[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[NucknAsia]

3 minutes ago, Drakrami said:

You are way overcomplicating things. If we have the #2 pick for example, we must draft Slafkovsky. Drafting the player most hockey experts / mock draft agrees on. Just like 2016 the only obvious choice at #5 was Tkachuk. 2014 draft at #6 there was no obvious choice and Virtanen looked pretty good at the time, to be honest. 

Most hockey experts? Who - media?

Have you seen the 32 team draft lists? 

 

Tkatchuk has nothing to do with the RD in this draft - this is a red herring argument

Edited May 31, 2022 by NucknAsia

[Elias Pettersson]

There is a scenario where we keep Miller.  If that wasn't the case then they wouldn't be talking to him about an extension.

 

Assets can be acquired via other avenues.  The most expensive assets to acquire we already have, a 1C in Petey, a 1D in Hughes and a Vezina trophy goalie in Demko.  Getting wingers is not expensive.  Getting depth players is not expensive.  The only 2 positions that really need upgrading and would be somewhat expensive are a RHD to play with Hughes and a 3C.  If JR/PA were able to get rid of some of the deadweight then it's possible these players could be acquired via free agency.  Josh Manson and Nicolas Paul are 2 examples.

 

The biggest challenge right now is opening up cap space.  If that can be done then certainly we can look at keeping Miller if he is willing to sign a reasonable extension.  If cap space cannot be opened up then Miller most likely will be traded, and it may not be for as much as we think.

[Mustard Tiger]

It crazy how many wear horse blinders here.

 

"Nobody will trade for him during his last year under contract "

 

Oh right, just like how the blue jackets didn't trade Seth Jones in the exact same situation and get a better dman PLUS 2 firsts

 

" You can't sign a guy to a long term high dollar deal! It will handcuff the team "

 

Well, I'm not sure how to tell you this. But 5 seconds on cap friendly will show every team in the playoffs had those types of signing, With the best teams having multiple of them lol

[MeanSeanBean]

57 minutes ago, Me_ said:

Do YOU? have the actual numbers? No one does. The dude isn’t signed beyond next year. All of it is speculation. 
 

But go ahead and groupwish the player away.

 

Why play the game if you have a chance to lose. May as well quit before the results are in.

It’s the most asinine disease manifesting with the Vancouver da base; giving up before the race even starts.

Well, as my career I litterally work with athletes so I have significantly more first hand experience then the average person. On top of that there is a number of studies that have been done that all lead to the same conclusion of a significant drop off in the overwhelming majority of players after 30 or so. So again, I ask why in your example you say 26, not 30 which will be Miller's actual age when a next contract starts and happens to like up the the average age players tend to start decreasing in production.

 

But if we want to ignore sports science I guess all we can do is speculate like you say.

 

People not wanting to overpay an aging player isn't giving up. The fact that you think so just means your so dead set on your opinion (which isn't shared by the majority of fans, media, and seemingly our management) that you assume everyone has given up because they don't share your opinion to me is the real problem with this fan base. It's the loud toxic few point the finger, not the majority of the fanbase.

 

What's wild is you constantly point the finger as the rest of the fan base as the problem just because they don't share your opinion. Your opinion on Miller isn't problematic (though personally sounds very short sighted to me), you are. I'm only calling you out on this because you started it by trying to call out everyone else.

[Warhippy]

7 minutes ago, rekker said:

I don't agree. You have to factor in age, and a weak prospect pool. I remember when St Louis traded off Stastny before they went on a cup run. Quality prospects are severely lacking in the Canucks organization. Especially young D.

Colorado did it with Duchene/O'Reilly

Tampa did it with St Louis

Chicago did it twice with half their roster

Pittsburgh did it

LA did it

 

These are teams that maximized value on assets and rebuilt via the return in traded vets or the return in picks/prospects.  Knowing when to pull the trigger is essential.  Just imagine Miller goes on to have a meager 65 point season.  Or we keep him and he or horvat or demko get hurt and he Tavres'/Bobrovskys'/Panarins' us and walks for nothing.

 

We're not better for sure and in fact are worse for not ensuring we got the return on that asset.

[Alflives]

35 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

You didn't answer the question.

 

If we compete next year and fail to make the playoffs or bounce in the first round and Miller walks for nothing.  What would you say?

 

I also might add I can show you a number of teams who did just what you said within reason regarding picking highly and making the playoffs to win it all a short time later.  I might also point out that you're predicating your playoff assumption and assurance that we will see beast mode miller horvat AND demko which could very easily not happen

 

So again, if we lose miller for nothing after either missing the playoffs or after bouncing in the 1st/2nd round.  What would you say?

