Undrafted and Late Bloomer ELCs -- Track Record and Expectations

[Dixon Ward]

20 hours ago, Alflives said:

Fla can suck pucks.  They’re going the wrong way with a team full of softies.  And they have a 10 million dollar goalie for 4 more years with a full NMC who can’t stop a beachball.  

This guy is mocking our brass for not signing someone like Levtchi who will be 27 this year and this was the first year he scored more than a point per game.  In perspective, Lukas Jasek scored a point per game in that league in his 1 year there.  I'm all for mocking the brass when needed, but give them some time and look at the whole off-season before judging.

[GB5]

21 hours ago, JamesB said:

Bill Sweatt

Great post thanks,

 

One minor correction is that Bill should probably be Lee as Bill was a 2nd round pick by Chicago but Lee was undrafted.

 

Only saying this not to take away from your excellent post but just to recognize Lee Sweatt scored an iconic goal, his one and only NHL goal.

[aGENT]

On 6/19/2022 at 5:52 PM, JamesB said:

So far this off-season the main activity for the Canucks has been signing 4 players that I think of as the "undrafted and late bloomer ELC" category. This consists of players signed to entry level (ELC) contracts who were either not drafted or were drafted by other teams who gave up on them. This includes Arshdeep Bains (undrafted), Nils Aman (6th round Colorado pick), and Filip Johansson (Minnesota first round pick). I will also include Linus Karlsson (3rd round SJ pick) although he was not a "freebie" but was acquired in trade for Dahlen. However, at the time, he was viewed as a very unlikely prospect.  

 

In the thread on the Johannson signing I commented that I was happy with the move but, after reporting some aspects of his track record, I suggested that Johansson was unlikely to ever make it to the NHL.

 

Several people were critical of my comment and one or two were critical of me and mentioned Burrows and Tanev as late bloomers who became very good players. But what is the track record? Tanev was signed as an undrafted free agent ELC in 2010 and has had an excellent career. I made a list of all the undrafted and other freebie ELCs the Canucks have signed since then. It is a long list, I report it here partly for the nostalgia value. After that I will make some comments about the overall track record and about which of the 4 recent signings I like best and which I like least (and why). 

 

The undrafted and late bloomer ELC  list below is in chronological order:

 

Bill Lee Sweatt (thanks to @GB5 for the correction)

Kellan Lain

Joacim Player Name

Jeremie Blain

Ronalds Kenins

Dane Fox

Michael Zalewski

Evan McEneny (end of Gillis era)

 

Sautner (begin Benning era)

Troy Stecher

Michael Garteig

Yan-Pavel Laplante

Michael Carcone

Jalen Chatfield

Griffen Molino

Philip Holm 

Mitch Eliot

Josh Teves

Brogan Rafferty

Jake Kielly

Zach MacEwen

 

There are 21 players on the list. None of them have come close to Tanev. A lot of them generated a bit of excitement here and there and 2 or 3 became marginal NHL players. But I would say that only one -- Troy Stecher -- has become a solid NHL regular (top 6 D or top 12 F). for a significant length of time.

 

So, yes, sometimes players in this category became valuable NHL players, But not often. They are all longshots. Their performance record is similar to players drafted in the late rounds (5th through 7th round). 

 

The key to success is being a late bloomer. That is what Tanev and Burrows had in common (and Stecher). The weren't drafted at age 18 (or 19) because they just weren't very good at that age. They worked hard and they matured late physically. 

 

So I think the best bets are guys who are not very good at 18 but who improve a lot later. The most obvious example from this summer is Arshdeep Bains.

The worst bets are guys who are pretty good at age 18 but just don't improve much. I would put Johansson in that category. 

 

Karlsson is a pretty good bet because has also improved a lot in the past two years. Of course at age 22 he is getting older and running out of "runway". But I think he has a decent shot of becoming an NHL regular.  

 

The Aman trajectory is more similar to Johansson. So my ordering is:

 

1. Karlsson

2. Bains

3. Aman

4. Johansson

 

All these guys are longshots. If 1 out of 4 becomes a legitimate NHL regular, that would be a success. If 2 out of 4 make it or if one guy becomes a core player (top 4 D or top 6 forward) that would be outstanding.

 

But I am impressed by Allvin. I expect his track record with undrafted and late bloomer ELCs to be much better than Benning's.

 

One last point. Even though the yield is low for this category of player, it is important. Pretty much all good teams have a couple of players from this category in important roles (as the 2011 Canucks did).

 

 

 

 

Might want to make a similar list for PIT under Rutherford...

