[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Bure_of_94 said:

I’m really intrigued now as to what they do with Miller. With Hertl making 8M x 8... you have to think Miller’s next contract will be somewhere in between Rantanen and Tavares’ 9.25-11m x 6/7. 
 

 Do we trade him? He’s a driver and pushes hard. But his stock should be super high right now. On the other hand if this year is his career year and he’s less than ppg next year, his value drops (could be good for a contract negotiation). 
 

 

 

 

If Miller waits until free agency in July 2023, what contract offer does he get from one of the other teams?  

[JM_]

10 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I think Bo would be the pretty easy to retain. We drafted him, he's the captain, he's put down roots and started a family here there's a lot of history. 

 

It's funny, folks are so quick to presume it's make or break with Miller, but we can absolutely be a good team without him. That's what management would have to sell Bo on. Want him to stay? Sell him on it, and show him you're serious. 

I'm not assuming its make or break, just think we're lucky to have him and don't believe it will be easy to replace him, or that there's just one best way to re-jig the team to be a stronger contender.

 

Hey if it happens it happens, but nothing comes without consequences, some unintended. And sometimes unexpected good things happen too. 

 

Its easy to say this prospect or that cap space will get us to a better place, I just look at who we have now in Miller, Bo, Petey, Hughes, Demko and want to hang the rest of the bobbles from that tree. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by JM_

[Coconuts]

1 minute ago, JM_ said:

I'm not assuming its make or break, just think we're lucky to have him and don't believe it will be easy to replace him, or that there's just one best way to re-jig the team to be a stronger contender.

 

Hey if it happens it happens, but nothing comes without consequences, some unintended. And somethings unexpected good things happen too. 

 

Its easy to say this prospect or that cap space will get to a better place, I just look at who we have now in Miller, Bo, Petey, Hughes, Demko and want to hang the rest of the bobbles from that tree. 

And nobody here's been arguing that it would be. But you don't have to replace him with a single player, that's what several folks have been arguing. There's more than one way to build a playoff team, let alone a contender. 

 

Augment the roster, build around the youth we've got, and be extremely careful handing out significant term.

 

And if you move Miller you still have the aforementioned players. Horvat, Pettersson, Hughes, Demko. Moving Miller isn't committing to a rebuild, it's simply taking the team in another direction. We've got good pieces, this team can be better if it gets younger and works on developing the appropriate depth. 

 

I'm not interested in handing Miller 7-8 years at 9M+, not even remotely. A short term anchor is still an anchor. Sign him to 7-8 years and there's no way he'll play like a 9M+ for all of them, I'm not interested in giving that up to get maybe 3-4 great years. An anchor is an anchor any way you spin it. With a larger contract comes greater expectations, and if he doesn't maintain his current level, which I doubt he does, he won't be worth it. 

[Bure_of_94]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

If Miller waits until free agency in July 2023, what contract offer does he get from one of the other teams?  

Depends on next season. But I think even if he’s .8-.9ppg next season(slight regression or off year compared to this one)  that a couple teams would offer him 10 million over 7/8. 
  If he repeats this season, there will be a team or two that might throw 11.5-12.5 at him over 6-8years. 
 

 He’s in flirting with top 10 in league scoring but as we all know brings grit and heart as well. Most of the other forwards in the top 20 for league scoring are making 9-12 and most of them are 1 dimensional.  There’s no doubt in my mind that Miller would be a Captain in most places where they have a vacancy. 
 

 

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Bure_of_94 said:

Depends on next season. But I think even if he’s .8-.9ppg next season(slight regression or off year compared to this one)  that a couple teams would offer him 10 million over 7/8. 
  If he repeats this season, there will be a team or two that might throw 11.5-12.5 at him over 6-8years. 
 

 He’s in flirting with top 10 in league scoring but as we all know brings grit and heart as well. Most of the other forwards in the top 20 for league scoring are making 9-12 and most of them are 1 dimensional.  There’s no doubt in my mind that Miller would be a Captain in most places where they have a vacancy. 
 

 

How many 30 year old players get such contracts?  I see Miller understanding to take a quality offer from us this summer.  We will sign him for 8.5 x 8.  Might be a little less or a little more.  Won't get to 9 and won't be under 8.  

[Smashian Kassian]

[Coconuts]

Just now, Smashian Kassian said:

Yes, because most of the proposals that have been thrown around in this thread are definitely centered around draft picks and not young players who are currently playing in the NHL or on the cusp of making it.. 

