Undrafted and Late Bloomer ELCs -- Track Record and Expectations

[JamesB]

So far this off-season the main activity for the Canucks has been signing 4 players that I think of as the "undrafted and late bloomer ELC" category. This consists of players signed to entry level (ELC) contracts who were either not drafted or were drafted by other teams who gave up on them. This includes Arshdeep Bains (undrafted), Nils Aman (6th round Colorado pick), and Filip Johansson (Minnesota first round pick). I will also include Linus Karlsson (3rd round SJ pick) although he was not a "freebie" but was acquired in trade for Dahlen. However, at the time, he was viewed as a very unlikely prospect.  

 

In the thread on the Johannson signing I commented that I was happy with the move but, after reporting some aspects of his track record, I suggested that Johansson was unlikely to ever make it to the NHL.

 

Several people were critical of my comment and one or two were critical of me and mentioned Burrows and Tanev as late bloomers who became very good players. But what is the track record? Tanev was signed as an undrafted free agent ELC in 2010 and has had an excellent career. I made a list of all the undrafted and other freebie ELCs the Canucks have signed since then. It is a long list, I report it here partly for the nostalgia value. After that I will make some comments about the overall track record and about which of the 4 recent signings I like best and which I like least (and why). 

 

The undrafted and late bloomer ELC  list below is in chronological order:

 

Bill Lee Sweatt (thanks to @GB5 for the correction)

Kellan Lain

Joacim Player Name

Jeremie Blain

Ronalds Kenins

Dane Fox

Michael Zalewski

Evan McEneny (end of Gillis era)

 

Sautner (begin Benning era)

Troy Stecher

Michael Garteig

Yan-Pavel Laplante

Michael Carcone

Jalen Chatfield

Griffen Molino

Philip Holm 

Mitch Eliot

Josh Teves

Brogan Rafferty

Jake Kielly

Zach MacEwen

 

There are 21 players on the list. None of them have come close to Tanev. A lot of them generated a bit of excitement here and there and 2 or 3 became marginal NHL players. But I would say that only one -- Troy Stecher -- has become a solid NHL regular (top 6 D or top 12 F). for a significant length of time.

 

So, yes, sometimes players in this category became valuable NHL players, But not often. They are all longshots. Their performance record is similar to players drafted in the late rounds (5th through 7th round). 

 

The key to success is being a late bloomer. That is what Tanev and Burrows had in common (and Stecher). The weren't drafted at age 18 (or 19) because they just weren't very good at that age. They worked hard and they matured late physically. 

 

So I think the best bets are guys who are not very good at 18 but who improve a lot later. The most obvious example from this summer is Arshdeep Bains.

The worst bets are guys who are pretty good at age 18 but just don't improve much. I would put Johansson in that category. 

 

Karlsson is a pretty good bet because has also improved a lot in the past two years. Of course at age 22 he is getting older and running out of "runway". But I think he has a decent shot of becoming an NHL regular.  

 

The Aman trajectory is more similar to Johansson. So my ordering is:

 

1. Karlsson

2. Bains

3. Aman

4. Johansson

 

All these guys are longshots. If 1 out of 4 becomes a legitimate NHL regular, that would be a success. If 2 out of 4 make it or if one guy becomes a core player (top 4 D or top 6 forward) that would be outstanding.

 

But I am impressed by Allvin. I expect his track record with undrafted and late bloomer ELCs to be much better than Benning's.

 

One last point. Even though the yield is low for this category of player, it is important. Pretty much all good teams have a couple of players from this category in important roles (as the 2011 Canucks did).

 

 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by JamesB

[Goal:thecup]

Good stuff James, thanks.

The nostalgic value was appreciated too.

I am such a homer; I was cheering for almost all these guy, and more!

 

But I like management picking through everything and making decisions and moving forward.

They've taken their time to learn what we have as well as what might be out there.

This is the most competent management we have had, probably in the history of the team, imo.

[Fred65]

Mean  while down  in Florida

Florida Panthers General Manager Bill Zito announced today that forward Anton Levtchi has agreed to terms on a one-year, entry-level contract commencing in the 2022-23 season.

