Why The Avalanche Defensemen Score So Many Goals

[Rindiculous]

So recently, I've taken it upon myself to try and watch a good amount of Avalanche games because there are people on the internet constantly trying to stick it all down our throats that Cale Makar, Devon Toews, etc. are all the best defensemen in the world should finish 1/2 in Norris voting and there is absolutely no argument that can be made to counter that.

 

However, there is a problem with this argument as in it doesn't show the whole picture.  Yes, players like Makar and Toews are great players, Toews being an analytical darling posting two years in a row with a 60% expected goals and Makar not far behind while also being a goal scoring machine.  However, with Makar standing out in how many goals he is scoring this year I was wondering why does he score so many goals?  Watching Canucks games all season it be miffed me how any defenseman could be on a 30 goal clip.  Our defense is shooting from the point the whole time and our entire defense this season has 7 goals scored, just over half of Makar's season total alone.  I then decided to look at the rest of Colorado's defense core.  Almost their entire defense are goal scoring machines relative to how many goals defensemen usually score in their position.

 

Cale Makar is obviously the unprecedented one with 13 goals in 24 games.

 

However, Devon Toews has 5 goals in 17 games.

 

Bowen Byram has 4 goals in 14 games.

 

Even their defensive defensemen in Samuel Girard and Erik Johnson have 3 goals each in 26 and 28 games respectively.

 

So I'm just left thinking, does Colorado's entire defense core just have better shots than any defenseman on our defense core?  I couldn't believe that could be true so that is where I started watching games.  That is where I found the answer.

 

I've watched about 5 Avalanche games in the past month and right away I see the reason why the Avs defensemen score so many goals.  They have this one set play where a player like Rantanen or Mackinnon or Landeskog drive from the boards straight to the middle of the slot just inside the top of the circles.  From there it looks like they could shoot it however it could probably be blocked.  So what they do is drop it off in the open space behind them and there is always a defenseman there to take the pass whether it is Makar, Toews, Byram, Girard etc.  Therefore, 3 defenders all seem to get drawn in by the forward meanwhile the defenseman has all the open ice in the world to skate into the slot and snipe from the perfect sniping position unblocked.  Colorado runs this exact same play about 10 times a game and almost always score a goal, usually two, sometimes three from the exact same play in the same game.  It's a super effective play performed by three of the best play driving power forwards in the game.

 

So yes, Makar has a good shot to be able to score that many goals, however I realize now that while they are good, they are definitely being overrated as most of the play driving goes through the forwards.  We usually see the Canucks gain the zone by one of our defenders either passing it from our zone to center ice with a good breakout pass or in Quinn Hughes case sometimes go end to end entering the zone and then passing it off, however the majority of the time what happens for Colorado is that Makar or Toews make a short pass to a forward and then the three forwards are the sole players responsible for skating and passing among themselves to break into the zone.  It's a lot different than how the Canucks operate because it seems like that is mostly run through the defensemen while Colorado is mostly run through the forwards.

 

Now this thread is not to say that Makar or Toews are bad players.  They are very good.  Toews was one of the NYI best defensemen for 2 years when he played there, however Colorado plays a game where it runs a lot of it's playmaking through it's forwards and it's defenders seem to reap the benefits a lot getting a lot of chances to pick up points and score goals.  However, when a player like Tyson Barrie goes from scoring 14 goals a year with Colorado to only 16 goals in the three years since he left or for Toews to score just as many goals in Colorado as he did on the NYI in half as many games, this tells that Colorado runs a different, but very productive system that no other team in the NHL seems to run while showing how good their top forwards actually are to be able to do this game in and game out.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Rindiculous

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

[Ghostsof1915]

Are you basically saying Colorado's defenders are good because they have world class centre's? 

[khay]

1 hour ago, Rindiculous said:

So recently, I've taken it upon myself to try and watch a good amount of Avalanche games because there are people on the internet constantly trying to stick it all down our throats that Cale Makar, Devon Toews, etc. are all the best defensemen in the world should finish 1/2 in Norris voting and there is absolutely no argument that can be made to counter that.