 

All about lottery tickets, definitely not specific players.. 

[JM_]

11 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

And nobody here's been arguing that it would be. But you don't have to replace him with a single player, that's what several folks have been arguing. There's more than one way to build a playoff team, let alone a contender. 

 

Augment the roster, build around the youth we've got, and be extremely careful handing out significant term.

 

And if you move Miller you still have the aforementioned players. Horvat, Pettersson, Hughes, Demko. Moving Miller isn't committing to a rebuild, it's simply taking the team in another direction. We've got good pieces, this team can be better if it gets younger and works on developing the appropriate depth. 

 

I'm not interested in handing Miller 7-8 years at 9M+, not even remotely. A short term anchor is still an anchor. Sign him to 7-8 years and there's no way he'll play like a 9M+ for all of them, I'm not interested in giving that up to get maybe 3-4 great years. An anchor is an anchor any way you spin it. With a larger contract comes greater expectations, and if he doesn't maintain his current level, which I doubt he does, he won't be worth it. 

I think thats where the keep Miller and trade Miller camps really depart, is on the back 1/2 of the mega deal. Could we move him to whoever the bottom feeder team is at that point? maybe. 

 

We may also just end up keeping him for one more year. Next year he'll be super-motived if we don't extend him so thats not the worst thing to have either. 

 

Unless we get a really great return, I'd rather just hang on to him.

[stawns]

23 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I'm not assuming its make or break, just think we're lucky to have him and don't believe it will be easy to replace him, or that there's just one best way to re-jig the team to be a stronger contender.

 

Hey if it happens it happens, but nothing comes without consequences, some unintended. And sometimes unexpected good things happen too. 

 

Its easy to say this prospect or that cap space will get us to a better place, I just look at who we have now in Miller, Bo, Petey, Hughes, Demko and want to hang the rest of the bobbles from that tree. 

Do you really, truly think Vancouver is his pick of places to not only play the bulk of his career, but finish it as well?

[JM_]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

Do you really, truly think Vancouver is his pick of places to not only play the bulk of his career, but finish it as well?

maybe, others have picked it. We're not the arm pit of the planet.

[Bure_of_94]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

How many 30 year old players get such contracts?  I see Miller understanding to take a quality offer from us this summer.  We will sign him for 8.5 x 8.  Might be a little less or a little more.  Won't get to 9 and won't be under 8.  

I believed that 2 days ago, and it’s certainly logical but after Hertl(Who is the same age as Miller) signed a 8year x 8.14 million contract at about .7ppg, I think the minimum comparable contract is Rantanen’s at 9.25 over 6 years. 
 

 I think Miller is very similar to Rantanen in terms of offensive production, but far superior to Hertl. 
 

 Who knows though, maybe Miller will take a discount to stay in Vancouver, but with him being American, maybe that factors in as well and as his agent said yesterday we’d have to “show him the money” to get him to stay. 

[Coconuts]

9 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I think thats where the keep Miller and trade Miller camps really depart, is on the back 1/2 of the mega deal. Could we move him to whoever the bottom feeder team is at that point? maybe. 

 

We may also just end up keeping him for one more year. Next year he'll be super-motived if we don't extend him so thats not the worst thing to have either. 

 

Unless we get a really great return, I'd rather just hang on to him.

The problem with signing him to a contract, hoping he plays at an elite level for part of it and being willing to move him out of he falls off, is that you're not just paying him whatever he'll get in his contract but you're paying whatever it takes to move him too

 

Even if you retain 50% of whatever that deal ends up being you're still paying a large price to move out probably a minimum of 4-4.5M, during a time where our youth should realistically be closer to their peak and when we could be better suited using the assets we'd have to pay to dump Miller in older to try and contend

 

It wouldn't be a small price

 

And if we don't get a great return at the deadline we probably do just that, play out the string and revisit things after the season is over, we might not get as much but we could absolutely get a good haul leading up to the draft or at the draft

 

There's a very real possibility that he doesn't want to re-sign though, or that his ask is steeper than the Canucks should pay

 

When you're talking tens of millions of dollars and considering the future of not just Miller, but the whole team and it's future, there's gotta be a point where you're willing to walk away 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Coconuts

[stawns]

3 minutes ago, JM_ said:

maybe, others have picked it. We're not the arm pit of the planet.

