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Analytics were right about Gudbranson


Matt_T83

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Just now, PhillipBlunt said:

And why bring up Yannick Weber? He's like Vrbata. Didn't get the spot or minutes he felt he deserved and became a whiner. As well, he's as soft and ineffectual as they come, in his own end and was easily one of the worst defensemen ever to wear a Canucks uniform. No wonder Poile wanted him.

Weber was in way over his head in the top 4.  Was always a career #7 guy.  Huge misjudgement by Benning.  Reason why I brought him up was in reply to the comment about Benning.

 

Different situation with Vrbata - who should've been a professional rather than that act the way he did.

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1 minute ago, canuck73_3 said:

 

CBA on Sbisa's contract required the salary he's making the two options were sign him with a raise or let him walk. 

 

 

Unless I'm mistaken, I think the raise only had to be 10%.  He got well more than that.  AND he gave him term (which he didn't have to do)

 

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1 minute ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Weber was in way over his head in the top 4.  Was always a career #7 guy.  Huge misjudgement by Benning.  Reason why I brought him up was in reply to the comment about Benning.

 

Different situation with Vrbata - who should've been a professional rather than that act the way he did.

Fair enough. I see your points and understand where you're coming from. That being said, while Sbisa may be making a little more based on league averages for a defenseman with his skill set, he still is doing a pretty decent job this season, and seems to have found a solid partner in Tryamkin. Maybe having a partner of Tryamkin's size and ability will free up Sbisa to try and join the rush. Who knows?

 

All I know is that Sbisa and Tryamkin have been on the ice for less goals than any other pairing. That should count for something.

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heh, I've derailed this thread enough....I'll just say that Guds is the guy Benning hoped Sbisa would be.  Even better that Guds is a right side D (those guys are more difficult to obtain - granted not all NHL coaches will follow the L-R thinking).

 

Future captain?  I think that's a good possibility (him or Horvat).

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8 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Unless I'm mistaken, I think the raise only had to be 10%.  He got well more than that.  AND he gave him term (which he didn't have to do)

 

 

 

He got term cause he was the better option as we had no one in their mid twenties to come in and FA options were all A: more expensive or B: not as good. 

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6 hours ago, LaBamba said:

 

Because when he was here everyone did worship him and now I'm just trying to figure out what changed everyone's mind. I have a feeling it has something to do with this trade. 

 

People like the players on their team. He's not on their team anymore. It's not that hard to figure out.

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4 hours ago, SILLY GOOSE said:

 

When I hear people say things like this I have to seriously wonder........JB was a top 10 NHL draft pick that played over 600+ NHL games and has championship level management and scouting experience.  I think he understands the game of hockey dude.....

 

I'm going to put on my homer hat for a minute here, but I love what Benning has done overall so far. I haven't agreed with every move, but his drafting skill and ability to get assets for nothing is incredible. Especially his ability to find potential in the usual graveyard of the later rounds: Demko 36th, Tryamkin 66th, Boeser 23rd, Brisebois 66th, Zhukenov 114th, Gaudette 149th, Olson 210th and Lockwood 64th. Not all of these guys will play in the NHL and some I left off the list could make it, but the point is to have a GM be able to potentially find diamonds in the later rounds is huge for this teams future. He also hasn't given up the extremely important 1st round picks either when our old GM gave them out like candy. 

 

We got Stecher for nothing and he looks to be a stud that could easily become a top 4 D if he isn't already. Those things just don't happen anymore. His trades have been hit or miss, but we haven't given up a lot to take a risk which I like. His contract signings again have been hit or miss, but overall he's done a superb job taking us from an empty cupboard to one that has some stock and taking us from a defensive train wreck to a solid defense with depth. All the while trading away the stale veterans and bringing in youth with skill. That's not easy to do and yet he's done it.

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2 minutes ago, LaBamba said:

 

Thanks.

"Gudbranson is an average at best third pairing defenseman that 'bleeds shots' and is a 'throwback' to a former age but is now 'behind the curve'.....And he'll cost too much.   And stay at home D are so passeeeeeay!"   Subban is better than Weber, Larsson suckz, etc, etc.  Thanalyticzzz!

 

"Oh yeah, well McCann is a smurf with a bad attitude who bites off more than he can chew....and gained too much weight over the summer.   He wasn't gonna make it as a top 6 here anyway, cause he's already 19 and a half and he looked too young for the NHL throw the 2nd half of last season."

 

Bust for bust, but the Canucks will overpay for their bust!  Cause that's what Benning doez.  So Florida winz this.  Addition by subtraction.

 

Oh yeah, well Willie Mitchell thinks your a fn dumby.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Mattrek said:

 

He also hasn't given up the extremely important 1st round picks either when our old GM gave them out like candy. 

What kind of candy was that exactly?

 

Gillis gave up a 2010 first round pick - that's *ONE* (granted that was a player that was a huge bust)

 

(25th overall - pretty low 1st round pick - Benning has dealt a 33rd overal pick for comparison)

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1 hour ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Huh?  I NEVER said he was trash.  

 

He's a #6 left side D that provides little offense and some physicality.  That ain't worth ANYTHING at his current salary/cap hit  (might of some value had his contract be structured so that was front-end loaded).

 

Dan Hamhuis signed as a free agent with the Stars for virtually the SAME $$$.  Sure Hamhuis is past his prime; but unlike Sbisa, he can adequately step-in the top 4 in case of injuries.

 

There's one problem with that. You're assuming Sbisa would be the same as he was last year in a bigger role when it's clear to everyone he's improved significantly. Would he be a terrible top 4? It's possible, but we don't know yet as that situation hasn't happened. Assuming that he wouldn't be able to do it when he's made big strides in his game continues to show the unfair bias towards him on this board.