[RU SERIOUS]

My fear when Alvin was hired was that he'd naturally lean towards swedes and that is exactly what is happening.   Even though there might be the odd diamond in the rough amongst those recent sweedish signings, we ought to be careful about stacking our team full of swedes again, as most long-time hockey fans will confirm that grinding thru a four series post season playoff run to win the Stanley cup is well beyond the inherent psychological limits of swedes.  There is nothing - and I mean nothing in the Swedish hockey league to prepare them for a gruling Stanley Cup run and why most of them FOLD up like a house of cards and wither away during playoff runs and history has overwhelmingly proved that.   

Of course, there have been a very, very few swedes that have survived a Stanley Cup run and went on the win but they are far and few between.    So hopefully JR will temper Alvin and ensure we have some balance on the team and not just a bunch of Swedish FINESSE players that are "Fun" to watch during regular season.   We've been down that path for over 20 years!  

Edited June 22, 2022 by RU SERIOUS

[Alflives]

Just now, RU SERIOUS said:

My fear when Alvin was hired was that he'd naturally lean towards swedes and that is exactly what is happening.   Even though there might be the odd diamond in the rough amongst those recent sweedish signings, we ought to be careful about stacking our team full of swedes again, as most long-time hockey fans will confirm that grinding thru a four series post season playoff run to win the Stanley cup is well beyond the psychological inherent limits of swedes.  There is nothing - and I mean nothing in the Swedish hockey league to prepare them for a gruling Stanley Cup run and why most of them FOLD up like a house of cards and wither away during playoff runs and history has overwhelmingly proved that.   

Of course, there have been a very, very few swedes that have survivced a Stanley Cup run and went on the win but they are far and few between.    So hopefully JR will temper Alvin and ensure we have some balance on the team and not just a bunch of Swedish FINESSE players that are "Fun" to watch during regular season.   We've been down that path for over 20 years!  

Is Kuzmenko a Swede?

[JamesB]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

Might want to make a similar list for PIT under Rutherford...

Good idea, but it might interfere with my afternoon nap.  

[Ghostsof1915]

25 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said:

My fear when Alvin was hired was that he'd naturally lean towards swedes and that is exactly what is happening.   Even though there might be the odd diamond in the rough amongst those recent sweedish signings, we ought to be careful about stacking our team full of swedes again, as most long-time hockey fans will confirm that grinding thru a four series post season playoff run to win the Stanley cup is well beyond the inherent psychological limits of swedes.  There is nothing - and I mean nothing in the Swedish hockey league to prepare them for a gruling Stanley Cup run and why most of them FOLD up like a house of cards and wither away during playoff runs and history has overwhelmingly proved that.   

Of course, there have been a very, very few swedes that have survived a Stanley Cup run and went on the win but they are far and few between.    So hopefully JR will temper Alvin and ensure we have some balance on the team and not just a bunch of Swedish FINESSE players that are "Fun" to watch during regular season.   We've been down that path for over 20 years!  

Hedman,

Lidstrom

Landeskog is in the finals.

There's a lot of Swedes who either won or have been in a Cup finals.

Your Don Cherry is showing.....

 

 

[Curmudgeon]

15 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said:

as most long-time hockey fans will confirm that grinding thru a four series post season playoff run to win the Stanley cup is well beyond the inherent psychological limits of swedes.

Victor Hedman, Oskar Sundqvist, Carl Gunnarsson, Nicklas Backstrom, Carl Hagelin, Patrik Hornqvist, Johnny Oduya, Marcus Kruger, Nik Hjalmarsson, and Viktor Stalberg all played four rounds in winning a Stanley Cup in just the last ten seasons. So when, where and how did you become an expert on the "inherent psychological limits" of Swedes?

[aGENT]

29 minutes ago, JamesB said:

Good idea, but it might interfere with my afternoon nap.  

 

[Nooks]

1 hour ago, Curmudgeon said:

Victor Hedman, Oskar Sundqvist, Carl Gunnarsson, Nicklas Backstrom, Carl Hagelin, Patrik Hornqvist, Johnny Oduya, Marcus Kruger, Nik Hjalmarsson, and Viktor Stalberg all played four rounds in winning a Stanley Cup in just the last ten seasons. So when, where and how did you become an expert on the "inherent psychological limits" of Swedes?

Huge, butter, butter, butter but it’s cold out, butter but fast, butter, Kenyan, butter, butter.

 

This is physiological but checks out.

[tyhee]

I agree completely with your post.  There are of course exceptions, generally as you say where a player has shown marked improvement, but one has to be aware that in most cases in which a player is available for free, that will turn out to be what he is worth in the NHL.

 

Of course with Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard, virtually devoid of prospects, the team might as well take a flyer on someone who appears to have the potential to grow into someone that can contribute at the NHL level so long as they have extra contract slots available.