 

However, there is a problem with this argument as in it doesn't show the whole picture.  Yes, players like Makar and Toews are great players, Toews being an analytical darling posting two years in a row with a 60% expected goals and Makar not far behind while also being a goal scoring machine.  However, with Makar standing out in how many goals he is scoring this year I was wondering why does he score so many goals?  Watching Canucks games all season it be miffed me how any defenseman could be on a 30 goal clip.  Our defense is shooting from the point the whole time and our entire defense this season has 7 goals scored, just over half of Makar's season total alone.  I then decided to look at the rest of Colorado's defense core.  Almost their entire defense are goal scoring machines relative to how many goals defensemen usually score in their position.

 

Cale Makar is obviously the unprecedented one with 13 goals in 24 games.

 

However, Devon Toews has 5 goals in 17 games.

 

Bowen Byram has 4 goals in 14 games.

 

Even their defensive defensemen in Samuel Girard and Erik Johnson have 3 goals each in 26 and 28 games respectively.

 

So I'm just left thinking, does Colorado's entire defense core just have better shots than any defenseman on our defense core?  I couldn't believe that could be true so that is where I started watching games.  That is where I found the answer.

 

I've watched about 5 Avalanche games in the past month and right away I see the reason why the Avs defensemen score so many goals.  They have this one set play where a player like Rantanen or Mackinnon or Landeskog drive from the boards straight to the middle of the slot just inside the top of the circles.  From there it looks like they could shoot it however it could probably be blocked.  So what they do is drop it off in the open space behind them and there is always a defenseman there to take the pass whether it is Makar, Toews, Byram, Girard etc.  Therefore, 3 defenders all seem to get drawn in by the forward meanwhile the defenseman has all the open ice in the world to skate into the slot and snipe from the perfect sniping position unblocked.  Colorado runs this exact same play about 10 times a game and almost always score a goal, usually two, sometimes three from the exact same play in the same game.  It's a super effective play performed by three of the best play driving power forwards in the game.

 

So yes, Makar has a good shot to be able to score that many goals, however I realize now that while they are good, they are definitely being overrated as most of the play driving goes through the forwards.  We usually see the Canucks gain the zone by one of our defenders either passing it from our zone to center ice with a good breakout pass or in Quinn Hughes case sometimes go end to end entering the zone and then passing it off, however the majority of the time what happens for Colorado is that Makar or Toews make a short pass to a forward and then the three forwards are the sole players responsible for skating and passing among themselves to break into the zone.  It's a lot different than how the Canucks operate because it seems like that is mostly run through the defensemen while Colorado is mostly run through the forwards.

 

Now this thread is not to say that Makar or Toews are bad players.  They are very good.  Toews was one of the NYI best defensemen for 2 years when he played there, however Colorado plays a game where it runs a lot of it's playmaking through it's forwards and it's defenders seem to reap the benefits a lot getting a lot of chances to pick up points and score goals.  However, when a player like Tyson Barrie goes from scoring 14 goals a year with Colorado to only 16 goals in the three years since he left or for Toews to score just as many goals in Colorado as he did on the NYI in half as many games, this tells that Colorado runs a different, but very productive system that no other team in the NHL seems to run while showing how good their top forwards actually are to be able to do this game in and game out.

Great effort and great post.

 

The analysis makes a lot of sense. Even the guys like Girard and Johnson have offensive acumen and a good shot to go with. Almost all of their defencemen have hard and/or accurate shot to finish the plays/shot opportunities generated by their world class forwards.

 

The player that I'm most surprised by is Devon Toews. I don't remember him being an offensive juggernaut with the Islanders and yet, here he is scoring above PPG pace??? Like WTF?

 

I don't quite see Toews on the same tier as guys like Makar and Hughes, there are very few defencemen like those two that can generate their own shots (IMO, Makar > Hughes in this aspect) and/or generate shooting opportunities for the teammates at will (Hughes > Makar at this). But Toews definitely have surprised me with his production to go along with his two way play. 

 

[AV.]

AValanche have my seal of approval.

[Hogs & Podz]

21 minutes ago, AV. said:

AValanche have my seal of approval.

Oh, oh... AV's just cursed the Avs!!

[mll]

They are shooting at an unsustainable high rate.

 

Makar is at over 19%,  Toews and Byram are over 14%.  It's more noise and a nice benefit for this season but not something to hope to rely on consistently.

 

There are nearly 200 Ds that have played at least 80 games since 2019/20.  The only 2 Ds above 10% are Boqvist and Makar - dragged up by this season when he was at 7.7% last season.  The 30th ranked D is already down to 6.7%.  The median is 4.6%.

