Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Won’t quibble about individual players. Haven’t seen enough of Hronek to know if he is truly core and he is coming in off an injury looking to get paid. He may pull a JTM/Bo and focus on scoring as many points as possible while abandoning D because it is contract year. 
The core has some really nice players. EP is a top 2 way centre in this league, Quinn is best D man we have ever had and people are starting to understand how good he is on D. Demko has been solid his entire career except for early this year but his health is a big concern. 
Miller I have concerns about fitness and general professionalism but once he rounds into shape about 1/3 of the way into the season he can be a really good offensive player, he needs to mitigate the damage he is doing while rounding into shape though. 
With all that plus Kuzmenko and half a season of Mik we were still worse than last year. 
This team needs a complete rejigging around that core and that is really hard to do when you have no cap room, some massive RFA bills coming and depleted draft capital.  They have bolstered the prospect pool from worst in the league to probably somewhere in the bottom third. 
A lot of work to do and they have really handcuffed their ability to do it with wild spending on the wing without being able to subtract players. I suspect we will need to waste another year before we can make major D changes. Just hope they at least find a way to clear out 2-3 of Beau, Brock and Garland so they can start restructuring around the core. 
I will keep saying this too, next years first rounder will go out to clear some cap to overspend on a UFA to address one spot on the roster when about 10 need addressing. 

I think we agree. Our core is good, but the supporting cast is not. Our core will carry even a poor supporting cast to 10 to 15 spots from the league bottom. 
New management is retooling the supporting cast. They have Kuz, Mik, but clearly need more. 
We need to create cap space while improving the supporting cast. 
An OEL buyout is a must.

Garland must go.

Myers must go. 

We need two big bopper D. 
We need a right shot, defensive minded, good on the draw 3C. 
 

 

[DrJockitch]

38 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I think we agree. Our core is good, but the supporting cast is not. Our core will carry even a poor supporting cast to 10 to 15 spots from the league bottom. 
New management is retooling the supporting cast. They have Kuz, Mik, but clearly need more. 
We need to create cap space while improving the supporting cast. 
An OEL buyout is a must.

Garland must go.

Myers must go. 

We need two big bopper D. 
We need a right shot, defensive minded, good on the draw 3C. 
 

 

And a solid vet backup G as always worried about Demko’s health. 
need a general culture shift to faster and somewhat bigger. 
The new group have found no ability to subtract significant players and cap off the roster except for our younger quality players. They have done well in trading Bo but that didn’t really buy us any cap flexibility and with Hronek looking for big money, we have a much tighter cap situation now then we did when they took over. 

[dougieL]

5 hours ago, Baggins said:

I thought this was a really deep draft. If so how is it we can't get a good player at 11?

 

Hahaha what a simple-minded statement. A deep draft means you can get good players farther into the draft. It doesn't mean that there isn't a steep drop-off from top 5 to 11th. Are you really trying to argue that having the 11th pick is just as good as having #5 or #8 or even #10? You're not really that senseless, are you?

 

 

 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, DrJockitch said:

And a solid vet backup G as always worried about Demko’s health. 
need a general culture shift to faster and somewhat bigger. 
The new group have found no ability to subtract significant players and cap off the roster except for our younger quality players. They have done well in trading Bo but that didn’t really buy us any cap flexibility and with Hronek looking for big money, we have a much tighter cap situation now then we did when they took over. 

New management completed the core by adding Hronek. 
It’s up to our owner to write the cheque for the OEL buyout. Garland snd Myers will be traded before next season. Those three moves create 18 million in cap space for next season. Lots of room. 
How long did it take Gillis to retool the supporting cast and make those great teams? Next season we will get over 100 points. The season after that we will be like those great Gillis clubs. 
Have we ever had a core five like this?

It’s the supporting cast we need to build out. 

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, dougieL said:

Hahaha what a simple-minded statement. A deep draft means you can get good players farther into the draft. It doesn't mean that there isn't a steep drop-off from top 5 to 11th. Are you really trying to argue that having the 11th pick is just as good as having #5 or #8 or even #10? You're not really that senseless, are you?

 

 

 

Where was Kopitar selected in his draft? 
Bedard is great. After him though it’s a lot of guys who will be good. And in a few years those guys will be reshuffled as to who are better. 
Are you saying a guy picked at 11OA can’t end up better than a guy picked higher? 

[Provost]

Is it too soon to create my thread about missing the playoffs next season?

 

… I guess I will wait for some miraculous offseason moves and lottery luck.

 

OEL and Myers retire and we use that cap space to retool our top 4 D.  We win the lottery and draft Bedard.  Woo and Hirose come into camp and blow the doors off as a physical and steady 3rd pairing.  We go through the entire of next season with few injuries and all our players have career years.

[DrJockitch]

36 minutes ago, Alflives said:

New management completed the core by adding Hronek. 
It’s up to our owner to write the cheque for the OEL buyout. Garland snd Myers will be traded before next season. Those three moves create 18 million in cap space for next season. Lots of room. 
How long did it take Gillis to retool the supporting cast and make those great teams? Next season we will get over 100 points. The season after that we will be like those great Gillis clubs. 
Have we ever had a core five like this?

