(Discussion) TSN's Expansion Draft Projections for Canadian teams

[Hortankin]

In a perfect world we trade Hansen for a 1st or 2nd to a contender and protect both Baertschi and Granlund.. if we don't trade him then we expose both Hansen and Sbisa and hope it's Sbisa on his way out the door. Baertschi and Granlund need to be protected or it won't look good for JB

[Bovechkin]

29 minutes ago, Alflives said:

There is no guarantee that any retool/rebuild will produce an elite team.  Yes, JB deserves 5-7 years to see his plan come to conclusion, but to expect an elite team is the result is just blind faith.  We need to get lucky and draft two elite players, or (in 5 years) we will be nothing more than average.

For sure, I don't have absolute faith in JB or our young guys. Can they be good? Yes. Will they be elite? Time will tell....

 

But we for sure need to draft some elite talent, no doubt there.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Bovechkin said:

For sure, I don't have absolute faith in JB or our young guys. Can they be good? Yes. Will they be elite? Time will tell....

 

But we for sure need to draft some elite talent, no doubt there.

I think most posters are in agreement we need to draft a couple players with elite skill, like we did the Twins in '99, to lead this next core.  The issue is where do we find those guys in the draft?  JB seems very confident he can find elite guys later in the rounds.  Cap NHL history indicates every Cup winning team had at least one top top three drafted guy as an important piece to their Cup win.  The only team that didn't, was JB's Bruins.  Maybe that's why he's so confident?  

[Chris12345]

46 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

In a perfect world we trade Hansen for a 1st or 2nd to a contender and protect both Baertschi and Granlund.. if we don't trade him then we expose both Hansen and Sbisa and hope it's Sbisa on his way out the door. Baertschi and Granlund need to be protected or it won't look good for JB

Bingo....I thought Hansen has a no trade?

[Hortankin]

43 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

Bingo....I thought Hansen has a no trade?

I'm not sure? But even if he does its only NMC that have to be protected. As Hansen will be being moved not traded.. atleast I think that's how it works

[Provost]

If losing Granlund is the worst thing that happens to us during the expansion draft, we have come out pretty well.  He is entirely replaceable.

 

 I would far rather lose him than one of our D.  Keeping an extra D and moving them after the expansion draft to one of many teams who lost a top 4 would get you a dandy return.

 

Sedin, Sedin, Erickson, Horvat, Baertschi, Sutter, Hansen 

 

Folks should also keep in mind that other teams will consider the expansion draft when acquiring contracts, it could quite possibly be worthwhile still if they are contending, but prices for guys signed beyond this year will likely be pretty subdued.

 

In doubt they would do it as it is a little sketchy, but if the Sedins waived their NMC for the purpose of the expansion draft, they would almost certainly not get picked.  Vegas has to fit under the cap and won't want to blow a big hunk of that on a guy who would

likely retire rather than report... or would have to swing trading for the other brother and convincing them both.

[VIC_CITY]

2 hours ago, WhoseTruckWasIt said:

Actually, it was pretty obvious to a lot of us that, despite a slumping spell, he's a pretty amazing player. 

 

To say he was a pretty amazing player before he accomplished anything in his career would be incorrect. Up until he was scratched, he was a player with potential. There was a good chance that he was a bust when we acquired him. Many in the hockey world thought he would never ben an NHL player after what happened in Calgary. But he was a project that JB was willing to take on and although he had some success last year, there was nothing 'amazing' about his 28 point season. It just distanced himself a bit from bust status. But he had an absolutely horrible start to the year and was 100% worthy of being scratched by WD. The Sven Baertschi that we see today is not the same player that we saw the 1st 25 games of the season. That scratch lit a fire under him and now we are seeing him realize some of that potential. I give him full credit for turning things around but I find it funny that no one replied to my comment when it was made 7 weeks ago. Now all of a sudden after Baer has been on a tear 7 weeks later, people are like "I knew it all along". Hindsight is 20/20. No need to be all high and mighty with the I told you so's. 

[WhoseTruckWasIt]

4 minutes ago, VIC_CITY said:

 

To say he was a pretty amazing player before he accomplished anything in his career would be incorrect. Up until he was scratched, he was a player with potential. There was a good chance that he was a bust when we acquired him. Many in the hockey world thought he would never ben an NHL player after what happened in Calgary. But he was a project that JB was willing to take on and although he had some success last year, there was nothing 'amazing' about his 28 point season. It just distanced himself a bit from bust status. But he had an absolutely horrible start to the year and was 100% worthy of being scratched by WD. The Sven Baertschi that we see today is not the same player that we saw the 1st 25 games of the season. That scratch lit a fire under him and now we are seeing him realize some of that potential. I give him full credit for turning things around but I find it funny that no one replied to my comment when it was made 7 weeks ago. Now all of a sudden after Baer has been on a tear 7 weeks later, people are like "I knew it all along". Hindsight is 20/20. No need to be all high and mighty with the I told you so's. 

