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What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8


TheGuardian_

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His (Hughes) size is a concern though, we all saw him get rocked in the WJC and miss some games because of it. 

 

Plus I heard (don’t know if true) there is a bit of talk Kakko could play Center which is partly why his stock is rising to 1A-1B with Hughes. 

 

I still think Hughes goes #1 though. I’d be happy with either. 

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15 hours ago, Jaku said:

Yes, Hockey Prosect is a great source of information. I have used The Hockey Writers in the past. I'm interested in seeing why Larry Fischer has left Matthew Robertson off of his list.

The Hockey Writers, unfortunately, is extremely hit-and-miss - with some very inexperienced, novice writers who manage to publish with them - which doesn't make all the information useless, it's just that a lot of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

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9 minutes ago, oldnews said:

The Hockey Writers, unfortunately, is extremely hit-and-miss - with some very inexperienced, novice writers who manage to publish with them - which doesn't make all the information useless, it's just that a lot of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Oh i agree. I've used them mostly for draft profiles. There's been a few that have been fairly accurate, but are very inconsistent nonetheless.

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Supposedly the top 15 are considered top players (with the top 3 being on an upper level) and then it falls away after that.

 

would be an amazing story to see the hughes brothers on the same team.  7.5% chance?  Not bad... not likely to win but the problem with the lottery is that nobody had a likelihood of getting in the top 3 - even the top 3 teams!  

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13 minutes ago, canucksnihilist said:

Supposedly the top 15 are considered top players (with the top 3 being on an upper level) and then it falls away after that.

 

would be an amazing story to see the hughes brothers on the same team.  7.5% chance?  Not bad... not likely to win but the problem with the lottery is that nobody had a likelihood of getting in the top 3 - even the top 3 teams!  

Yep, statistically OTT (COL) has the highest chance of picking 4.  Which we’ve already seen happen.  My hope is Benning has a well cooked and thought out list with multiple scenarios, including trading down if he thinks his guy will be available later or there are two guys that are virtually tied, he’s up next and knows one of them will still be around so can make a trade to add another pick (3rd most likely).    So far he’s done an above average job of mining guys in the later rounds, more chances could only help the team later on.  There are five or maybe six guys this year that stand out on a different level of their peer group, two of them are defenseman if he can bag one of those and get a Werenski/McAvoy type we are in for some better times moving forward.  

 

Recently we’ve been one of the worst teams in the league and appear to be in a free fall.  It sucks for sure but at the end of the day if we are going to miss the playoffs, the better odds we have at one of the top five or six, the better off we will be in the long run.  Last draft a half dozen or so guys slipped from the first round and were available in the second, and thankfully we got one in Woo (injuries lowered his stock, early on he was predicted to go in the middle of the first round) the year before it was Lind (21-25) and even JG (some lists had him going 28-30).   If we just missed the playoffs we’d miss that opportunity.  There’s plenty of talent available in the top sixty each year, but the top 32-38 has a lot more potential than past 40, by then the high risk high reward and guys that just slipped are all gone.  

 

Its nice that that we have all our picks going in, and I still hold on to hope Benning can make a deal to add more by jettisoning some of the chaff or even a “foundational” type ha ha.  That’s you Sutter, and even Tanev (maybe TO we’ve all thought about it) I’d rather bottom out if that’s what we need to do, then holding on to guys that are always injured.   Just shedding payroll would be a plus and if we can get a couple second rounders for them even that would be fine.  

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4 hours ago, Elias_Pettersson said:

No one said his skating is weak. He’s an elite skater with elite hands. Has a weak shot, but it’s quick and accurate. I’m just saying he’s no Patrik Kane and Kakko is putting up similar or better numbers than Barkov.

 

Scouts also had Pettersson outside the top 5......

 

20 hours ago, runtzguy said:

Yeah, when I look at Hughes I notice his skating. But its not like its blazing speed. Also, his passing and shot isn't that great.

Well The way I read this, its hardly an endorsement of his skating. 

He must be good at something since they all have him as the top pick. They are not even split on it. Just like Kakko is clear no 2 in their eyes. 

