Linus Karlsson | C

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, vancan2233 said:

Do not have to look to the draft, just look at about ever NHL teams top lines, many have late round draft picks as first line players. 

Just look at Tampa.  KOoch in round two and Point in three.  Those are top five pick value.  Basically TBay got Stamkos, Hedman, KOoch, and Point as very high picks.  Just the last two came outside of round one. 

Do we have any guys like that?  Those ar3 superstar players.  

[vancan2233]

12 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Just look at Tampa.  KOoch in round two and Point in three.  Those are top five pick value.  Basically TBay got Stamkos, Hedman, KOoch, and Point as very high picks.  Just the last two came outside of round one. 

Do we have any guys like that?  Those ar3 superstar players.  

This is where determining a players limit base on draft position after they are drafted is so off. Development and determination of the player greatly changes a player's curve. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by vancan2233

[Alflives]

12 minutes ago, vancan2233 said:

This is where determining a players limit base on draft position after they are drafted is so off. Development and determination of the player greatly changes a player's curve. 

Exactly.  Got to draft guys with the best skill, character, and determination to compete.  I like our pick of Klim.  Yes, it’s a long shot, but if he de elopes to his ceiling we have a star player.  I’m not sure what ceiling Karlsson has.  Fingers crossed. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Alflives

[VegasCanuck]

29 minutes ago, vancan2233 said:

This is where determining a players limit base on draft position after they are drafted is so off. Development and determination of the player greatly changes a player's curve. 

I don't know where you think that I, or any one of us would have the ability to limit a player. They will be whatever they are going to be, but the odds are that there are very few players selected past the first round who develop into first line talent.

 

Let's take a snapshot of 3 drafts, 2015 - 2017. Past the first round and across 558 picks, there are roughly 4 guys who have achieved anything close to being considered either a 1st line talent, or a 1st pairing D. So, 1 in 139.5 odds of finding someone in the draft who can raise their game to that level, past the first round.

 

I'm not saying that he won't, but the odds are he's a middle 6 guy and it's up to him to show that he's more than that when he actually plays a game.

[Putgolzin]

12 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

I don't know where you think that I, or any one of us would have the ability to limit a player. They will be whatever they are going to be, but the odds are that there are very few players selected past the first round who develop into first line talent.

 

Let's take a snapshot of 3 drafts, 2015 - 2017. Past the first round and across 558 picks, there are roughly 4 guys who have achieved anything close to being considered either a 1st line talent, or a 1st pairing D. So, 1 in 139.5 odds of finding someone in the draft who can raise their game to that level, past the first round.

 

I'm not saying that he won't, but the odds are he's a middle 6 guy and it's up to him to show that he's more than that when he actually plays a game.

I assume you capture more players using all the rounds, but I'm guessing the odds actually go up if you only include Second and Third Round picks for the basis of this calculation.

For example, of the 4 guys you identified are 2 or 3 of them from round 2 and 3? And that would only represent about 100 players total.

[higgyfan]

15 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

I don't know where you think that I, or any one of us would have the ability to limit a player. They will be whatever they are going to be, but the odds are that there are very few players selected past the first round who develop into first line talent.

 

Let's take a snapshot of 3 drafts, 2015 - 2017. Past the first round and across 558 picks, there are roughly 4 guys who have achieved anything close to being considered either a 1st line talent, or a 1st pairing D. So, 1 in 139.5 odds of finding someone in the draft who can raise their game to that level, past the first round.

 

I'm not saying that he won't, but the odds are he's a middle 6 guy and it's up to him to show that he's more than that when he actually plays a game.

If he ends up a solid middle 6 NHL player, that would be a big W for the Nucks.  Luckily Karlsson has other skills

beside scoring goals.  From what I've been reading, he also has a 2-way game, high hockey sense, size (6'1/186lbs),

Can play RW or C-r, has improved his skating substantially, good stick handling and is a character player.

 

In a year or two, he might end up being at least the much coveted 3C-r we've all been screaming for.  At best, he

might fill a top 6 RW role.  It's all good.

[VegasCanuck]

3 hours ago, Putgolzin said:

I assume you capture more players using all the rounds, but I'm guessing the odds actually go up if you only include Second and Third Round picks for the basis of this calculation.

For example, of the 4 guys you identified are 2 or 3 of them from round 2 and 3? And that would only represent about 100 players total.

It was sporadic across the rounds. Your chances of getting someone who will have a meaningful career, meaning plays at least 100 games in the NHL, are about 35% in the second round and drop off from there.

 

Not sure why some fans get bent out of shape with facts and numbers. Not every draft pick for any team are going to pan out. Some are going to take the opportunity and run with it, (Ryan Miller, 5th round pick), and some are going to crash, sometimes due to injuries hampering their development, some due to lack of drive. Having talent doesn't guarantee success. Some kids will wash out even though they have lots of talent. Look at Juolevi, had solid talent, but couldn't overcome constant setbacks with injuries.

 

Guys who can stay healthy and have enough drive will rise to the top, guys who run into injury problems or lack drive, will sink.

 

As fans, we have no control over who makes it or who doesn't, but my original response was, based on math, the chances of finding someone past the first round, who can elevate their game to where they are a true first line or first pairing player are more than 100 to 1. Doesn't mean that someone (maybe Karlsson), doesn't have a really solid, long career as a middle 6 guy.

 

Time will tell what his true ceiling is, but only he can determine that! We just get to sit back and watch and hope that he'll be one of those 1 in 100 who can elevate and become the Troy Brouwer (7th round 2004), T.J. Brodie (4th round 2008), Andrew Mangiapane (6th round 2016)

 

1st line talents don't drop out past the 1st round very often.

 

Don't take my word for it, go look for yourselves: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/

 

 

[VegasCanuck]

15 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

If he ends up a solid middle 6 NHL player, that would be a big W for the Nucks.  Luckily Karlsson has other skills

beside scoring goals.  From what I've been reading, he also has a 2-way game, high hockey sense, size (6'1/186lbs),

Can play RW or C-r, has improved his skating substantially, good stick handling and is a character player.

 

In a year or two, he might end up being at least the much coveted 3C-r we've all been screaming for.  At best, he

might fill a top 6 RW role.  It's all good.

That's my point exactly and my expectation. People getting bent out of shape because I'm saying that based on his career so far, he projects to be somewhere between 3rd line and middle 6 (which would be awesome).

 

If he can elevate his game and find that next level, even better! But that's up to him and his drive in development.

[higgyfan]

9 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

That's my point exactly and my expectation. People getting bent out of shape because I'm saying that based on his career so far, he projects to be somewhere between 3rd line and middle 6 (which would be awesome).

 

If he can elevate his game and find that next level, even better! But that's up to him and his drive in development.

Yeah, I guess peeps are getting carried away with the fact that he surpassed Pete's scoring level as a rookie.  What

needs to be stressed is that he did it as a 21yr old rookie, while Pete was 18yrs in his rookie year.  Not to diminish Linus'

Strong performance, but he definitely shouldn't be compared to Pettersson.

 

Adding a right shot C to our team is a good thing and if he excels; it's a fantastic thing.

[Fred65]

14 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

Adding a right shot C to our team is a good thing 

especially for the LW'ers  

Edited June 15, 2022 by Fred65

[VegasCanuck]

1 hour ago, higgyfan said:

Yeah, I guess peeps are getting carried away with the fact that he surpassed Pete's scoring level as a rookie.  What

needs to be stressed is that he did it as a 21yr old rookie, while Pete was 18yrs in his rookie year.  Not to diminish Linus'

Strong performance, but he definitely shouldn't be compared to Pettersson.

 

Adding a right shot C to our team is a good thing and if he excels; it's a fantastic thing.

Did that too lol

 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[Putgolzin]

On 6/15/2022 at 1:53 PM, VegasCanuck said:

It was sporadic across the rounds. Your chances of getting someone who will have a meaningful career, meaning plays at least 100 games in the NHL, are about 35% in the second round and drop off from there.

 

Not sure why some fans get bent out of shape with facts and numbers. Not every draft pick for any team are going to pan out. Some are going to take the opportunity and run with it, (Ryan Miller, 5th round pick), and some are going to crash, sometimes due to injuries hampering their development, some due to lack of drive. Having talent doesn't guarantee success. Some kids will wash out even though they have lots of talent. Look at Juolevi, had solid talent, but couldn't overcome constant setbacks with injuries.

 

Guys who can stay healthy and have enough drive will rise to the top, guys who run into injury problems or lack drive, will sink.

 

As fans, we have no control over who makes it or who doesn't, but my original response was, based on math, the chances of finding someone past the first round, who can elevate their game to where they are a true first line or first pairing player are more than 100 to 1. Doesn't mean that someone (maybe Karlsson), doesn't have a really solid, long career as a middle 6 guy.

 

Time will tell what his true ceiling is, but only he can determine that! We just get to sit back and watch and hope that he'll be one of those 1 in 100 who can elevate and become the Troy Brouwer (7th round 2004), T.J. Brodie (4th round 2008), Andrew Mangiapane (6th round 2016)

 

1st line talents don't drop out past the 1st round very often.

 

Don't take my word for it, go look for yourselves: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/

 

 

Agreed on all of that.

I was actually surprised it was as high  as you said, especially because if you tightened the math up to the discussion at hand (ie: not first rounders, but also not super late picks) I would assume it would be a much higher percentage.