 

On another tack, Joacim "Player Name" gives us one of the great demonstrations of how stats can be very odd when the sample size is small.  He appeared for 36 minutes for the Canucks, giving up 6 goals for a 10.00 GAA. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by tyhee

[RU SERIOUS]

21 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

My fear when Alvin was hired was that he'd naturally lean towards swedes and that is exactly what is happening.   Even though there might be the odd diamond in the rough amongst those recent sweedish signings, we ought to be careful about stacking our team full of swedes again, as most long-time hockey fans will confirm that grinding thru a four series post season playoff run to win the Stanley cup is well beyond the inherent psychological limits of swedes.  There is nothing - and I mean nothing in the Swedish hockey league to prepare them for a gruling Stanley Cup run and why most of them FOLD up like a house of cards and wither away during playoff runs and history has overwhelmingly proved that.   

Of course, there have been a very, very few swedes that have survived a Stanley Cup run and went on the win but they are far and few between.    So hopefully JR will temper Alvin and ensure we have some balance on the team and not just a bunch of Swedish FINESSE players that are "Fun" to watch during regular season.   We've been down that path for over 20 years!  

 

20 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Hedman,

Lidstrom

Landeskog is in the finals.

There's a lot of Swedes who either won or have been in a Cup finals.

Your Don Cherry is showing.....

 

 

 

20 hours ago, Curmudgeon said:

Victor Hedman, Oskar Sundqvist, Carl Gunnarsson, Nicklas Backstrom, Carl Hagelin, Patrik Hornqvist, Johnny Oduya, Marcus Kruger, Nik Hjalmarsson, and Viktor Stalberg all played four rounds in winning a Stanley Cup in just the last ten seasons. So when, where and how did you become an expert on the "inherent psychological limits" of Swedes?

Thanks for pointing out the names of "those few" swedes that have won the cup (as I mentioned actually existed).    I recognized a couple of names but not some of those obscure/peripheral players at the bottom of your list.   It must have taken some effort to "scrape" up and find those last few obsure names on the bottom of your list and for that - we all appreciate the effort it must have taken you. I always thought there were more than a half dozen swedes out there that won the cup out of the thousands that have played in the NHL over the years - but could never manage to find evidence and their names.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by RU SERIOUS

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, RU SERIOUS said:

 

 

Thanks for pointing out the names of "those few" swedes that have won the cup (as I mentioned actually existed).    I recognized a couple of names but not some of those obscure/peripheral players at the bottom of your list.   It must have taken some effort to "scrape" up and find those last few obsure names on the bottom of your list and for that - we all appreciate the effort it must have taken you. I always thought there were more than a half dozen swedes out there that won the cup out of the thousands that have played in the NHL over the years - but could never manage to find evidence and their names.

What?  Where a guy is from has no bearing on whether that guy has the compete to win Cups, as a key core piece or as a support role player.  There are lots of high compete guys from Sweden, and lots of low compete guys from other countries.  Heart, desire, willingness to sacrifice, and compete don't know a specific country.  

 

[RU SERIOUS]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

What?  Where a guy is from has no bearing on whether that guy has the compete to win Cups, as a key core piece or as a support role player.  There are lots of high compete guys from Sweden, and lots of low compete guys from other countries.  Heart, desire, willingness to sacrifice, and compete don't know a specific country.  

 

Not usually, but we've all heard numerous times from Swedish & other Euro's that the ultimate goal in their career is to win an Olympic medal not the Stanley cup.  That could possibly be one of the reasons so few of them rise to the occassion during a stanley cup run.   There's been alot of debate on this over the years and will continue for generations and we won't settle this on CDC - thats for sure - but in the meantime can each have our own theories & opinions on the matter.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said:

Not usually, but we've all heard numerous times from Swedish & other Euro's that the ultimate goal in their career is to win an Olympic medal not the Stanley cup.  That could possibly be one of the reasons so few of them rise to the occassion during a stanley cup run.   There's been alot of debate on this over the years and will continue for generations and we won't settle this on CDC - thats for sure - but in the meantime can each have our own theories & opinions on the matter.

Sure you can have your own opinion.  But it's one that is based in ignorance.  

[Curmudgeon]

2 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

 It must have taken some effort to "scrape" up and find those last few obsure names on the bottom of your list and for that - we all appreciate the effort it must have taken you.

Not at all. Using the Internet Hockey Database it took about five minutes, which you would know if you bothered to look for evidence to support your opinion in the first place. 

 

2 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

I always thought there were more than a half dozen swedes out there that won the cup out of the thousands that have played in the NHL over the years - but could never manage to find evidence and their names.

Again, if you bothered to look for evidence to support your opinion in the first place you wouldn't make unsubstantiated statements. But now you have me intrigued. Thousands of Swedes? Really? Can you list more than fifty? Actually, 393 players of Swedish birth have played in the NHL, and I found that in less than 90 seconds.

 

But do keep on digging, you're just getting deeper.