Quinn Hughes | #43 | D

[Gaudette Celly]

He was PPG in the new year, so that should be his baseline.

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

49 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

He was PPG in the new year, so that should be his baseline.

One of those 3 games was against the US National team as well...who seem to be rolling over the college teams....PPG or better looks like a baseline alright.

[The_Rocket]

1 hour ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Sid, and others, you all know more about prospect development than I so I was hoping you could answer this question for me. I went back a few pages to make sure you didn't already address this but I didn't see the same question or your answers.

 

For a defenseman in his D+1 year going into the NCAA in his 2nd year, what level of point production would you need to see out of Hughes for you to believe he would be a high end offensive D in the NHL (possibly - I know nothing is a given)?

 

His 1st NCAA year with Michigan got him 29 points (5g, 24a) in 37 games played or .78 p/gm.

 

I see that Will Butcher had 37 points in 43 games in his last year of NCAA (.86 p/gm).

Charlie McAvoy had 26 points in 38 games played in his last NCAA year (.68 p/gm).

Torey Krug had 34 points in 38 games played (.89 p/gm).

 

For Quinn Hughes to be a high end offensive D in the NHL would we not have to see some unreal points / game from him this year at Michigan like 1.2 p/gm??

 

Thanks for any insight you have!

 

Edit: the only reason I randomly picked 1.2 p/gm is that both Butcher and Krug are close to .9 p/gm and everyone on here is talking like Hughes will be head and shoulders better than those two players. And quite frankly we all hope he would be.

I don’t think you should put too much into his ppg as defensemen who put up at or near a ppg pace in the NCAA under the age of 20 are all over the map in terms of impact. He should be at ppg but I don’t know how much you can look into it in terms of projection

[Diamonds]

I'm not really worried about how many points Hughes puts up this year. It's quite evident that he has a ton of skill and great offensive instincts, so I'd prefer he focuses on the defensive side of the game this year. If he puts up the same PPG as last season but becomes his coaches first choice in important defensive situations I'd consider the season more than a success.

[Rick Blight]

3 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Sid, and others, you all know more about prospect development than I so I was hoping you could answer this question for me. I went back a few pages to make sure you didn't already address this but I didn't see the same question or your answers.

 

For a defenseman in his D+1 year going into the NCAA in his 2nd year, what level of point production would you need to see out of Hughes for you to believe he would be a high end offensive D in the NHL (possibly - I know nothing is a given)?

 

His 1st NCAA year with Michigan got him 29 points (5g, 24a) in 37 games played or .78 p/gm.

 

I see that Will Butcher had 37 points in 43 games in his last year of NCAA (.86 p/gm).

Charlie McAvoy had 26 points in 38 games played in his last NCAA year (.68 p/gm).

Torey Krug had 34 points in 38 games played (.89 p/gm).

 

For Quinn Hughes to be a high end offensive D in the NHL would we not have to see some unreal points / game from him this year at Michigan like 1.2 p/gm??

 

Thanks for any insight you have!

 

Edit: the only reason I randomly picked 1.2 p/gm is that both Butcher and Krug are close to .9 p/gm and everyone on here is talking like Hughes will be head and shoulders better than those two players. And quite frankly we all hope he would be.

You need to factor in things like Butcher's 37 points in 43 games was achieved in his Senior year. Butcher had 16 points in 38 games in his Freshman year vs Hughes with his 29 points in 37 games. Even in Butcher's 2nd year he only had 18 points in 38 games. I think it is very safe to say that Hughes is far ahead of Butcher at the same stage of their NCAA careers.

Again, the 26 points McAvoy got was in his Sophomore season so I would think we want to see Hughes easily beat those numbers to show truly elite offensive skills in his Sophomore season.

Tory Krug's 34 points in 38 games was achieved during his Junior season.As a Sophomore, Krug put up 28 points in 38 games so again I would like to see Hughes easily beat these numbers and would think anything above 1.0 PPG would be indicative of a much higher offensive potential.

