The Gudbranson dilemma

[WHL rocks]

3 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

Exactly. And he will probably demand term as well, possibly even a NTC. If we give him 5M/year and 6 years + NTC.... that's going to be a major disaster.

 

I say we force him through arbitration and keep him at 3.5M/year, and try to get 3 years out of him at that rate.

How do we know he'll get 3.5 in arb. He might get 4.5 .. Plus I think it's max 2 years we can hold him if we take him to arbitration. Then he's UFA. 

 

I don't see JB taking him to arbitration.. highly unlikely.  

[smokes]

2 minutes ago, FijianCanuck said:

Or sign him and hope he pans out at over 5 mil for 5 years.

or sign him and trade him.

[Warhippy]

3 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

Perhaps, only time will tell. 

However, your reply is inaccurate. He is NOT a top 4 defenseman. If you had bothered to read the link, you would notice he's really only performing at a 3rd pairing (top 6) level overall. He also drags down his teammates, with most people performing worse with him on the ice.

 

In 4 years we could be stuck with a 5M/year 28 year old defenseman that gets out performed by depth D-men making the league minimum, and TWO YEARS still remaining on his contract. That's not a good situation.

No...no.

 

ANALytics say he's performing at X not Y

 

They also say the same thing about a number of players that this forum would gut this team for.  Those same ANALytics show that McDavid is a defensive nightmare, maybe Edmonton has a dilemma on their hands.  They show Laine is not defensively responsible.  The Jets better buckle up.  Reinhardt is producing like a 3rd liner.  Better trade him now Buffalo.

 

ANALytics are literally just numbers that are used to show the probable outcomes or a snapshot in time.  They are not indicative of a players entire career.  Might I remind you that prior to Gudbranson getting hurt we were and still are in the bottom of the league, for 1.5 seasons so far.  In 4 years we could be stuck with back to back to back 1st overall picks too.  but that's a probelm 4 years down the road.

 

RIGHT now, you are making something out of literally nothing.  In 4 years we could very well be stuck with a $5 million Gudbranson, who ends up p[laying like a $6 million workhorse.  Or we could be stuck with a $4.5 million Gudbranson who plays like a workhorse.

 

Stop

Creating

issues

Where

There

Are

None

[Tyndall2]

He hasn't been overly impressive for the first part of the season before getting hurt.  He should be worth something in a trade.  If not, let him stew as he is certainly not worth what he and his agent might think he is worth.  Can we not protect him and let him go to Vegas?  Or, do we make a trade prior to and try and pick up some picks?

[Matt_T83]

1 minute ago, CanuckinEdm said:

Gudbranson is 24 years old its not like hes 27-28 he also has been dragged down a bit by Hutton (who isnt ready for full time top 4 yet). I think once Sbisa is gone he fills a major need on our backend toughness.  

Hutton -soft

Edler -soft(ish) lately 

Tanev-soft

Stecher-soft

Tryamkin - not really hardnosed but a big body that is strong that could use it alot better

 

 

My speculation is that you are actually 100% backwards. I think Gudbranson is dragging down Hutton. The analytics indicate that Gudbranson drags down the play of his linemates, leading to an increase in unblocked shots against.

 

Hutton is young, but I feel he's playing even better this year than last.

 

Gudbranson SHOULD NOT need a tough, 'hard-nosed' defenseman to be paired with. That's literally his job. No one expects him to produce points. All he should be doing is playing strong defensive/positional hockey, creating space for his linemates. But his hockey IQ is almost negative. He's constantly in the wrong spots, doesn't use his size very well, and tends to run around like a chicken with his head cut off in the defensive zone.

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

1 minute ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

My speculation is that you are actually 100% backwards. I think Gudbranson is dragging down Hutton. The analytics indicate that Gudbranson drags down the play of his linemates, leading to an increase in unblocked shots against.

 

Hutton is young, but I feel he's playing even better this year than last.

 

Gudbranson SHOULD NOT need a tough, 'hard-nosed' defenseman to be paired with. That's literally his job. No one expects him to produce points. All he should be doing is playing strong defensive/positional hockey, creating space for his linemates. But his hockey IQ is almost negative. He's constantly in the wrong spots, doesn't use his size very well, and tends to run around like a chicken with his head cut off in the defensive zone.

 

You should stop basing so much on analytics, they are not a way to make a definitive decision on a players worth. 

[Warhippy]

Just remember everyone.  It's all ANALyitics here.

 

I mean, just look at ANALytics gurus in 22nd place Florida and 29th place Arizona to see why this ANALytics thing is important.  I mean Florida went gung ho in the ANALytics dept and threw away workhorse Gudbranson as fast as possible.  A guy they trusted for over 24 minutes a night through their team record regular season and 26+ minutes in the playoffs.

