(Proposal) Contending Next Offseason

[Canuck Surfer]

3 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Not too much but watched a lot.   COVID really took an interesting twist with what I was up to and led me into a venture that was consuming but really fun and waayyy more rewarding than I thought when entering it.    Felt guilty about the ability to thrive both intellectually and financially while so many were hurting (and continue to) with the measures to combat this pandemic.

 

I did watch a lot of AHL last year with the Comets one of a few teams.    Gady is a bit too slow still and seems to have lost a lot of confidence.    Lind is a player and looks like an NHL player.   Jasek is a long-shot as he is good at pretty much everything but outstanding at nothing.   Bailey, who you didn't ask about, is a freak of nature for how well he skates and he has a heavy shot and is a beast of a man - but something isn't right about him.   I could see him getting 30 goals in the NHL or getting zip.    Something needs to click and I really think it is all mental.   He has more tools than many who are stars in the league.

Glad your time was productive.  Thanks for the answer!

[wildcam]

Sorry not going to trade Juolevi, Gaudette and 1st rounder  ----- Arvidsson....NEVER NEVER Crazy

 

We have Hoglander and Podkolzing ready and are on level entry contracts...Juolevi 22  future #3 D man --- Gaudette 24  #2 or #3 Centre/ winger and ( 1st rounder could be a future star...

Arvidsson 27 -- Not a good trade for Vancouver....

Edited January 7, 2021 by wildcam

[Azzy]

All this talk about whether Arvidsson is worth that package, and none about the pie-in-the-sky bridge deals for Pettersson and Hughes? Neither go for under $7m, even on a bridge deal for 1 year.

[Patel Bure]

21 hours ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

This is a lengthy post, just letting you know 

 

The 2021 Season

• The Canucks finish somewhere in the middle of the Canadian division. They either make the Playoffs or barely miss in a crazy tight race, but the year is regarded as a solid one. Not great, but not horrible. 
• Trade deadline is quiet since players have to quarantine and such; no significant moves made by the Canucks. 
• After taking the entire season off, Ferland is ready to return. 
• Green signs an extension either during the year or when the year is over. 

 

RFA

Pettersson - 3 years, 6.75M per

Hughes - 3 years, 6M per

Demko - 3 years, 3M per

Tryamkin: 1 year, 1.25M

Rafferty - 2 years, 800,000 per

 

I've warmed up to the idea of giving Pettersson and Hughes bridge deals. Originally, I wanted to sign them both long term immediately, but with the flat cap we wouldn't be able to take advantage of the term. When the cap begins to rise, we can lock them up for 6-8 years and still build around them. Demko's contract is based on young goalie comparables, mainly Blackwood. Tryamkin is brought over from the KHL and Rafferty is brought  back as a 7th/8th defenseman. All of Brisebois, Chatfield, Lind and Michaelis should also be brought back on cheap deals for depth. 

 

Expansion Draft

The Canucks protection list reads as follows:

 

Forwards: Boeser, Horvat, Miller, Pettersson, Virtanen, Gaudette and MacEwan

Defense: Schmidt, Juolevi, Rafferty

Goalie: Demko

 

Exposed: Roussel, Beagle, Ferland, Motte, Lind, Eriksson, Myers, Holtby. 

 

Protection list is relatively straightforward. It was a tough choice to protect MacEwan over Motte, but I went with the younger and cheaper asset. Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson all meet the Expansion requirements, so the Canucks will definitely meet the criteria of exposing two eligible forwards. On defense, the only two players that meet the requirements are Schmidt and Myers, and one of them must be exposed. That's a pretty easy decision. Since Edler and Hamonic will be UFAs and Hughes is ineligible, we can protect our two young defensemen. Goalies is an easy decision as well.

 

Seattle ends up taking Roussel from the Canucks. He takes the Reaves role of establishing a culture for the new team. Plus he's on an expiring deal so they can move him if they want. 

 

Trades

 

To OTT:

Eriksson

2nd 2021 

Karlsson

 

To VAN:

Future considerations

 

Ottawa can be any team that is willing to take one year of Eriksson. His salary will be lower than his cap hit, so hopefully a team below the cap floor will be interested. Karlsson can also be changed with most of our other prospects. If this doesn't get it done, I would add a mid round pick as well. This trade obviously frees up an extra 6M in cap space for the Canucks in the offseason. 