No, but BC most likely has the highest income tax and cost of living rates in the league.  He could take a lower salary somewhere else in the US and still take home more than he would in Van

[JM_]

6 minutes ago, stawns said:

No, but BC most likely has the highest income tax and cost of living rates in the league.  He could take a lower salary somewhere else in the US and still take home more than he would in Van

thats not really that big of an issue - see: https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/9000000/canucks?signing_bonus=3000000

 

I did a check of a 9 mil salary with a 3 mil bonus, and it only costs ~200k more in taxes between us and NY. That kind of variance can easily be handled in a bit of front loading of the contract. 

[JM_]

11 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

The problem with signing him to a contract, hoping he plays at an elite level for part of it and being willing to move him out of he falls off, is that you're not just paying him whatever he'll get in his contract but you're paying whatever it takes to move him too

 

Even if you retain 50% of whatever that deal ends up being you're still paying a large price to move out probably a minimum of 4-4.5M, during a time where our youth should realistically be closer to their peak and when we could be better suited using the assets we'd have to pay to dump Miller in older to try and contend

 

It wouldn't be a small price

 

And if we don't get a great return at the deadline we probably do just that, play out the string and revisit things after the season is over, we might not get as much but we could absolutely get a good haul leading up to the draft or at the draft

 

There's a very real possibility that he doesn't want to re-sign though, or that his ask is steeper than the Canucks should pay

 

When you're talking tens of millions of dollars and considering the future of not just Miller, but the whole team and it's future, there's gotta be a point where you're willing to walk away 

for sure, its not an easy decision. But we will be a diminished team when we move him and had better make sure whats coming back is worth it, I don't want to see it just for picks or 2nd tier prospects. 

[tas]

19 minutes ago, stawns said:

Do you really, truly think Vancouver is his pick of places to not only play the bulk of his career, but finish it as well?

where else will be get to be "the guy"?

[stawns]

4 minutes ago, JM_ said:

for sure, its not an easy decision. But we will be a diminished team when we move him and had better make sure whats coming back is worth it, I don't want to see it just for picks or 2nd tier prospects. 

That's likely what they'll have to settle for next tdl if they don't move him now or at the draft

[Fanuck]

1 minute ago, tas said:

where else will be get to be "the guy"?

True,  he's definitely that guy right here, right now.  But we've seen that story start as a fairly tale here and end as a nightmare.   

 

The real question to me that only Miller knows is does he want to be the man here or does he want to better his chances to win cups, they could be the same thing but then again they may not be?

[Coconuts]

Just now, JM_ said:

for sure, its not an easy decision. But we will be a diminished team when we move him and had better make sure whats coming back is worth it, I don't want to see it just for picks or 2nd tier prospects. 

Diminished? Yeah, but not as much as people believe I think. I'm okay with a step back for a year or two to take steps forward, according to management we're a minimum or two years out from contending anyway aren't we? I see us being further away, but these next couple years were always going to be stepping stones. 

 

We've been better under Boudreau, why wouldn't the team Al and JR put together be able to continue playing well under Boudreau without Miller? Moving Miller doesn't equate to stripping the team down. I know you haven't said we're guaranteed to be awful without him, but there are others who have implied we'd be lost without him and I don't believe that to be the case. 

 

Pettersson, Hughes, Hoglander, Podkolzin, they're all young enough that they should continue to improve. Demko is Demko, Horvat is Horvat. What do we do with Boeser or Garland? Could go either way, but at the very least we could just keep Garland. The D needs work, but we could work on that. Same with the bottom six, or even the mix up front. 

 

You don't immediately replace what a Miller brings, but why can't continued improvement from other players and perhaps new players who are brought in eat up some of the difference? Just bringing in a center or two who can actually PK effectively and help bolster what's been an up and down PK would likely result in more wins. We've really missed Beagle and Sutter this season. There's no reason we couldn't be in the mix for a playoff spot next season with the core group of players we've already got, Miller or no Miller. We aren't supposed to be contending next season anyway, so what's wrong with jockeying for a playoff spot with a slightly different group?

 

Life goes on without Miller. But yes, the return matters, we aren't trading him for the magic beans some folks around here speak of, but actual players. Known quantities. Should we get a 1st back as part of a trade? I sure as hell hope so, but it shouldn't, and likely wouldn't be, the focal piece of any Miller trade. 

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, stawns said:

That's likely what they'll have to settle for next tdl if they don't move him now or at the draft

and why bother then? I'd rather keep him for one more playoff run.

 

Off to find some green beer now, thanks for the yap.