I.Am.Ironman Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: I’ll use the SPY for my predictions Monday - open at 327, pump to 329, bleed to 323 into the close Tuesday - open at 321, mid day push to 325 and bleed into 318 Wednesday - no president announced, trump contests, markets open at 320 and bleed to 312 Wednesday night Trump refuses to concede but Biden is declared winner, trump demands recount SPY hovers between 310-325 for a couple weeks until recount confirms Biden won and secret service escort walks Trump out of White House CNN shows live video of Trump being escorted out, spy opens next morning at 340 IF all that happens the market plummets more than your predicted 8ish% imo. With all that there would probably be wide spread civil unrest. Edited October 31, 2020 by I.Am.Ironman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12345 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I don't want to start a political war on here but I feel this week will be rough no matter what. Seems like a losing proposition either way. Trump for obvious reasons.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said: IF all that happens the market plummets more than your predicted 8ish% imo. With all that there would probably be wide spread civil unrest. I could 100% see Trump lose and not concede, especially after he cancelled his election night party at the hotel and holing himself in the Whitehouse on election night. I was a little younger back then, but didn't Gore v Bush have to go to a supreme court decision about 3 weeks after election night? Even if Biden wins by a large margin, I just don't see ol Donnie boy making that accepting defeat call to Biden and then voluntarily leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down by the River Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 (edited) Sold off all my holdings that had earned a profit (ABX, BRAG, FTS, PLUG). Will ride out the ones that brought me losses (ARKF, DKNG, EAUT, VEQT, BLDP). Jump back in Wednesday after hours. Edited October 31, 2020 by Down by the River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: I could 100% see Trump lose and not concede, especially after he cancelled his election night party at the hotel and holing himself in the Whitehouse on election night. I was a little younger back then, but didn't Gore v Bush have to go to a supreme court decision about 3 weeks after election night? Even if Biden wins by a large margin, I just don't see ol Donnie boy making that accepting defeat call to Biden and then voluntarily leaving. I'm not saying you're wrong because I totally accept that as a possible outcome next week. I just think that if that does come to fruition the markets will drop in excess of 10%. Hopefully the transition of power, if there is one, goes smoothly. I was young in 2000 as well so I don't know the details, I think it was Florida which was the toss up? They did a recount I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said: I'm not saying you're wrong because I totally accept that as a possible outcome next week. I just think that if that does come to fruition the markets will drop in excess of 10%. Hopefully the transition of power, if there is one, goes smoothly. I was young in 2000 as well so I don't know the details, I think it was Florida which was the toss up? They did a recount I think. Ah sorry totally misinterpreted! Thought you meant it was unlikely going more than 10% in the hole. UK can't make up its mind about going into lockdown or not. Boris keeps delaying his presser. That should also impact the markets Monday. If we get a UK lock down, another France terror attack, Greece earthquake and Belgium and Germany locking down all over this weekend, along with rioting and civil unrest in the States + 100k new covid cases, and the market is still Green on Monday, then these market makers have way too much power. Edited October 31, 2020 by NucksPatsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 22 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said: I'm not saying you're wrong because I totally accept that as a possible outcome next week. I just think that if that does come to fruition the markets will drop in excess of 10%. Hopefully the transition of power, if there is one, goes smoothly. I was young in 2000 as well so I don't know the details, I think it was Florida which was the toss up? They did a recount I think. GOP was pretty much in total control at the state level in that state. I doubt there was much worry of a result of a "recount" about the results when the people "judging" such things were the GOP at least from their POV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said: I'm not saying you're wrong because I totally accept that as a possible outcome next week. I just think that if that does come to fruition the markets will drop in excess of 10%. Hopefully the transition of power, if there is one, goes smoothly. I was young in 2000 as well so I don't know the details, I think it was Florida which was the toss up? They did a recount I think. One thing not being factored in to these predictions is the rising Covid case count. Yesterday saw +99,000 infections reported in the USA. That's an all time high. You have seen a 2 week lock down enacted in El Paso, TX. Talk of lock downs in Chicago. Not to mention what's going on in Europe with the virus raging out of control and several countries enacting harsh lock down measures. In 2000 it was Florida that was the issue. They argued in various courts for approx 2 months about recount measures. Until the Supreme court stopped the recount by a 5-4 decision. Thus handing Florida's electoral votes and the Presidency to Bush. IMO it's foolish making predictions about what will happen next week. All it does is form a confirmation bias. Which is deadly for a trader. People should be listening to what the market is telling them rather than telling the market what it's going to do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: One thing not being factored in to these predictions is the rising Covid case count. Yesterday saw +99,000 infections reported in the USA. That's an all time high. You have seen a 2 week lock down enacted in El Paso, TX. Talk of lock downs in Chicago. Not to mention what's going on in Europe with the virus raging out of control and several countries enacting harsh lock down measures. In 2000 it was Florida that was the issue. They argued in various courts for approx 2 months about recount measures. Until the Supreme court stopped the recount by a 5-4 decision. Thus handing Florida's electoral votes and the Presidency to Bush. IMO it's foolish making predictions about what will happen next week. All it does is form a confirmation bias. Which is deadly for a trader. People should be listening to what the market is telling them rather than telling the market what it's going to do. I just want the VIX to go to 60 and I'm a happy man, let America burn. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 UK announces 4 week lockdown. France started day 1 of their 2nd lockdown. Germany/Belgium contemplating/likely going into another lockdown. If SPY is anywhere above 330 Monday it's a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: One thing not being factored in to these predictions is the rising Covid case count. Yesterday saw +99,000 infections reported in the USA. That's an all time high. You have seen a 2 week lock down enacted in El Paso, TX. Talk of lock downs in Chicago. Not to mention what's going on in Europe with the virus raging out of control and several countries enacting harsh lock down measures. In 2000 it was Florida that was the issue. They argued in various courts for approx 2 months about recount measures. Until the Supreme court stopped the recount by a 5-4 decision. Thus handing Florida's electoral votes and the Presidency to Bush. IMO it's foolish making predictions about what will happen next week. All it does is form a confirmation bias. Which is deadly for a trader. People should be listening to what the market is telling them rather than telling the market what it's going to do. Just fun and games, I'm certainly not married to that prediction. Like you say it's impossible to know the future, and really I'd be better off going against whatever it is I predict will happen lol. For whatever reason, case counts seem to be lower following a weekend. It may provide a false sense of security if sunday/monday case counts are lower than Tues-Sat. There may even be a timely announcement from moderna or pfizer that provides false hope. Edited October 31, 2020 by I.Am.Ironman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 12:40 PM, NucksPatsFan said: UK announces 4 week lockdown. France started day 1 of their 2nd lockdown. Germany/Belgium contemplating/likely going into another lockdown. If SPY is anywhere above 330 Monday it's a joke. Futures are green lmao. Fed will try its hardest tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 DOW up nearly 550 points in pre market Did covid get cured over the weekend? Or did the Fed take some cialis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: DOW up nearly 550 points in pre market Did covid get cured over the weekend? Or did the Fed take some cialis? cases are always under reported over the weekend and there was no real major news... Just election drivel. It depends who you believe though.. Fauci and the former head of the FDA are warning of a very rough November and December from a population health standpoint. This week is going to be wild. However, once the election dust settles I think the covid reality will sink in if cases continue to rise. If Trump loses does a lame duck congress get a stimulus deal done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said: cases are always under reported over the weekend and there was no real major news... Just election drivel. It depends who you believe though.. Fauci and the former head of the FDA are warning of a very rough November and December from a population health standpoint. This week is going to be wild. However, once the election dust settles I think the covid reality will sink in if cases continue to rise. If Trump loses does a lame duck congress get a stimulus deal done? I think the France starting day 1 of their lockdown2 on Saturday, UK announcing they will shut down for 4 weeks again and other stuff going on in Germany, Belgium and Italy along with 100k new cases stateside was enough bad news to at least keep the market level, not open where it just did. I’m still predicting this being a fake and it will sell off once the MMs unload their calls. I have a few blue chips I’m hoping to pick up way below value, even today if they come down to my entry target. But otherwise I’m staying away from even opening my broker app today and tomorrow and maybe Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold2.0 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Sums up the week perfectly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: I think the France starting day 1 of their lockdown2 on Saturday, UK announcing they will shut down for 4 weeks again and other stuff going on in Germany, Belgium and Italy along with 100k new cases stateside was enough bad news to at least keep the market level, not open where it just did. I’m still predicting this being a fake and it will sell off once the MMs unload their calls. I have a few blue chips I’m hoping to pick up way below value, even today if they come down to my entry target. But otherwise I’m staying away from even opening my broker app today and tomorrow and maybe Wednesday. I'm with you on the UVXY ETF as a hedge, picked some up this morning. Market is totally disconnected and covid is trending in the wrong direction. Even if Trump wins the stocks may get a bump but policies will likely continue to not truly address covid, a democrat senate is also likely which will essentially hand cuff trump, if he wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold2.0 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I'm very much watching Amazon to see if it breaks below 3000. It's only done it 1 time since July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, AriGold2.0 said: I'm very much watching Amazon to see if it breaks below 3000. It's only done it 1 time since July. Drops below $3000 and I buy more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 12:24 PM, nuckin_futz said: One thing not being factored in to these predictions is the rising Covid case count. Yesterday saw +99,000 infections reported in the USA. That's an all time high. You have seen a 2 week lock down enacted in El Paso, TX. Talk of lock downs in Chicago. Not to mention what's going on in Europe with the virus raging out of control and several countries enacting harsh lock down measures. In 2000 it was Florida that was the issue. They argued in various courts for approx 2 months about recount measures. Until the Supreme court stopped the recount by a 5-4 decision. Thus handing Florida's electoral votes and the Presidency to Bush. IMO it's foolish making predictions about what will happen next week. All it does is form a confirmation bias. Which is deadly for a trader. People should be listening to what the market is telling them rather than telling the market what it's going to do. Yup, people that know what will happen please let me know what mega millions and power ball numbers are for this week. Usually I am 100% in stocks, this week 33% is cash so I am waiting to see what is going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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