TheRussianRocket. Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 2011 Lineup Daniel (104 points) - Henrik (94 points) - Burrows (48 points) Raymond (39 points) - Kesler (73 points) - Samuelsson (50 points) Torres (29 points) - Malhotra (30 points) - Hansen (29 points) Tambellini (17 points) - Bolduc (4 points) - Glass (10 points) Higgins (5 points), Hodgson (2 points), Volpatti (2 points), Lapierre (1 point) Hamhuis (23 points) - Bieksa (22 points) Edler (33 points) - Ehrhoff (50 points) Ballard (7 points) - Salo (7 points) Rome (5 points), Alberts (7 points) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2014 Projected Lineup [points based off last years production and likelihood for this year] Daniel (70 points) - Henrik (77 points) - Vrbata (60 points) Burrows (46 points) - Bonino (53 points) - Kassian (39 points) Higgins (29 points) - Vey (21 points) - Hansen (22 points) Matthias (19 points) - Richardson (20 points) - Dorsett (11 points) Sestito (6 points), Jensen (14 points), Archibald (4 points) Hamhuis (24 points) - Bieksa (25 points) Edler (31 points) - Tanev (22 points) Sbisa (14 points) - Corrado (9 points) Stanton (10 points), Weber (7 points) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011 Points: 691 Points 2014 Projected Points: 633 Points, give or take a few Difference: -60 or so points ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cons: - have no offensive-puckmoving dman with departure of Hoff - no faceoff & PK specialists with Kesler + Malhotra gone - best players are past their career years ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pros: - will be able to run 4 lines with new coach = more points on each line - youth being introduced to the team slowly with Vey and Corrado - defense pairs have proper lefthanded & righthanded dman sets ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overall: Not that bad of a team considering what it just went through being shaken up. Biggest difference comparing the 2 teams is we lose big time players who were threats in their specific areas (Kesler, Malhotra, Torres, Hoff) that gave us an advantage. This years roster will hopefully be a lot more well-rounded and depth will be heavily relied upon to make up for losses like Kesler and so forth. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex425 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 I don't think we'll be close to that team but we do have a better 4th line and depth players. Miller and Lack has the potential to be Luongo Schneider 2.0 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Langdon Algur Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 I think Horvat has a good chance of making the team and getting between 35 to 45 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pears Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 We won't be as good as the 2011 team in terms of offensive production, but if we get the Ryan Miller of old and Lack continues to develop, our goaltending could challenge Luongo/Schneider of that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHatnDart Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Tough to compare the two teams really. If your projections hold up, 58 overall less points is really not too shabby considering that was a championship level elite team. I think you'll see your projected point totals for Vrbata slightly higher, IF our PP finds itself again. Nothing has got to be more deflating than not being able to score on the man advantage. Not only that, teams will begin taking liberties against us, knowing we can't bury the puck. I hope WD sees this and makes sure we actually practice the darn thing. All in all pretty good assessment. I'm hoping Kassian hits the 45-50 point range that we all keep wishing for. Need him to finally play consistent and that consistency will translate to a breakout year for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHatnDart Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Also, I think you've undervalued Higgins a bit. He had 39 points last year. No reason he can't be near that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jägermeister Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 This team isn't nearly as good as our 2011 one. We're on the playoff bubble. Our team in 2011 ran away with the league. Hardly even comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakeNbake Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 In my opinion, if you look at the key team stats of that 2011 team, if they would have won game 7 and won the cup, you could argue that the 2011 Canucks had one of the best seasons of any NHL team, ever...up there with 2002 detroit redwings...I know that might be a stretch for some, and I can agree that on paper, there were a lot bigger names on the 02 Redwings...but again...if you look at the stats, the pp, the pk, goals for, goals against, president's trophy etc.....we'd be lucky to see a Canucks team have a season like that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c00kies Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Also, I think you've undervalued Higgins a bit. He had 39 points last year. No reason he can't be near that again. He did get quite a bit of 2nd line time last year though, so if he gets that time again he'll likely match the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHatnDart Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 He did get quite a bit of 2nd line time last year though, so if he gets that time again he'll likely match the total. That's a good point. But when you consider the fact that this team looks to be aiming at spreading the minutes around I don't think it'll hurt his point totals that much. Just looked it up..his average per game TOI was 19 minutes last year. I agree that won't be sustained. However, 2 years before that his average TOI was 16 minutes, which is more realistic, and he scored 43 points in 71 games. He's got the skill to score, no doubt. I'm just saying, a drop of 10 points is a little high IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasCanuck Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 I think you're pretty close on your estimates for this year. Under new coaching, I think Kassian will surprise some people and become much more consistent this year and will crack 50 points. From Jan 1st to the end of the year, I thought he was one of the better guys on the ice, most nights at least. This years team won't be as strong on the first line and second lines, but they will be better on third and forth lines and with rolling 4 lines, might gain more overall consistency this year as a group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 While the 2011 team clearly had more skill, this team is a more physical team, much better equipped size and truculence wise to play in the West. This is the beginning of another ascent. Patience people. Benning may still try to trade for some big pieces in the next couple of years. This team now has architects that know how to build a contender over the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHatnDart Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 While the 2011 team clearly had more skill, this team is a more physical team, much better equipped size and truculence wise to play in the West. This is the beginning of another ascent. Patience people. Benning may still try to trade for some big pieces in the next couple of years. This team now has architects that know how to build a contender over the long term. Well said. I mentioned something similar about Benning somewhere or other, about the fact that he doesn't seem to be afraid of pulling the trigger. I like that. Whether those moves pay dividends remains to be seen of course, but I'm optimistic. It's hard to be patient this summer I'm finding. Training camp can't get here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