True, and I usually enjoy your comments, so I don't mean to be so harsh  But to me, Baertschi's good play is no surprise at all.  I've believed in him since junior.  Being swayed in your view by a slump or a hot streak just doesn't seem all that perceptive, but maybe you never believed in him in the first place.  He is absolutely the same guy, it's just bearing fruit now.

[VIC_CITY]

2 hours ago, Hortankin said:

In a perfect world we trade Hansen for a 1st or 2nd to a contender and protect both Baertschi and Granlund.. if we don't trade him then we expose both Hansen and Sbisa and hope it's Sbisa on his way out the door. Baertschi and Granlund need to be protected or it won't look good for JB

 

I don't know...I guess it depends on what you think you're going to get out of Hansen moving forward vs what you could get for him in a trade. Personally, I think Hansen has 3 or 4 very solid years left in him, so I would prefer to keep him. We have to also take into account the effect he has a leader. We need guys like him around.

 

I would see if we could unload Granlund for a good prospect at the deadline. He's having a career year, he's still young with room to grow and can play center or wing. I think there will be a market for a guy like Granlund. That way we can still get an asset back and also get to keep Hansen. Plus I feel like Granlund is easier to replace than Hansen. 

[VIC_CITY]

23 minutes ago, WhoseTruckWasIt said:

True, and I usually enjoy your comments, so I don't mean to be so harsh  But to me, Baertschi's good play is no surprise at all.  I've believed in him since junior.  Being swayed in your view by a slump or a hot streak just doesn't seem all that perceptive, but maybe you never believed in him in the first place.  He is absolutely the same guy, it's just bearing fruit now.

 

Thanks!

 

It's not that I didn't believe in Baertschi, but to me he was kind of stuck in no man's land. Some days I thought he was a top 6 guy and others I really wasn't sure what he was. He's been extremely inconsistent so far in his NHL career. That's not really unusual for a young player trying to find himself, but he wasn't playing with any confidence or sense of urgency earlier in the year. Watching him play these days, I see a different player. To me, he looks like he's working a lot harder. He seems to be winning more battles along the boards and his forecheck seems to be improved as well. His goal against Phoenix was a good example of that. 

 

Anyways, I'm thrilled that he's proving me wrong because MAN do we ever need him. It would be absolutely massive for our franchise to have him as a legit top 6 forward moving forward. If we can land one more top end guy in this years draft then things are looking pretty good moving forward.

[6string]

With 29 other teams in the same position as the Canucks, we may not lose a single body lol.

 

Thers is still a half a season to go, what is TSN thinking of drawing up a list now anyhow, ah yes ratings.

[khay]

This expansion draft is going to lead to a lot more difficult decisions for our team than originally thought.

 

It looks like we will be protecting Markstrom, Edler, Tanev, Gudbranson, Horvat, Baertschi, Sutter, Daniel, Henrik, Eriksson, plus one of Granlund or Hansen.

 

So, it looks like we are going to lose one of Granlund, Hansen, or Sbisa.

 

Sbisa has played this season like a top 4 for the most of the season, proving me wrong. And beyond this season, it looks like he will be at worst a solid bottom pairing with potential to be a solid top 4 pairing. I would hate to lose a defenceman for free. With Juolevi coming up and likely to replace Edler in about two seasons, I would be open to trading Edler for a first round pick + B level prospect/picks. If Edler does not want to waive his NTC (very likely), then we have no choice but to trade Sbisa and at least get something in return. I think there is always a market for a defenceman but given the situation, we won't be able to maximize our return... but it's better to get something back than not. For example, a second round pick.

 

Even if we do trade Sbisa, we still have to expose one of Granlund or Hansen. I love Hansen but I prefer to keep Granlund due to his age. Hansen at 31 is not going to get much better. Granlund might. We could trade Hansen for a draft pick but given the situation, this type of forwards are not going to be get you much back in return.

 

Assuming that we are able to trade Sbisa for a 2nd and Hansen for a 2nd (maybe 3rd), we basically end up with 2 draft picks, lose no one of importance to Las Vegas (say Biega), but lose Hansen and Sbisa. And if those draft picks don't become an NHL player, then we basically lose 2 roster players that cna help now for nothing. So this scenario seems quite risky.

 

If we keep both Sbisa and Hansen and expose both of them to the expansion draft. We will likely lose Sbisa but keep Hansen. This way we lose one roster player but we lost one that has more value. We could swing a side deal with Vegas to have them pick Hansen for say, a 2nd or 3rd round pick. But then, we lose a draft pick.

 

If we trade Sbisa (or Hansen) but not Hansen, then we get 2nd round pick for Sbisa, lose Hansen to Las Vegas and end up with only 1 draft pick. So it looks like this would be the worst case.

 

A bit concerned about this.

 

[Chris12345]

Lots of good points here. I wonder what the value is of Hansen/Edler/Sbisa as most teams will have the same problem.

 

Personally I'd move Edler. If he doesn't accept a trade tell him to go home. Pretty easy.

[10pavelbure96]

With the way Luca is playing maybe the team wants to go with the 4-4 formation 

[IBatch]

On 08/01/2017 at 7:22 PM, Provost said:

If losing Granlund is the worst thing that happens to us during the expansion draft, we have come out pretty well.  He is entirely replaceable.