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Just now, Mattrek said:

 

There's one problem with that. You're assuming Sbisa would be the same as he was last year in a bigger role when it's clear to everyone he's improved significantly. Would he be a terrible top 4? It's possible, but we don't know yet as that situation hasn't happened. Assuming that he wouldn't be able to do it when he's made big strides in his game continues to show the unfair bias towards him on this board.

I don't share that opinion that he improved significantly.  That's why he still had value because he teases you with periods of solid play which always is followed by his usual mediocore performance.  He is what he is...a #6 guy that you don't want anywhere in your top 4.  But that's just my opinion.  Agree to disagree..

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1 hour ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Unless I'm mistaken, I think the raise only had to be 10%.  He got well more than that.  AND he gave him term (which he didn't have to do)

 

 

Put yourself in Benning's shoes. Let's say he did do a QO and no term. Sbisa would have either done terribly and no team would trade for him or he would have done great and be asking for even more money. At that time they weren't going to trade one of the few defenseman they had, so either way the GM loses. Doing what he did allowed Benning to lock up a D-man at a time we didn't have many. He didn't give out a NTC so if he failed he could try to trade him if needed. If he excels the team gets a bargain. It was a much safer play given the circumstances to sign him to term and to a bigger raise.

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Just now, Mattrek said:

 

Put yourself in Benning's shoes. Let's say he did do a QO and no term. Sbisa would have either done terribly and no team would trade for him or he would have done great and be asking for even more money. At that time they weren't going to trade one of the few defenseman they had, so either way the GM loses. Doing what he did allowed Benning to lock up a D-man at a time we didn't have many. He didn't give out a NTC so if he failed he could try to trade him if needed. If he excels the team gets a bargain. It was a much safer play given the circumstances to sign him to term and to a bigger raise.

Benning already did that with Tanev - a far more valuable player in that he was a right side D.  Offered him just a one year "show me contract".  This was after the disaster that was the Torts season (where Tanev still managed to play well)

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1 hour ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Unless I'm mistaken, I think the raise only had to be 10%.  He got well more than that.  AND he gave him term (which he didn't have to do)

 

A third option would have been to file for "cut down" arbitration and present a case to that Sbisa deserved a 15% pay cut (from the $2.9 million he made in the final year of his last deal).

 

And while we can debate the merits of such a case, there's no doubt such an argument could have been made (and the fancy stats community pretty much offered a blueprint for free in their "worst player in the league" articles on Sbisa).

 

Now there's a gray area as to whether or not the club could have used shot based metrics. These would have been particularly damning for Sbisa (or at least could be used strategically to give such an appearance). NHL arbitration rules suggest only "official NHL stats" may be referenced in arbitration. But the NHL introduced its own fancy stats in 2014 ("SAT" etc), so I think Sbisa's underlying numbers would have become fair game.

 

And I have little doubt that a convincing case could have been made, with or without shot metrics, for a salary reduction (based on the season Sbisa was coming off of in 2014-15).

 

But the 4th option is probably the one I'd have chosen. Just use the threat of cut down arbitration as "the stick" and then offer Sbisa "the carrot" of a modest contract at an AAV higher than what the arbitrator might award (if they found in the Canucks' favour).

 

That all said, in hindsight I'm not all that bothered by the direction JB chose to go in with Sbisa. He showed confidence in "his guy" and rewarded him with a deal that reflected the value Benning sees in this player. And even the most stubborn Sbisa haters tend to grudgingly admit that he's improved since that deal was signed.

 

And while some people might still hate the contract, it's hardly in the egregious range compared to some of the truly bad deals of the past several years. 

 

It just wasn't anywhere near the "best value" possible and there were definitely options available that Benning chose not to pursue.

 

And it's worth noting that there's probably some value to the culture change in management. Gillis and Gilman looked for any edge and were ruthless at times. They used cut down arbitration on Mason Raymond (which would have reduced his salary from a $2.6 million QO to $2.21 million). And using that "stick" they managed to get Raymond to agree to a two year $2.275 million AAV deal (signed before the arbitration hearing). Nice bit of business. But pretty rough treatment.

 

Benning seems to place more value on having guys feel wanted, keeping them happy, and maybe building up a sense of loyalty and mutual appreciation between players and management. Gillis was all about "winning" the negotiation, sometimes regardless of a player's "feelings." And maybe Benning's approach actually serves this club better (at least at the current moment in time)?

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9 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Benning seems to place more value on having guys feel wanted, keeping them happy, and maybe building up a sense of loyalty and mutual appreciation between players and management. Gillis was all about "winning" the negotiation, sometimes regardless of a player's "feelings." And maybe Benning's approach actually serves this club better (at least at the current moment in time)?

That's an interesting take.  Course, one can also argue that Gillis' refusal to move guys with NTCs (unless they themselves asked to be dealt) also builds up a sense of loyalty & mutual appreciation vs trying to strong-arm a veteran player that doesn't want to leave with a NTC out of town (eg., Garrison).

 

Lots of shades of grey here I guess...

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3 hours ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Forsling trade makes me wonder if there's a disconnect between his great scouting talent and his eye on what would constitute a solid NHLer.  Then there's the Pizza contract  (I can overlook him overestimating Sbisa when he first acquired him - but the guy played like crap his first season here yet rewarded him with a large raise & term when he had all the leverage).  Bart from last season (at least that was a low risk / low cost gamble).   Thinking Y. Weber in the top 4 would be a good idea (a career #7 guy).  Not only did that experiment blow up in our face - it had a side "benefit" of lowering the value of Hamhuis for a trade deadline deal (don't even talk to me about getting sweet nothing for him).  And this is a guy who was a NHL *defenseman*...

 

Sometimes moves are dictated by circumstances........

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