I'd say playing Miller next season without him having an extension, would mean we have one kick at the playoff can.  Whereas if we trade him this summer, we will likely lost next season's kick at the playoff can, but will get several kicks over the following seasons.  Depending, of course, on the return JR is able to get for Miller.

[Elias Pettersson]

2 minutes ago, Mustard Tiger said:

It crazy how many wear horse blinders here.

 

"Nobody will trade for him during his last year under contract "

 

Oh right, just like how the blue jackets didn't trade Seth Jones in the exact same situation and get a better dman PLUS 2 firsts

 

" You can't sign a guy to a long term high dollar deal! It will handcuff the team "

 

Well, I'm not sure how to tell you this. But 5 seconds on cap friendly will show every team in the playoffs had those types of signing, With the best teams having multiple of them lol

Yeah no kidding.  The Rangers just signed Zibanejad to a contract similar to what Miller may get and he's almost the same age.  Having a fantastic playoffs.  But if we do it it's terrible cap management.  But of course the argument will be the Rangers already are in their window and have lots of young talent.  Well we will never get to our window if we simply trade our best players.  There is no guarantee that the picks or prospects we get from a Miller trade will even play in the NHL.

 

That's why I was proposing a Miller for Lafreniere type deal.  At least you know you will get a quality NHL player in return...

[NucknAsia]

13 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

There is a scenario where we keep Miller.  If that wasn't the case then they wouldn't be talking to him about an extension.

 

Assets can be acquired via other avenues.  The most expensive assets to acquire we already have, a 1C in Petey, a 1D in Hughes and a Vezina trophy goalie in Demko.  Getting wingers is not expensive.  Getting depth players is not expensive.  The only 2 positions that really need upgrading and would be somewhat expensive are a RHD to play with Hughes and a 3C.  If JR/PA were able to get rid of some of the deadweight then it's possible these players could be acquired via free agency.  Josh Manson and Nicolas Paul are 2 examples.

 

The biggest challenge right now is opening up cap space.  If that can be done then certainly we can look at keeping Miller if he is willing to sign a reasonable extension.  If cap space cannot be opened up then Miller most likely will be traded, and it may not be for as much as we think.

these are fair points BUT, it sounds like JR is like Lou Lamorello, in that they believe to be competitive you need to have an "internal cap", because if you start paying players their max ufa value, you will never ice a team that can contend.

 

Basically, players need to be take "somewhat team friendly contracts" to enable the team to pay for the depth you need to win. 

 

The idea being, everybody takes a bit less, so everyone can win.

 

It appears that Miller is not willing to take a discount, his agent said that already. Whereas the language around Bo seems to be that Bo is willing to play within that internal cap to stay.

 

I think the reality is we cannot really afford Miller - not from a cap perspective, but what the trickle down effects are for Alvin and JR to bring in the rest of the players required. We need more than Manson and Paul, and you also need to think forward for when players like Petey, Podz, Demko, re-up.

 

Just like Kesler, Burrows, even the twins took less, we need the same from our players to be as good or better. Else you end up like Toronto. Top heavy without the ability to fill out the team.

Edited May 31, 2022 by NucknAsia

[NucknAsia]

7 minutes ago, Mustard Tiger said:

It crazy how many wear horse blinders here.

 

"Nobody will trade for him during his last year under contract "

 

Oh right, just like how the blue jackets didn't trade Seth Jones in the exact same situation and get a better dman PLUS 2 firsts

 

" You can't sign a guy to a long term high dollar deal! It will handcuff the team "

 

Well, I'm not sure how to tell you this. But 5 seconds on cap friendly will show every team in the playoffs had those types of signing, With the best teams having multiple of them lol

I'm sure those same fans were screaming about "asset management" in the past lol

[Alflives]

8 minutes ago, Mustard Tiger said:

It crazy how many wear horse blinders here.

 

"Nobody will trade for him during his last year under contract "

 

Oh right, just like how the blue jackets didn't trade Seth Jones in the exact same situation and get a better dman PLUS 2 firsts

 

" You can't sign a guy to a long term high dollar deal! It will handcuff the team "

 

Well, I'm not sure how to tell you this. But 5 seconds on cap friendly will show every team in the playoffs had those types of signing, With the best teams having multiple of them lol

Seth Jones is younger and a right shot D.  He's not a comparable to Miller.

[Coconuts]

6 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Colorado did it with Duchene/O'Reilly

Tampa did it with St Louis

Chicago did it twice with half their roster

Pittsburgh did it

LA did it

 

These are teams that maximized value on assets and rebuilt via the return in traded vets or the return in picks/prospects.  Knowing when to pull the trigger is essential.  Just imagine Miller goes on to have a meager 65 point season.  Or we keep him and he or horvat or demko get hurt and he Tavres'/Bobrovskys'/Panarins' us and walks for nothing.