 

At the moment, Quinn appears to be ahead of all three in his progression but he still needs to demonstrate continued progress to have the same NHL success they have achieved. I really have no doubt that he will far exceed their offensive output at the NCAA level and hopefully at the NHL level as well. 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Agree with others who’ve suggested we want to see Hughes at around a point per game as a baseline, but that his raw points totals also aren’t the end all and be all of determining whether or not he’s improving and having a successful season, developmentally-speaking.

 

I also think Michigan, teamwise, haven’t been firing on all cylinders yet. Certainly in the games I’ve seen, and especially when it comes to some of the shifts with Hughes on the ice, they’ve failed to convert on some glorious chances. In terms of primary shot contributions (shots + shot assists), I think Quinn has had some monstrous games, where he could have easily finished with 5 points, and instead only scored maybe a single point, mostly due to the failure of teammates to convert on what he’s created. 

 

I think the early results for Makar (8 points in 4 GP) might also cause people to undervalue Hughes’s 3 points in 3 GP. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with a point per game for a D+1 defenseman in the NCAA. That’s a solid rate. But it’s inevitable that Hughes and Makar are going to get measured against each other this year, and I think from the outside, many people are wondering why Q isn’t scoring 2 points per game like Cale is currently.

 

I think the best measure right now is just to try to watch some games and see how much Quinn is on the puck and how much he’s controlling the game. And also watching him off the puck and defensively and seeing what kind of gains he’s made, compared to last year. Hughes is being developed to not only be an elite offensive defenseman, but also an all-situations D, who can hopefully play as a true #1 in the NHL. The points will come but it’s probably more informative to watch how well he’s able to control the game, through 3 zones, than just stat watch and grade him based purely on numbers.

 

That’s not to say the offense isn’t important. It is. And his ability to drive scoring will be his bread and butter game. But his ability to play a complete game will largely determine how high he actually plays in the D order as a professional, and whether or not he becomes a legit 1D versus more of a specialist.

 

I’ve seen improvements already in this young season. And I’ve seen a little bit of frustration and Hughes trying to do too much at times, forcing the play when things aren’t working for his team. I think overall, his defensive game looks stronger and cleaner this season. And offensively, I think he’s played much better than his results suggest. Seems like it’s just a matter of time before he breaks out with a 3,4, or even a 5 point game.

[Kanukfanatic]

46 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

You need to factor in things like Butcher's 37 points in 43 games was achieved in his Senior year. Butcher had 16 points in 38 games in his Freshman year vs Hughes with his 29 points in 37 games. Even in Butcher's 2nd year he only had 18 points in 38 games. I think it is very safe to say that Hughes is far ahead of Butcher at the same stage of their NCAA careers.

Again, the 26 points McAvoy got was in his Sophomore season so I would think we want to see Hughes easily beat those numbers to show truly elite offensive skills in his Sophomore season.

Tory Krug's 34 points in 38 games was achieved during his Junior season.As a Sophomore, Krug put up 28 points in 38 games so again I would like to see Hughes easily beat these numbers and would think anything above 1.0 PPG would be indicative of a much higher offensive potential.

 

At the moment, Quinn appears to be ahead of all three in his progression but he still needs to demonstrate continued progress to have the same NHL success they have achieved. I really have no doubt that he will far exceed their offensive output at the NCAA level and hopefully at the NHL level as well. 

Awesome information. Thanks Rick Blight!

[Kanukfanatic]

48 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Agree with others who’ve suggested we want to see Hughes at around a point per game as a baseline, but that his raw points totals also aren’t the end all and be all of determining whether or not he’s improving and having a successful season, developmentally-speaking.

 

I also think Michigan, teamwise, haven’t been firing on all cylinders yet. Certainly in the games I’ve seen, and especially when it comes to some of the shifts with Hughes on the ice, they’ve failed to convert on some glorious chances. In terms of primary shot contributions (shots + shot assists), I think Quinn has had some monstrous games, where he could have easily finished with 5 points, and instead only scored maybe a single point, mostly due to the failure of teammates to convert on what he’s created. 