 

To NSH:

Gaudette

Juolevi 

1st 2022 (top-10 protected)

 

To VAN:

Arvidsson

 

This is clearly an aggressive move. Finding wingers for Horvat has been a problem for a long time and this gets him one. This trade is made assuming Nashville underperforms and commits to a re-tool or rebuild. For Nashville, they get two young players and a 1st to kick start their plan. They were rumoured to be very interested in Gaudette back when they were trying to move Subban, so he is a piece that would likely entice them. Juolevi would provide insurance for them on the back end in case they lose Ekholm to the Expansion draft or Free Agency. He and Fabbro would be the young pieces on their blue line behind their vets Josi and Ellis. The Canucks get a scoring RW on a great contract. Arvidsson would have 3 years left at 4.25M at the time of this deal, which is great for a 30 goal scorer. He would fit in well with the high energy style the forwards play with and could play with either Pettersson or Horvat effectively. 

 

Free Agency

Larsson - 3 years, 5M per

Stepan - 2 years, 2.5M per

Benn - 1 year, 900,000

 

Larsson steps in and fills our constant need for a top-4 RHD. He can partner with Hughes and take the Tanev role effectively. The contract must be three years or less though since Hughes will need a contract at that time, so the money will be relocated to him. Stepan can step in and be our veteran 3C. He's right handed, which is perfect for our group. He'll likely be looking for a bounceback year and has been declining for the last couple of years, but he's still effective at the right price and has Playoff experience from his run to the Finals with the Rangers. Any other depth free agent signings such as a third string goalie would obviously occur as well. Benn returns for depth and any other small signings would obviously occur as well. 

 

Lineup

 

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser

Podkolzin - Horvat - Arvidsson

Hoglander - Stepan - Virtanen

Motte - Beagle - MacEwan

 

Hughes - Larsson

Schmidt - Myers

Rathbone - Tryamkin

 

Demko

Holltby

 

Ferland 

Rafferty

Benn

 

Cap Space: 1.5M

 

Powerplay 1:

Miller - Horvat - Pettersson 

Boeser - Hughes

 

Powerplay 2:

Arvidsson - Stepan - Podkolzin

Hoglander - Schmidt

 

Penalty Kill 1:

Beagle - Motte

Schmidt - Larsson

 

Penalty Kill 2:

Stepan - Podkolzin

Tryamkin - Myers

 

The forward core is very talented and very deep. The top line will have another year of chemistry and growth. The second and line is Horvat with good wingers, which is an upgrade on what we have currently. The third line brings in Hoglander, who should be able to provide energy and offense in his second year with a veteran and Virtanen. I would call that an upgrade as well. The fourth line is essentially the same, with our defensive specialists. Our defense is almost the same as this year, with Larsson stepping into the Hamonic spot. The top 4 is locked in. Rathbone replaces Juolevi and Tryamkin replaces Benn, both of which could be upgrades but possibly not. Goalies are the same. Ideally I would like to move Ferland and bring in another defenseman for the bottom pair, but I don't think moving Ferland will be moveable. 

 

I think this team is closer to contending than we are currently, mainly due to the depth up front and the expected growth of our young players. Podkolzin and Hoglander are two big boosts up front and really help out the middle-6. Our top-9 would be one of the best in the league if they both can fill their spots effectively. Every line as two solid bodies physically. Our defense isn't great, but we can ride our top-4. Rathbone will be a rookie, so I wouldn't expect him to be a contributor yet. This team would also have over 25M in cap space for the following offseason. The notable contracts that would expire would be Boeser, Virtanen and Holtby so it should be a relatively low stress summer cap wise. 

Very well thought out post but I think Hughes and Petey will get paid a LOT more than that even if they end up accepting bridge deals (unlikely by the way.).    
 

I might be wrong here but I think players will start receiving pre-Covid contracts in the next off season as the world slowly starts to return to normalcy.  

[Noble 6]

3 hours ago, Azzy said:

All this talk about whether Arvidsson is worth that package, and none about the pie-in-the-sky bridge deals for Pettersson and Hughes? Neither go for under $7m, even on a bridge deal for 1 year.

 

32 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

Very well thought out post but I think Hughes and Petey will get paid a LOT more than that even if they end up accepting bridge deals (unlikely by the way.).    
 

I might be wrong here but I think players will start receiving pre-Covid contracts in the next off season as the world slowly starts to return to normalcy.  

 

Pettersson's deal is the same as Point's deal. Point was coming off a 41 goal, 92 point season when he signed that deal. That's good for 0.52 goals per game and 1.16 points per game. Pettersson has not come close to either of those marks yet in his career; he would need 65+ points this year given the shortened schedule to match Point's point production and 30+ goals to match his goal production (assuming he plays every game). I don't think it's impossible for him to reach those marks, but it's impossible to know whether he did or didn't right now. Plus, Point remained healthier over his first two seasons than Pettersson, playing in an extra 11 games. You pay for durability as well. 

