Matt_T83 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 For anyone that missed this article that came out just before Christmas, JD Burke posted a nice analysis of the Gudbranson situation on the Canucks Army website.Link: http://canucksarmy.com/2016/12/22/should-the-canucks-extend-erik-gudbranson-s-contract He points out that Gudbranson rejected a 4-year, 16M deal the Panther's offered him just before being traded to the Canucks. He suggests that Gudbranson will be demanding 5M+ per year, on a long term deal. However, JD's analytics also suggest that Gudbranson is underperforming for the 3.5-5M/year range. Given how stubborn Benning is, and the price he paid to acquire Gudbranson, I am genuinely worried that we will shell out 4.5-5M per year, for 5-6 years, to extend Guddy. If the analytics are right, we could be stuck with a 5M/year 3rd pairing defenseman for years to come. Now, some people may say we are rebuilding and it doesn't matter, but rebuilding teams NEED cap space. Why? One of the best things you can do as a rebuilding team is have cap space to take bad contracts. You can negotiate deals with contending teams to trade a decent player (say Hansen) in exchange for prospects/picks, and take a bad contract in return. Taking that bad contract can garner an extra late round pick or a better prospect. But if you have no cap space, you can't do that. The dilemma: Do we re-sign him and just give him what he wants? Or do we take him to arbitration? At arbitration we could get him at 3.5M/year, but probably only for 2-3 years. If we put him in that spot, he will certainly hate us and leave the team ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SergioMomesso Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We will have lot's of cap space after next season. At least 14 million if things go as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 What dilemma? ANAL-ytics say he's doing this, his play says he's doing that. He won't be making more than 4-4.5 million So what's the issue? He might only accept a deal that takes him to UFA and walk? Oh how terrible. So he gets signed and traded or he gets signed long term to a middling deal The only dilemma is the one that CDC fabricates for themselves. The bigger dilemma is trying to force Edler to waive before he's completely valueless or we're stuck signing him through retirement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adarsh Sant Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We seem to be doing fine without him. Hopefully Benning doesn't mess up. However he is a leader in the room and I believe he hasn't reached his potential, so I do want to keep him around. Tough situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanuckinEdm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We would be very foolish not to extend him considering what we gave up, he is also pretty young in the grand scheme of things. Not to mention Biega will be gone next season and there is a very good chance Sbisa gets drafted in the expansion draft. That would leave us with a Defence of Stecher-Edler Tanev-_____ Hutton-Tryamkin _____ _____ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Where'd Luongo? Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 $4 Million in tax-free Florida. Meaning a lot more here in Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FijianCanuck Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Trade him away for a pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_T83 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Warhippy said: What dilemma? ANAL-ytics say he's doing this, his play says he's doing that. He won't be making more than 4-4.5 million So what's the issue? He might only accept a deal that takes him to UFA and walk? Oh how terrible. So he gets signed and traded or he gets signed long term to a middling deal The only dilemma is the one that CDC fabricates for themselves. The bigger dilemma is trying to force Edler to waive before he's completely valueless or we're stuck signing him through retirement Sorry I forgot to add that part at the end. The dilemma is that we could force arbitration and get him for 3.5M/year for the next 2-3 years, but he will hate us and leave the team ASAP. But if we extend him, we could get stuck with a huge lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_T83 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, CanuckinEdm said: We would be very foolish not to extend him considering what we gave up, he is also pretty young in the grand scheme of things. That's why I'm worried... Benning is so stubborn and seemingly idiotic at times. He gave Sbisa and Dorsett raises on faith. Granted, Sbisa has actually improved his play against all odds, but chances are that won't happen with Gudbranson. Benning could very well give him 5M per year, maybe 4.5, for like 5-6 years. I think we should take Gudbranson to arbitration and force out 3-4 years at 3.5M/year. He may hate us, but it's a more cautious approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Warhippy said: What dilemma? ANAL-ytics say he's doing this, his play says he's doing that. He won't be making more than 4-4.5 million So what's the issue? He might only accept a deal that takes him to UFA and walk? Oh how terrible. So he gets signed and traded or he gets signed long term to a middling deal The only dilemma is the one that CDC fabricates for themselves. The bigger dilemma is trying to force Edler to waive before he's completely valueless or we're stuck signing him through retirement Edler will get another contract from us, unless Juiolevi is ready - which appears unlikely. Gudbranson is a friggin stud. He played 26 minutes a game in the playoffs for Florida, and his teammates were shocked with his trade. We extend him a nice fat contract:) Some of us - Alf - enjoy the "drama". Winning is better though. Trade Tanev? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said: Sorry I forgot to add that part at the end. The dilemma is that we could force arbitration and get him for 3.5M/year for the next 2-3 years, but he will hate us and leave the team ASAP. But if we extend him, we could get stuck with a huge lemon. He's 24 years old. Big decent skater. Hits like a truck. Has a decent first pass. If we get stuck with a top 4 defenseman how terrible. If he "hates us" than in a year or two trade him at the TDL for big return. Again, the ONLY dilemma here is the ones that CDC seem to fabricate out of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Everyone cried about Sbisa getting 3.6 and he's turned out to be worth that value. I wouldn't worry about the contract Guddy gets, he's worth it. Analytic's don't tell the whole story and should be taken with a grain of salt not something that should be the basis of reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokes Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, FijianCanuck said: Trade him away for a pick. McCann a second and a better pick for a pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bur14Kes17 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, SergioMomesso said: We will have lot's of cap space after next season. At least 14 million if things go as planned. Not really... Bo Horvats next contract is going up with every single game he plays right now. So it Baertschi's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHL rocks Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 He has played like a 3rd pairing Dman so far with the Canucks no matter how you judge his play, analytics or eye test. Having said that there is no one on the Canucks who could have fought Matt Martin without getting their butt wooped. We need a guy like him on a rebuilding team to guide and protect the kids. JB will have to sign EG considering how much he gave up in the trade. I think 4.5 mill per year on 5 year contract is a good bet. It's overpayment but JB really has no choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_T83 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Warhippy said: He's 24 years old. Big decent skater. Hits like a truck. Has a decent first pass. If we get stuck with a top 4 defenseman how terrible. If he "hates us" than in a year or two trade him at the TDL for big return. Again, the ONLY dilemma here is the ones that CDC seem to fabricate out of nothing Perhaps, only time will tell. However, your reply is inaccurate. He is NOT a top 4 defenseman. If you had bothered to read the link, you would notice he's really only performing at a 3rd pairing (top 6) level overall. He also drags down his teammates, with most people performing worse with him on the ice. In 4 years we could be stuck with a 5M/year 28 year old defenseman that gets out performed by depth D-men making the league minimum, and TWO YEARS still remaining on his contract. That's not a good situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanuckinEdm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Matt_T83 said: That's why I'm worried... Benning is so stubborn and seemingly idiotic at times. He gave Sbisa and Dorsett raises on faith. Granted, Sbisa has actually improved his play against all odds, but chances are that won't happen with Gudbranson. Benning could very well give him 5M per year, maybe 4.5, for like 5-6 years. Gudbranson is 24 years old its not like hes 27-28 he also has been dragged down a bit by Hutton (who isnt ready for full time top 4 yet). I think once Sbisa is gone he fills a major need on our backend toughness. Hutton -soft Edler -soft(ish) lately Tanev-soft Stecher-soft Tryamkin - not really hardnosed but a big body that is strong that could use it alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_T83 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WHL rocks said: He has played like a 3rd pairing Dman so far with the Canucks no matter how you judge his play, analytics or eye test. Having said that there is no one on the Canucks who could have fought Matt Martin without getting their butt wooped. We need a guy like him on a rebuilding team to guide and protect the kids. JB will have to sign EG considering how much he gave up in the trade. I think 4.5 mill per year on 5 year contract is a good bet. It's overpayment but JB really has no choice. Exactly. And he will probably demand term as well, possibly even a NTC. If we give him 5M/year and 6 years + NTC.... that's going to be a major disaster. I say we force him through arbitration and keep him at 3.5M/year, and try to get 3 years out of him at that rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookieeater55 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 analytics eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FijianCanuck Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, smokes said: McCann a second and a better pick for a pick? Or sign him and hope he pans out at over 5 mil for 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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