 

I think the early results for Makar (8 points in 4 GP) might also cause people to undervalue Hughes’s 3 points in 3 GP. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with a point per game for a D+1 defenseman in the NCAA. That’s a solid rate. But it’s inevitable that Hughes and Makar are going to get measured against each other this year, and I think from the outside, many people are wondering why Q isn’t scoring 2 points per game like Cale is currently.

 

I think the best measure right now is just to try to watch some games and see how much Quinn is on the puck and how much he’s controlling the game. And also watching him off the puck and defensively and seeing what kind of gains he’s made, compared to last year. Hughes is being developed to not only be an elite offensive defenseman, but also an all-situations D, who can hopefully play as a true #1 in the NHL. The points will come but it’s probably more informative to watch how well he’s able to control the game, through 3 zones, than just stat watch and grade him based purely on numbers.

 

That’s not to say the offense isn’t important. It is. And his ability to drive scoring will be his bread and butter game. But his ability to play a complete game will largely determine how high he actually plays in the D order as a professional, and whether or not he becomes a legit 1D versus more of a specialist.

 

I’ve seen improvements already in this young season. And I’ve seen a little bit of frustration and Hughes trying to do too much at times, forcing the play when things aren’t working for his team. I think overall, his defensive game looks stronger and cleaner this season. And offensively, I think he’s played much better than his results suggest. Seems like it’s just a matter of time before he breaks out with a 3,4, or even a 5 point game.

Thanks Sid. As always your input is appreciated.

[Isam]

4 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Sid, and others, you all know more about prospect development than I so I was hoping you could answer this question for me. I went back a few pages to make sure you didn't already address this but I didn't see the same question or your answers.

 

For a defenseman in his D+1 year going into the NCAA in his 2nd year, what level of point production would you need to see out of Hughes for you to believe he would be a high end offensive D in the NHL (possibly - I know nothing is a given)?

 

His 1st NCAA year with Michigan got him 29 points (5g, 24a) in 37 games played or .78 p/gm.

 

I see that Will Butcher had 37 points in 43 games in his last year of NCAA (.86 p/gm).

Charlie McAvoy had 26 points in 38 games played in his last NCAA year (.68 p/gm).

Torey Krug had 34 points in 38 games played (.89 p/gm).

 

For Quinn Hughes to be a high end offensive D in the NHL would we not have to see some unreal points / game from him this year at Michigan like 1.2 p/gm??

 

Thanks for any insight you have!

 

Edit: the only reason I randomly picked 1.2 p/gm is that both Butcher and Krug are close to .9 p/gm and everyone on here is talking like Hughes will be head and shoulders better than those two players. And quite frankly we all hope he would be.

Ppg would be phenomenal and is doable especially in the big ten. Werenski's second year at 36 points in 36 games would be the benchmark that i would set for hughes

[GoldenAlien]

Another thing to keep in mind is Makar is a whole year older than Hughes -- he was born in October 1998 and Hughes was born in October 1999.  At this stage in their careers, an entire year to train, get stronger, play more etc., is a lot.  Imagine if someone played their D+1 in the Dub, then made the NHL at 19 years old, vs someone who played their D+1 and D+2 in the Dub, then made the NHL at 20.  Even though both are NHL rookies, one would expect the older one to have an advantage.

[MattJVD]

How was Quinn able to be in university in his draft year? Did he skip a grade? Finish High School early?

[Sean Monahan]

7 minutes ago, MattJVD said:

How was Quinn able to be in university in his draft year? Did he skip a grade? Finish High School early?

He was a late '99 rather than a 2000 birth year (like most of his draft class) so he'd already graduated high school. Eichel and Demko were in the same situation.

 

Werenski is the only one I can think of from recent years that played college in their draft year despite being in their "true" draft year.