"Anton is one of the most potent scoring forwards in European hockey," said Zito. "He demonstrated his skill level during his outstanding campaign with Tappara this season and we look forward to him joining our organization."

 

We signed Johansson and Aman

[JM_]

MacEwan and Stecher could still have roles here, so I guess 2/13 is the record under Benning? roughly the success rate of late 2nd round/3rd round picks. 

 

The more you can get from the undrafted the better, so I like that Alvin has managed to pick up a couple of these for free. 

[Goal:thecup]

1 minute ago, Fred65 said:

Mean  while down  in Florida

Florida Panthers General Manager Bill Zito announced today that forward Anton Levtchi has agreed to terms on a one-year, entry-level contract commencing in the 2022-23 season.

"Anton is one of the most potent scoring forwards in European hockey," said Zito. "He demonstrated his skill level during his outstanding campaign with Tappara this season and we look forward to him joining our organization."

 

We signed Johansson and Aman

I wonder, if these players are restricted as to the amount of US Dollars they get for these contracts, if Florida teams, and others in the US, don't once again gain an advantage over the Canucks (and other hated Canadian teams)?

"most potent scoring forwards"  Wowza!  Viagra!  I digress, sorry.

[Ghostsof1915]

When you don't give up any assets to get a player. What's the issue? Our prospect pool is pretty empty. Adding some longshots doesn't seem like it's the worst thing.

Besides maybe the real issue is we need to coordinate with our AHL team, and get players playing the same system in the minors as we do in the NHL. In addition stop worrrying about making the Calder Cup, and focus more on improving skills and development.

[Alflives]

14 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

Mean  while down  in Florida

Florida Panthers General Manager Bill Zito announced today that forward Anton Levtchi has agreed to terms on a one-year, entry-level contract commencing in the 2022-23 season.

"Anton is one of the most potent scoring forwards in European hockey," said Zito. "He demonstrated his skill level during his outstanding campaign with Tappara this season and we look forward to him joining our organization."

 

We signed Johansson and Aman

Fla can suck pucks.  They’re going the wrong way with a team full of softies.  And they have a 10 million dollar goalie for 4 more years with a full NMC who can’t stop a beachball.  

[robr1can]

46 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

When you don't give up any assets to get a player. What's the issue? Our prospect pool is pretty empty. Adding some longshots doesn't seem like it's the worst thing.

Besides maybe the real issue is we need to coordinate with our AHL team, and get players playing the same system in the minors as we do in the NHL. In addition stop worrrying about making the Calder Cup, and focus more on improving skills and development.

Agreed! The 'Nucks need to stock the farm as well with good players. Of course not all will be NHL regulars, and some may never get a "cup of coffee" in the NHL, but there is nothing wrong with "free" assets with the Baby 'Nucks. Who knows, one may be a diamond in the rough!

[Guest]

One of these is not like the others:  Linus Karlsson  

 

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

I will also include Linus Karlsson (3rd round SJ pick) although he was not a "feebie" but was acquired in trade for Dahlen. However, at the time, he was viewed as a very unlikely prospect.  

....

 

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

Karlsson is a pretty good bet because has also improved a lot in the past two years. Of course at age 22 he is getting older and running out of "runway". But I think he has a decent shot of becoming an NHL regular.  

 

3rd round pick in the 2018 draft that has done nothing but improve every year.  

Take Linus Karlsson out and I agree with the rest of your post. That's not to say that Linus is a lock to make the team/NHL, but he is not comparable to the undrafted/late bloomer guys.  Most of the forwards drafted outside the 1st round don't make the NHL until they're 21 and older. 

 

Look at the Avs/Tampa guys...  

JT Compher got a cup of coffee in the NHL as he was turning 22. 

Logan O'Connor got 5 games in the NHL when he was 23. 

Nicolas Aube-Kubel was 23 when he played 54 games in AHL and 9 games in the NHL. 

