Tanev on TSN's Top 10 "Poster Boys" of Analytics

[touchable]

Article from Travis Yost of TSN:

http://www.tsn.ca/yost-poster-boys-and-punching-bags-of-analytics-1.90956

From Jack Johnson to David Bolland and from Jakub Voracek to Mikael Backlund, they are the punching bags and poster boys of analytics. TSN.ca's Travis Yost provides his lists of the top 10 in each category and why, in particular, Andrew MacDonald, Ryan Callahan, Chris Tanev and Jimmy Howard deserve to be singled out.

Analytic Poster Boys: Players whose actual value exceeds perceived value

1. F Jakub Voracek, Phi: Excellent scorer, quietly a massive positive possession player at even-strength.

2. D Marc-Edouard Vlasic, SJ: Blueline rock has morphed into reliable first-pairing type at reasonable cost.

3. F Max Pacioretty, Mon: Only Ovechkin, Kane & Neal had more shot attempts than Pacioretty last 3 years.

4. F Patrice Bergeron, Bos: Almost certainly the best two-way forward in the sport. Enough said.

5. D Mark Giordano, Cgy: Giordano led Calgary to respectable offensive zone time numbers in Norris-calibre 2013-2014.

6. F Benoit Pouliot, Edm: Among 16 forwards to have Goal% in excess of 60% over last 3 years. Same class as Toews & Crosby.

7. G Jimmy Howard, Det: Excellent even-strength goaltender who looks like lock to bounce back in 2014-2015.

8. D Chris Tanev, Van: Numbers suggest reliable, effective (and underrated) top-four defender.

9. F Mathieu Perreault, Wpg: Quality possession player with gift for generating shot attempts in home plate scoring area.

10. F Mikael Backlund, Cgy: Only 1000-plus minute forward on Flames to record better-than-even Corsi% (51.4%) last 3 years.

Analytic Punching Bags: Players whose perceived value exceeds actual value.

1. D Jack Johnson, CBJ: Columbus significantly better team with JJ off the ice since assuming top-four role.

2. D Andrew MacDonald, Phi: A magnet for consistently negative shot and goal differentials.

3. G Jonathan Quick, LA: Cup- and Conn Smythe-winning goalie just 14th in EVSV% last 3 years.

4. F Tyler Bozak, Tor: A passenger who has earned first-line role as by-product of Kessel's success.

5. G Marc-Andre Fleury, Pit: EVSV% last 3 years sits behind Neuvirth, Garon, Budaj & Bryzgaolov.

6. D. Brooks Orpik, Was: Defensive defenseman ineffective at deterring scoring chances or zone time against.

7. F Ryan Callahan, NYR: Decent, hard-working second-line winger paid to contribute like a top-tier goal-scorer.

8. F Milan Lucic, Bos: Negative possession player in Bruins even-strength machine.

9. F Chris Stewart, Buf: Weak 5-on-5 player whose only discernible value is raw shooting talent.

10. F David Bolland, Fla: A third or fourth line center being paid to log first or second line minutes.

Analytic Poster Boy: D Chris Tanev, Vancouver Canucks

Chris Tanev’s an interesting player in that his underlying numbers scream full-time, top-four NHL defender, and yet the Vancouver Canucks appear a bit reluctant to commit to him long-term. I think part of it is due to the fact that he only has one full year of NHL experience, and the other part of it is probably tied into him sitting behind names like Alex Edler, Kevin Bieksa, and Dan Hamhuis. All three of those are household names. Chris Tanev, on the other hand, went undrafted and has logged all of 156 games at the NHL-level.

The last three years of Tanev have been quietly excellent, though. Let’s go ahead and grab a quick list of defenders who have played at least 2000-minutes at even-strength over the last three years. We will set three parameters: the defender must have enjoyed better than break-even possession (i.e., a Corsi% above 50%), the defender must have enjoyed better than break-even goal-scoring (i.e., a Goal% above 50%), and the defender must have been a decent point-producer -- the average NHL defender from 2011-2014 averaged about 0.70 points per sixty minutes, so we will set our floor there.

If we isolate for defensemen who only meet the above criteria, who are we left with?

