D.B Cooper Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, JM_ said: depends on the deal. How much of it is guaranteed bonus money, how much is salary that you could lose in a buy out? Get it backloaded. Lol. We both know his contract isn’t starting with a 7. What are you even trying to argue? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, D.B Cooper said: Get it backloaded. Lol. We both know his contract isn’t starting with a 7. What are you even trying to argue? I'm not arguing, just pointing out that terms matter. One team might offer 9 mil but all salary or very little bonus money. Maybe we front load our deal as much as allowed, and make it max bonus money, i.e. buyout proof. Miller gets way more money early, which is awesome for him and his investment portfolio. He also might be happy to go 8 to lower the AAV into the 7's. Not much chance anyone gives him 4 mil per season at 37 so what does he care? he got most of his money in the first 3 years of his deal. You can't just go off AAV alone. Edited April 28, 2022 by JM_ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, D.B Cooper said: All of this. He could legit get 9.5x7 in free agency right now. 8.5-9 per year would be a discount. 7.5 isn’t happening For a 8 year deal, that’s 16mill he just turned down. About 0% chance that happens. Hahah July 2023, when JT is a UFA, which team (be specific) will offer him 9.5 x 7? IMO JT is looking at a 6 year deal 2023 as a UFA and he's not getting more than 8 too. So he's looking at a 48 mil total. We will off him this summer a 60 million total deal. The cap will depend on the term we decide is best for our club. Likely 8.5x7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, Alflives said: We will off him this summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eeeeergh Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, D.B Cooper said: All of this. He could legit get 9.5x7 in free agency right now. 8.5-9 per year would be a discount. 7.5 isn’t happening For a 8 year deal, that’s 16mill he just turned down. About 0% chance that happens. Hahah Yep, agreed. I think he gets multiple 9-9.5m$ offers from other teams for somewhere between 6-7 years, probably on a frontloaded contract. It'd be teams that are expecting to have a contention window of the next 3 years, then they'll just suffer for 1-2 years w/ a bad contract, and potentially buyout the last year if it looks really bad. Teams offering a long term deal and mortgaging their future, in order to win in a 2-3 year window, is totally a legitimate strategy. Who knows, if we end up with some luck and Kuzmenko signs with us and plays like a top-6 forward, Podz breaks out, Hogs overcomes his sophmore slump, Martin plays like a 1B, and we somehow manage to totally revamp the defence.. we might be in that position next year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 $8.75 x 6 years Yikes, imagine that salary tied up if Miller ever declines to a bottom 6 player. He better be good for a long time, and bring VAN a Cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, eeeeergh said: Yep, agreed. I think he gets multiple 9-9.5m$ offers from other teams for somewhere between 6-7 years, probably on a frontloaded contract. It'd be teams that are expecting to have a contention window of the next 3 years, then they'll just suffer for 1-2 years w/ a bad contract, and potentially buyout the last year if it looks really bad. Teams offering a long term deal and mortgaging their future, in order to win in a 2-3 year window, is totally a legitimate strategy. Who knows, if we end up with some luck and Kuzmenko signs with us and plays like a top-6 forward, Podz breaks out, Hogs overcomes his sophmore slump, Martin plays like a 1B, and we somehow manage to totally revamp the defence.. we might be in that position next year lol. Which teams will offer JT that kind of money next summer when he's 30? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NUCKER67 said: $8.75 x 6 years Yikes, imagine that salary tied up if Miller ever declines to a bottom 6 player. He better be good for a long time, and bring VAN a Cup. If the total dollars are as you suggest, about 52 mil, then we will likley go seven years to drop the yearly cap to 7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Alflives said: Which teams will offer JT that kind of money next summer when he's 30? If he has another 90+ point season… a lot of teams. There are teams that are in contention now and know they will be rebuilding in 3 years. Cap hits won’t matter at that point when he is a bad value. We aren’t that team, our other stars will be just starting their prime when he is likely to decline. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.B Cooper Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 1 minute ago, JM_ said: I'm not arguing, just pointing out that terms matter. One team might offer 9 mil but all salary or very little bonus money. Maybe we front load our deal as much as allowed, and make it max bonus money, i.e. buyout proof. Miller gets way more money early, which is awesome for him and his investment portfolio. He also might be happy to go 8 to lower the AAV into the 7's. Not much chance anyone gives him 4 mil per season at 37 so what does he care? he got most of his money in the first 3 years of his deal. You can't just go off AAV alone. They will structure it in a way where he DOES get large guaranteed bonuses AND more than the 7 you for some silly reason think is possible. What reason would they not negotiate the best possible deal for him? Lol. They guy is at 97 points in 78 games ffs. Lol! He could get 10 mill in free agency. This isn’t Brock Boeser. He puts up super star points while being our heart and soul. Plays wing and center. PP. PK. But no. You’re right. The only way he gets any kind of decent contract with a nice bonus structure is if he takes off around 3 mill annually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby James Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 1 hour ago, eeeeergh said: Tbh I dont think a team-friendly contract is very likely. Most top tier players fall in love with the city and team that they play for, but they are also professionals of their craft, and know that they deserve to be paid as such. If the decision is between Vancouver and another playoff team (like the Rags), but another team is willing to pay 2m+ more/year, and on a longer term, I seriously doubt any player is going to turn down that extra 10m$+. 10 million dollars is an insane amount of money, and probably has more impact on that player's life/their kids/grandkids lives, than whether they play for vancouver vs the rags. We might get a 300-500k hometown discount, but even that would probably have to come with sweeteners in the form of bonus money or a longer term deal or something. Tldr: if we want to keep our top players, we have to pay them market value. Yup I don't disagree with what you said. I think some players go for team friendly deals, but most will want to maximize their money while they can. There is nothing wrong with that and I wish JT all the best. But 9.5+ in Vancouver for 6-8 years isn't the right fit for our team and we should move him then. 1 hour ago, D.B Cooper said: All of this. He could legit get 9.5x7 in free agency right now. 8.5-9 per year would be a discount. 