 

For Hughes, the best comparable is probably Chabot, but he signed a long term deal. For a bridge deal, I looked at Werenski. In his second year in the NHL, Werenski set the franchise record for defenseman goals while playing in less than 82 games (a record that he broke again last year in even less games played). He scored at 0.54 pointer per game in his third year after setting that record and having a great rookie season. Hughes in his one season so far scored at a 0.78 points per game rate, which is considerably higher while also setting multiple franchise records. As such, I paid him considerably more than Werenski for the same term. We'll have to see how well Hughes does this year because he only has one year of work to draw from. 

[Azzy]

4 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

Pettersson's deal is the same as Point's deal. Point was coming off a 41 goal, 92 point season when he signed that deal. That's good for 0.52 goals per game and 1.16 points per game. Pettersson has not come close to either of those marks yet in his career; he would need 65+ points this year given the shortened schedule to match Point's point production and 30+ goals to match his goal production (assuming he plays every game). I don't think it's impossible for him to reach those marks, but it's impossible to know whether he did or didn't right now. Plus, Point remained healthier over his first two seasons than Pettersson, playing in an extra 11 games. You pay for durability as well. 

 

For Hughes, the best comparable is probably Chabot, but he signed a long term deal. For a bridge deal, I looked at Werenski. In his second year in the NHL, Werenski set the franchise record for defenseman goals while playing in less than 82 games (a record that he broke again last year in even less games played). He scored at 0.54 pointer per game in his third year after setting that record and having a great rookie season. Hughes in his one season so far scored at a 0.78 points per game rate, which is considerably higher while also setting multiple franchise records. As such, I paid him considerably more than Werenski for the same term. We'll have to see how well Hughes does this year because he only has one year of work to draw from. 

Point plays in a tax-free state, meaning that he gets the full amount. Pettersson is more vital to his team and has to pay BC taxes, so will require more than Point to extend. If Pettersson's agent lets his client sign for that, he's in the wrong business.

 

Hughes is already a record-holder for this franchise, and knows full-well his value because every time he blinks Canucks nation swoons. Werenski is also not the most important player in his position on his team (Seth Jones takes that honor - Hughes and Pettersson can both have Benning over a barrel if they want to, so it will all come down to how persuasive Benning can be in getting 'home-town' discounts from the two. But even allowing for that scenario, there is no way either come in under $7m.

[Noble 6]

9 minutes ago, Azzy said:

Point plays in a tax-free state, meaning that he gets the full amount. Pettersson is more vital to his team and has to pay BC taxes, so will require more than Point to extend. If Pettersson's agent lets his client sign for that, he's in the wrong business.

 

Hughes is already a record-holder for this franchise, and knows full-well his value because every time he blinks Canucks nation swoons. Werenski is also not the most important player in his position on his team (Seth Jones takes that honor - Hughes and Pettersson can both have Benning over a barrel if they want to, so it will all come down to how persuasive Benning can be in getting 'home-town' discounts from the two. But even allowing for that scenario, there is no way either come in under $7m.

 

The tax free state is great for Point, but it shouldn't affect Pettersson's contract. That's just a nice bonus for Point. Plus, Pettersson is not in as strong of a negotiating position as Point for the reasons I outlined above (unless he explodes this year, which is certainly possible). 

 

The fan's perception of Hughes won't get him extra money on his deal. Boeser was our rookie sensation, prince charming, "the Flow," etc. and clearly our best RW. He got paid less than Eriksson. The only things that matter are the comparables that will be referred to when negotiating the deal and the evidence the player has provided. Paying players based on fan perceptions and/or external motives is how you end up like Toronto (keeping the big 4 no matter what).

[Azzy]

48 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

The tax free state is great for Point, but it shouldn't affect Pettersson's contract. That's just a nice bonus for Point. Plus, Pettersson is not in as strong of a negotiating position as Point for the reasons I outlined above (unless he explodes this year, which is certainly possible). 

 

The fan's perception of Hughes won't get him extra money on his deal. Boeser was our rookie sensation, prince charming, "the Flow," etc. and clearly our best RW. He got paid less than Eriksson. The only things that matter are the comparables that will be referred to when negotiating the deal and the evidence the player has provided. Paying players based on fan perceptions and/or external motives is how you end up like Toronto (keeping the big 4 no matter what).

Point signed for less than his market worth because he wanted to win. He's now done that and the way the Lightning are built, he could continue to do so for quite a while to come. Everyone and his dog knows that without Tampa's financial advantage, Point's contract come up much higher (I think I read that Vancouver's taxation equates to about 8% more than Florida?)

 

Point was not, and remains not, the best forward on his team. Pettersson is above and beyond our most important forward and that alone will see his deal come in higher than Point's.

 

Same for Hughes. Werenski was not, and remains not, the best defenseman on his team. Hughes is above and beyond our most important defenseman and that alone will see his deal come in higher than Werenski's.

