Myers The 6million dollar man 2.0

[Silky mitts]

7 hours ago, Dazzle said:

@knucklehead91 Hey dude. It's pretty obvious that both of them have no grasp of statistics, so they rely on people who do. In other words, kanucks25 and silky are looking for confirmation biases to support their claims, which is nothing new. Both of them are notable Benning bashers and regularly ignore evidence that doesn't support their viewpoints.

CDC can't stand any criticism of Benning , and if you don't blindly accept the homerish takes on here you are seen as a "basher". Jimbo should  be warranted for criticism and he has made numerous mistakes and ill advised moves.  The same would go for any other GM making those moves. 

[Provost]

14 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

- Myers is 2nd last for CF, but when you have a majority of dzone starts, you corsi is going to be relatively lower. Keith F***ing Yandle has a 71.7 ozS and his oiSV is .894.. thats brutal. even with his 55.8 corsi.

 

That simply isn’t true at all.  The brightest minds in hockey analytics have shown in different studies that zone starts have no impact on Corsi.

If you don’t want to read this, the summary is that even just taking the players with the most extreme zone starts disparities, less than 5% of them have a more than 1% difference in Corsi when adjusted for zone starts.

 

https://hockeyviz.com/static/pdf/rithac.pdf

 

Also, Myers has had exactly 10 more defensive zone starts this season than offensive zone starts at 5v5 (73 vs. 63) which is what the dZone start % reflects.  That is slightly more than a single shift every 4 games (0.27 shifts a game).  You can throw away every comment you made comparing a stat to his dZone starts because it represents virtually nothing at all.  It doesn't affect Corsi or other stats because it doesn't reflect more than a fraction of a shift per game.

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Provost

[Provost]

14 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

Do you understand how on ice save % works?

So how is it that a guy with less ozone time than all the mentioned above, has a higher oiSV% 

Well that is a deep misunderstanding of the stat and what it means.

 

On ice save % has zero relationship with ozone/dZone starts.  That is just flat out wrong.  The statement that a player with more ozone starts should have a higher on ice save % just isn’t true.

 

A player who starts more often in the dZone may have more shots against than someone who starts more in the ozone (that really isn’t true as the above post shows) but turning it into a save % literally is intended to correct for that and make them comparable.

 

What difference does it make what zone a shift starts in as to whether a goalie saves a shot or not?  It could actually be the reverse relationship than you are suggesting.  If you start a shift in the dZone, all 5 of your players are in the zone helping defend the shot.  If you start in the ozone, it is actually much more likely that if a shot against you happens, it is coming off an off man rush because you will have your forwards trapped up the ice.... those shots are much more likely to end up as goals.

 

On ice save % is just a bad stat to use to compare skaters.  There are too many other variables at play (like the goaltender, the quality of opposition, randomness, etc).  Even for goaltenders, save % is considered a really poor stat.  Expected goals for and against is what is used as it corrects for shot quality.

 

Demko has the 2nd most expected goals against of any goalie in the league.  That means the defence in front of him is doing a poor job of reducing high danger chances... and he is doing a good job of saving them anyways.  
 

Here is a comparison of high danger chances against this season 5v5 for some of those D you mentioned.  That takes the quality of goaltending out of the equation.  The higher the number, the more high danger chances a D is giving up.

 

Myers is 2nd worst on the list defensively.  On the other side of the puck he also brings less offensively than a lot of these guys.  Myers is 66th in points per game played amongst all D who have played at least 10 games this season.  Morrissey, the only guy worse than Myers for poor defensive play is 46th in points per game.

Myers 131 (12.46 per 60)

Werenski 81 (9.37 per 60)
Jones 120 (10.6 per 60)

Ellis 56 (8.92 per 60)

Giordano 112 (12.38 per 60)

Provorov 82 (8.55 per 60)

Provorov 82 (8.55 per 60)

Faulk 103 (9.41 per 60)

Hamilton 91 (10.11 per 60)

Slavin 90 (9.91 per 60)

Theodore 88 (10.21 per 60)

Morrissey 159 (14.87 per 60)

Weber 72 (8.37 per 60)

Petry 66 (7.58 per 60)

Hedman 93 (9.33 per 60)

Ekblad 81 (8.67 per 60)

Yandle 57 (8.67 per 60)

Doughty 103 (9.94 per 60)

Also, guess who is at the top of the board for most minor penalties taken? Guess what taking penalties leads to?  Does he get a pass for the team getting scored on because he is in the box and the one who created the power play opportunities?  Myers has the 2nd most minor penalties of any D in the entire league.  Bogosian is the only one who has taken more.  Tyler "Minors" is actually his nickname.