Arturi Lehkonnen : 21 

Alex Killorn : 23 

Ross Colton : 25 

Ondrej Palat : 22 

Edited June 20, 2022 by VancouverHabitant

[hammertime]

Arshdeep Bains is gonna be a player. He's got a good grinder foundation for a future 3rd liner. He's an excellent checker with good vision to make plays. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by hammertime

[JamesB]

2 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

One of these is not like the others:  Linus Karlsson  

 

....

 

3rd round pick in the 2018 draft that has done nothing but improve every year.  

Take Linus Karlsson out and I agree with the rest of your post. That's not to say that Linus is a lock to make the team/NHL, but he is not comparable to the undrafted/late bloomer guys.  Most of the forwards drafted outside the 1st round don't make the NHL until they're 21 and older. 

 

Look at the Avs/Tampa guys...  

JT Compher got a cup of coffee in the NHL as he was turning 22. 

Logan O'Connor got 5 games in the NHL when he was 23. 

Nicolas Aube-Kubel was 23 when he played 54 games in AHL and 9 games in the NHL. 

Arturi Lehkonnen : 21 

Alex Killorn : 23 

Ross Colton : 25 

Ondrej Palat : 22 

I agree that Karlsson is in a different category. But I wanted to discuss all the Canuck summer signings. That said, he is not that different. He was a low 3rd round pick (87th overall) and had relatively disappointing progress immediately after. Here is a (factual) quote from local media about his Draft + 1 year:

 

"Karlsson has 18 points in 52 games for Karlskrona HK in the Allsvenskan, the same league Dahlen just graduated from. Dahlen had 44 points in 45 games with Timra at the same age". 

 

And he did not make it to the SHL until his Draft + 4 year. But he made a lot of progress during his Draft+3 year and obviously had an excellent year in his Draft+4 year. It is encouraging if a guy is still making significant strides forward at that stage. 

 

 

[JamesB]

4 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

When you don't give up any assets to get a player. What's the issue? Our prospect pool is pretty empty. Adding some longshots doesn't seem like it's the worst thing.

Besides maybe the real issue is we need to coordinate with our AHL team, and get players playing the same system in the minors as we do in the NHL. In addition stop worrrying about making the Calder Cup, and focus more on improving skills and development.

Some good points here. First, our prospect pool is very weak so it makes sense that Allvin is adding guys to it even if they are longshots.

 

Second we do need more coordination with Abby. I expect to see that happen next year. (It was not really possible with the all changes last year). But Allvin and JR are on the ball and that is the kind of thing they will do. AHL development has been a weak area during the Benning era and needs to be improved. 

 

But adding these "freebies" is not quite free given the limit of 50 contracts. You need a few open slots in case you need (or want) to add players during the season. So the effective or practical limit at the start of the season is maybe 46 or 47 contracts. It would be easy to fill those contract slots. There are lots of guys who would love to sign with an NHL team. So the GM still has to exercise caution and make good choices. You want to be close to the limit as these contracts are assets that should be used but you need to make the right choices and not waste contract slots. 

 

I think this area is Allvin's show (not JR's) and I expect him to put in a lot of "due diligence".on each player signed.

 

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by JamesB

[Guest]

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

 

But adding these "freebies" is not quite free given the limit of 50 contracts. You need a few open slots in case you need (or want) to add players during the season. So the effective or practical limit at the start of the season is maybe 46 or 47 contracts. It would be easy to fill those contract slots. There are lots of guys who would love to sign with an NHL team. So the GM still has to exercise caution and make good choices. You want to be close to the limit as these contracts are assets that should be used but you need to make the right choices and not waste contract slots. 

 

 

Yeah, contract slots are definitely a commodity as well.  

 

Benning and Weisbrod were closely connected to the American hockey system and it showed with all the NCAA guys that we signed for free.  We have seen so far that Allvin is closely connected to Sweden.  Hopefully he can attract a college free agent or two as well.  

 

On the subject of the number of contracts...  I wonder which one of these players will be brought back:  Brisebois, Sautner, Devante Stephens, Madison Bowey, Noah Juulsen, Mike DiPietro, Bailey, Di Giuseppe, Sheldon Dries, Sheldon Rempal, Nic Petan, and John Stevens. 