 

We're not better for sure and in fact are worse for not ensuring we got the return on that asset.

Knowing when to pull the trigger, and being willing to do so, is huge. I mean, that's how we got Miller in the first place. Tampa cleared out cap and got an asset for a player they didn't really need, as demonstrated by the cups they won shortly after. Sure, some folks will paint it out as our previous management making a savvy acquisition, but Tampa also made the call to get value for a player they didn't need and didn't have room for. 

 

Management cannot afford the sentimentality of the fanbase, it's how you get stuck spinning your wheels in mediocrity.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Coconuts

[NucknAsia]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yeah no kidding.  The Rangers just signed Zibanejad to a contract similar to what Miller may get and he's almost the same age.  Having a fantastic playoffs.  But if we do it it's terrible cap management.  But of course the argument will be the Rangers already are in their window and have lots of young talent.  Well we will never get to our window if we simply trade our best players.  There is no guarantee that the picks or prospects we get from a Miller trade will even play in the NHL.

 

That's why I was proposing a Miller for Lafreniere type deal.  At least you know you will get a quality NHL player in return...

We are not in the same position as the Rangers. The rangers did a fine job of stockpiling picks, and drafting well so they could afford to sign a player like that and clearly they are alot close to a cup than we are. So its not an apples to apples comparison. On your latter point I agree, we cannot be trading a top 10 player, great center ice man, our best player, 99 pts for only futures.

Alvin and JR passed on Chytl, Lundqvuist and a first. Looking at the playoffs it seems it was a better deal than envisioned but they are showing they comprehend his value to us and another franchise.

 

We do need a young player back who's proven he can play in the NHL and has high upside

We do need a solid RD back

And the first is a must.

[Elias Pettersson]

4 minutes ago, NucknAsia said:

these are fair points BUT, it sounds like JR is like Lou Lamorello, in that they believe to be competitive you need to have an "internal cap", because if you start paying players their max ufa value, you will never ice a team that can contend. Basically, players need to be take somewhat team friendly contracts to enable the team to pay for the depth you need to win. 

 

Idea being, every body takes a bit less, so everyone can win. It appears, Miller is not willing to take a discount, his agent said that already, whereas the language around Bo, seems to be Bo is willing to play within that internal cap to stay. I think the reality is we cannot really afford Miller - not from a cap perspective, but what the trickle down effects are for Alvin and JR to bring in the rest of the players required. We need more than Manson and Paul, and you also need to think forward for when players like Petey, Podz, Demko, re-up.

Yes, I do agree that BO most likely will take a better team friendly deal than Miller as he has history here, he's our captain, was drafted by Vancouver and got married here and has a family.  Miller doesn't have the same bond or history to this team.  I'm pretty sure Horvat is staying, especially after JR's comments about him.  Miller I think is 50/50.  You can make an argument for both sides with Miller and both arguments have validity.  The posters who are adamant that he must be traded or that he must stay are being biased on both sides and don't want to listen to the other argument.

 

I'm not concerned with future extensions to our star players as that always has a way of working itself out, contracts expire and the cap goes up.  It will be an interesting summer for sure.

[MeanSeanBean]

13 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yeah no kidding.  The Rangers just signed Zibanejad to a contract similar to what Miller may get and he's almost the same age.  Having a fantastic playoffs.  But if we do it it's terrible cap management.  But of course the argument will be the Rangers already are in their window and have lots of young talent.  Well we will never get to our window if we simply trade our best players.  There is no guarantee that the picks or prospects we get from a Miller trade will even play in the NHL.

 

That's why I was proposing a Miller for Lafreniere type deal.  At least you know you will get a quality NHL player in return...

I mean, the majority didn't like this signing either though and assumed it was going to be the same type of overpayment as Miller would be.

 

It

[c00kies]

23 minutes ago, Drakrami said:

You are way overcomplicating things. If we have the #2 pick for example, we must draft Slafkovsky. Drafting the player most hockey experts / mock draft agrees on. Just like 2016 the only obvious choice at #5 was Tkachuk. 2014 draft at #6 there was no obvious choice and Virtanen looked pretty good at the time, to be honest. 

The problem wasn't passing on drafting Tkachuk, but rather not drafting the best defenseman. If we had Sergachev, most people wouldn't care that we passed up on Tkachuk as the two players would be comparable value.

 

I was okay grabbing the first d-man of the draft over Tkachuk at the time, but we missed on the pick, which means the gamble didn't pay off. Tkachuk was the safe player to draft though, so it sucks to see the easy play ignored.