Beyond few the stats used (which I have shown don't show what you suggest they show), which of the below list would you trade for Myers straight up.... pretty much all of them.  I probably don't trade a couple of them because of the term left on their contracts (hey Doughty... looking at you)... but using the reference group of "worst contracts" in the league isn't a reasonable comparison to say Myers isn't actually a bad contract.

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Provost

[lmm]

13 hours ago, PhillipBlunt said:

The Baumgartner angle is never addressed enough. Or as much as I want it to be addressed. 

that is because it is so easily lost amongst the Green angle and the Jim angle

[Timråfan]

13 hours ago, Devron44 said:

Yup good ol Canucks fans making issues that aren’t warranted. Myers is fine. Little overpaid but not far off.
 

I can’t even get into it with people I just say the contracts worth it cause it’s not that far off. Some people make it sound like LE or something. 

 

You want to know the issues with our cap

Baertchi

Spooner Buyout

Luongo 

And my nemesis Loui Eriksson

 

Everything else is circumstantial, Mostly from injury  

Funny thing here is that if Loui was given the same toi he would crush Myers defensive stats. 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

5 minutes ago, Timråfan said:

Funny thing here is that if Loui was given the same toi he would crush Myers defensive stats. 

Time to convert Eriksson to a defenceman and get Sweet Loui back into the lineup!  

[Devron]

8 minutes ago, Timråfan said:

Funny thing here is that if Loui was given the same toi he would crush Myers defensive stats. 

Loui is done. He’s lost 12 steps. Couple years ago I’d agree with you. Loui alone is the reason why we couldn’t afford a guy like Toffoli after covid squashed the cap

[Timråfan]

3 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

Loui is done. He’s lost 12 steps. Couple years ago I’d agree with you. Loui alone is the reason why we couldn’t afford a guy like Toffoli after covid squashed the cap

Yes, off course, blame the guy that got a nice contract instead of the one who gave it to him.

Loui is def done as a forward because players need confidence and he lost that a few years back. 
If Benning kept Stecher and Fantenberg, not signing Schmidt and Hamonic/Hawreyluk it could have been possible to land Toffoli.

so blame the strategic decisions and the guy that is allowed to make those bad decisions.

[Devron]

Honestly not much for advanced stats. Especially with the way our team is coached defensively. It’s effective at times but the collapse style and Myers second in team minutes doesn’t really tell the story imo. He’s a fine defencemen and one that our team really hurts when he’s outta of the line up. For those reasons hes slightly overpaid but nothing like it’s made out to be by some. It’s one of those things if he was on another team people would be saying. “We could use a guy like Myers”

[Devron]

6 minutes ago, Timråfan said:

Yes, off course, blame the guy that got a nice contract instead of the one who gave it to him.

Loui is def done as a forward because players need confidence and he lost that a few years back. 
If Benning kept Stecher and Fantenberg, not signing Schmidt and Hamonic/Hawreyluk it could have been possible to land Toffoli.

so blame the strategic decisions and the guy that is allowed to make those bad decisions.

I 100% blame Loui Eriksson. Always will. 
 

A guy that use to be a really good hockey player both sides of the ice. Another example of JB maybe spending a million too much and a year too long. But we got nothing other then “well he’s good defensively” since day 1. That’s 100% on Loui Eriksson. 30 freaking goals, seasons with 70 points! 
 

Yeah that’s all on LE

Edited March 27, 2021 by Devron44

[knucklehead91]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Well that is a deep misunderstanding of the stat and what it means.

 

On ice save % has zero relationship with ozone/dZone starts.  That is just flat out wrong.  The statement that a player with more ozone starts should have a higher on ice save % just isn’t true.

 

A player who starts more often in the dZone may have more shots against than someone who starts more in the ozone (that really isn’t true as the above post shows) but turning it into a save % literally is intended to correct for that and make them comparable.

 

What difference does it make what zone a shift starts in as to whether a goalie saves a shot or not?  It could actually be the reverse relationship than you are suggesting.  If you start a shift in the dZone, all 5 of your players are in the zone helping defend the shot.  If you start in the ozone, it is actually much more likely that a shot against is coming off an off man rush because you will have your forwards trapped up the ice.... those shots are much more likely to end up as goals.

 

On ice save % is just a bad stat to use to compare skaters.  There are too many other variables at play (like the goaltender, the quality of opposition, randomness, etc).  Even for goaltenders, save % is considered a really poor stat.  Expected goals for and against is what is used as it corrects for shot quality.

 

Demko has the 2nd most expected goals against of any goalie in the league.  That means the defence in front of him is doing a poor job of reducing high danger chances... and he is doing a good job of saving them anyways.  
 

Here is a comparison of high danger chances against this season 5v5 for some of those D you mentioned (I don’t have time to do all of them).  That takes the quality of goaltending out of the equation.  The higher the number, the more high danger chances a D is giving up.

 

Myers is 2nd worst on the list defensively.  On the other side of the puck he also brings less offensively than a lot of these guys.

 

Myers 131 (12.46 per 60)

Werenski 81 (9.37 per 60)

Jones 120 (10.6 per 60)

Ellis 56 (8.92 per 60)

Giordano 112 (12.38 per 60)

Provorov 82 (8.55 per 60)

Faulk 103 (9.41 per 60)

Hamilton 91 (10.11 per 60)

Slavin 90 (9.91 per 60)

Theodore 88 (10.21 per 60)

Morrissey 159 (14.87 per 60)

Shea Weber 72 (8.37 per 60)

Petry 66 (7.58 per 60)

Hedman 93 (9.33 per 60)

Ekblad 81 (8.38 per 60)

Yandle 57 (8.67 per 60)

Doughty 103 (9.94 per 60)

 

 

 

 

Okay even if you take away dZs and oZs 

on ice save% isnt a lucky stat and just a stat for the goalie. Goalies need to see pucks, if they dont see pucks, i doubt they are stopping it.
Myers is 3rd on D for oiSV% over 30 games played. Schmidt has 45 givesaways, Hughes has 36 and Myers has 31. SCHMIDT HAS 1.5 MORE TURNOVERS. Thats making our goalies job more difficult and for the other 4 guys on the ice.

Do high danger chances factor in end of a penalty, Horrible line changes, broken sticks, forwads not gaining centre and icing it leading to a tired faceoff, the other 4 players on the ice? Rebound control? Giveaways at either end of the ice, neutral zone giveaways, his dpair, Odd man advantages (off the rush) Or its is stat that is all based of a controlled entry 1v1?

 

There are so many factors for high danger chances etc, its 5 guys on the ice and they all have a job to do. Theres 
High danger chances while player X is on the ice...... hes not the only player on the ice, what are the other 4 players doing? Think of how many breakaways, odd man rushes and missed assignments there have been this season.

How many times have you seen Myers sliding along the ice to try and break up a 2v1 or 3v1? These high danger chances are also given up by other players on ice. Hughes has been tragic, Hamonic and Schmidt had a real rough patch of games. Hamonic went down and we saw 3 other Dmen suit up, Chatfield was a -7 in his short stint

If you look at expected +/- based on shooting % in certain spots from around the league, Myers is -1 and guys like Seth Jones are -10. Meaning Myers is not making Demko’s job difficult, if you think its goaltending thats saving us, look no further than than the entire TBL roster, they all Are E+/- minus, meaning they are out of position in the dzone and Vas is holding their season together. Without him, they wouldnt be a +42 and first in the league. That is goaltending making defence look good, when really.... a goalie with his own TSN top 50 saves highlight reel, is showing how poorly positioned the dzone coverage is.

 

Myers is actually providing as much offense 5v5 than over half the guys on that list. He has 9ESP 2SHP 3PP

Hedman has 19 of his 33pts on the PP That leaves Hedman with 14 ESP, 5 more than Myers, who has 2 SHP. Which why not combine his ESP and SHP as he is playing with a handicap. That would mean when the opposition has 5 guys on the ice, Myers has 11 points, 3 Behind the guy who leads all dmen in points.

Myers doesnt get PP time, so of course his offense looks dismal compared to QH, Hedman, Doughty, Barrie, etc, most of these guys get 2.5-3 minutes of power play time and have over half their points on the PP

 

Possession is such an overrated stat. Theres 5 guys on the ice. Possession comes from a faceoff, if you dont win the faceoff, forwards need to retrieve it. D doesnt retrieve pucks unless a battle below the goal line or scrambles infront of the net.
 

[Provost]

34 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

Okay even if you take away dZs and oZs 

on ice save% isnt a lucky stat and just a stat for the goalie. Goalies need to see pucks, if they dont see pucks, i doubt they are stopping it.
Myers is 3rd on D for oiSV% over 30 games played. Schmidt has 45 givesaways, Hughes has 36 and Myers has 31. SCHMIDT HAS 1.5 MORE TURNOVERS. Thats making our goalies job more difficult and for the other 4 guys on the ice.

Do high danger chances factor in end of a penalty, Horrible line changes, broken sticks, forwads not gaining centre and icing it leading to a tired faceoff, the other 4 players on the ice? Rebound control? Giveaways at either end of the ice, neutral zone giveaways, his dpair, Odd man advantages (off the rush) Or its is stat that is all based of a controlled entry 1v1?

 

There are so many factors for high danger chances etc, its 5 guys on the ice and they all have a job to do. Theres 
High danger chances while player X is on the ice...... hes not the only player on the ice, what are the other 4 players doing? Think of how many breakaways, odd man rushes and missed assignments there have been this season.

High danger chances do account for those things.   On ice save % is simply not a good indicator for how well a certain D is “helping the goalie see the pucks”. Which is what you claimed.  
 

Now you are changing your argument to say that high danger chances don’t represent things because player X is not the only one on the ice.  Guess what... the same applies for on ice save %.  Except even more so... that stat is worse because it also gets mixed up with a goalie’s ability.  High danger chances remove the goalie from the equation, unlike on ice save %.

High danger chances are are a fairly steady and repeatable stat for defenceless, which means that it is how they play regardless of what partners they have and what goalie is behind them.

Myers has been above 10 high danger chances per 60 basically his entire career over 3 teams and with many different partners and goalies. 

That is just not a good defensive player.

There were a couple exceptions, and those were like 2016 when he only played 11 games so the sample isn’t big enough for that.

 

On ice save % is in fact just a lucky stat that is entirely dependent on a lot more variables than one specific player on the ice.  Go look up “worst stats in the NHL” and you will see most analytics experts say it is one of the worst.  It isn’t even a good stat for goalies, never mind removing it a step further and using it to show the effectiveness of a defence man.

 

Every argument you are making for it (seeing shots, etc) are literally why expected goals or high danger chances is actually the better stat, because it actually counts shot quality.  It counts for if it is in the paint vs. from the blue line... it accounts for if it is a rebound, etc.  It corrects for basically everything a defenceman can actually impact with his defensive play.

 

Sorry, Myers just isn’t good defensively... at least nowhere near his contract level.  When he was signed here, basically every hockey pundit told people to be ready for that.  He also isn’t good enough offensively to make up for that.  He is above average offensively, but not nearly enough to be paid as a top pairing D like he currently is.

 

He is a #4D being paid like a #2.

 

If (when) he is exposed in expansion, he probably isn’t taken because of his contract.

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Provost

[aGENT]

13 minutes ago, Provost said:

He is above average offensively, but not nearly enough to be paid as a top pairing D like he currently is.

 

I keep seeing this and it simply is not true and I think a lot of the reason for the 'his contract sucks' talk/confusion.

 

He's paid on the higher end of second pairing pay scale. First pair, UFA aged D make $7-8m on the low end, or higher.

Edited March 27, 2021 by aGENT

[Provost]

9 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I keep seeing this and it simply is not true and I think a lot of the reason for the 'his contract sucks' talk/confusion.

 

He's paid on the higher end of second pairing pay scale. First pair, UFA aged D make $7-8m on the low end, or higher.

Except he is literally tied for 28th highest paid D in the league.

 

31 teams x 2 top pairing D per team = 62 top pairing D.  That means half the top pairing D are paid less than he is.

 

He is paid not just like a top pairing, he is paid like a #1 D.

 

The only reason I lower it to “only” paid like a top pairing instead of a #1 like he currently is...is due to inflation and the fact that some of those contracts were signed when the cap was lower than when he signed.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Provost

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

Except he is literally tied for 28th highest paid D in the league.

 

31 teams x 2 top pairing D per team = 62 top pairing D.  That means half the top pairing D are paid less than he is.

 

He is paid not just like a top pairing, he is paid like a #1 D.

 

The only reason I lower it to “only” paid like a top pairing instead of a #1 like he currently is...is due to inflation and the fact that some of those contracts were signed when the cap was lower than when he signed.

RFA vs UFA years. You can't apples and oranges that no matter how much you folks want to ignore it. Just because there aren't 62, UFA aged, first pair D does not change that fact.

 

UFA aged, first pair D make between $7-8m and $11-$12m (give or take). That's their market value. Period.

Edited March 27, 2021 by aGENT

[Primal Optimist]

I am not a Myers fan, as my previous thread on the subject outlines extensively, but he picked it up a little bit in March relative to his january and february. I wouldn't be opposed to trading him out if the club gets better/deeper as a result. I thnk Juolevi's spear fishing technique is miles ahead of Tyler Myers two way abiltiy anyhow, would rather see the young Finn in the linup working on his NHL game for the future at this point. 

[The Colt 45s]

After taking graduate level statistics, I can tell you this.  When people start throwing out stats, most people start thinking about beagles chasing rabbits.  

[Provost]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

RFA vs UFA years. You can't apples and oranges that no matter how much you folks want to ignore it. Just because there aren't 62, UFA aged, first pair D does not change that fact.

 

UFA aged, first pair D make between $7-8m and $11-$12m (give or take). That's their market value. Period.

Well you can put a bunch of qualifiers on it to try to make an argument... but he is one of the top paid D in the league, paid as a #1D as it stands right now.  Period.

RFA are paid market rate compared with UFAs... that has been true for years now.  There is no discount on 2nd and 3rd contracts.  As a matter of fact, the market has paid younger RFAs MORE due to upside vs. UFA veterans who have comparatively better numbers.  Show some evidence that isn't true to support your assertion.

There are qualifiers the other way if we want to just invent things to change what actual objective reality in terms of salaries and dollars means.

Since 2018, out of ALL free agent D signings... there have ONLY been FOUR who have been signed to higher cap hits than Myers... that includes RFA and UFA.  

Pietrangelo ($8.8 million), Krug ($6.5 million), Trouba ($8 million), Provorov ($6.75 million).

Each one of those guys is miles better than Myers.

Where are all the $11-12 million guys that have been signed in the same market conditions as Myers was? Show me the market that is giving D that kind of money.  There are only two guys over $10 million in the entire league.... only 4 guys $9 million or more.  Only 17 guys making $7 million or more.... 62 top pairing D and only 17 are making in the $7-12 million range you say they are worth.  That just doesn't add up man.  They aren't being signed to those dollars.  Period.  It isn't true.

A lot of NHL D have been signed in the last three years (hundreds?)... but not one got more than $8.8 million.  There are a bunch of guys who got signed for lower money in those years, under the same market conditions than Myers who are playing top pairing minutes.

Of those four, you were buying more prime years of young guys Provorov, Trouba... whereas with Myers you are paying extra term for years in his mid 30's when players are expected to decline, so his contract looks even worse.  Those two were RFAs and were amongst the highest paid D in recent years, entirely counter to your argument that RFAs and UFAs are "apples and oranges".  UFA players who were superior to Myers got paid less.

This coming season, Hughes who is a franchise elite #1D and not even in his prime will likely struggle to get a bridge deal with a seven at the start of it... in no universe is he going to get $11-12 million.

You can take a guy who wasn't even a free agent and was just extended in Josi.  Just over $9 million for an elite top pairing D.  Another top pairing D in Petry got extended for $6.25 million.  Anyone who argues either of these guys aren't top pairing D is out to lunch.
 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Provost

[AV.]

How can anybody actually rate Myers at 6M with a straight face?

 

If he was making 2M or under, sure.  But 6M?  Lmfao hard pass.

 

Benning brigade back at it with their hooliganism. 

[AV.]

"But..but..the UFA market!!!!"