[MattJVD]

20 minutes ago, Sean Monahan said:

He was a late '99 rather than a 2000 birth year (like most of his draft class) so he'd already graduated high school. Eichel and Demko were in the same situation.

 

Werenski is the only one I can think of from recent years that played college in their draft year despite being in their "true" draft year.

Right, I keep forgetting that the school enrollment age cut-off is not the same as the draft age cut-off. Thanks Sean

[Noble 6]

9 hours ago, Sean Monahan said:

He was a late '99 rather than a 2000 birth year (like most of his draft class) so he'd already graduated high school. Eichel and Demko were in the same situation.

 

Werenski is the only one I can think of from recent years that played college in their draft year despite being in their "true" draft year.

 

I thought Eichel fast tracked his courses to graduate early as well?

[GoldenAlien]

3 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

I thought Eichel fast tracked his courses to graduate early as well?

Both Eichel and Demko accelerated to go to college early -- Demko said he had to finish high school over the summer online.  American school year cutoff is also September, so these guys with late birthdays don't graduate early.  If you were born in October 1999, you'd be in the same class as people born in August 2000.

 

I think Quinn didn't have to accelerate though... with all those years he spent in Toronto, he probably enrolled according to his birth year, and therefore was a year ahead of his American counterparts.

[Sean Monahan]

What about Brady Tkachuk?

[GoldenAlien]

2 hours ago, Sean Monahan said:

What about Brady Tkachuk?

Also accelerated.  Late birthdays who are high end talents tend to fast track high school.  The USHL and other junior leagues do go by birth years, so an October 2002 birthday would be starting their first USHL season in 2018, not 2019.  Guys like Eichel have already played two years in the USHL/ USDP by their draft year, if they didn't accelerate, their draft year would be a third year in a junior A league, which is not ideal.

 

Every once in a while, you do have younger guys who go to college early -- Habs' Ryan Poehling was a 1999 birthday but started at St. Cloud in 2016.  He had twin brothers already playing there though, IIRC a part of his motivation is to play with them.

[Sean Monahan]

13 minutes ago, GoldenAlien said:

Also accelerated.  Late birthdays who are high end talents tend to fast track high school.  The USHL and other junior leagues do go by birth years, so an October 2002 birthday would be starting their first USHL season in 2018, not 2019.  Guys like Eichel have already played two years in the USHL/ USDP by their draft year, if they didn't accelerate, their draft year would be a third year in a junior A league, which is not ideal.

 

Every once in a while, you do have younger guys who go to college early -- Habs' Ryan Poehling was a 1999 birthday but started at St. Cloud in 2016.  He had twin brothers already playing there though, IIRC a part of his motivation is to play with them.

Good call on Poehling. I remember seeing that a little while back but totally forgot about him. 

 

Come to think of it, back when we drafted him I remember reading about Demko fast-tracking his education to get to BC sooner. 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Hughes, Lockwood, and the Wolverines just about to get underway for game one of the two game weekender against St Lawrence.

 

The radio and live stats links should work, and you can follow on Michigan twitter. The stream is on BTN, so subscription (boo), and I can’t find a free alternative.

 

Hughes and Lockwood remain first pairing and first line, respectively, per tonight’s lineup.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Into the final minutes and Michigan leads 3-0. No points for Q, but he’s had 7 shot attempts, 3 SOG, and is +1 (the other two goals were scored on the PP).

 

Points are nice, but the way Michigan has defended in previous games, and the way they’ve struggled to get saves, I’d imagine Quinn will be happy with individual zeroes (G’s and A’s) if they come with a team zero (GA).

 

* * *

 

And they’ve done it. 3-0 shutout win. Wolverines dominant offensively, with 80 shot attempts and 40 SOG, but that goose egg on the goals against is a nice improvement for Q and his mates.

 

EDIT: I think they held St. Lawrence to only 16 shots on goal for the game.

Edited October 27, 2018 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME