[Proposal] Matt Duchene + Anton Stralman would give us a very deep line-up

[Hindustan Smyl]

[proposal] Matt Duchene + Anton Stralman would give us a very deep line-up

 

I think most of us have speculated as to what it would be like to have “such and such” player on our team.  I know I certainly have, lol.

 

We’ve talked about the usual suspects to death:  Panarin, Karlsson, Dzingel, Subban, Kapanen, Myers, and pretty much all of the names on the rumor mill.   

 

While we’ve also talked about Matt Duchene on here, it was mainly us speculating as to what this team would look like with Matt Duchene playing on the left side....with Pettersson and Boeser.

 

Today, I’m going to talk about this from a different angle.

 

What if.........we brought in Matt Duchene as a Center?

 

Pettersson

Duchene

Horvat

 

As a triple punch combo down the middle.

 

Here is why I would see the benefit in doing such a thing:

 

1) In today’s NHL, elite teams pretty much need three scoring lines as opposed to the older traditional two scoring lines + two shut down lines.   

 

2). Duchene is an elite UFA, but likely won’t make quite the same amount of $$$$ as Panarin or Karlsson.......which ultimately means that we’d still have a legit shot of getting guys like Pettersson and Hughes to take discounts when it comes to re-upping them.

 

3) Anton Stralman:  In terms of.....well.....term, Stralman won’t be signed for so many years in the manner that a Tyler Myers would,  You could Sign Stralman for 2-3 years, and then part ways with him just as guys like Woo would be ready to make a legit impact at the NHL level.

 

By signing both Duchene and Stralman, the Canucks would be employing the model that makes current elite teams in the NHL successful:  

 

Cost controlled elite talent + depth

 

Duchene could realistically be had for 9.5 million or less, while Stralman’s cap hit and term would be palpable.

 

Goldobin-Duchene-Boeser

Pearson-Pettersson-Gaudette

Baertschi-Horvat-Virtanen

Roussel-Beagle-Leivo

 

MacEwan

 

Edler-Stecher

Hughes-Tanev

Hutton-Stralman

 

Schenn

 

Markstrom

Demko

 

So what you would have with the above, is a VERY deep line-up.

 

You could move Sutter, Schaller, and Eriksson to clear cap space is you wanted to go this route, and still have excellent depth.  Gaudette could be moved back to Center just in case of injuries.

 

In terms of our defense, we would have 6 defensemen that would NOT look out of place in a Top 4 role. .   

 

The defense would also have a good succession plan in place.  By the time guys like Edler, Stralman, and Tanev would be ready to come off the books, guys like Woo, Juolevi, and a returning Tryamkin should be ready to fill their spots.   It would not be a Myers or Gardiner situation where their lengthy contracts could potentially prevent younger guys from getting into the line-up.

[Hindustan Smyl]

“The Canucks are already fairly decent at Center.  With so many other weaknesses, why bring in another Center?”

 

I think this may have been the mindset for many posters on here, which is why the idea of bringing in Duchene (as a Center) never really entertained a 2nd thought.  

 

However - The counter-argument to the above can be as follows:  Why not turn a decent strength into a MASSIVE strength?

 

On top of that, not only can current centers be moved to the wings to play there and have more offensive opportunities (Gaudette), but the advantage of having a good Center is that they can help mediocre/diamond-in-the-rough wingers take the next level.  

 

Think a guy like Virtanen would benefit more from playing with a guy like Horvat (all the time) instead of Sutter or Beagle?

 

 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by Hindustan Smyl

[WHL rocks]

Duchene just saw Skinner got 9 mill 8 years 

 

He's looking for at least that. 

 

 

[Coconuts]

Not even remotely interested in Duchene tbh. 

[Twilight Sparkle]

1 hour ago, WHL rocks said:

Duchene just saw Skinner got 9 mill 8 years 

 

He's looking for at least that. 

