Coconuts Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, IBatch said: For additional data - 1990-2010 a late first (think Brocks area) all the way until at or near the second round worked out virtually identical - both decades, with ballooning staffs as well. The number of hits, average games played and quality of high end talent. A first sounds sexy, this is one set of statistics that I for one found interesting. Maybe that's changed a little - we are close to being able to add another five years of data into the mix anyways. Every year guys disappoint and surprise in this range. Rather have two lottery tickets then just one. In this case. Now using one of those to move up to get someone with either our first this year or NYI needs to be considered as well. Figure a Second for Schenn is a pretty good deal on its own for a rental. Appreciate seeing thinking outside the box. Two seconds gives us modest odds of finding one 100 game NHLer with 2twice the odds that one of them is just as good as something in the 23-32 range. It's always interesting to see the data, I wonder how it'll shift But yeah, two 2nd's is good too and I'd be fine with it I just hope we use them if it comes to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 The VAN 2nd is going to just be a handful of spots after BOS's and TB's 1st, so the Canucks are basically giving Schenn to them for free? Calgary makes the most sense for Schenn's family reasons and the Flames' pick could be around #20. Probably get Simashev, Reinbacher or Dragicevic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Randomly musing... Garland & Schenn Cowtown: UglyLooch, 1st rounder, & 2024 pick(ranging from 3rd - 5th rd; depending upon their PO progress & Garland's contributions) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Higgins Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 This feels more like draft day deals, if theres a player we really want. I’m a bigger fan of more picks instead of just moving up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.I.A.H.N Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 hours ago, Coconuts said: These potential trades are based on an assumed willingness to move both Schenn and this season's 2nd for a 1st round pick. I don't like trading high picks but I'm receptive to trying to upgrade our high picks. Schenn likely doesn't return a 1st on his own imo, but him and our 2nd? I could see it. I'd easily value a 1st from the range of 20-32 over Schenn and our 2nd. I do think it'd be worth moving Schenn even if it wound up being a jump of 7-8 spots up. Proposal 1 To Boston Luke Schenn 2023 2nd To Vancouver Boston's 2023 1st To Calgary Luke Schenn 2023 2nd To Vancouver 2023 1st To Tampa Luke Schenn 2023 2nd To Vancouver 2025 1st To Winnipeg 2023 2nd Luke Schenn To Vancouver 2023 1st Nice job @Coconuts.......did you consider.......... Maybe taking the Calgary 2nd for Schenn and then trading our 2nd and our 3rd for Boston's 1st................? That gives us Our 1st (6th OA) NYI 1st (13th OA) Boston 1st (26th OA) (Hoping!) Calgary's 2nd (50th OA) (Praying!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YEGCanuck Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Yeah sign me up, I would do a trade like that in a minute. My only caveat is that Luke agrees to return to the Canucks for the next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 hours ago, NUCKER67 said: The VAN 2nd is going to just be a handful of spots after BOS's and TB's 1st, so the Canucks are basically giving Schenn to them for free? Calgary makes the most sense for Schenn's family reasons and the Flames' pick could be around #20. Probably get Simashev, Reinbacher or Dragicevic. Nah, it'd be roughly two 2nd's for a 1st. That's what I value Schenn at, a 2nd. Depends on the trade partner really, obviously Calgary would be the ideal trade partner for this sort of deal as I don't expect them to go as deep as the other teams. But hey, Boston or Winnipeg could lose in the 2nd round. I value a 16-32 1st over a 2nd, I reckon we'll pick 5-7 anyway so it could be a reasonable jump. It's a bit of a gamble depending on who you trade with and how far you think they'll get, sure. 1 hour ago, J.I.A.H.N said: Nice job @Coconuts.......did you consider.......... Maybe taking the Calgary 2nd for Schenn and then trading our 2nd and our 3rd for Boston's 1st................? That gives us Our 1st (6th OA) NYI 1st (13th OA) Boston 1st (26th OA) (Hoping!) Calgary's 2nd (50th OA) (Praying!) I'd be open to trading for Boston's 1st, absolutely. I don't see them as a surefire bet to make the final, they could go out at any time. Upsets happen. Could end up being like the 22nd pick or something for all we know. I think they'd value Schenn over an additional 2nd though as he's a tangible asset who can help them come playoff time. 1 hour ago, YEGCanuck said: Yeah sign me up, I would do a trade like that in a minute. My only caveat is that Luke agrees to return to the Canucks for the next season. I think there's a strong chance he will if he's traded, guess we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 hours ago, smithers joe said: taking into account, schenn family situation, i'ld only trade him to calgary. wife can't fly now and i'm sure luke would want to be with her at this time. luke's been a good soldier so we should be good generals. If so, then we should just re-sign him for 2 more years and keep him here. We could use some defensive depth. He's loyal to Vancouver and I don't see the point in trying so hard to exploit that for a depth trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Yeah good idea, I wouldn't mind packaging our 3rd to get a late 1st. I worry giving a 2nd + Schenn for a 1st only really jumps like 5-10 spots and realistically, a good player is going to fall out of such a deep first round (a bit like Raty) in which case a high 2nd and late 1st are almost the same. Schenn's value alone is surely worth a high-to-mid 2nd. The value of keeping him for another year or two can't be under-stated though on this team, especially if we find a way to get younger and get some sort of defensive prospects in this team. My goal would be to build around him rather than trade him, but we'd have to look at trades elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, Coconuts said: It's always interesting to see the data, I wonder how it'll shift But yeah, two 2nd's is good too and I'd be fine with it I just hope we use them if it comes to it I don't think it will change much. Problem with the 18 year old draft instead of 20 is you don't know what you're going to get. Given round to round from 1990-2010 was virtually identical, with very little statistical difference (despite scouting and development staffs 3-5 times larger) ... it's hard to imagine it changing much. Just like analytics hasn't won any cups yet. 2010 guys are 30-31 now...Look forward to seeing if adding analytics changed anything, I suspect it did not at all. Edited February 21, 2023 by IBatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 By pick 25 the success rate is essentially a moot point from then to the second round. the 38 and 55 pick have had more success than the 27th. One weird anomaly is the 15th overall pick being almost cursed. Unfortunately I think we also fell into that last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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