[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[DrJockitch]

7 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I think you hit the reality of it. Sure there have been some signings but that has as many ? As not. If the focus isn’t at 1RD then this off season is a miss. IMHO A Miller trade brings that result. Still hoping that is the case. Worrying about the team that is iced in October is fun but it is more important about the team iced in the fall of 2025. We don’t want a repeat of Calgary so the young core has to see a progression towards serious CUP contention. 

Should have been first priority last year and we brought in LD and winger.  
Should have been priority this year and brought in winger as big ticket item. 

‘Organizational strength is wing and LD and we keep adding wings and LD. 
‘Only so many assets to burn and we keep burning them to re-enforce our strengths not bolster our weaknesses. 

[BC_Hawk]

4 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Should have been first priority last year and we brought in LD and winger.  
Should have been priority this year and brought in winger as big ticket item. 

‘Organizational strength is wing and LD and we keep adding wings and LD. 
‘Only so many assets to burn and we keep burning them to re-enforce our strengths not bolster our weaknesses. 

You got to remember we looked decent on paper until Hamonic started playing his little games. IF Hamonic were just a normal dude that showed up to camp and played out his contract, our rightside wouldn't be all that bad now. The problem is he wasn't, and IMHO it cost us a ton of games early in 2021.

 

Once again, we arent looking for the second coming of Paul Coffee here, we are just looking for a defensive defenseman to play top 4 minutes with Hughes or OEL.

Edited July 21, 2022 by BC_Hawk

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, Wanless said:

He faced on average 30.7 shots per game

 

shesterkin face 30.6

 

grubauer 30.7

 

vaseleski 29.8

Quality of shot though.  We were worst for giving up the high danger chances, especially the cross ice plays where the goalie has to go across his crease.  And we were horrible defending those off the rush.  Better systems will help, and having Mikheyev will help too.  

[BC_Hawk]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Quality of shot though.  We were worst for giving up the high danger chances, especially the cross ice plays where the goalie has to go across his crease.  And we were horrible defending those off the rush.  Better systems will help, and having Mikheyev will help too.  

Exactly; they werent outside perimeter stuff. They were bonifide chances, sometimes requiring scorpion moves!

[Gurn]

15 minutes ago, BC_Hawk said:

2025...if that is the case, Petterson will walk in FA; he stated he wants to win. We have a good team right now that requires some tweaks; why not give them a run in 2022??

Why would the team allow E.P. to get to free agency?

Same thing with Bo and J.T.; either they sign or get traded, preferably/hopefully/better be before the season begins.

 

[BC_Hawk]

2 minutes ago, gurn said:

Why would the team allow E.P. to get to free agency?

Same thing with Bo and J.T.; either they sign or get traded, preferably/hopefully/better be before the season begins.

 

I bet Calgary said the same thing about JG and MT.......

Edited July 21, 2022 by BC_Hawk

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Quality of shot though.  We were worst for giving up the high danger chances, especially the cross ice plays where the goalie has to go across his crease.  And we were horrible defending those off the rush.  Better systems will help, and having Mikheyev will help too.  

we were? according to hockey reference we were above league average on this stat. https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VAN/

 

18th in the league according to natural stat trick (https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php).

 

So not great, but not worst. Middling. 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, JM_ said:

we were? according to hockey reference we were above league average on this stat. https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VAN/

 

18th in the league according to natural stat trick (https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php).

 

So not great, but not worst. Middling. 

Alf is just happy Benning is gone!  Soon back to the winning ways of the Gillis era!  

[mll]

4 minutes ago, JM_ said:

we were? according to hockey reference we were above league average on this stat. https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VAN/

 

18th in the league according to natural stat trick (https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php).

 

So not great, but not worst. Middling. 

Those stats are flawed.  Those models only have shot location and can't capture pre-shot movements or screens.  Several teams have confirmed that their own expected goal models are significantly different than public models.

 

A shot off a cross-ice pass is significantly more dangerous than one  that isn't but they will account for either shot the same way if they have the same coordinates.  Idem for shots through a screen or without one.

 

 

[JM_]

1 minute ago, mll said:

Those stats are flawed.  Those models only have shot location and can't capture pre-shot movements or screens.  Several teams have confirmed that their own expected goal models are significantly different than public models.

 

A shot off a cross-ice pass is significantly more dangerous than one  that isn't but they will account for either shot the same way if they have the same coordinates.  Idem for shots through a screen or without one.

 

 

well, I don't have access to those  

 

is there a more accurate model for the quality of shot Demko faced that we can see publicly? 

[Gurn]

13 minutes ago, BC_Hawk said:

I bet Calgary said the same thing about JG and MT.......

Which is why I prefer the trades get done in the off season before the deal runs out.

[MeanSeanBean]

55 minutes ago, Timråfan said:

Alright, but if no new top 4 D comes before next season, what to do?

Run it as is if we can't fix it. But, I'm also totally cool with trying real hard, but taking a small step back if it's better for the long term benefit of the team. I think we should be trading Miller and not committing to an aging asset who could very well be overpayed. If we trade him, our team even with the new additions will be the same or slightly worse then last year, and I'm ok with that.

 

I actually don't hate your suggested line up. OEL is an elite defensemen, and I think he can change roles mid career. He showed that last year playing the more responsible role with Myers. I don't think Myers has the ability. I think we run Hughes with OEL. Dermott and Myers can be the 2nd pair like you suggested, but I definitely don't think Myers is able to tighten up defensively enough to become a stay at home type D. Like Mama said, you gotta let that boy play some rock and roll. Schenn can play with Rathbone on the 3rd pair and shelter him instead of Hughes.