 

 

he also did stuff in the playoffs. its "justified"

[Hindustan Smyl]

51 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

Duchene just saw Skinner got 9 mill 8 years 

 

He's looking for at least that. 

 

 

In today’s NHL, I don’t think a 9 million dollar cap hit is too terrible (although in Skinner’s case, I do believe that’s an overpayment).  

 

At a certain cap hit percentage however (player cap hit / overall team cap), I think that contract starts to become less of a “value” asset since said contract prevents a team from investing into other players and building more depth.

 

What that actual percentage is?  I’m not sure. I like to use proven models of success as reference points.

 

For example - Alex Ovechkin won a cup last year with a 9.5ish (slightly above) million dollar cap hit.  The overall team cap was 73 million I believe (I might be wrong on this.....would love to look this up but my Chinese browser won’t let me).   

 

Therefore, the absolute HIGHEST that I would be willing to play a player would be as follows:

 

[projected 20192020 season Team cap * Alex Ovechkin’s cap hit] / [20172018 season Team cap]

 

That is the ABSOLUTE highest that I would pay any player.....McDavid included (until it’s proven that a team carrying a player with a cap percentage higher than that can win a cup).

 

Unfortunately, I think both Artemi Panarin and especially Erik Karlsson, will command more than my above calculated figure.  

 

Even though Skinner just received a grossly overpaid contract (which will unfortunately, now serve as an inappropriate reference point for other UFA’s), I don’t think Matt Duchene’s asking price will exceed my above calculated figure.   I think he could be had for 9.5 million (Mark Stone deal).  

 

While it’s not the most cap friendly deal in the world, I think it’s definitely doable......and would still classify as a “value” contract given where the team cap limit is projected to be.

 

Still - when you look at the most successful teams in the league these past 10 years (Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh, Boston, and now possibly St.Louis), you’ll see that their overall allocated cap percentage to their elite players, was relatively low.   

 

Look at Vladimir Tarasenko’s current cap hit for instance.   You won’t find too many deals better than that in today’s NHL.  

[WHL rocks]

1 hour ago, Twilight Sparkle said:

he also did stuff in the playoffs. its "justified"

Sure. Just pointing out the cost. 

 

Id rather pay Panarin 11 mill 

[Twilight Sparkle]

Just now, WHL rocks said:

Sure. Just pointing out the cost. 

 

Id rather pay Panarin 11 mill 

oooo thats what i said to get tryamkin back in that other sucky thread! HIGH FIVE

[Hindustan Smyl]

1 hour ago, WHL rocks said:

Sure. Just pointing out the cost. 

 

Id rather pay Panarin 11 mill 

I'd rather not, until it becomes proven that teams can win with a player earning that much money.

 

As of this writing, the highest cap percentage player to win a cup was Alex Ovechkin last year (Ovechkin cap hit / 20172018 Team Salary Cap).   If you've noticed however, cup winning teams like Chicago, LA, Boston, and Pittsburgh had elite players that had much lower cap hits, relative to the overall percentage of their teams' cap.   

 

As it relates to the present?   Matt Duchene would likely receive a salary that would be less than that of Alex Ovechkin's cap percentage (i.e. OvechkinsCap / 20172018 Team Cap), while Karlsson and Panarin's cap percentage would likely greatly exceed that.......and as of this writing, it's not a proven model of success.

[Gaudette Celly]

3 hours ago, Coconuts said:

Not even remotely interested in Duchene tbh. 

Somebody will pay him, just surely hope it's not us.

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

I'd rather not, until it becomes proven that teams can win with a player earning that much money.

 

As of this writing, the highest cap percentage player to win a cup was Alex Ovechkin last year (Ovechkin cap hit / 20172018 Team Salary Cap).   If you've noticed however, cup winning teams like Chicago, LA, Boston, and Pittsburgh had elite players that had much lower cap hits, relative to the overall percentage of their teams' cap.   

