[Proposal] Matt Duchene + Anton Stralman would give us a very deep line-up

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, higgyfan said:

Definitely a good idea to get Stralman. 

 

Not so sure about Duchene; mostly the huge $$$ and he probably wants term/NTC/NMC (of course that can me said about a lot of the UFAs' which makes these proposals questionable).  The potential of having 3 scoring lines is great and if it doesn't work out; Duchene can play LW on Pete's line. 

 

My preference for Pete's left side is a scrappy playmaker who  can also score if need be.  (Zuccarello (undersized, but man is he tough and shifty), Lee or even Maroon).  I don't really think Pete's line is a priority, so I wouldn't mind if they acquired Maroon for a shorter term and less $. The team just might pick up a player in the draft that could fit the bill, but it will take  some time for this kid to develop to that level. 

 

Bo is too valuable as a top 6 C.  My preference is to continue developing Gaudette for the time being and if it doesn't look like he can handle it; move him to the W and find another defensive C.  Bo needs support on his right side; someone that is good around the net.  Perhaps Virtanen can fill this role, but he needs to improve his passing, driving to the net and scoring accuracy.  This years draft (as well as next year) don't show a lot of potential for a RW, except for maybe Connor.  They may have to find this player in a trade at some point.

 

If the Canucks pick up Boldy it could change either 1st or 2nd line as he plays RW or LW and looks a lot closer to NHL ready than many of the other picks.  Certainly gives the coach a lot of options in the top 6.

 

 

Duchene has compliance buy-out written all over his next contract.  Stay clear of that guy. 

[scheif16]

10 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

[proposal] Matt Duchene + Anton Stralman would give us a very deep line-up

 

I think most of us have speculated as to what it would be like to have “such and such” player on our team.  I know I certainly have, lol.

 

We’ve talked about the usual suspects to death:  Panarin, Karlsson, Dzingel, Subban, Kapanen, Myers, and pretty much all of the names on the rumor mill.   

 

While we’ve also talked about Matt Duchene on here, it was mainly us speculating as to what this team would look like with Matt Duchene playing on the left side....with Pettersson and Boeser.

 

Today, I’m going to talk about this from a different angle.

 

What if.........we brought in Matt Duchene as a Center?

 

Pettersson

Duchene

Horvat

 

As a triple punch combo down the middle.

 

Here is why I would see the benefit in doing such a thing:

 

1) In today’s NHL, elite teams pretty much need three scoring lines as opposed to the older traditional two scoring lines + two shut down lines.   

 

2). Duchene is an elite UFA, but likely won’t make quite the same amount of $$$$ as Panarin or Karlsson.......which ultimately means that we’d still have a legit shot of getting guys like Pettersson and Hughes to take discounts when it comes to re-upping them.

 

3) Anton Stralman:  In terms of.....well.....term, Stralman won’t be signed for so many years in the manner that a Tyler Myers would,  You could Sign Stralman for 2-3 years, and then part ways with him just as guys like Woo would be ready to make a legit impact at the NHL level.

 

By signing both Duchene and Stralman, the Canucks would be employing the model that makes current elite teams in the NHL successful:  

 

Cost controlled elite talent + depth

 

Duchene could realistically be had for 9.5 million or less, while Stralman’s cap hit and term would be palpable.

 

Goldobin-Duchene-Boeser

Pearson-Pettersson-Gaudette

Baertschi-Horvat-Virtanen

Roussel-Beagle-Leivo

 

MacEwan

 

Edler-Stecher

Hughes-Tanev

Hutton-Stralman

 

Schenn

 

Markstrom

Demko

 

So what you would have with the above, is a VERY deep line-up.

 

You could move Sutter, Schaller, and Eriksson to clear cap space is you wanted to go this route, and still have excellent depth.  Gaudette could be moved back to Center just in case of injuries.

 

In terms of our defense, we would have 6 defensemen that would NOT look out of place in a Top 4 role. .   

 

The defense would also have a good succession plan in place.  By the time guys like Edler, Stralman, and Tanev would be ready to come off the books, guys like Woo, Juolevi, and a returning Tryamkin should be ready to fill their spots.   It would not be a Myers or Gardiner situation where their lengthy contracts could potentially prevent younger guys from getting into the line-up.

Horvat is to good for 3rd line minutes. Avoid overpaying free agents this offseason. Build through the draft. Develop our young guys and be patient. Rather have a window of winning for 5-7 years in a few years than 2-3 years because of cap issues.

Edited June 9, 2019 by scheif16

[Where'd Luongo?]

8 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

In today’s NHL, I don’t think a 9 million dollar cap hit is too terrible (although in Skinner’s case, I do believe that’s an overpayment).  

 

At a certain cap hit percentage however (player cap hit / overall team cap), I think that contract starts to become less of a “value” asset since said contract prevents a team from investing into other players and building more depth.

