[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?

[inane]

 

[Gurn]

Hoping to move closer/ into  town in a few months. I'll be switching to an electric bike rather than auto.

[kingofsurrey]

Just now, gurn said:

Hoping to move closer/ into  town in a few months. I'll be switching to an electric bike rather than auto.

Smart decision.  Closer into town usually means less car culture and more walking etc.....  Healthier lifestyle. 

[Warhippy]

2 minutes ago, inane said:

 

It's interesting reading this and pouring over the details of the new US/China trade agreement.  It calls for almost $60 billion a year in energy transfers and purchases with a heavy eye towards bitumen rich products.  US investors are expected to start seriously eyeing up Albertan and Venezuelan projects in the near future in anticipation of this.

 

I wonder if we're truly at the headwaters of a new investment strategy across the board or if this will be a trickle over a roar 

[Kragar]

5 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

I read something that said "if you think my spending habits and lack of money is due to buying $5 coffees, you grossly misjudged just how little money I actually make" and it made me think that is the truth.  I don't see as many working class 20-40 year olds buying non essentials as I used to 

Yeah, it's hard to know.  I see a lot of flagrant spending down here, and not just by the 20-40 set.  it blows my mind the money some people waste, and then complain about not having enough saved.  I'm sure there is plenty of generalization going on, especially towards millennials, but that debt has to be coming from somewhere.  If the income is too low, spending (and especially borrowing!!!) has to come down.

 

One of the dumbest things that Canada does differently has to be mortgages.  Before I moved down here, all I knew was having a term mortgage over a small portion of the whole thing (i.e. 5yr term of a 20 yr mortgage).  That concept is unheard of down here, and thankfully so!  Once you have your mortgage here (in every case I have heard of, at least), you care a lot less about the fed rate, because your mortgage is locked in for the whole length of the thing.  That risk that so many homeowners up north are exposed to is scary, and the recent news doesn't help.

[Kragar]

24 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

I read the same study I think.  It was in direct response to the belief that millennials waste money frivolously but showed that in fact millennials were cutting costs everywhere which was threatening industries across the board citing not enough money or not worthy expenditures based on income levels.

 

effectively, the fact millennials cannot in fact afford things is causing industries major issues because they just cannot afford to be consumers of the same variety their parents and grand parents are/were

Do you or @kingofsurrey have a link to that study?  might be a good read.

[aGENT]

24 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

I read the same study I think.  It was in direct response to the belief that millennials waste money frivolously but showed that in fact millennials were cutting costs everywhere which was threatening industries across the board citing not enough money or not worthy expenditures based on income levels.

 

effectively, the fact millennials cannot in fact afford things is causing industries major issues because they just cannot afford to be consumers of the same variety their parents and grand parents are/were

 

[bishopshodan]

9 minutes ago, Kragar said:

One of the dumbest things that Canada does differently has to be mortgages.  Before I moved down here, all I knew was having a term mortgage over a small portion of the whole thing (i.e. 5yr term of a 20 yr mortgage).  That concept is unheard of down here, and thankfully so!  Once you have your mortgage here (in every case I have heard of, at least), you care a lot less about the fed rate, because your mortgage is locked in for the whole length of the thing.  That risk that so many homeowners up north are exposed to is scary, and the recent news doesn't help.

You don't have variable mortgages available?

For 20 years I opted for that and saved a lot. I only recently locked in for 5yr fixed cause the rates are so low lately.

 

Is the overall lending different also down there ( how much you can borrow)? and does that change state to state?

[Violator]

24 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

It's interesting reading this and pouring over the details of the new US/China trade agreement.  It calls for almost $60 billion a year in energy transfers and purchases with a heavy eye towards bitumen rich products.  US investors are expected to start seriously eyeing up Albertan and Venezuelan projects in the near future in anticipation of this.

 

I wonder if we're truly at the headwaters of a new investment strategy across the board or if this will be a trickle over a roar 

You need a balanced energy grid made up of multiple sources in order for your country to be secure.the oil sands are a high cost to produce economically and environmentally but at least you know what you already have in them.Technology is just making it cheaper and cheaper to produce.

[Lancaster]

25 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

It's interesting reading this and pouring over the details of the new US/China trade agreement.  It calls for almost $60 billion a year in energy transfers and purchases with a heavy eye towards bitumen rich products.  US investors are expected to start seriously eyeing up Albertan and Venezuelan projects in the near future in anticipation of this.

 

I wonder if we're truly at the headwaters of a new investment strategy across the board or if this will be a trickle over a roar 

There's a reason that people like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett are some of the largest investors of the rail system in Canada.  

Regardless of all the rhetoric of "environmental concerns", pro/anti-pipelines, etc.... oil will be coming out of Canada and into the global markets.  

 

Bill Gates funds groups that are against pipelines... yet is a major investor in the rail companies that transports the same oil.  A good way to maintain the status quo and rake in tons of cash.  

[Kragar]

5 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

You don't have variable mortgages available?