 

As it relates to the present?   Matt Duchene would likely receive a salary that would be less than that of Alex Ovechkin's cap percentage (i.e. OvechkinsCap / 20172018 Team Cap), while Karlsson and Panarin's cap percentage would likely greatly exceed that.......and as of this writing, it's not a proven model of success.

Cap hit matters only relative to the skill and intangibles a specific player brings.  In a “what if” world, this years final could easily be St Louis versus TO if Kadri wasn’t suspended.  They were up 3-2 and no way they wouldn’t have closed that series with Kadris five or six points on the table too.  And with no TB left open season.  Would they best St Louis?  Maybe yes. Then this is a mute point given Tavares cap hit.   The RFA window is closing fast and soon the be in the past if it isn’t already (CHI, LA etc).    Someone has to win and soon every team in the league almost will have a cap heavy team.

 

Its all about depth, solid defense, goaltending and balanced scoring ... hard to get now ... in a few years it might be about something else as all of these thing will be next to impossible to get.

 

edit:  no matter how you spin in Duchene will never be Ovi, even with the same cap hit, same way a whole ton of players will never be Crosby with his cap hit.

Edited June 9, 2019 by IBatch

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, WHL rocks said:

Sure. Just pointing out the cost. 

 

Id rather pay Panarin 11 mill 

Me too.  

[Hindustan Smyl]

5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Cap hit matters only relative to the skill and intangibles a specific player brings.  In a “what if” world, this years final could easily be St Louis versus TO if Kadri wasn’t suspended.  They were up 3-2 and no way they wouldn’t have closed that series with Kadris five or six points on the table too.  And with no TB left open season.  Would they best St Louis?  Maybe yes. Then this is a mute point given Tavares cap hit.   The RFA window is closing fast and soon the be in the past if it isn’t already (CHI, LA etc).    Someone has to win and soon every team in the league almost will have a cap heavy team.

 

Its all about depth, solid defense, goaltending and balanced scoring ... hard to get now ... in a few years it might be about something else as all of these thing will be next to impossible to get.

 

edit:  no matter how you spin in Duchene will never be Ovi, even with the same cap hit, same way a whole ton of players will never be Crosby with his cap hit.

You might be correct that the successful “models” that we’ve seen these past 10 years (Chicago/LA/Pitts/) might go the way of the Dodo bird, but teams like Calgary, Carolina, and Colorado (teams that have a cap structure similar to that of those successful models) might prove to other organizations that those models are still the recipe to success.....and as a result, might make GM’s think twice about adapting to the “new” Toronto style model.

 

Until a team wins a cup with a 10 million dollar player on their team, I’ll never subscribe to the “top heavy” model.    As of this writing, I would never pay Panarin or Karlsson the type of money that they’d be asking.

[IBatch]

8 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

You might be correct that the successful “models” that we’ve seen these past 10 years (Chicago/LA/Pitts/) might go the way of the Dodo bird, but teams like Calgary, Carolina, and Colorado (teams that have a cap structure similar to that of those successful models) might prove to other organizations that those models are still the recipe to success.....and as a result, might make GM’s think twice about adapting to the “new” Toronto style model.

 

Until a team wins a cup with a 10 million dollar player on their team, I’ll never subscribe to the “top heavy” model.    As of this writing, I would never pay Panarin or Karlsson the type of money that they’d be asking.

COL has to sign Rantanen, and reports are that it will be a lot higher then McKinnons deal.  CAR has to sign AHO and he will cash in too.  But COL definitely has a foot up on the competition with one of their stars, who also just happens to be one of the best players in the world right now, sure he will get Hart votes again this year, locked up to what could become one of the last fair contracts we see for RFAs (Pastnrak as well) ..CAL is looking at a 7-8 million and term deal with MT if they want him long term given his 77 points mostly on the second line last year.  And with Neal their cap situation is about to change a little although good points above were made for sure...