 

What that actual percentage is?  I’m not sure. I like to use proven models of success as reference points.

 

For example - Alex Ovechkin won a cup last year with a 9.5ish (slightly above) million dollar cap hit.  The overall team cap was 73 million I believe (I might be wrong on this.....would love to look this up but my Chinese browser won’t let me).   

 

Therefore, the absolute HIGHEST that I would be willing to play a player would be as follows:

 

[projected 20192020 season Team cap * Alex Ovechkin’s cap hit] / [20172018 season Team cap]

 

That is the ABSOLUTE highest that I would pay any player.....McDavid included (until it’s proven that a team carrying a player with a cap percentage higher than that can win a cup).

 

Unfortunately, I think both Artemi Panarin and especially Erik Karlsson, will command more than my above calculated figure.  

 

Even though Skinner just received a grossly overpaid contract (which will unfortunately, now serve as an inappropriate reference point for other UFA’s), I don’t think Matt Duchene’s asking price will exceed my above calculated figure.   I think he could be had for 9.5 million (Mark Stone deal).  

 

While it’s not the most cap friendly deal in the world, I think it’s definitely doable......and would still classify as a “value” contract given where the team cap limit is projected to be.

 

Still - when you look at the most successful teams in the league these past 10 years (Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh, Boston, and now possibly St.Louis), you’ll see that their overall allocated cap percentage to their elite players, was relatively low.   

 

Look at Vladimir Tarasenko’s current cap hit for instance.   You won’t find too many deals better than that in today’s NHL.  

Ovechkin signed that deal over a decade ago. That's just silly.

[Mathew Barzal]

If we signed Duchene either he or Pettersson is moving to wing. There is no reason to have that kind of center depth when we are struggling to slot in quality wingers.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Where'd Luongo? said:

Ovechkin signed that deal over a decade ago. That's just silly.

I think the point was they couldn’t win with him until the overall cap hit percentage was more palatable.   When he signed that contract it was closer to 20% of the overall cap then 10%...

[Kobayashi Maru]

Not a huge fan of Duchene but there is merit to the signing.  Just put him on wing but you have the option to move to center if there is an injury to Petey or Bo.  I really think Sutter is gone and Gaudette is the third center and if a top 2 line center goes down we would struggle.  This does build flexibility.

 

Stralman for me is a no.  Build the d for the future.  

[Hindustan Smyl]

2 hours ago, Where'd Luongo? said:

Ovechkin signed that deal over a decade ago. That's just silly.

That’s why I emphasized “percentage” {[20192020Cap * OvechkinCap] / 20172018 cap]} = the highest that we should offer someone.

[Fakename70]

I'd love to see GMJB pull off a game-changing trade acquisition or UFA signing this summer. But, not one that includes Matt Duchene. Heck of a player, mostly, but, I'd like to see some L/R balance at the C position, and the squad is already set from the left side there. I'd change my tune if he were a righty, though. But, I'd definitely like to see Gaudette lock down that #3 C spot. 

[WHL rocks]

10 hours ago, Twilight Sparkle said:

oooo thats what i said to get tryamkin back in that other sucky thread! HIGH FIVE

Cheers 

[WHL rocks]

8 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

I'd rather not, until it becomes proven that teams can win with a player earning that much money.

 

As of this writing, the highest cap percentage player to win a cup was Alex Ovechkin last year (Ovechkin cap hit / 20172018 Team Salary Cap).   If you've noticed however, cup winning teams like Chicago, LA, Boston, and Pittsburgh had elite players that had much lower cap hits, relative to the overall percentage of their teams' cap.   

 

As it relates to the present?   Matt Duchene would likely receive a salary that would be less than that of Alex Ovechkin's cap percentage (i.e. OvechkinsCap / 20172018 Team Cap), while Karlsson and Panarin's cap percentage would likely greatly exceed that.......and as of this writing, it's not a proven model of success.

Hosa in Chicago.

[JeremyCuddles]

I'm game for Stralman, but for a forward I'd rather get a winger. Center is very good for us if Sutter can stay healthy. Bo and Petey are a great top 6 they just need to keep developing. They are both still under 25 and I feel adding another center would just hurt their development more than help. And why pay Duchene 9+mil to play wing when we can just sign Eberle or Connolly on much better deals to play wing? 

[Rob_Zepp]

So you propose the team goes from a CAP friendly team that is developing from within with a sprinkling of veteran FAs to assist the process to a CAP strapped team who will need to pay EP40, Hughes and BB at least what they overpay MD while an underpaid leader in Horvat is asked to take a third line role when he is a better player than MD?

 

Interesting proposal.

[Hindustan Smyl]

1 hour ago, Rob_Zepp said:

So you propose the team goes from a CAP friendly team that is developing from within with a sprinkling of veteran FAs to assist the process to a CAP strapped team who will need to pay EP40, Hughes and BB at least what they overpay MD while an underpaid leader in Horvat is asked to take a third line role when he is a better player than MD?