It’s the supporting cast we need to build out. 

That’s a very rosy outlook that depends on things that are very unlikely or the cost is significant assets from a thinned out draft pool and not great but improving system. 

[Provost]

28 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Where was Kopitar selected in his draft? 
Bedard is great. After him though it’s a lot of guys who will be good. And in a few years those guys will be reshuffled as to who are better. 
Are you saying a guy picked at 11OA can’t end up better than a guy picked higher? 

A prospect picked later is drastically less likely to be a high end player.  History shows that once you get past the first few picks it is just a complete crap

shoot.  The drop off from 5-10 is great than the drop off from 10-30.

 

It is dumb to argue unicorn picks that worked out.  They are exceptions and not the rule.  For every 3rd rounder that ended up playing near the top of the lineup, there are dozens who never played a game in the NHL.

[mikeyman109]

37 minutes ago, Alflives said:

New management completed the core by adding Hronek. 
It’s up to our owner to write the cheque for the OEL buyout. Garland snd Myers will be traded before next season. Those three moves create 18 million in cap space for next season. Lots of room. 
How long did it take Gillis to retool the supporting cast and make those great teams? Next season we will get over 100 points. The season after that we will be like those great Gillis clubs. 
Have we ever had a core five like this?

It’s the supporting cast we need to build out. 

If Garland and Myers are traded with no retention they would free up about 11 million. If there is a buyout of OEL some of that money counts against the cap unless I am wrong here. The Bonus Myers is paid also goes to the cap so its not as easy as saying we rid ourselves of those three and we have 18 million to spend.

I think the real win is first off the Hirose kid. at 24 he looks better already than OEL. If we have Hronek, Hughes, Hirose and another top 4 D man preferably a right shot we are in better shape already. Dumping Myers will mean we need someone to play tough minutes defensively against the best the league has to offer. That will be what is vitally needed again this off season.

I totally agree the supporting cast is where we need help. I am not sold on Di Giuseppe, Joshua, Dries, Aman Studnicka. Di Giuseppe is Tocchets "little things guy" He knows where to go but has hands of stone.

I would like to see Podkolzin make a jump but Kuzy and Mikayhev will be even better next season. I also like Aidan McDonagh as he has the size to be effective up front and looks like he knows how to use it. Given an NHL training camp and some good off season work he looks like a steal.

TD needs to come back and i still think we need a back up goalie that can play more than 10 games a year and not be a liability.

I think we still are waiting for that one more solid D man regardless.

[DrJockitch]

I think the narrative that we are buying out OEL and trading Myers is all rainbows and unicorns. 
Myers will be done with us at the end of the regular season next year. Value isn’t great even with the blah blah blahs, he just hasn’t been good for 3 years. He loves it in Vancouver. Doesn’t take a very smart agent to reduce his chance of being moved anywhere outside of his control. 
OEL may be a buyout candidate after next season or if he still is having significant issue maybe Robidas island. 
18M in cap space sounds great but we need to be prepared to need $20M for EP and Hronek in 1 short season. At least Myers will be coming off our cap then. 
Garland if he can’t be moved is really only viable buyout candidate and even then his contract isn’t terrible like Brock’s.

[dougieL]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Where was Kopitar selected in his draft? 
Bedard is great. After him though it’s a lot of guys who will be good. And in a few years those guys will be reshuffled as to who are better. 
Are you saying a guy picked at 11OA can’t end up better than a guy picked higher? 

This kind of example is pretty ridiculous and absurd. Datsyuk was selected 171st overall. Does that make the 171st overall pick super valuable this year, or comparable in value to that of a first round pick? Is it so hard to believe that it is always better to have a higher pick because it leaves more players on the board for a team to select? Like...what is happening to the logic in this world?

[dougieL]

7 hours ago, Baggins said:

I thought this was a really deep draft. If so how is it we can't get a good player at 11?

 

Honestly...can't get over how dumb this post and posts like this are.

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, mikeyman109 said:

If Garland and Myers are traded with no retention they would free up about 11 million. If there is a buyout of OEL some of that money counts against the cap unless I am wrong here. The Bonus Myers is paid also goes to the cap so its not as easy as saying we rid ourselves of those three and we have 18 million to spend.

I think the real win is first off the Hirose kid. at 24 he looks better already than OEL. If we have Hronek, Hughes, Hirose and another top 4 D man preferably a right shot we are in better shape already. Dumping Myers will mean we need someone to play tough minutes defensively against the best the league has to offer. That will be what is vitally needed again this off season.

I totally agree the supporting cast is where we need help. I am not sold on Di Giuseppe, Joshua, Dries, Aman Studnicka. Di Giuseppe is Tocchets "little things guy" He knows where to go but has hands of stone.

I would like to see Podkolzin make a jump but Kuzy and Mikayhev will be even better next season. I also like Aidan McDonagh as he has the size to be effective up front and looks like he knows how to use it. Given an NHL training camp and some good off season work he looks like a steal.