It remain to be seen, but I doubt they are that far off in their views....

 

And for the record, I’ve been hoping for size to go with ability on our top line as well as D every single draft, so you’ll hear no complaints from me if we draft Kakko.... it just doesn’t mean Hughes isn’t fantastic...

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2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Anyone who says his skating is weak hasn't watched him that much,  His skating is elite just like quinn's, his stride is so smooth and effortless that to the average fan, they might not realize how fast he's going.  His hands are off the charts and are able to keep up with his speed, but his best attribute is hockey IQ and vision as he's always two steps ahead of his competition.  He's basically a faster version of Patrick Kane, that can play center and has a stronger compete level...and that's why nearly every scout has him going #1 overall.

Thanks. That’s was exactly the impression I had as well, after reading through everything posted on here FTG. 

I responded to a couple of post that seemed to question Hughes ability. 

Thanks for the good explanation. 

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5 hours ago, IBatch said:

If he can get a D prospect that’s close to his draft position then take it.  We still need wingers, and if he had a shot at a highly touted center that’s slipped and is their BPA then take him.  That would give them flexibility to move one to the wing, and then move him back if someone is injured, give Green options (maybe move EP to the wing and watch him explode for example) and trade options to get a D later too.  I’m not a fan of the positional pick, it comes with risks which we’ve seen twice out of five first round picks (ok six if you include Mccaan) at this point we can’t afford to wait four years to see a first round pick in the lineup need highly touted players that are close to NHL ready etc.   Second rounders can be used for this and should, on guys that have slipped from the first round and are still around.  Our defense is a priority no doubt, but so is our top six.  Can’t win many hockey games scoring 0-2 goals per game no matter how good the defense is.  

 

Hopefully we get our man, and he’s a defenseman that won’t take long...and that we don’t pass up something that will come back and haunt us.

BPA all the way. 

Get D men in free agency or over pay, if BPA is a forward. 

Got to take the players thats deemed the  best prospects... will give you best odds of getting a good player. 

Got lucky with EP, but not so lucky w JV. 

Juolevi was considered bpa or second bpa, when he was chosen, so won’t hang that on JB. 

 

We need top players... in both ends...

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2 hours ago, oldnews said:

The Hockey Writers, unfortunately, is extremely hit-and-miss - with some very inexperienced, novice writers who manage to publish with them - which doesn't make all the information useless, it's just that a lot of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

This ^^ all day long!

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34 minutes ago, spook007 said:

BPA all the way. 

Get D men in free agency or over pay, if BPA is a forward. 

Got to take the players thats deemed the  best prospects... will give you best odds of getting a good player. 

Got lucky with EP, but not so lucky w JV. 

Juolevi was considered bpa or second bpa, when he was chosen, so won’t hang that on JB. 

 

We need top players... in both ends...

Juolevi was not considered BPA. Benning expressed interest in drafting a dman before that draft. I bet you couldn’t find one mock that had Juolevi ranked higher than Tkachuk. I do think Juolevi will be a fine number 2 dman that can log a ton of minutes and put up 35-40 minutes. However I do believe Benning and co were positionally hunting and took their top rated dman.

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11 minutes ago, flickyoursedin said:

Juolevi was not considered BPA. Benning expressed interest in drafting a dman before that draft. I bet you couldn’t find one mock that had Juolevi ranked higher than Tkachuk. I do think Juolevi will be a fine number 2 dman that can log a ton of minutes and put up 35-40 minutes. However I do believe Benning and co were positionally hunting and took their top rated dman.

This, and with how little we had with defense prospects I completely understand why Benning went with Juolevi even if it had the potential to blow up in his face. 

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13 minutes ago, flickyoursedin said:

Juolevi was not considered BPA. Benning expressed interest in drafting a dman before that draft. I bet you couldn’t find one mock that had Juolevi ranked higher than Tkachuk. I do think Juolevi will be a fine number 2 dman that can log a ton of minutes and put up 35-40 minutes. However I do believe Benning and co were positionally hunting and took their top rated dman.

I heard JB say in round one he always drafted the BPA on his list.  I thought Tkapuke  and Sergachrv were better at the time but imo JB went with his bpa in OJ.  I think OJ will prove better than Setgachev but not Tkapuke

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18 minutes ago, flickyoursedin said:

Juolevi was not considered BPA. Benning expressed interest in drafting a dman before that draft. I bet you couldn’t find one mock that had Juolevi ranked higher than Tkachuk. I do think Juolevi will be a fine number 2 dman that can log a ton of minutes and put up 35-40 minutes. However I do believe Benning and co were positionally hunting and took their top rated dman.

I think he was referring to best D-man or second best.  At the time anyways OJ was considered the safest D pick, with the highest floor, not necessarily the heighest ceiling though.  He was in the mix with Chychrun, who started the season as possible second overall pick and then slid.  Sergechev was considered a high risk high reward players and McAvoy wasn’t even in the radar for top ten.

 

THN who does arguably one of the most thorough draft list had OJ at nine, and the first D-man...

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You know I tried the lottery simulator yesterday for the first time just to see how it would go and....

 

Canucks got 1st overall. I am not kidding, I was like.. seriously?? Maybe I should do that on draft day? 

And who had 2nd overall? Edmonton. Of course. Them and their ridiculous dumb luck!

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10 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

This, and with how little we had with defense prospects I completely understand why Benning went with Juolevi even if it had the potential to blow up in his face. 

Personally I doubt he would have drafted OJ, and he wouldn’t have been drafted early either, if he missed the WJs and didn’t participate.  Based solely on his play in London that year I’d bet he’d go late in the first round, possibly even in the second round.  His stock went way up after being named defenseman of the tourney and Benning didn’t go of board much by picking him.  It’s a cautionary tale of taking what happens in the WJs with a grain of salt.  Kakko inclusive.  Puljajarvi was considered at the same level or close to it as Laine and look what happened there.  

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6 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Personally I doubt he would have drafted OJ, and he wouldn’t have been drafted early either, if he missed the WJs and didn’t participate.  Based solely on his play in London that year I’d bet he’d go late in the first round, possibly even in the second round.  His stock went way up after being named defenseman of the tourney and Benning didn’t go of board much by picking him.  It’s a cautionary tale of taking what happens in the WJs with a grain of salt.  Kakko inclusive.  Puljajarvi was considered at the same level or close to it as Laine and look what happened there.  

That's the thing with drafting there's risk/reward with every pick. Alexandre Daigle was the unianimous next Gretzky and was just a decent player. 

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6 hours ago, IBatch said:

How about this.  OJ was named defenseman of the WJs on the strength of I think 11 assists and one goals feeding Laine and Puljajrvi pucks.  Prior to that he was a mid to late first round pick and moved up to around 9.   One tournament shouldn’t matter as much as a body of work...45ish points on a loaded London team should be considered too.. Kakko had a great tournament no doubt, and the US floundered at the end.   J Hughes was still all over everyone throughout, the puck just didn’t go in as much.    It’s not the first time teams have read way too much into what happens after Xmas in this tournament, many teams have taken players over ones they should have, for us hopefully Benning has learned his lesson if for some reason we find ourselves in a position to get first overall.

To me, Hughes' game looked on the chaotic/rushed side in that tourney, where kakko looked poised and had better vision and finish.  However JH was obviously not healthy so it was hard to get a good read on him there

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18 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Personally I doubt he would have drafted OJ, and he wouldn’t have been drafted early either, if he missed the WJs and didn’t participate.  Based solely on his play in London that year I’d bet he’d go late in the first round, possibly even in the second round.  His stock went way up after being named defenseman of the tourney and Benning didn’t go of board much by picking him.  It’s a cautionary tale of taking what happens in the WJs with a grain of salt.  Kakko inclusive.  Puljajarvi was considered at the same level or close to it as Laine and look what happened there.  

The jury is a long way from out on pool party.  If the oil get their crap together, they may salvage a very very good prospect.

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