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[Googlie]

Nice to see LK stand out in the scrimmages.  Is an older rookie (turns 23 this year) so was a little bit of a "man among boys" situation ... plus, he'd been playing against men these last 2 seasons so not surprising he shone. (Same with Nielsen, just a couple of months younger and played last season in Abbotsford)

[Makaramel MacKhiato]

Kid could be the 3rd line C we were hoping for. I hope he makes the team, but a definite call up this year!

[Stierlitz]

Observation from Chris Faber after the development camp:

Quote

After not impressing us through the first couple of days at camp, Linus Karlsson looked excellent on days three and four. He was at his best in the game-like situations and has some nice hands to deke around defenders. His skating looked below average at this camp and that should be a worry for those who think he could step right into the NHL this season.

Karlsson will need to prove that his pace isn’t behind in the AHL this fall and if he is able to find success with Abbotsford, we could begin to talk about him being a call-up option later in the season. He should be able to be an instant impact on an AHL power play and mentioned that he wants to be a penalty killer here as well.

 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

On 7/16/2022 at 1:30 AM, Top Sven Baercheese said:

Kid could be the 3rd line C we were hoping for. I hope he makes the team, but a definite call up this year!

Maybe one day, but I wouldn’t expect to see him playing centre in the NHL this year, at least not to start (not saying you’re expecting that to happen, but some people seem to be).

 

I don’t think Karlsson has even played his “natural position” at centre since he was in the junior leagues in Sweden and he really doesn’t have any experience or proven ability at centre playing in men’s pro. In Allsvenskan, he played either RW or LW, and in the SHL, he was a RW.
 

He does take the occasional faceoff (and to his credit, he wins more draws than he loses), but that’s still him stepping to the dot as a winger and taking a draw in place of his centre.

 

Maybe the Canucks will look to fast track him in Abbotsford, similar to what they did with Jasek, and just stick him in the middle with a couple good wingers, hope it clicks, and continue to work with him and coach him up at the position.
 

And maybe by the time he’s called up, he’s proven himself an effective AHL centre, and he plays 3C for his NHL debut.

 

But I kinda shake my head at some of the people on social media and podcasts in recent weeks (like Andrew Wadden on the most recent Rinkwide Podcast) who’ve been suggesting Karlsson could replace Dickinson out of camp and start 2022-23 for the Canucks as an NHL 3C. I really can’t see how anyone who’s watched any of Karlsson’s games in Sweden would think he’s coming over here as an NHL ready centreman expected to step immediately into a 3C role.

Edited July 17, 2022 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[Boudrias]

5 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Maybe one day, but I wouldn’t expect to see him playing centre in the NHL this year, at least not to start (not saying you’re expecting that to happen, but some people seem to be).

 

I don’t think Karlsson has even played his “natural position” at centre since he was in the junior leagues in Sweden and he really doesn’t have any experience or proven ability at centre playing in men’s pro. In Allsvenskan, he played either RW or LW, and in the SHL, he was a RW.
 

He does take the occasional faceoff (and to his credit, he wins more draws than he loses), but that’s still him stepping to the dot as a winger and taking a draw in place of his centre.

 

Maybe the Canucks will look to fast track him in Abbotsford, similar to what they did with Jasek, and just stick him in the middle with a couple good wingers, hope it clicks, and continue to work with him and coach him up at the position.
 

And maybe by the time he’s called up, he’s proven himself an effective AHL centre, and he plays 3C for his NHL debut.

 

But I kinda shake my head at some of the people on social media and podcasts in recent weeks (like Andrew Wadden on the most recent Rinkwide Podcast) who’ve been suggesting Karlsson could replace Dickinson out of camp and start 2022-23 for the Canucks as an NHL 3C. I really can’t see how anyone who’s watched any of Karlsson’s games in Sweden would think he’s coming over here as an NHL ready centreman expected to step immediately into a 3C role.

Isn't this so typical in Canuckland. I am certainly hoping this 'immediate demand' for prospect success is over in Vancouver. My hope is that all players coming into the org, without NHL experience, spend 25-40 games in Abby before they see a NHL game. Rushing players into the NHL can hurt the player and the Canucks long term. 

[Googlie]

Yeah - those AHL games sure helped Petey get off to a 10 goals in 10 games start to his NHL career. 

 

Little bit tongue in cheek ... I agree in principle, but occasiomally talent will trump the norm.  Not saying that LK has EPs talent, but he did break EPs SHL rookie record (albeit older).  2 things that will hold LK back are his lack of foot speed and his unfamiliarity with NHL-sized rinks,  both of which will be remedied by games in Abbotsford.  For sure he'll see a few games this season with the big club, but likely not as a center