 

It's the other parts of Makar's game that are elite and make him one of the very best and an integral part of Colorado's success.   

 

This comparison between Makar/Fox was done using Sportlogiq's tracking technology ahead of their 8 December game.

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by mll

[Captain Canuck #12]

So where does Hughes fit into this Fox-Makar statistical comparison?

[NHL'er]

1 hour ago, Captain Canuck #12 said:

So where does Hughes fit into this Fox-Makar statistical comparison?

He fits in the bottom left screen. 

 

 

[Ballisticsports.]

14 hours ago, Rindiculous said:

So recently, I've taken it upon myself to try and watch a good amount of Avalanche games because there are people on the internet constantly trying to stick it all down our throats that Cale Makar, Devon Toews, etc. are all the best defensemen in the world should finish 1/2 in Norris voting and there is absolutely no argument that can be made to counter that.

 

However, there is a problem with this argument as in it doesn't show the whole picture.  Yes, players like Makar and Toews are great players, Toews being an analytical darling posting two years in a row with a 60% expected goals and Makar not far behind while also being a goal scoring machine.  However, with Makar standing out in how many goals he is scoring this year I was wondering why does he score so many goals?  Watching Canucks games all season it be miffed me how any defenseman could be on a 30 goal clip.  Our defense is shooting from the point the whole time and our entire defense this season has 7 goals scored, just over half of Makar's season total alone.  I then decided to look at the rest of Colorado's defense core.  Almost their entire defense are goal scoring machines relative to how many goals defensemen usually score in their position.

 

Cale Makar is obviously the unprecedented one with 13 goals in 24 games.

 

However, Devon Toews has 5 goals in 17 games.

 

Bowen Byram has 4 goals in 14 games.

 

Even their defensive defensemen in Samuel Girard and Erik Johnson have 3 goals each in 26 and 28 games respectively.

 

So I'm just left thinking, does Colorado's entire defense core just have better shots than any defenseman on our defense core?  I couldn't believe that could be true so that is where I started watching games.  That is where I found the answer.

 

I've watched about 5 Avalanche games in the past month and right away I see the reason why the Avs defensemen score so many goals.  They have this one set play where a player like Rantanen or Mackinnon or Landeskog drive from the boards straight to the middle of the slot just inside the top of the circles.  From there it looks like they could shoot it however it could probably be blocked.  So what they do is drop it off in the open space behind them and there is always a defenseman there to take the pass whether it is Makar, Toews, Byram, Girard etc.  Therefore, 3 defenders all seem to get drawn in by the forward meanwhile the defenseman has all the open ice in the world to skate into the slot and snipe from the perfect sniping position unblocked.  Colorado runs this exact same play about 10 times a game and almost always score a goal, usually two, sometimes three from the exact same play in the same game.  It's a super effective play performed by three of the best play driving power forwards in the game.

 

So yes, Makar has a good shot to be able to score that many goals, however I realize now that while they are good, they are definitely being overrated as most of the play driving goes through the forwards.  We usually see the Canucks gain the zone by one of our defenders either passing it from our zone to center ice with a good breakout pass or in Quinn Hughes case sometimes go end to end entering the zone and then passing it off, however the majority of the time what happens for Colorado is that Makar or Toews make a short pass to a forward and then the three forwards are the sole players responsible for skating and passing among themselves to break into the zone.  It's a lot different than how the Canucks operate because it seems like that is mostly run through the defensemen while Colorado is mostly run through the forwards.

 

Now this thread is not to say that Makar or Toews are bad players.  They are very good.  Toews was one of the NYI best defensemen for 2 years when he played there, however Colorado plays a game where it runs a lot of it's playmaking through it's forwards and it's defenders seem to reap the benefits a lot getting a lot of chances to pick up points and score goals.  However, when a player like Tyson Barrie goes from scoring 14 goals a year with Colorado to only 16 goals in the three years since he left or for Toews to score just as many goals in Colorado as he did on the NYI in half as many games, this tells that Colorado runs a different, but very productive system that no other team in the NHL seems to run while showing how good their top forwards actually are to be able to do this game in and game out.

So they play as a Team within their structure, in a system and not as individuals

Needless to say, they are  great players like you state

[wai_lai416]

well if you put elite playmakers with elite defenseman.. in general they'll score more goals? MacKinnon and Rantanen are both elite playmakers and Makar is an elite defenseman with great offensive ability.. heck even evan bouchard almost have more goals than our entire defense play with mcdavid.

[Noble 6]

Heiskanen is just as good as Makar and Fox, but plays on Dallas. Him, Hughes, Theodore, Chabot, Werenski, etc. would hit 60 points playing in Colorado. 

[Rindiculous]

13 hours ago, mll said:

They are shooting at an unsustainable high rate.

 

Makar is at over 19%,  Toews and Byram are over 14%.  It's more noise and a nice benefit for this season but not something to hope to rely on consistently.

 

There are nearly 200 Ds that have played at least 80 games since 2019/20.  The only 2 Ds above 10% are Boqvist and Makar - dragged up by this season when he was at 7.7% last season.  The 30th ranked D is already down to 6.7%.  The median is 4.6%.

 

It's the other parts of Makar's game that are elite and make him one of the very best and an integral part of Colorado's success.   

 

This comparison between Makar/Fox was done using Sportlogiq's tracking technology ahead of their 8 December game.

 

What I'm saying is that unsustainable high rate isn't quite as unsustainable compared to most other defensemen.  From where Makar, Byram, and Toews shoot, it is a much more prime shooting position than any other defensemen in the league.  It is a more prime shooting position than most forwards get to snipe from.  Therefore, I could see them holding a 11-12% shooting percentage if Colorado keeps with the same style of play.  And yes like other people said, none of them have muffins for shots which helps and Colorado is utilizing all their players in the most valuable way possible with the style they play which is a very unusual sort of offensive system compared to every team I watch.  A very fun system to watch if I say so myself.  They are definitely the most exciting team I've watched this year.  I'd like to see if the Canucks could do some of those type of plays.  A guy like Miller or Horvat could probably do the exact same play and drop it to a guy like OEL, Myers, or Hughes who don't have the worst shots in the world either.

 

I just found it very interesting how Colorado does it compared to the rest of the league because their defensemen scoring is pretty much unprecedented as far as I'm aware.

[86Viking]

18 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Are you basically saying Colorado's defenders are good because they have world class centre's? 

don't people here say the Canucks are deep at C? EP is #3C for us, who is Colorado's?

 

Sad about D scoring tho, look what 13.2m in Myers and OEL gets us...65GP combined playing lots of minutes for a combined 2g and 16pts OUCH!!!

 

Time to put OEL a more proven reliable point producing D man in more situations to score imo, Hughes AND OEL on PP1 and 3 F's, sliding 1F down to the 2nd unit strengthening that unit more as well.

[Rindiculous]

35 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

don't people here say the Canucks are deep at C? EP is #3C for us, who is Colorado's?

 

Sad about D scoring tho, look what 13.2m in Myers and OEL gets us...65GP combined playing lots of minutes for a combined 2g and 16pts OUCH!!!

 

Time to put OEL a more proven reliable point producing D man in more situations to score imo, Hughes AND OEL on PP1 and 3 F's, sliding 1F down to the 2nd unit strengthening that unit more as well.

Thing is if we ran our offense a bit differently, they could be putting up a lot of points.  From how we run it we depend on our D gaining the zone for us then passing to our forwards to continue the offense.  That leaves our D very close to the blue line when they take shots which is rarely gonna have them pick up goals and unless the puck is tipped from the blue line, it's hard to get assists as well and from that position tipping a shot there isn't as good as tipping a shot from the half wall.  On the other hand, Colorado focuses a lot less on zone time and depend on their forwards to transition into the zone and then pass to their D to finish the offense.  They use their D in a lot more offensive role than we do.  A lot of the time our forwards sit at the blue line for our D to either skate the puck in or dump it in.  Colorado on the other hand has their forwards sit around the red line so they can wind up speed as they're gaining the zone (it helps that most of their players have a very fast first three strides).

 

I don't see anything wrong with our power play.  Lately, it has been top 10 in the NHL.  Right now our D like Myers and OEL point totals really underrate how good of defensemen they are because they are rarely used in a way that allows them to generate offense while guys like Makar and Toews are probably a bit overrated because they are almost always used in a way that allows them to generate offense.  You can't really compare a Hughes to a Makar because the two teams use completely different systems.  Makar in our system would not score at a 15 goal clip, let alone a 30 goal clip most likely, while Hughes on Colorado might be able to get up to 20+ goals a year but could pick up fewer assists because their system wouldn't take advantage of how good Hughes passing is as much.  You just can never know because it's like comparing apples to oranges.