POSTER BOY: TANEV

PLAYER CORSI% GOAL% POINTS/60

Zdeno Chara 56.4% 60.5% 1.0

Erik Karlsson 55.1% 52.1% 1.5

Slava Voynov 55.1% 55.7% 0.9

Nick Leddy 54.9% 52.3% 0.9

Kevin Shattenkirk 54.8% 57.1% 1.0

Brent Seabrook 54.5% 55.1% 1.0

Alex Pietrangelo 54.3% 56.4% 1.0

Matt Niskanen 54.1% 59.8% 1.0

Duncan Keith 54% 54.7% 1.1

Kimmo Timonen 54% 52.5% 0.9

Dan Hamhuis 53.4% 58.7% 0.9

Jakub Kindl 53.3% 59% 0.9

Niklas Hjalmarsson 53.1% 53.9% 0.8

Dan Boyle 53.1% 53.2% 0.8

Joe Corvo 53% 52.7% 0.9

Niklas Kronwall 52.9% 51.2% 0.8

Paul Martin 52.6% 51.3% 0.8

Kris Letang 52.5% 58% 1.4

Kevin Bieksa 52.5% 51.7% 0.9

Jason Demers 52.4% 50.3% 0.8

Alex Goligoski 52% 53.6% 1

Christopher Tanev 52% 57.9% 0.7

Keith Yandle 51.8% 51.7% 1.1

P.K. Subban 51.2% 55.1% 0.9

Ryan McDonagh 51% 55% 0.9

Oliver Ekman-Larsson 50.5% 52.9% 0.9

Victor Hedman 50.3% 52% 1.2

This is where Tanev shines. With Tanev on the ice over those 2000-minutes, Vancouver earned 52% territorial control and nearly 58% of the goals. And, the decent scoring rate further suggests he’s positively involved in the run of play. Now, look at his comparables based on the parameters established. It’s a group of first-pairing defenders and/or first-pairing defenders who have won a Norris Trophy.

Any bets on whether or not Vancouver’s going to have to pay a lot more next summer, when they are back at the negotiating table with Tanev’s agent?

I find it interesting that the numbers are showing Tanev can be a reliable top-4 defenseman. Last year he was penciled into the bottom pairing, but with all the injuries at times, he did get to show us that he can fill that role. Now, with Garrison shipped out, he'll be able to show if he can continue to deliver as a shutdown guy.

I expect him to log a ton of minutes on the PK this year, and lots of 5-on-5 minutes. Being such a reliable guy defensively, he can be paired with almost any of our left-handed shooting defensemen. Pair him with Hamhuis and you have an effective shutdown pairing to play against the big top lines in the West, or pair him with Edler to try allow him to join in more rushes, with Tanev providing more reliable defense.

If someone like Corrado also steps up this year and makes the bottom 6, that makes the right side of our defense core really strong with years for come, even if Bieksa's play drops off with age.

Edit: Formatting on the table isn't really carrying over well, refer to the article for that!

[CanucksSayEh]

Easily our best defensive d-man last year, heck dman period. Don't expect that to be any different this year.

[aGENT]

He doesn't fit at all with Edler and is too good for the third pairing IMO. Does he bump Bieksa from beside Hamhuis? He's better in his own zone than Bieksa but otherwise is lacking in Juice's other attributes/intangibles (grit, offense, leadership).

Good player that doesn't really have a good fit here.

[Mathew Barzal]

Pair him with an offensive defenseman to pick the slack in that department and we're gold.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Best?

1. F Jakub Voracek, Phi: Getting the bulk of offensive looks on an offensive team. On a different team is he as valueable as 'the most valueable player in the NHL?' No. But he's still good.

2. D Marc-Edouard Vlasic, SJ: Agreed with him being worth a lot, but he's not quite among the elite #1D's as of yet. What helps him a lot that SJ is stacked up the middle.

3. F Max Pacioretty, Mon: He needs to increase his battle level in big games, but the money is good for a guy who's going to score.

4. F Patrice Bergeron, Bos: Didn't have that great a year, has been banged-up in the past and was just extended to a big, long contract. He's good, but it won't be many years until the contract becomes an albatross.

5. D Mark Giordano, Cgy: Along with Vlasic, very good, but not among the elite #1D's.

6. F Benoit Pouliot, Edm: "Among 16 forwards to have Goal% in excess of 60% over last 3 years. Same class as Toews & Crosby." Most regard the Oilers' signing of Pouliot as being one of the worst of the off-season, and this Toews & Crosby mention is quite laughable in that light. Some of the other forwards in this 'class'... Aren't being mentioned... Hmmm...

7. G Jimmy Howard, Det: Meh. The money isn't astounding.

8. D Chris Tanev, Van: He's good with puck decisions, but needs to amp up the size and physicality in order to be a long-term shutdown top-4 D. The money is one year, so...

9. F Mathieu Perreault, Wpg: Not as sheltered or as helped-out in Wpg, don't expect him to wow with offensive numbers.

10. F Mikael Backlund, Cgy: Guy is good defensively, but not that good. Calgary stinks for a reason and they offered ROR for another.

Analytic Punching Bags: Players whose perceived value exceeds actual value.

1. D Jack Johnson, CBJ: Guy faces the hardest minutes on his team. He's not great, no, but neither is Phaneuf, who's strangely missing here.

2. D Andrew MacDonald, Phi: Good shutdown defender, again plays the toughest minutes. The analytics I've seen so far are generally confused when it comes to real shutdown d-man value.

3. G Jonathan Quick, LA: Prime example of why analytics fails.

4. F Tyler Bozak, Tor: Oh dear. Let me guess... Kessel is a legit two-way force as well? With all that fat baggage floating up the ice every freaking shift, I fail to see the validity of this analysis.

5. G Marc-Andre Fleury, Pit: In this case, Letang needs to be here as well. With his unfortunate injury status, it's obvious who's going to be more overpaid out of the two.