For 20 years I opted for that and saved a lot. I only recently locked in for 5yr fixed cause the rates are so low lately.

 

Is the overall lending different also down there ( how much you can borrow)? and does that change state to state?

I guess they are out there, but I don't think they are very common.  When I asked the mortgage broker about the 5 yr term of our mortgage, he looked at me like I was nuts. 

 

Anytime I did a mortgage, the rate was fixed for the whole term.  If rates came down significantly, we could re-finance the mortgage.  That wasn't always the best idea, but it can help out a lot.  

 

The ability to lock in for the whole term is a very comforting feeling.

[bishopshodan]

1 minute ago, Kragar said:

I guess they are out there, but I don't think they are very common.  When I asked the mortgage broker about the 5 yr term of our mortgage, he looked at me like I was nuts. 

 

Anytime I did a mortgage, the rate was fixed for the whole term.  If rates came down significantly, we could re-finance the mortgage.  That wasn't always the best idea, but it can help out a lot.  

 

The ability to lock in for the whole term is a very comforting feeling.

Oh, the bolded is a good option. 

 

As I said I have 'rolled the dice' for 20+ years and variable has treated me really well.

 

I don't know squat about American real estate but I thought over lending was a big problem like 10 years ago, recession times. I guess that also includes general over lending, ccards etc too?

[Chicken.]

Just now, Kragar said:

The ability to lock in for the whole term is a very comforting feeling.

Learn someone new everyday... I figured the 5 year term within the mortgage applied everywhere and was designed to protect banks from rate increases over time by forcing the consumer to renew regularly. I guess my suspicions were right, surprised the US doesn't do the same.

 

I need to payoff my mortgage asap.. 

[bishopshodan]

@Kragar @Chicken.

 

Yeah, Krags thanks for the education.

 

I found this article.

https://www.whichmortgage.ca/archived/crossing-the-border-comparing-canadian-and-american-mortgages/223844

 

One thing that  I found cool, despite higher rates  and set up fee's in the States, the mortgage is 'open', you can pay if off at anytime without penalty. 

[Violator]

11 minutes ago, Chicken. said:

Learn someone new everyday... I figured the 5 year term within the mortgage applied everywhere and was designed to protect banks from rate increases over time by forcing the consumer to renew regularly. I guess my suspicions were right, surprised the US doesn't do the same.

 

I need to payoff my mortgage asap.. 

You would think the bank would be smart and not have long term rates i guess not.More of a roll off the dice I guess.

[Warhippy]

42 minutes ago, Kragar said:

Do you or @kingofsurrey have a link to that study?  might be a good read.

Here's one

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/06/millennials-are-to-blame-for-sluggish-economy-raymond-james-report.html

 

Just sub search "millennials not spending causing economy"

 

It's really interesting

[Chicken.]

7 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

@Kragar @Chicken.

 

Yeah, Krags thanks for the education.

 

I found this article.

https://www.whichmortgage.ca/archived/crossing-the-border-comparing-canadian-and-american-mortgages/223844

 

One thing that  I found cool, despite higher rates  and set up fee's in the States, the mortgage is 'open', you can pay if off at anytime without penalty. 

The more I learn the more I feel screwed up here.. I feel like I already knew this but just forgot: 

 

One big advantage homeowners have in the U.S. is that mortgage interest is tax deductible. 

[Kragar]

16 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

Oh, the bolded is a good option. 

 

As I said I have 'rolled the dice' for 20+ years and variable has treated me really well.

 

I don't know squat about American real estate but I thought over lending was a big problem like 10 years ago, recession times. I guess that also includes general over lending, ccards etc too?

Refinancing costs money, so you don't do it arbitrarily with a rate drop.  But yeah, it has helped us out a lot.

 

In a nutshell, the overlending was people getting credit who couldn't afford it... lenders setting up programs to make it easier for riskier borrowers.  lenders make their money, lenders getting themselves in trouble borrowing more than they could afford.

 

 

[Kragar]

8 minutes ago, Chicken. said:

The more I learn the more I feel screwed up here.. I feel like I already knew this but just forgot: 

 

One big advantage homeowners have in the U.S. is that mortgage interest is tax deductible. 

Yeah, this is a good thing, too

 

Edit: Trump's tax plan put some limitations on this , IIRC, only interest on the first 500K is deductible.  So, theoretically punishing richer people

Edited January 20, 2020 by Kragar

[Kragar]

1 hour ago, Chicken. said:

Learn someone new everyday... I figured the 5 year term within the mortgage applied everywhere and was designed to protect banks from rate increases over time by forcing the consumer to renew regularly. I guess my suspicions were right, surprised the US doesn't do the same.

 

I need to payoff my mortgage asap.. 

Maybe the larger customer base takes some of the risk away for US banks??  Good point, regardless.  I was surprised it worked that way down here.

 

As far as paying mortgage ASAP, I'm guessing it is your only debt.  IIRC, all other consumer debt should be paid first.