TD needs to come back and i still think we need a back up goalie that can play more than 10 games a year and not be a liability.

I think we still are waiting for that one more solid D man regardless.

A name I will add to your list is Hogs. While he will be in Abby for another year Klim is developing nicely. Calder playoffs will really help both of them.   Waivers have buried Hogs in Abby or he would have been recalled. His fiesty game has really surfaced. I will reserve judgement on Hronek and Hirose until I see more of them next fall. 

[Ghostsof1915]

I still have trauma from drafts past when analysts were saying "Taylor Ellington was a safe pick". But Nate Danielson of the Brandon Wheat Kings is expected to go around 11.

He's a 6'1" 185 lb centre. 78 points in 68 games. Basement is 3rd line centre, ceiling is Top 6.

 

We could go for a defenceman, and it looks like there's some interesting centres in the 3rd round that might be available. David Edstrom, Connor Lewis of Kamloops,

Edited April 15, 2023 by Ghostsof1915

[-DLC-]

1 hour ago, dougieL said:

This kind of example is pretty ridiculous and absurd. Datsyuk was selected 171st overall. Does that make the 171st overall pick super valuable this year, or comparable in value to that of a first round pick?

 

Is it so hard to believe that it is always better to have a higher pick because it leaves more players on the board for a team to select? Like...what is happening to the logic in this world?

It makes it possible, that's all. I think that was the point.

 

I think you missed a logical point that is: nothing's proven until these guys hit the NHL. Their ranking only goes so far to substantiate their NHL ranking which can be deeply impacted. One of my favourite Giants, Gilbert Brule, is proof of that. It may not be the "norm" for higher picks not to live up to their ranking but there are no guarantees and I'd say the order may change once these guys are slotted in. So it's not really worth crying over (that our team won and was happier upon exit than they may have been). Their demeanour and how they view this team matters.

 

I'm a bit confused by your logical part that's highlighted...could you elaborate more please?

[DSVII]

52 minutes ago, -DLC- said:

It makes it possible, that's all. I think that was the point.

 

I think you missed a logical point that is: nothing's proven until these guys hit the NHL. Their ranking only goes so far to substantiate their NHL ranking which can be deeply impacted. One of my favourite Giants, Gilbert Brule, is proof of that. It may not be the "norm" for higher picks not to live up to their ranking but there are no guarantees and I'd say the order may change once these guys are slotted in. So it's not really worth crying over (that our team won and was happier upon exit than they may have been). Their demeanour and how they view this team matters.

 

I'm a bit confused by your logical part that's highlighted...could you elaborate more please?

He is saying there is value to be had in the higher position in the draft since the earlier you pick, there are more of these elite players are available on the board. So you have a much higher chance of hitting on these players. That's what he means. That's why GMs have to pay to move up before draft day. 

 

You still want the higher pick due to the distribution of where talent falls in the draft. Stacked right at the beginning.

 

Here was a fun little exercise I did a few years back

 

Left to Right (1st to 230ish overall picks)

 

So the further left you draft, the more orange sticks are out there available for you to walk away and be happy with.

(note the distribution of the star players too and how rare they are after the 1st 100 sticks)

 

Stats are up to 2017 season from Hockeydb.

Therefore it is logical, before a draft, to load up on as many picks as possible and as high a pick as possible. To increase your odds of walking away from the draft with an NHL player.

 

Even a jump as small as 5 spots in the 1st round from 5th to 11th is a significant drop in value. 

 

Going by historical trade data, people can actually assign values to draft picks in the draft.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2023 by DSVII

[.Naslund]

I get an increasingly uneasy feeling in my gut that we’re going to trade this pick…

[Sophomore Jinx]

5 minutes ago, .Naslund said:

I get an increasingly uneasy feeling in my gut that we’re going to trade this pick…

Me too. I think when the dorks in the FO see WSH or DET take Reinbacher, they'll probably trade down so they can take Pellikka, or even worse, take him at #11 

[Baggins]

4 hours ago, dougieL said:

Hahaha what a simple-minded statement. A deep draft means you can get good players farther into the draft. It doesn't mean that there isn't a steep drop-off from top 5 to 11th. Are you really trying to argue that having the 11th pick is just as good as having #5 or #8 or even #10? You're not really that senseless, are you?

 

 

 

What a simple minded statement. How often is the a player better than those drafted above him? If you did a re-draft from drafts 5+ years ago would the actual order remain the same in the top 20? Never. The truth is it's a crap shoot. I simply don't have the loser mentality. You always play to win. If you can't get a good player at 11 why do you guys whine so much about trading a 2nd rounder? It's crybaby loser nonsense because it's just crossing your fingers and hoping your magic beans.become something. Even top 5 players don't turn out to be much. Which is why I just don't worry about it. Your ride is waiting...

[Baggins]

2 hours ago, dougieL said:

Honestly...can't get over how dumb this post and posts like this are.

I can't get over patheticly whiney tank crowd posts are.