 

Boeser's deal was lower than some predicted, but also fair value when considering his production, inconsistency and injury proneness; neither Petterrson nor Hughes have such worries and they both deserve to - and will - come in significantly higher than Boeser's deal.

[Noble 6]

19 minutes ago, Azzy said:

Point signed for less than his market worth because he wanted to win. He's now done that and the way the Lightning are built, he could continue to do so for quite a while to come. Everyone and his dog knows that without Tampa's financial advantage, Point's contract come up much higher (I think I read that Vancouver's taxation equates to about 8% more than Florida?)

 

Point was not, and remains not, the best forward on his team. Pettersson is above and beyond our most important forward and that alone will see his deal come in higher than Point's.

 

Same for Hughes. Werenski was not, and remains not, the best defenseman on his team. Hughes is above and beyond our most important defenseman and that alone will see his deal come in higher than Werenski's.

 

Boeser's deal was lower than some predicted, but also fair value when considering his production, inconsistency and injury proneness; neither Petterrson nor Hughes have such worries and they both deserve to - and will - come in significantly higher than Boeser's deal.

 

I don't think Point signed for less, I think he chose a bridge deal instead of a long term deal. Kucherov did the same but they happened to win after he got his big extension. Trying to equal off the salary between Tampa Bay and a Canadian city is how you sign Marner for 2.5M more than Kucherov. Toronto is the only team that has done this. Craig Button talked about how every city has advantages and disadvantages when trying to sign players. For example, playing in Toronto or any other Canadian city there are increased branding and advertising opportunities that wouldn't be available in other markets (think of Pettersson and Hughes in those car commercials). Some places offer a spotlight, others offer seclusion. There's more to it than just tax breaks. If that's all it was, then why did Bobrovsky require that monster contract in Florida? He takes home more money than the only goalie to win the Hart in recent memory. 

 

Dubois is the best center on his team and just signed a bridge deal for 5M because that's where the comparables and body of work that he produced put him. He didn't automatically get more because he's the best forward on the team. He's not in the top-5 highest paid forwards on his team if you include Dubinsky despite being better and more valuable than any of the players ahead of him. You keep saying that Pettersson and Hughes are the best players on the team at their positions and they will be paid more as a result, but that doesn't guarantee anything. Especially not on a bridge deal. If/when they're ready to sign long term, it will be a different story. 

 

Just for the record, I would say that Point is the best forward on the Lightning. 

[IBatch]

In this scenario Myers likely gets picked up.  No way they take one year of Roussel that’s a waste of a pick.   They won’t have more blue chip value available from many teams then him. 
 

LEs cost is still going to be a first.  Market is tougher then it was with Marleau .... and he was a better player going the other way.  
 

OJ could work out fine for us.   We need an Edler replacement and he’s going to get a shot to show they he can fill the void.   Stepan ... no thanks.   Benn no thanks unless it’s just one more year so we don’t have to expose Myers.   
 

We need OJ, we need AG - at least to find out what we truly have.    Rathbone is around QHs size and can’t see us winning by letting OJ go and hoping he does his best Stecher impression on the left side.   Agree Horvat needs a quality winger...we might have that already in JV or Podz or Hoglander, maybe even Lind.

 

Big Mack doesn’t play like Motte....Motte’s playoff performance was one of the best things for us last season - need more time to evaluate that. 
 

A lot of supposition and assumptions.  Who knows exactly how things will go, but this doesn’t look like a contending team... 

[Azzy]

27 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

On 1/7/2021 at 7:19 PM, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

I don't think Point signed for less, I think he chose a bridge deal instead of a long term deal. Kucherov did the same but they happened to win after he got his big extension. Trying to equal off the salary between Tampa Bay and a Canadian city is how you sign Marner for 2.5M more than Kucherov. Toronto is the only team that has done this. Craig Button talked about how every city has advantages and disadvantages when trying to sign players. For example, playing in Toronto or any other Canadian city there are increased branding and advertising opportunities that wouldn't be available in other markets (think of Pettersson and Hughes in those car commercials). Some places offer a spotlight, others offer seclusion. There's more to it than just tax breaks. If that's all it was, then why did Bobrovsky require that monster contract in Florida? He takes home more money than the only goalie to win the Hart in recent memory. 

 

Dubois is the best center on his team and just signed a bridge deal for 5M because that's where the comparables and body of work that he produced put him. He didn't automatically get more because he's the best forward on the team. He's not in the top-5 highest paid forwards on his team if you include Dubinsky despite being better and more valuable than any of the players ahead of him. You keep saying that Pettersson and Hughes are the best players on the team at their positions and they will be paid more as a result, but that doesn't guarantee anything. Especially not on a bridge deal. If/when they're ready to sign long term, it will be a different story. 