»ғʀᴇsϟᴘʀıɴcᴇ« Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 I think a huge difference between the teams are the prospect pools. In 2011 we had a weak one with Hodgson, Schroeder, Tanev being are best prospects (Shirkov lol). Whereas in 2014 we have guys like Horvat, Virtanen, Shinkaruk, Corrado etc. Im pretty excited with this team moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanuckFanForever1123 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 The two things that really stick out to me is our lack of an Ehrhoff type of defenseman, and to me Miller is nowhere near Luongo. I think this team will be better than people expect, but I don't see 2011 status coming close. I also think if that 3rd line sticks all season and all 3 are healthy, each will get over 30 points. I think your estimates on that line are definitely being conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herberts Vasiljevs Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 We won't be anywhere near as talented as the '11 team, but if everything works out for us (Miller/Lack play well and are finally free of too many major injures), we'll be in a top-5 playoff spot before anyone saw it coming. Amazing to think that when everything was clicking for us around Christmas, we were third in the west.... I think too many people are comparing this next years team solely on where we finished last year, even though it was in result of one horrendous stretch where we had less than ten wins after the new year. The messed up thing is that we weren't even far out of the playoffs despite the absolute catastrophe. Vancouver will be in the playoffs again. Just watch. Sorry to get off topic... Lol. I just think that if we compare next years roster to the one in 2011 too much and want something close, we will be severely disappointed. However, I don't think we will be TOO far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Also, I think you've undervalued Higgins a bit. He had 39 points last year. No reason he can't be near that again. Assuming he's here all season, I'm hoping Higgins can match last season's production and score around 40 points in 2014-15. However, there are several reasons why this could be in doubt: 1) Kesler trade: Since coming to Vancouver, Higgins has played roughly 50% of his minutes (and scored about 1/2 his points) playing alongside Kesler. With Kesler gone, Higgins has lost his best and most familiar linemate. And with the other changes, he's become far less likely to be given quality minutes in the top-six. 2) Santorelli & Lapierre: Another 25% of Higgins' total minutes (and points) as a Canuck have come when he played with either Santorelli or Lapierre. So that brings the total to 75% of Higgins' minutes and points (from lines centered by now departed players). There are very few players remaining on this team with whom Higgins has proven chemistry and familiarity as linemates. 3) Higgins has a career pattern of following "good years" with "bad years." Other than 2006-07 and 2007-08 (with Montreal), he's never carried his production from one season into the next season. 2013-14 was a "good year" for Higgins. His past numbers suggest he could very well drop to something around a 25 point season in 2014-15 (if the "good year/bad year" pattern holds true). Hopefully he can overcome the above factors and maintain his 0.50 points/game (from 2013-14). But there are certainly reasons to suspect he'll have a comparably "off" year in 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHatnDart Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Assuming he's here all season, I'm hoping Higgins can match last season's production and score around 40 points in 2014-15. However, there are several reasons why this could be in doubt: 1) Kesler trade: Since coming to Vancouver, Higgins has played roughly 50% of his minutes (and scored about 1/2 his points) playing alongside Kesler. With Kesler gone, Higgins has lost his best and most familiar linemate. And with the other changes, he's become far less likely to be given quality minutes in the top-six. 2) Santorelli & Lapierre: Another 25% of Higgins' total minutes (and points) as a Canuck have come when he played with either Santorelli or Lapierre. So that brings the total to 75% of Higgins' minutes and points (from lines centered by now departed players). There are very few players remaining on this team with whom Higgins has proven chemistry and familiarity as linemates. 3) Higgins has a career pattern of following "good years" with "bad years." Other than 2006-07 and 2007-08 (with Montreal), he's never carried his production from one season into the next season. 2013-14 was a "good year" for Higgins. His past numbers suggest he could very well drop to something around a 25 point season in 2014-15 (if the "good year/bad year" pattern holds true). Hopefully he can overcome the above factors and maintain his 0.50 points/game (from 2013-14). But there are certainly reasons to suspect he'll have a comparably "off" year in 2014-15. You really took the wind out of my sails with all that. Thanks lol. Seriously though, worrisome stats, and good to point out about his line mates, I didn't really think that through. However, assuming he's 3rd line (where I have him projected) and with some 2nd PP minutes there's no reason to me he still can't get to the mid 30's. The guy works hard with and without the puck, and knows how to find the back of the net. I think we'll see Higgins, Hansen and Burrows flipping back and forth between 2nd and 3rd line depending on who's hot and who's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRussianRocket. Posted August 8, 2014 Author Share Posted August 8, 2014 Yea, just put down Higgins ratings to be safe. Considering he'll likely be playing with a rookie centre, it'll be hard for him to mesh with him and he won't have the likes of Kesler helping him. As for the 2011 team, not comparing to hope we become them, just to see where we stand in comparison and it's not as bad as people thought. Actually very well rounded and we'll be a stronger team with healthy legs on the bench rolling 4 lines. Team has the ability to raise a lot of eyebrows and I'm excited for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHatnDart Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Yea, just put down Higgins ratings to be safe. Considering he'll likely be playing with a rookie centre, it'll be hard for him to mesh with him and he won't have the likes of Kesler helping him. As for the 2011 team, not comparing to hope we become them, just to see where we stand in comparison and it's not as bad as people thought. Actually very well rounded and we'll be a stronger team with healthy legs on the bench rolling 4 lines. Team has the ability to raise a lot of eyebrows and I'm excited for this season. A rookie centre? Who's your pick for that? Vey or Horvat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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