools and 1 board office reporting infections. Live list. https://vancouverite.com/list-of-bc-schools-reporting-covid-19-infections/

People making their own lists. Thats gotta be good. 

[kingofsurrey]

2 minutes ago, Robert Long said:

People making their own lists. Thats gotta be good. 

Required when our own NDP government fails its own citizens...

Transparency by our gov. would eliminate social media  rumors...  

Edited September 25, 2020 by kingofsurrey

[kingofsurrey]

This is how it happens in some other  places...

 

A football-loving mom watching a middle-school game in Ohio was Tasered and arrested Wednesday for not wearing a mask.

The unmasked woman, identified as Alecia Kitts of Marietta, and her mother were watching a football game in the city of Logan when she got into a verbal altercation with a local cop about violating the state mandate over face coverings, according to the New York Post.

 

https://theprovince.com/news/world/mom-watching-kids-football-game-tasered-arrested-for-not-wearing-mask

[JM_]

1 minute ago, kingofsurrey said:

Required when our own NDP government fails its own citizens...

this is just going to lead to more panic. The "reporter" here should be ashamed of themselves for driving fear. Follow the guidelines, or if thats too scary homeschool.