 

A few teams will have their foots in both sides for a while (fair RFA contracts and inflated RFA contracts), including us with Horvats cap hit...but we will be more on the side of the new era which sucks big time....unless Benning can manage the same magic he did with Horvat, anything under 7 with 7 years would be awesome.  

 

Edit:  sure they got swept ... shocking...but TB has the best cap structure in the league given who’s on that team...they had one of the best seasons in the history of the league...bad luck with Kucherov and playing Bob in the first round...close games ...

Edited June 9, 2019 by IBatch

[coastal.view]

all i can say

is it is a good thing

that vancouver does not have

uber

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by coastal.view

[kloubek]

I understand what you are saying about having a strong center position.  As a whole, that would probably be the best 4 centers on one team.

 

But we are already trying (and so far struggling) to find Bo the linemates he needs as a 1b player. His talent would be even more wasted on the 3rd line, and spending what Duchene would want would hamstring us from getting the high end LW that Petey needs - let alone 2a wingers for Duchene, then we STILL have to find Bo at least one decent winger.

 

Plus we would then have an even bigger glut of 3rd/4th line guys to move.

 

Besides that, I dislike Duchene.

 

So... hard pass on several fronts.

[IBatch]

56 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

all i can say

is it is a good thing

that vancouver does not have

uber

 

Yep good thing we don’t have the same headaches with cap constraints and still have to sign Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson. Ha ha...or even PHI for that matter they also have three good players to deal with...

[nergish]

I hope Jimbo's got his hair freshly dyed, he's got a big month coming up here.

 

[IBatch]

26 minutes ago, kloubek said:

I understand what you are saying about having a strong center position.  As a whole, that would probably be the best 4 centers on one team.

 

But we are already trying (and so far struggling) to find Bo the linemates he needs as a 1b player. His talent would be even more wasted on the 3rd line, and spending what Duchene would want would hamstring us from getting the high end LW that Petey needs - let alone 2a wingers for Duchene, then we STILL have to find Bo at least one decent winger.

 

Plus we would then have an even bigger glut of 3rd/4th line guys to move.

 

Besides that, I dislike Duchene.

 

So... hard pass on several fronts.

Duchene would be EPs high end L-winger in this scenario.   I agree entirely that Horvats talents would be wasted on the third line, only TB and TO has that match center depth and the wingers to support them...well at least for now TO has the “ unfortunate “ scenario where one or maybe even two guys will have to get traded ... for more picks and prospects which will only help and prolong their window with a steady flow of young players on ELCs to help balance the books in the future.

 

 

Edit: if we had Duchene then when one center goes down you have a replacement already available, that had added value too...

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by IBatch

[higgyfan]

Definitely a good idea to get Stralman. 

 

Not so sure about Duchene; mostly the huge $$$ and he probably wants term/NTC/NMC (of course that can me said about a lot of the UFAs' which makes these proposals questionable).  The potential of having 3 scoring lines is great and if it doesn't work out; Duchene can play LW on Pete's line. 

 

My preference for Pete's left side is a scrappy playmaker who  can also score if need be.  (Zuccarello (undersized, but man is he tough and shifty), Lee or even Maroon).  I don't really think Pete's line is a priority, so I wouldn't mind if they acquired Maroon for a shorter term and less $. The team just might pick up a player in the draft that could fit the bill, but it will take  some time for this kid to develop to that level. 

 

Bo is too valuable as a top 6 C.  My preference is to continue developing Gaudette for the time being and if it doesn't look like he can handle it; move him to the W and find another defensive C.  Bo needs support on his right side; someone that is good around the net.  Perhaps Virtanen can fill this role, but he needs to improve his passing, driving to the net and scoring accuracy.  This years draft (as well as next year) don't show a lot of potential for a RW, except for maybe Connor.  They may have to find this player in a trade at some point.

 

If the Canucks pick up Boldy it could change either 1st or 2nd line as he plays RW or LW and looks a lot closer to NHL ready than many of the other picks.  Certainly gives the coach a lot of options in the top 6.