 

It's important to understand that ANALytically, Gudbranson is not REAL GUD at all...and this is a dilemma of cap-tastic proportions.

[FijianCanuck]

4 minutes ago, smokes said:

or sign him and trade him.

Hmm I think we would get screwed either way.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

My speculation is that you are actually 100% backwards. I think Gudbranson is dragging down Hutton. The analytics indicate that Gudbranson drags down the play of his linemates, leading to an increase in unblocked shots against.

 

Hutton is young, but I feel he's playing even better this year than last.

 

Gudbranson SHOULD NOT need a tough, 'hard-nosed' defenseman to be paired with. That's literally his job. No one expects him to produce points. All he should be doing is playing strong defensive/positional hockey, creating space for his linemates. But his hockey IQ is almost negative. He's constantly in the wrong spots, doesn't use his size very well, and tends to run around like a chicken with his head cut off in the defensive zone.

 

What did his minutes in the playoffs show his value to be to Florida?  How did his goalie and teammates react to his trade?  Hes a stud, and we need him.  We extend a big contract to him, and you will like it.  

[Matt_T83]

8 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

No...no.

 

ANALytics say he's performing at X not Y

 

They also say the same thing about a number of players that this forum would gut this team for.  Those same ANALytics show that McDavid is a defensive nightmare, maybe Edmonton has a dilemma on their hands.  They show Laine is not defensively responsible.  The Jets better buckle up.  Reinhardt is producing like a 3rd liner.  Better trade him now Buffalo.

 

ANALytics are literally just numbers that are used to show the probable outcomes or a snapshot in time.  They are not indicative of a players entire career.  Might I remind you that prior to Gudbranson getting hurt we were and still are in the bottom of the league, for 1.5 seasons so far.  In 4 years we could be stuck with back to back to back 1st overall picks too.  but that's a probelm 4 years down the road.

 

RIGHT now, you are making something out of literally nothing.  In 4 years we could very well be stuck with a $5 million Gudbranson, who ends up p[laying like a $6 million workhorse.  Or we could be stuck with a $4.5 million Gudbranson who plays like a workhorse.

 

Stop

Creating

issues

Where

There

Are

None

 

McDavid and Laine are weak defensively... so what? That's literally what you should expect from high scoring teens. Your examples prove your idiocy, because they are LITERALLY true. Again showing your idiocy, there is no dilemma with McDavid or Laine. Why? Because young players almost always struggle defensively in the NHL. And guess what? They also almost always improve defensively. The difference with Gudbranson is that he's 24, but an old 24. This is Gudbranson's 6th NHL season. He's not going to get better, whereas McDavid and Laine will get better. Reinhardt in Buffalo isn't doing as well, but he's also not going to get an insane contract.

 

You are comparing apples and oranges.

 

There is SOLID evidence to suggest that Gudbranson is going to demand 5M+ per year with term. He's worth nowhere near that, and arbitration would definitely force him to re-sign at 3.5M/year for 2-3 years. Hence, the dilemma: do we force him down the arbitration route, or do we give in to his demands?

 

And your comment about "4 years is a long ways away" is horrible and short-sighted. We need to be thinking long term.

[ShakyWalton]

21 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Edler will get another contract from us, unless Juiolevi is ready - which appears unlikely.  Gudbranson is a friggin stud.  He played 26 minutes a game in the playoffs for Florida, and his teammates were shocked with his trade.  We extend him a nice fat contract:)

Some of us - Alf - enjoy the "drama".  Winning is better though. 

Trade Tanev?

make up the cap space by not resigning Miller and run with your young guy...this playing Miller is getting to me..shutout or not...he isnt the future...time to move on.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

McDavid and Laine are weak defensively... so what? That's literally what you should expect from high scoring teens. Your examples prove your idiocy, because they are LITERALLY true. Again showing your idiocy, there is no dilemma with McDavid or Laine. Why? Because young players almost always struggle defensively in the NHL. And guess what? They also always get better. The difference with Gudbranson is that he's 24, but an old 24. This is Gudbranson's 6th NHL season. He's not going to get better, whereas McDavid and Laine will get better. Reinhardt in Buffalo isn't doing as well, but he's also not going to get an insane contract.

 

There is SOLID evidence to suggest that Gudbranson is going to demand 5M+ per year with term. He's worth nowhere near that, and arbitration would definitely force him to re-sign at 3.5M/year for 2-3 years. Hence, the dilemma: do we force him down the arbitration route, or do we give in to his demands?

 

And your comment about "4 years is a long ways away" is horrible and short-sighted. We need to be thinking long term.

Nope.  Gudbranson is a stud.  If you want us thinking way ahead then do you disagree with JB trading away 12 draft picks?  Is that thinking ahead?  

[hlinkas wrister]

Soooo, you would rather have cap space to trade for a bad contract and an extra late round pick than Erik Gudbranson? Sorry, can't agree with that.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

McDavid and Laine are weak defensively... so what? That's literally what you should expect from high scoring teens. Your examples prove your idiocy, because they are LITERALLY true. Again showing your idiocy, there is no dilemma with McDavid or Laine. Why? Because young players almost always struggle defensively in the NHL. And guess what? They also always get better. The difference with Gudbranson is that he's 24, but an old 24. This is Gudbranson's 6th NHL season. He's not going to get better, whereas McDavid and Laine will get better. Reinhardt in Buffalo isn't doing as well, but he's also not going to get an insane contract.

 

There is SOLID evidence to suggest that Gudbranson is going to demand 5M+ per year with term. He's worth nowhere near that, and arbitration would definitely force him to re-sign at 3.5M/year for 2-3 years. Hence, the dilemma: do we force him down the arbitration route, or do we give in to his demands?

 

And your comment about "4 years is a long ways away" is horrible and short-sighted. We need to be thinking long term.

Nope.  Gudbranson is a stud.  If you want us thinking way ahead then do you disagree with JB trading away 12 draft picks?  Is that thinking ahead?  

[OptionalPants]

5 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Just remember everyone.  It's all ANALyitics here.

 

I mean, just look at ANALytics gurus in 22nd place Florida and 29th place Arizona to see why this ANALytics thing is important.  I mean Florida went gung ho in the ANALytics dept and threw away workhorse Gudbranson as fast as possible.  A guy they trusted for over 24 minutes a night through their team record regular season and 26+ minutes in the playoffs.

 

It's important to understand that ANALytically, Gudbranson is not REAL GUD at all...and this is a dilemma of cap-tastic proportions.

 

 I would say it isn't all analytics. Gudbranson has not looked very good this year for the Canucks just from an eye test (not very physical, slow, bad passing). However, I'm pretty sure someone reported that he had this wrist injury all year so I think we should probably wait until he plays a little more healthy hockey before making some judgements

[appleboy]

If Sbisa keeps playing like he is and maybe even improves as he gets older and more stable, he will get 5mil as a UFA.

[Alflives]

Just now, ShakyWalton said:

make up the cap space by not resigning Miller and run with your young guy...this playing Miller is getting to me..shutout or not...he isnt the future...time to move on.

I agree, we should be moving to the younger players if they are able.  I think JB was talking about extending Miller though, so maybe the management doesn't trust Markstrom to carry the load?

[Tre Mac]

17 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

He's 24 years old.  Big decent skater.  Hits like a truck.  Has a decent first pass.

 

If we get stuck with a top 4 defenseman how terrible.  If he "hates us" than in a year or two trade him at the TDL for big return.

 

Again, the ONLY dilemma here is the ones that CDC seem to fabricate out of nothing

So when are we going to see this?  I saw the clips of him playing in Florida and he was nothing like that here.  Pushing someone onto the goalie after the whistler is hardly 'hitting like a truck'. 

 

16 minutes ago, CanuckinEdm said:

Gudbranson is 24 years old its not like hes 27-28 he also has been dragged down a bit by Hutton (who isnt ready for full time top 4 yet). I think once Sbisa is gone he fills a major need on our backend toughness.  

Hutton -soft

Edler -soft(ish) lately 

Tanev-soft

Stecher-soft

Tryamkin - not really hardnosed but a big body that is strong that could use it alot better

 

That's bull.  Hutton has looked fine with Tryamkin and both Hutton and the canucks numbers since Gudbranson's injury prove that. 

 

26 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

That's why I'm worried... Benning is so stubborn and seemingly idiotic at times. He gave Sbisa and Dorsett raises on faith. Granted, Sbisa has actually improved his play against all odds, but chances are that won't happen with Gudbranson. Benning could very well give him 5M per year, maybe 4.5, for like 5-6 years. 

 

I think we should take Gudbranson to arbitration and force out 3-4 years at 3.5M/year. He may hate us, but it's a more cautious approach.

True, but Benning also stated that he's not afraid to move on if a player he acquired is not working out. 

[Drakrami]

This really is a headache tbh. 

 

People who were head over heels over this summer trade didn't realize the headache we inherited. 

[Darius]

Lots of people were complaining when Sbisa got his contract, he sure is living up to it this year in my opinion.  Gudbranson is still young and can improve his defensive game.  In the meantime he brings valuable intangibles to the game.  The D needs sand paper.  This is a guy that can play regular minutes and can be a deterrent when other teams want to take the game to the gutter - a place where recent canuck teams cant function very well.  The kid is elite tough, i think he can take on anybody in the league and come out ok.  But he doesnt have to fight, he can hit like a truck when the opportunity presents itself.