7.5 isn’t happening For a 8 year deal, that’s 16mill he just turned down. About 0% chance that happens. Hahah You asked earlier as well if I would leave millions on the table if I knew I could get it elsewhere. I dunno if I can honestly answer that as I'm not a professional athlete, but likely no I would take the money. But that comes with a caveat...am I signing this big contract on a contender or somewhere like Arizona, Ottawa, Columbus and do I care about winning a Stanley cup? Cause sure if Miller is willing to sign anywhere he will get 9+ mil and 7 years of term from a couple spots, but most contenders won't be able to afford that without moving a big contract they already have, so you go to a team that has lots of cap space and you can run out your career with if you're lucky 1 or 2 playoff appearances and he will likely start to decline around 34 or so. This organization needs to prioritize winning and winning in the long term. Demko, Hughes and Peaty are the core and they will all get raises on their next contracts. Currently we are a fringe playoff team I'd say with some big holes to fill (looking at your defense and depth scoring). That means either this group decides they want to win together, so they sign contracts where everyone takes a little less to be competitive as well as add in a couple missing pieces or we gotta move some forwards and JT along with either Boeser or Garland are the likely targets to get moved out. Miller (and our other main players) need to accept if you want to win the team needs to improve and that means spending money on other players. We are already not good enough and Miller has almost 100 points this year and we have 3(!) - 30 goal scores this year and we still missed the playoffs and even if we snuck in, our team doesn't stack up against most others (THAT'S INSANE). So if Miller is going to say hey I want to win in Vancouver, but I'll need 4-5 million more PER year and 7-8 years of term, that to me is just unrealistic and as the kids hit their prime we could be stuck to a 34 year old making 9-10 mil who isn't playing close to that pay check anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 22 minutes ago, D.B Cooper said: They will structure it in a way where he DOES get large guaranteed bonuses AND more than the 7 you for some silly reason think is possible. What reason would they not negotiate the best possible deal for him? Lol. They guy is at 97 points in 78 games ffs. Lol! He could get 10 mill in free agency. This isn’t Brock Boeser. He puts up super star points while being our heart and soul. Plays wing and center. PP. PK. But no. You’re right. The only way he gets any kind of decent contract with a nice bonus structure is if he takes off around 3 mill annually. 10 mil eh? I guess we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 I don't get why people think other teams will give him term and dollars. The logic goes... he's too old we should get rid of him because other teams will give him a lot in free agency. Why? Why would any other team give him what we wont? mortgage their future I suppose but we are kinda in that same boat. We have a strong core, JT included. Pay up for a push for the cup ,or hope we trade/develop a dream prospect group to support the core....and quick. Tough decision but a bird in the hand is worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 45 minutes ago, Provost said: If he has another 90+ point season… a lot of teams. There are teams that are in contention now and know they will be rebuilding in 3 years. Cap hits won’t matter at that point when he is a bad value. We aren’t that team, our other stars will be just starting their prime when he is likely to decline. Which teams exactly? in this flat cap era who will do that for a 30 year old UFA winger/centre that isn’t their own guy? JT would be one the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 26 minutes ago, D.B Cooper said: They will structure it in a way where he DOES get large guaranteed bonuses AND more than the 7 you for some silly reason think is possible. What reason would they not negotiate the best possible deal for him? Lol. They guy is at 97 points in 78 games ffs. Lol! He could get 10 mill in free agency. This isn’t Brock Boeser. He puts up super star points while being our heart and soul. Plays wing and center. PP. PK. But no. You’re right. The only way he gets any kind of decent contract with a nice bonus structure is if he takes off around 3 mill annually. Which team will offer JT summer 2023 over 64 mil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crabcakes Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 I think he's back next year. Without a new contract. We'll see what they think around the trade deadline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 So, say they agree on $9 x 5 for Miller and $6.5 x 6 for Horvat Miller Pettersson Horvat ...down the middle. What are the wingers going to look like next season? I'm going to guess Boeser will be qualified, re-signed and traded. He's too expensive. I believe they'll keep Garland, Lockwood, Podkolzin, Chiasson, Highmore, but only two of those are Top 6. Due to cap, could the Canucks be looking at players like Chytil, Zacha or Bastian? Cheaper, younger, bigger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said: So, say they agree on $9 x 5 for Miller and $6.5 x 6 for Horvat Miller Pettersson Horvat ...down the middle. What are the wingers going to look like next season? I'm going to guess Boeser will be qualified, re-signed and traded. He's too expensive. I believe they'll keep Garland, Lockwood, Podkolzin, Chiasson, Highmore, but only two of those are Top 6. Due to cap, could the Canucks be looking at players like Chytil, Zacha or Bastian? Cheaper, younger, bigger 9x5 is only 45 mil. Miller will be signing a contract closer to 60-65 mil. The team will pick the term. 8.75 x 7? 8.1 x 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Crabcakes said: I think he's back next year. Without a new contract. We'll see what they think around the trade deadline That's asking for a season long media/fanbase headache, I don't see either side wanting that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Alflives said: 9x5 is only 45 mil. Miller will be signing a contract closer to 60-65 mil. The team will pick the term. 8.75 x 7? 8.1 x 8? ouch! that term Do they go crazy and sign him for $10 x 6? That's still cheaper than 3 of TOR's players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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