6. D. Brooks Orpik, Was: At his current salary, this is a no-brainer.

7. F Ryan Callahan, NYR: Agreed he's overpaid, but TB had to start making some moves to go for another run. And these kind of players don't grow on trees. Context.

8. F Milan Lucic, Bos: "Negative possession player in Bruins even-strength machine." He's overpaid now, but I don't think this is even accurate.

9. F Chris Stewart, Buf: He's been an enigma for years.

10. F David Bolland, Fla: Will likely be far better in Fla than TO and that's the way she goes.

[IBatch]

Give him special team time. Start now in the pre-season and give him #1 PP minutes and PK and see how he handles harder minutes. One thing this doesn't include is quality of opposition - it's likely Hamhuis and Bieksa are used more against opponents top guys - although Edler was misused by Torts all last season which is a big part of his horrible plus minus.

Regardless we need a star stud in the back in a big way, and these numbers show that he deserves a shot.

[Stackin'ThePads]

I'm skeptical of some of the aspects of analytics, but I would definitely agree that Tanev is underrated.

[JeremyCuddles]

Pair him with an offensive defenseman to pick the slack in that department and we're gold.

We have none. Edler maybe, if he isn't broken goods that is. We have no offensive minded d-men.

[MayRayDown]

He doesn't fit at all with Edler and is too good for the third pairing IMO. Does he bump Bieksa from beside Hamhuis? He's better in his own zone than Bieksa but otherwise is lacking in Juice's other attributes/intangibles (grit, offense, leadership).

Good player that doesn't really have a good fit here.

It'll probably be Hamhuis-Tanev, Edler-Sbisa, Stanton-Bieksa.

problem is either Edler since Bieksa/Tanev haven't had success there or Hamhuis makes Tanev/Bieksa better

[elvis15]

He doesn't fit at all with Edler and is too good for the third pairing IMO. Does he bump Bieksa from beside Hamhuis? He's better in his own zone than Bieksa but otherwise is lacking in Juice's other attributes/intangibles (grit, offense, leadership).

Good player that doesn't really have a good fit here.

I think so. Bieksa should never play with Edler based on their previous stats, so whoever else is on the other pairing should be his partner, and then Edler having someone else on his right (whether Stanton/Sbisa successfully convert to their off side or one of Corrado, Weber or Sanguinetti make it).

[Guest Dasein]

LOL'd at Quick being in the wrong list.

[CanucksSayEh]

Hamhuis-Tanev is the only pairing I trust. Every other option seems awful.

[The Bookie]

Any bets on whether or not Vancouver’s going to have to pay a lot more next summer, when they are back at the negotiating table with Tanev’s agent?

that's an interesting bigger picture question too, how much influence new analytics will have on contract negotiations.

I imagine it'll be a gradual increased effect over the course of this entire CBA.

[touchable]

He doesn't fit at all with Edler and is too good for the third pairing IMO. Does he bump Bieksa from beside Hamhuis? He's better in his own zone than Bieksa but otherwise is lacking in Juice's other attributes/intangibles (grit, offense, leadership).

Good player that doesn't really have a good fit here.

Care to elaborate why you think there's no chance Tanev can be a fit with Edler? Keep in mind that things can't possibly go any worse for Edler than they did last year. If he regains his confidence, he can be a very good 2-way defenseman.

[Nuxfanabroad]

Rule changes making it illegal to upset a skater, when diving from a trailing position... Tanev's skating & anticipation will make him even more valuable.

This new rule will really test the Garrison & Schenn-type of D.

[touchable]

Rule changes making it illegal to upset a skater, when diving from a trailing position... Tanev's skating & anticipation will make him even more valuable.

This new rule will really test the Garrison & Schenn-type of D.

Yeah, he's definitely really smart with his positioning and anticipation. Rarely gets beat 1-on-1 and always makes the right play on odd-man rushes.

[Where's Wellwood]

LOL'd at Quick being in the wrong list.

Or maybe Quick is just overrated as hell.

[Phil_314]

It's so good to see him emerge from being an unknown signing to having the potential to become a solid shutdown D in the NHL. In terms of playing style it's good to also have someone who's our own Johnny Oduya if not Marc-Edouard Vlasic, solid if not physical, with the ability to log big minutes and be reliable (they did put up similar points/ game ratios too). Hope he can work on both his shot and passing, so that if he somehow ends up on the PP he could set up Eddie for bombs.

[Mackcanuck]

These Canuck Dman analytics are based on Tortorella's shot block, zone defence, with no breakout, and dump and change at center ice philosophy.

I think Willie will have a very different system in place.

[Robongo]

Care to elaborate why you think there's no chance Tanev can be a fit with Edler? Keep in mind that things can't possibly go any worse for Edler than they did last year. If he regains his confidence, he can be a very good 2-way defenseman.

Yeah, I think such an absolute statement is ridiculous. IMO they will be an effective pairing after some games of getting used to eachother. The Edler-Tanev pairing is what I'm excited about the most amongst our D this year.