 

 I would far rather lose him than one of our D.  Keeping an extra D and moving them after the expansion draft to one of many teams who lost a top 4 would get you a dandy return.

 

Sedin, Sedin, Erickson, Horvat, Baertschi, Sutter, Hansen 

 

Folks should also keep in mind that other teams will consider the expansion draft when acquiring contracts, it could quite possibly be worthwhile still if they are contending, but prices for guys signed beyond this year will likely be pretty subdued.

 

In doubt they would do it as it is a little sketchy, but if the Sedins waived their NMC for the purpose of the expansion draft, they would almost certainly not get picked.  Vegas has to fit under the cap and won't want to blow a big hunk of that on a guy who would

likely retire rather than report... or would have to swing trading for the other brother and convincing them both.

Most mock expansion drafts come out with teams left with a surplass of cap of over 20 million.  They could easily afford one of the Sedins.  For the most part the players with no movement clauses come with the heftiest salarys and the players led unprotected are relatively affordable.  Sure teams will take advantage of their personal albatross contracts that don't include NMV clauses but Vegas is unlikely to bite on many of these except to help them get to the salary floor.

 

As a reference The Hockey News created a team with 20 plus million available after drafting and even signing UFAs.  They took Pedan from Vancouver BTW not sure why but it just worked with whom they had in their forward line up already from other teams.  Personally I think Vancouver is a bit in the car bird re compared to other teams who need to trade away very good players or risk losing them for nothing like WNP or Fluery in PIT.   The most we are likely to lose is one of Bear Granlund Hutton or Sbisa depending on what Benning does and it's entirely possible one of them will be traded to protect the others for picks or prospects.

[messier's_elbow]

On 2017-01-08 at 2:33 PM, Hortankin said:

In a perfect world we trade Hansen for a 1st or 2nd to a contender and protect both Baertschi and Granlund.. if we don't trade him then we expose both Hansen and Sbisa and hope it's Sbisa on his way out the door. Baertschi and Granlund need to be protected or it won't look good for JB

I'd rather keep Sbisa then Baer or Granlund. Dmen are more valuable. If we lose a top 4 Dman for nothing....

[aGENT]

Trade one of Edler/Tanev + one of Baer/Granlund for an upgrade on LW.

 

Then we likely lose Gaunce which sucks as he has good leadership, intangibles etc but it's a manageable loss.

[qwijibo]

On 2017-01-08 at 5:56 PM, 6string said:

With 29 other teams in the same position as the Canucks, we may not lose a single body lol.

 

Thers is still a half a season to go, what is TSN thinking of drawing up a list now anyhow, ah yes ratings.

That's not how it works.  Las Vegas gets to pick 1 player from every franchise. No matter what Vancouver will lose a player.  The identity and quality of the player is the only thing that is in question 

[GeeHahn]

IMO, ideally you only leave Biega/Gaunce as the options available to LV. This means that you trade Sbisa and Hansen. 

Edler, Taney, Gudbrnason, Sedins, Eriksson, Sutter, Horvat, Granlund, Baer are all protected. 

 

As we'll have Virtanen and Boeser coming in, we have depth on the RW which unfortunately makes Hansen expendable. Regardless if he has a NTC, he needs to be traded rather than left to be claimed by LV. 

 

With Try and Stech stepping up, they provide cheaper 3rd pairing options than Sbisa's contract. Basically Sbisa's contract will be replaced by Gudbransons. 

 

If GMJB, can get picks for these players plus only exposing Biega/Gaunce, this would be a major win for the organization and excellent assset management IMO. 

 

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, GeeHahn said:

IMO, ideally you only leave Biega/Gaunce as the options available to LV. This means that you trade Sbisa and Hansen. 

Edler, Taney, Gudbrnason, Sedins, Eriksson, Sutter, Horvat, Granlund, Baer are all protected. 

 

As we'll have Virtanen and Boeser coming in, we have depth on the RW which unfortunately makes Hansen expendable. Regardless if he has a NTC, he needs to be traded rather than left to be claimed by LV. 

 

With Try and Stech stepping up, they provide cheaper 3rd pairing options than Sbisa's contract. Basically Sbisa's contract will be replaced by Gudbransons. 

 

If GMJB, can get picks for these players plus only exposing Biega/Gaunce, this would be a major win for the organization and excellent assset management IMO. 

 

I'd prefer to move one of Edler/Tanev + one of Baer/Granlund, get a young,  top 3 forward back (plus a pick) and protect:

 

Sedin, Sedin, Eriksson, Horvat, Sutter, Baer/Granlund, new guy(if required)/Hansen

 

Edler/Tanev, Gudbranson, Sbisa.

 

I doubt LAV takes Hansen, as awesome as he is, if he is exposed. Older, 'lifer' vet with NTC who goes UFA next summer.... If I'm them, I'd probably take Gaunce in that scenario (RFA and offers them some contract protection, gives them youth etc).