[Elias Pettersson]

7 minutes ago, NucknAsia said:

We are not in the same position as the Rangers. The rangers did a fine job of stockpiling picks, and drafting well so they could afford to sign a player like that and clearly they are alot close to a cup than we are. So its not an apples to apples comparison. On your latter point I agree, we cannot be trading a top 10 player, great center ice man, our best player, 99 pts for only futures.

Alvin and JR passed on Chytl, Lundqvuist and a first. Looking at the playoffs it seems it was a better deal than envisioned but they are showing they comprehend his value to us and another franchise.

 

We do need a young player back who's proven he can play in the NHL and has high upside

We do need a solid RD back

And the first is a must.

Yes, the Rangers are currently in their window, we are not.  They have done a good job in drafting but they also had some high picks as well (Lareniere, Kakko), and they also got lucky with Adam Fox who basically forced his way onto the team.

 

The Rangers had the first overall pick not that long ago, and also the second overall pick, so their window only opened up recently.  I don't see a scenario where we get those high picks and pick up a guy like Adam Fox in free agency, so we will have to make do with what we have plus whatever we can get if Miller is traded.

 

Like I said earlier our main expensive pieces are in place.  We have our Shesterkin, our Fox and our Zibanejad.  They have Panarin and we have Miller.  The Rangers have Trouba and some better depth.  If you go down the list player for player we are probably 4-5 guys short of what they have.  Opening up cap space will be huge to acquire those missing pieces.  Any Miller trade needs to being back a legit bonafide NHL player.  Picks and prospects for Miller will be a risky move unless we compensate by signing a big name free agent to compensate.

[rekker]

26 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Colorado did it with Duchene/O'Reilly

Tampa did it with St Louis

Chicago did it twice with half their roster

Pittsburgh did it

LA did it

 

These are teams that maximized value on assets and rebuilt via the return in traded vets or the return in picks/prospects.  Knowing when to pull the trigger is essential.  Just imagine Miller goes on to have a meager 65 point season.  Or we keep him and he or horvat or demko get hurt and he Tavres'/Bobrovskys'/Panarins' us and walks for nothing.

 

We're not better for sure and in fact are worse for not ensuring we got the return on that asset.

Very well said WH. 

[Coconuts]

3 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yes, the Rangers are currently in their window, we are not.  They have done a good job in drafting but they also had some high picks as well (Lareniere, Kakko), and they also got lucky with Adam Fox who basically forced his way onto the team.

 

The Rangers had the first overall pick not that long ago, and also the second overall pick, so their window only opened up recently.  I don't see a scenario where we get those high picks and pick up a guy like Adam Fox in free agency, so we will have to make do with what we have plus whatever we can get if Miller is traded.

 

Like I said earlier our main expensive pieces are in place.  We have our Shesterkin, our Fox and our Zibanejad.  They have Panarin and we have Miller.  The Rangers have Trouba and some better depth.  If you go down the list player for player we are probably 4-5 guys short of what they have.  Opening up cap space will be huge to acquire those missing pieces.  Any Miller trade needs to being back a legit bonafide NHL player.  Picks and prospects for Miller will be a risky move unless we compensate by signing a big name free agent to compensate.

Depends on the timeline envisioned by management, this was never likely going to be a single season turnaround. We'd be better served chasing a big fish closer to contention imo, chasing big ticket ufa's sooner than later would likely just be us trying to rush things again. Which is how we wound up doing the OEL/Garland trade instead of waiting a single season for massive cap flex.

[Elias Pettersson]

9 minutes ago, Shayster007 said:

I mean, the majority didn't like this signing either though and assumed it was going to be the same type of overpayment as Miller would be.

 

It

For sure, I get that alot of people don't want to sign 29 year old players to long term expensive extensions.  It is a risk, no question and I don't think anyone can say that it's not.

 

However, pretty much every team does it to some extent, most of the top teams in the NHL have at least one player signed to a long term extension well into their 30's.  It's unavoidable to be honest.  You want to reward your star players, not just treat them like cattle and as soon as they hit 29 years old they are out the window.  Lots of teams in this year's playoffs were playing with guys in their 30's making over $8 million a year.

[rekker]

9 minutes ago, c00kies said:

The problem wasn't passing on drafting Tkachuk, but rather not drafting the best defenseman. If we had Sergachev, most people wouldn't care that we passed up on Tkachuk as the two players would be comparable value.

 

I was okay grabbing the first d-man of the draft over Tkachuk at the time, but we missed on the pick, which means the gamble didn't pay off. Tkachuk was the safe player to draft though, so it sucks to see the easy play ignored.

Sergachev, Chychrun, McAvoy were there, and Canucks pick a kid who can't even get a sun tan playing in Florida. Brutal. I remember watching OJ at the young guns in Penticton and being so underwhelmed. I tried to root for the kid, but he lost me with the Starfish impression at training camp.