 

Just for the record, I would say that Point is the best forward on the Lightning. 

As I was saying. Meanwhile, both Stamkos and Kucherov remain more important than Point to the Lightning.

[Noble 6]

11 hours ago, Azzy said:

 

As I was saying. Meanwhile, both Stamkos and Kucherov remain more important than Point to the Lightning.

 

Fair enough, Barzal got a bit more than I thought he would for 3 years. The one advantage that he has over Pettersson is that he has been more durable, but otherwise Pettersson has outscored him almost everywhere else. 

[Odjick the Warrior]

On 1/6/2021 at 10:36 AM, Horvat is a Boss said:

This is a lengthy post, just letting you know 

 

The 2021 Season

• The Canucks finish somewhere in the middle of the Canadian division. They either make the Playoffs or barely miss in a crazy tight race, but the year is regarded as a solid one. Not great, but not horrible. 
• Trade deadline is quiet since players have to quarantine and such; no significant moves made by the Canucks. 
• After taking the entire season off, Ferland is ready to return. 
• Green signs an extension either during the year or when the year is over. 

 

RFA

Pettersson - 3 years, 6.75M per

Hughes - 3 years, 6M per

Demko - 3 years, 3M per

Tryamkin: 1 year, 1.25M

Rafferty - 2 years, 800,000 per

 

I've warmed up to the idea of giving Pettersson and Hughes bridge deals. Originally, I wanted to sign them both long term immediately, but with the flat cap we wouldn't be able to take advantage of the term. When the cap begins to rise, we can lock them up for 6-8 years and still build around them. Demko's contract is based on young goalie comparables, mainly Blackwood. Tryamkin is brought over from the KHL and Rafferty is brought  back as a 7th/8th defenseman. All of Brisebois, Chatfield, Lind and Michaelis should also be brought back on cheap deals for depth. 

 

Expansion Draft

The Canucks protection list reads as follows:

 

Forwards: Boeser, Horvat, Miller, Pettersson, Virtanen, Gaudette and MacEwan

Defense: Schmidt, Juolevi, Rafferty

Goalie: Demko

 

Exposed: Roussel, Beagle, Ferland, Motte, Lind, Eriksson, Myers, Holtby. 

 

Protection list is relatively straightforward. It was a tough choice to protect MacEwan over Motte, but I went with the younger and cheaper asset. Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson all meet the Expansion requirements, so the Canucks will definitely meet the criteria of exposing two eligible forwards. On defense, the only two players that meet the requirements are Schmidt and Myers, and one of them must be exposed. That's a pretty easy decision. Since Edler and Hamonic will be UFAs and Hughes is ineligible, we can protect our two young defensemen. Goalies is an easy decision as well.

 

Seattle ends up taking Roussel from the Canucks. He takes the Reaves role of establishing a culture for the new team. Plus he's on an expiring deal so they can move him if they want. 

 

Trades

 

To OTT:

Eriksson

2nd 2021 

Karlsson

 

To VAN:

Future considerations

 

Ottawa can be any team that is willing to take one year of Eriksson. His salary will be lower than his cap hit, so hopefully a team below the cap floor will be interested. Karlsson can also be changed with most of our other prospects. If this doesn't get it done, I would add a mid round pick as well. This trade obviously frees up an extra 6M in cap space for the Canucks in the offseason. 

 

To NSH:

Gaudette

Juolevi 

1st 2022 (top-10 protected)

 

To VAN:

Arvidsson

 

This is clearly an aggressive move. Finding wingers for Horvat has been a problem for a long time and this gets him one. This trade is made assuming Nashville underperforms and commits to a re-tool or rebuild. For Nashville, they get two young players and a 1st to kick start their plan. They were rumoured to be very interested in Gaudette back when they were trying to move Subban, so he is a piece that would likely entice them. Juolevi would provide insurance for them on the back end in case they lose Ekholm to the Expansion draft or Free Agency. He and Fabbro would be the young pieces on their blue line behind their vets Josi and Ellis. The Canucks get a scoring RW on a great contract. Arvidsson would have 3 years left at 4.25M at the time of this deal, which is great for a 30 goal scorer. He would fit in well with the high energy style the forwards play with and could play with either Pettersson or Horvat effectively. 

 

Free Agency

Larsson - 3 years, 5M per

Stepan - 2 years, 2.5M per

Benn - 1 year, 900,000

 

Larsson steps in and fills our constant need for a top-4 RHD. He can partner with Hughes and take the Tanev role effectively. The contract must be three years or less though since Hughes will need a contract at that time, so the money will be relocated to him. Stepan can step in and be our veteran 3C. He's right handed, which is perfect for our group. He'll likely be looking for a bounceback year and has been declining for the last couple of years, but he's still effective at the right price and has Playoff experience from his run to the Finals with the Rangers. Any other depth free agent signings such as a third string goalie would obviously occur as well. Benn returns for depth and any other small signings would obviously occur as well. 

 

Lineup

 

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser

Podkolzin - Horvat - Arvidsson

Hoglander - Stepan - Virtanen

Motte - Beagle - MacEwan

 

Hughes - Larsson

Schmidt - Myers

Rathbone - Tryamkin

 

Demko

Holltby

 

Ferland 

Rafferty

Benn

 

Cap Space: 1.5M

 

Powerplay 1:

Miller - Horvat - Pettersson 

Boeser - Hughes

 

Powerplay 2:

Arvidsson - Stepan - Podkolzin

Hoglander - Schmidt

 

Penalty Kill 1:

Beagle - Motte

Schmidt - Larsson

 

Penalty Kill 2:

Stepan - Podkolzin

Tryamkin - Myers

 

The forward core is very talented and very deep. The top line will have another year of chemistry and growth. The second and line is Horvat with good wingers, which is an upgrade on what we have currently. The third line brings in Hoglander, who should be able to provide energy and offense in his second year with a veteran and Virtanen. I would call that an upgrade as well. The fourth line is essentially the same, with our defensive specialists. Our defense is almost the same as this year, with Larsson stepping into the Hamonic spot. The top 4 is locked in. Rathbone replaces Juolevi and Tryamkin replaces Benn, both of which could be upgrades but possibly not. Goalies are the same. Ideally I would like to move Ferland and bring in another defenseman for the bottom pair, but I don't think moving Ferland will be moveable. 

 

I think this team is closer to contending than we are currently, mainly due to the depth up front and the expected growth of our young players. Podkolzin and Hoglander are two big boosts up front and really help out the middle-6. Our top-9 would be one of the best in the league if they both can fill their spots effectively. Every line as two solid bodies physically. Our defense isn't great, but we can ride our top-4. Rathbone will be a rookie, so I wouldn't expect him to be a contributor yet. This team would also have over 25M in cap space for the following offseason. The notable contracts that would expire would be Boeser, Virtanen and Holtby so it should be a relatively low stress summer cap wise. 

That’s some nice day dreaming because the following will not happen

1) Ottawa is not acquiring LE and future considerations is cute 

2) Trymakin is not signing with Vancouver

3) Myers will not be exposed in the expansion draft because of his no trade clause

4) Arvidson is not leaving Nashville as he is their heart and soul guy and few scoring threats and don’t need more defensive prospects 

5) There is no way Hughes or Petersson sign their next deal for less then $7 million a season each as that is what Barzal got 

[UKNuck96]

1 hour ago, IjustNEEDaTROYgamble said:

That’s some nice day dreaming because the following will not happen

1) Ottawa is not acquiring LE and future considerations is cute 

2) Trymakin is not signing with Vancouver

3) Myers will not be exposed in the expansion draft because of his no trade clause

4) Arvidson is not leaving Nashville as he is their heart and soul guy and few scoring threats and don’t need more defensive prospects 

5) There is no way Hughes or Petersson sign their next deal for less then $7 million a season each as that is what Barzal got 

1– agree

2– disagree, I think we have Hamonic this year Tryamkin next. Parted last season with a lot of promise between both parties and cap wise next season it won’t be a problem

3– Myers can be exposed his NTC is structured so that he is draft eligible

4– agree the trade makes no sense for Arvidson as while it’s a large payment it’s not addressing any of their needs and is gutting our younger players and shrinking our core to get better in one area at the expense of another

5-I’m not so sure, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pety took a lower bridge with the view that he would then get a max contract in order to win or at least go deep for a cup. I might be wrong but he seems the sort of person that want to win, and in the nhl part of winning is cost controlled cap based on the team need not based on other players on other teams. This is something Boston have managed to do well over the years

[ImConfused]

I'm confused (as usual)

 

How does one contend in the off-season? What trophy is there to contend for?

 

[IBatch]

On 1/7/2021 at 12:25 PM, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

 

Pettersson's deal is the same as Point's deal. Point was coming off a 41 goal, 92 point season when he signed that deal. That's good for 0.52 goals per game and 1.16 points per game. Pettersson has not come close to either of those marks yet in his career; he would need 65+ points this year given the shortened schedule to match Point's point production and 30+ goals to match his goal production (assuming he plays every game). I don't think it's impossible for him to reach those marks, but it's impossible to know whether he did or didn't right now. Plus, Point remained healthier over his first two seasons than Pettersson, playing in an extra 11 games. You pay for durability as well. 

 

For Hughes, the best comparable is probably Chabot, but he signed a long term deal. For a bridge deal, I looked at Werenski. In his second year in the NHL, Werenski set the franchise record for defenseman goals while playing in less than 82 games (a record that he broke again last year in even less games played). He scored at 0.54 pointer per game in his third year after setting that record and having a great rookie season. Hughes in his one season so far scored at a 0.78 points per game rate, which is considerably higher while also setting multiple franchise records. As such, I paid him considerably more than Werenski for the same term. We'll have to see how well Hughes does this year because he only has one year of work to draw from. 

Barzal signed for 7, AHO - well that’s not a bridge.   The only way we get EP for less is if he underperforms this year.   Doubtful but it does happen.   Point isn’t a fair comp - he took the discount because the bottom line is comparable to a 7.5 bridge anywhere else but Vegas, Miami and to a lesser degree Dallas.   Plus they are a contender.    He will get his massive pay day, and he’s more then earned it. 
 

Others have already pointed out LE will cost a lot more then a mid round pick - unless by that you meant a mid round first in which case it’s possible.   Marleau cost that, and that was before Covid (and now cap is king).    Best possible situation for us is he quits. 
 

But thanks for the thoughtful thread.   OJ  is too early to write off - his value alone could quite easily end up higher then Arvidsson.  IF he can replace Edler we’d be in the cat bird seat.   So far not terrible not great either - just pretty decent.    

[DownUndaCanuck]

I think JB is really going to try and grow from within. Next season we have 24M cap space without anyone signed. What Hughes and Petey get really rests on their performance this season and right now they're both pretty average. Combined with a Covid cap, it might be a good chance to lock them up long term and cheaply.

 

Pettersson - 6.5M x 6 years

Hughes - 6M x 6 years

Juolevi - 2M x 2 years

Demko - 2M x 2 years

Hamonic - 2M x 2 years

Sutter - 2M x 2 years

Chatfield - 900K x 1 year

Gaudette - 800K x 1 year

 

Leaves us with around 1.5M to play with. Pearson walks and is replaced by youth hopefully (Podz?). 

 

Let Benn walk (replaced by Hamonic/youth).

 

Would be nice to try and get Edler back for a cheap 1-2 year deal considering he's still playing well (our high minute man) but Hughes, Juolevi, Myers and Schmidt should be able to swallow his minutes. 

 

Not much room for outsiders coming in though. If we let Sutter walk we need to find ourselves a third line center who's good at faceoffs and killing penalties and there won't be many out there.

 

[BigTramFan]

14 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I think JB is really going to try and grow from within. Next season we have 24M cap space without anyone signed. What Hughes and Petey get really rests on their performance this season and right now they're both pretty average. Combined with a Covid cap, it might be a good chance to lock them up long term and cheaply.

 

Pettersson - 6.5M x 6 years

Hughes - 6M x 6 years

Juolevi - 2M x 2 years

Demko - 2M x 2 years

Hamonic - 2M x 2 years

Sutter - 2M x 2 years

Chatfield - 900K x 1 year

Gaudette - 800K x 1 year

 

Leaves us with around 1.5M to play with. Pearson walks and is replaced by youth hopefully (Podz?). 

 

Let Benn walk (replaced by Hamonic/youth).

 

Would be nice to try and get Edler back for a cheap 1-2 year deal considering he's still playing well (our high minute man) but Hughes, Juolevi, Myers and Schmidt should be able to swallow his minutes. 

 

Not much room for outsiders coming in though. If we let Sutter walk we need to find ourselves a third line center who's good at faceoffs and killing penalties and there won't be many out there.

 

Yeah all this talk about how there will be a ton of cap space opening up and dead contracts leaving...not quite that simple when you factor in raises for EP, QH and TD, plus the need to fill the roster holes left by guys such as Pearson, Edler and maybe Holtby (if picked up by Seattle)...

 

I like the idea of resigning one of Edler or Hamonic for cheap. Probably not both of them with Juolevi, Chatfield and Rathbone pushing for spots next season. Although if Myers gets picked by Seattle, hmm...seems unlikely.

 

Sutter is great when he's healthy, but that is not often enough. Maybe on a $2m contract you can afford an often-injured Sutter, esp if you have Gaudette on the roster. Lowry is a big 3C that I would be keen to target.

[DownUndaCanuck]

6 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Yeah all this talk about how there will be a ton of cap space opening up and dead contracts leaving...not quite that simple when you factor in raises for EP, QH and TD, plus the need to fill the roster holes left by guys such as Pearson, Edler and maybe Holtby (if picked up by Seattle)...

 

I like the idea of resigning one of Edler or Hamonic for cheap. Probably not both of them with Juolevi, Chatfield and Rathbone pushing for spots next season. Although if Myers gets picked by Seattle, hmm...seems unlikely.