 

All that being said, that is still a bellow average NHL defense. But, I'm cool with that. This team isn't in the position to win now. We have to be setting ourselves up for our window in about 2 years time. We have time to fix the D.

[erkayloomeh]

1 minute ago, gurn said:

Which is why I prefer the trades get done in the off season before the deal runs out.

That shouldn't be a preference it should be a must. If you have a pending Ufa player (other than players that have little worth) you need to assess whether or not your able to resign them in July. Just like they are having discussions with JT now.  

If you determine you aren't going to be able to come to terms then they go on the block regardless of your playoff position.  

Losing good players for nothing shouldn't be an option. 

[mll]

1 minute ago, JM_ said:

well, I don't have access to those  

 

is there a more accurate model for the quality of shot Demko faced that we can see publicly? 

Posted something in the thread you created on the main board about the defence&stats - the CSA numbers shows that he was one of the best goalies in the league per their model.  They capture the whole context of the play that leads to the shot on net and have the historical conversion rate of all those plays.  There's also a clip by Woodley giving some more info.

 

The divisional season Vancouver had probably the worse defensive numbers in the league per Sportlogiq - before even their Covid outbreak.  The season before that they were already one of the worse at defending rush chances.  Was under Green and don't have the numbers for this past season.  Kelly who uses Sportlogiq (used notably by Tampa) was highlighting the Canucks' struggles at defending the rush the past few seasons.  Not sure where they rank under Boudreau.

 

 

[Gawdzukes]

11 minutes ago, Wanless said:

He faced on average 30.7 shots per game

 

shesterkin face 30.6

 

grubauer 30.7

 

vaseleski 29.8

And?

 

I guess that clears that up, give us the Cup. 

 

Except hat gives you zero context like shot quality and I'll tell you right now they don't capture that in a stat except for privatized in house data collection by individual hockey teams. So we as normal citizens don't have access to them. They collect a dumbed down version in advanced statistics called high danger chances but it's simplistic, dumbed down, and useless.

 

The last time I checked having similar shot metrics to good teams doesn't just make you a good team, or make your defence good, or have anything to do with winning hockey games. 15 of the top teams were within 2 shots of each other, with 6 more being 3 less and TB actually giving up a full 2 less shots per game than the Nucks.

[BC_Hawk]

Just now, erkayloomeh said:

That shouldn't be a preference it should be a must. If you have a pending Ufa player (other than players that have little worth) you need to assess whether or not your able to resign them in July. Just like they are having discussions with JT now.  

If you determine you aren't going to be able to come to terms then they go on the block regardless of your playoff position.  

Losing good players for nothing shouldn't be an option. 

TDL is a great way to maximize draft returns on stacked teams that don't have cap space in offseason. I see Miller as an absolute gem at that time of year; he is a Playoff type guy.

 

And don't fool yourself; MT became unsignable once JG left

[stawns]

11 minutes ago, gurn said:

Which is why I prefer the trades get done in the off season before the deal runs out.

Not to mention it's nice to start a season fresh, with a set line up.  Going into the season with a situation hanging over the team isn't great.

[DrJockitch]

40 minutes ago, BC_Hawk said:

You got to remember we looked decent on paper until Hamonic started playing his little games. IF Hamonic were just a normal dude that showed up to camp and played out his contract, our rightside wouldn't be all that bad now. The problem is he wasn't, and IMHO it cost us a ton of games early in 2021.

 

Once again, we arent looking for the second coming of Paul Coffee here, we are just looking for a defensive defenseman to play top 4 minutes with Hughes or OEL.

I have been saying same thing. We don’t need and can’t really afford another elite defender on the right. We need a solid mobile defender to go with Q. 
‘That is the frustrating part is we don’t need to look for an elite guy but still don’t get anyone. 
‘I don’t go with any of the “if we had Bruce at the start’ if Hamonic wasn’t an idiot… type conjecture and assume we were good if it wasn’t for…whatever.  We weren’t world beaters after Bruce was there or after Hamonic got resolved. We were a decent, middle third team at that timed but it is easy to look at hot-streaks and say that’s who we are but ignores all the times we had a chance to take control of our fate and fell flat on our faces, often at home against bottom feeders. 

[Gawdzukes]

51 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I think you hit the reality of it. Sure there have been some signings but that has as many ? As not. If the focus isn’t at 1RD then this off season is a miss. IMHO A Miller trade brings that result. Still hoping that is the case. Worrying about the team that is iced in October is fun but it is more important about the team iced in the fall of 2025. We don’t want a repeat of Calgary so the young core has to see a progression towards serious CUP contention. 

Yeah they can do whatever they want with the forward group we're not improving much if any. Our problem is with the defence. It's simple. Absolutely all moves should be made with 2025 in mind. This year should be about enjoying Canucks hockey win or lose and looking to the future. I agree if they can't find a RD this offseason it's definitely on the opposite side of a win .

[mll]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Best way to clear the 5 mil needed for the raises for Miller and Bo (season’s cap starting in 2023/24) is to trade Garland for picks/prospects, and take no cap back.  Clear off his full (4.9).  

Might not be all that easy.  Vancouver's top objective this off-season was to create cap space.  The prospect pool is bare - if Garland was able to bring back picks/prospects to you'd think they would have already done it.  The system also has to be replenished and the earlier the better as they have to limit the gap to the Demko/Pettersson/Hughes timeline.   

 

Teams in general are having a hard time clearing cap space.  Pacioretty was still a top line player and only making 7M - they had to pay to move his contract.  Niederreiter only got 4M and on a 2 year deal.