[JamesB]

40 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Yeah, contract slots are definitely a commodity as well.  

 

Benning and Weisbrod were closely connected to the American hockey system and it showed with all the NCAA guys that we signed for free.  We have seen so far that Allvin is closely connected to Sweden.  Hopefully he can attract a college free agent or two as well.  

 

On the subject of the number of contracts...  I wonder which one of these players will be brought back:  Brisebois, Sautner, Devante Stephens, Madison Bowey, Noah Juulsen, Mike DiPietro, Bailey, Di Giuseppe, Sheldon Dries, Sheldon Rempal, Nic Petan, and John Stevens. 

Good point about Benning being closer the U.S. system and Allvin being closer to Sweden (and probably Europe generally).  I am not sure that makes a lot of difference. It would of course be good to have good connections in the U.S. system, the Canadian junior system, and in Europe and the expansion of the Canuck staff might allow for more attention to be paid to all three areas.

 

As for who gets brought back, good question. Some these guys will go, probably at least 3 or 4 of them. The media consensus seems to be that Dries and Rempal will be brought back. And Juulsen was apparently very popular in Abby (and played well).

 

Sautner, Stevens, Di Giuseppe, and Dries are all 28 and Bowey and Petan are 27. They have kind of "aged out" of the prospect category and AHL teams are limited in the number of vets they can play, which adds another constraint.

 

Dries was a star at the AHL level and was quite effective as an injury call-up with the big team. So I expect him to be back. The others in that older group I think are unlikely to get NHL contract with the Canucks. But there is always the potential to sign them to AHL contracts to keep them in Abby if they do not have other NHL contract options. 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

14 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

When you don't give up any assets to get a player. What's the issue? Our prospect pool is pretty empty. Adding some longshots doesn't seem like it's the worst thing.

Besides maybe the real issue is we need to coordinate with our AHL team, and get players playing the same system in the minors as we do in the NHL. In addition stop worrrying about making the Calder Cup, and focus more on improving skills and development.

Blame Gillis!

 

Seriously though, that GM was rightly blamed for leaving the farm system in the sad state it was when Benning was first hired.  Issue is, 7 years later, the situation isn't that different today.

Edited June 20, 2022 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Fred65]

1 hour ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Blame Gillis!

 

Seriously though, that GM was rightly blamed for leaving the farm system in the sad state it was when Benning was first hired.  Issue is, 7 years later, the situation isn't that different today.

Gillis is long long gone but thedeath knell for many posters was he left the cupboard bare of prospects, well 8 years later it's exactly the same. The good news is JB had a lot of high picks in the draft. he had 8 drafts, 2 were JV and OJ ( busts) and traded away 2, 1st round picks. So 8 drafts he got 4 players brilliant

[NewbieCanuckFan]

31 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

Gillis is long long gone but thedeath knell for many posters was he left the cupboard bare of prospects, well 8 years later it's exactly the same. The good news is JB had a lot of high picks in the draft. he had 8 drafts, 2 were JV and OJ ( busts) and traded away 2, 1st round picks. So 8 drafts he got 4 players brilliant

Which is why I said in the post you quoted of mine that he was rightly blamed for leaving the farm system in the sad state it was.  Reason why Miller is forced to play center is that the same empty cupboard in the farm over 7 years after Gillis was fired.  That's on Benning.  It's not like Gillis traded away a ton of future draft picks that Benning couldn't use.

Edited June 20, 2022 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Fred65]

I hope this is good news

 

Highly-coveted KHL free agent Andrei Kuzmenko has signed with the Vancouver Canucks – Canucksarmy

[DS4quality]

44 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

I hope this is good news

 

Highly-coveted KHL free agent Andrei Kuzmenko has signed with the Vancouver Canucks – Canucksarmy

I hope he works out, he's 26 already,  but there must he a reason why he's highly touted. 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

32 minutes ago, DS4quality said:

I hope he works out, he's 26 already,  but there must he a reason why he's highly touted. 

Free lottery ticket.  No risk.