 

Sutter is great when he's healthy, but that is not often enough. Maybe on a $2m contract you can afford an often-injured Sutter, esp if you have Gaudette on the roster. Lowry is a big 3C that I would be keen to target.

Agreed, whoever it is, whether it's Sutter or one of the many UFAs, we should look at spending 2M on the 3rd line centre role. I don't think Gaudette is anywhere near ready for it and don't think he's a good fit anyway (not that good at faceoffs, not very good defensively and hasn't really started penalty killing yet). It's one of the most important roles on the team, we really should afford 3-4M for the spot but with the tighter cap and having to fit everyone in next year, I think 2M is all we can afford.

 

If Hamonic is happy to come back for peanuts then I'd throw 1-2M at him and try and get him to stay for a couple of years for sure, he's shown in the limited time he's played that he can still play 20 minutes comfortably.

 

As for Edler it's tricky, he's still our best defenceman sadly. He's 34 now but of course you see some guys playing into their late 30's comfortably. Sure he got embarrassed by McDavid's speed but who doesn't? Apart from that, he's logged 22+ minutes comfortably and is still skating, passing and hitting well so if I were JB I'd try and get him back for a 2-4M deal short-term. He's not ready to retire and will just sign somewhere else sadly, whereas with the Canucks he can help groom Hughes and Juolevi nicely, and hopefully Green will dumb down his minutes as Hughes, Myers, Schmidt, Juolevi and Hamonic take more minutes. Could be a very nice transition with 5 defencemen able to play 20 minutes and then throw a kid like Chatfield into the 6th spot. Even if he leaves, our defence is pretty solid going forward.

 

I worry about our top-6 though, we've got Hoglander in there right now and by pure luck he's doing well to semi-replace Toffoli, but when Pearson's contract expires we'll be a bit stuck. We don't really have anyone ready to walk right into that role - it should be Gaudette or Virtanen but I'm losing faith in both of them. JB might be forced to sign a UFA winger which will be costly, otherwise we hope Podz can slip into the winger spot straight away and see what happens.

[BigTramFan]

55 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Agreed, whoever it is, whether it's Sutter or one of the many UFAs, we should look at spending 2M on the 3rd line centre role. I don't think Gaudette is anywhere near ready for it and don't think he's a good fit anyway (not that good at faceoffs, not very good defensively and hasn't really started penalty killing yet). It's one of the most important roles on the team, we really should afford 3-4M for the spot but with the tighter cap and having to fit everyone in next year, I think 2M is all we can afford.

 

If Hamonic is happy to come back for peanuts then I'd throw 1-2M at him and try and get him to stay for a couple of years for sure, he's shown in the limited time he's played that he can still play 20 minutes comfortably.

 

As for Edler it's tricky, he's still our best defenceman sadly. He's 34 now but of course you see some guys playing into their late 30's comfortably. Sure he got embarrassed by McDavid's speed but who doesn't? Apart from that, he's logged 22+ minutes comfortably and is still skating, passing and hitting well so if I were JB I'd try and get him back for a 2-4M deal short-term. He's not ready to retire and will just sign somewhere else sadly, whereas with the Canucks he can help groom Hughes and Juolevi nicely, and hopefully Green will dumb down his minutes as Hughes, Myers, Schmidt, Juolevi and Hamonic take more minutes. Could be a very nice transition with 5 defencemen able to play 20 minutes and then throw a kid like Chatfield into the 6th spot. Even if he leaves, our defence is pretty solid going forward.

 

I worry about our top-6 though, we've got Hoglander in there right now and by pure luck he's doing well to semi-replace Toffoli, but when Pearson's contract expires we'll be a bit stuck. We don't really have anyone ready to walk right into that role - it should be Gaudette or Virtanen but I'm losing faith in both of them. JB might be forced to sign a UFA winger which will be costly, otherwise we hope Podz can slip into the winger spot straight away and see what happens.

I'm on the same page regarding Edler and Hamonic at those contract values.

 

Re: the top 6 after Pearson...I have a lot of faith that Podz will step straight into our top 6, likely as 2RW with Horvat and Hoglander.

 

Bottom 6 - need to find a good solution to the 3C situation (Sutter/Gaudette as placeholders for now). Plus IMO need to try and move Roussel (cap hit too high and not enough impact). Would like to see a Jasek-type fighting for a spot on the 4th line to get some mentoring from Beagle with view to his replacement the following season.

 

A lot of things coming up (e.g. SEA expansion - they take Holtby?) but maybe 2021-22 roster plays out something like this:

 

Miller EP Boeser

Hogs Horvat Podz

Virtanen 3C MacEwen

Motte Beagle Jasek

(Gaudette)

 

Hughes Hamonic

Edler Schmidt

Juolevi Myers

(Rathbone Chatfield)

 

Demko (Dipietro)