[Warhippy]

Te Avs have one of the smoothest and most mobile D corps I've seen since the Islanders dynasty, or Coffy lead the Oilers.

 

They are playing behind world class players and two top 10s in Raantanen and Mackinnon.  Kadri is not nor has he ever been a slouch either as he leads the team in numerous metrics.  They poached Nichuskin who is nearly a ppg player and Girard etc.

 

This is without the mention of that trade that saw them net Byram for Duchene.  They have 13 total players at or above .5 ppg this year and if you look at their roster it is full of top picks, 12th or higher.  Most of their reclamation projects or pro scouting moves from trades were home runs.  makar is an absolute stud.  Byram is going to be an absolute stud.  Toews, well look at him.  They have two 1st overall players, a 2nd and 3rd, a 7th and 8th a 10th.  Numerous players from the 10-20 spot and a few in the 20-30 spot for draft on their roster.

 

Essentially this is a team where every possible player they drafted is starting to play up to their potential and that doesn't happen often.  Makar and Toews on any other team are great players still.  Byram as well.  Johnson ok sure.  Mackinnon/Rantanen/Kadri all good to great.

 

But ocne you put them together and allow them to start complimenting each others strengths you get what we had from 2010 to 2012 and if their goaltender gets his act together you're looking at a potential cup winning team in the next couple years.

 

TLDR:  It isn't just great defensemen.  Theyd be good elsewhere too.  it's an entire cast of well scouted well drafted players living up to their potential in a good mobile system.

[mll]

Colorado excels off the rush - best team at both generating and preventing goals (maybe not this season with them missing Makar and MacKinnon for stretches).  Kelly highlighting here Colorado's excellence at generating and preventing chances off the rush back in 2020

 

As for Vancouver they have been one if not the worse team off the rush for a few seasons now and have primarily generated their offence off the cycle - top-5 in chances last season and even led the league in cycle goals the bubble season.  

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by mll

[86Viking]

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

Te Avs have one of the smoothest and most mobile D corps I've seen since the Islanders dynasty, or Coffy lead the Oilers.

 

They are playing behind world class players and two top 10s in Raantanen and Mackinnon.  Kadri is not nor has he ever been a slouch either as he leads the team in numerous metrics.  They poached Nichuskin who is nearly a ppg player and Girard etc.

 

This is without the mention of that trade that saw them net Byram for Duchene.  They have 13 total players at or above .5 ppg this year and if you look at their roster it is full of top picks, 12th or higher.  Most of their reclamation projects or pro scouting moves from trades were home runs.  makar is an absolute stud.  Byram is going to be an absolute stud.  Toews, well look at him.  They have two 1st overall players, a 2nd and 3rd, a 7th and 8th a 10th.  Numerous players from the 10-20 spot and a few in the 20-30 spot for draft on their roster.

 

Essentially this is a team where every possible player they drafted is starting to play up to their potential and that doesn't happen often.  Makar and Toews on any other team are great players still.  Byram as well.  Johnson ok sure.  Mackinnon/Rantanen/Kadri all good to great.

 

But ocne you put them together and allow them to start complimenting each others strengths you get what we had from 2010 to 2012 and if their goaltender gets his act together you're looking at a potential cup winning team in the next couple years.

 

TLDR:  It isn't just great defensemen.  Theyd be good elsewhere too.  it's an entire cast of well scouted well drafted players living up to their potential in a good mobile system.

Time for us to hire MacFarland from Colorado...before say Anaheim does!?

[Warhippy]

2 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

Time for us to hire MacFarland from Colorado...before say Anaheim does!?

I like the guy from Tampa myself.  He drafts endless gems.  Al Murray come on down!

 

Hell, why not hire tAl Murray from Tampa as our new head scout and Garth Joy from the Avs as our new pro scout

[Wanless]

21 hours ago, Canuckster86 said:

don't people here say the Canucks are deep at C? EP is #3C for us, who is Colorado's?

 

Sad about D scoring tho, look what 13.2m in Myers and OEL gets us...65GP combined playing lots of minutes for a combined 2g and 16pts OUCH!!!

 

Time to put OEL a more proven reliable point producing D man in more situations to score imo, Hughes AND OEL on PP1 and 3 F's, sliding 1F down to the 2nd unit strengthening that unit more as well.

All that would do is take away points from whoever gets taken off the PP