 

Interesting proposal.

Few things in response to this:

 

1) “two” is the magic number.  “Two”, as in take on cap dump players with two years left on their contracts, since they will come off the books just as we need to re-up Pettersson. 

 

2). In the new NHL, elite teams win with 3 scoring lines + 1 shut down line.  Gone are the days where it’s 2 scoring lines + 2 shut down lines.   Horvat would still get tons of ice-time with the Canucks are would still play important roles (ie PK, all situations, etc.).   Never underestimate the impact that a good center can have on his line mates.

 

If I’m Jake Virtanen for instance, I’m excited as hell that Horvat can be my Center (even in a 3rd line role) as opposed to a Brendan Sutter, because I’d have the opportunity to score goals and develop my offensive game.  Ditto for one of Baertschi or Goldobin.  Instead of having to play with Sutter or Beagle where offense goes to die, these guys could still get grade A chances with a very good center.

 

Ditto for prospects such as Lockwood, Jasek, Lind, etc., Who might make an unexpected push to make the line-up.   

 

Instead of having to crack the line-up and play with one of Sutter, Beagle, or a green Gaudette, you get placed with Horvat right away and get to develop your offensive game right away.

[Hindustan Smyl]

10 hours ago, N7Nucks said:

I'm game for Stralman, but for a forward I'd rather get a winger. Center is very good for us if Sutter can stay healthy. Bo and Petey are a great top 6 they just need to keep developing. They are both still under 25 and I feel adding another center would just hurt their development more than help. And why pay Duchene 9+mil to play wing when we can just sign Eberle or Connolly on much better deals to play wing? 

Never underestimate the impact that a good playmaking center can have on wingers.

 

For example - outside of Brock Boeser and Tanner Pearson, I think we can all agree that some of our other wingers such as Baertschi, Goldobin, Leivo, and Virtanen, aren’t necessarily guaranteed to play in the Top 6......and if these guys aren’t playing on the Top 6, they’d be playing with Sutter, Beagle, or a Green Gaudette.

 

Bottom 6 scoring was a huge problem for us last year.  As the year wore on, guys like Horvat, Boeser, and Pettersson got over-exerted, and we were far too dependent on them.   We got almost absolute zero offense from our bottom 6.

 

If you bring in another good center however, that changes.  Now all of a sudden, not only does that center produce big time on the 3rd line, but he helps elevate “bubble” winger such as Goldobin, Virtanen, Leivo, etc.   It becomes a rippling effect.

 

Don’t think for a second that a 3rd line C in today’s NHL has diminished importance.  Look no further than Toronto, and see what Nazem Kadri means to that team and how much he produces.

[JeremyCuddles]

1 hour ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

Never underestimate the impact that a good playmaking center can have on wingers.

 

For example - outside of Brock Boeser and Tanner Pearson, I think we can all agree that some of our other wingers such as Baertschi, Goldobin, Leivo, and Virtanen, aren’t necessarily guaranteed to play in the Top 6......and if these guys aren’t playing on the Top 6, they’d be playing with Sutter, Beagle, or a Green Gaudette.

 

Bottom 6 scoring was a huge problem for us last year.  As the year wore on, guys like Horvat, Boeser, and Pettersson got over-exerted, and we were far too dependent on them.   We got almost absolute zero offense from our bottom 6.

 

If you bring in another good center however, that changes.  Now all of a sudden, not only does that center produce big time on the 3rd line, but he helps elevate “bubble” winger such as Goldobin, Virtanen, Leivo, etc.   It becomes a rippling effect.

 

Don’t think for a second that a 3rd line C in today’s NHL has diminished importance.  Look no further than Toronto, and see what Nazem Kadri means to that team and how much he produces.

Signing a winger does everything you just said too. And we have a good few passable 3rd line centers. Gaudette, Sutter, Beagle will be holding down those bottom 6 center spots. Not even including MacEwen potentially throwing his name in there. Signing one of the top 6 Wingers will be cheaper and fill a more dire need.

 

Also there are some talks of trading Kadri cause they have too many top 6 centers. Not many teams, if any, run 3 top 6 centers. Definitely not for very long.

[Rob_Zepp]

7 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

Few things in response to this:

 

1) “two” is the magic number.  “Two”, as in take on cap dump players with two years left on their contracts, since they will come off the books just as we need to re-up Pettersson. 

 

2). In the new NHL, elite teams win with 3 scoring lines + 1 shut down line.  Gone are the days where it’s 2 scoring lines + 2 shut down lines.   Horvat would still get tons of ice-time with the Canucks are would still play important roles (ie PK, all situations, etc.).   Never underestimate the impact that a good center can have on his line mates.

 

If I’m Jake Virtanen for instance, I’m excited as hell that Horvat can be my Center (even in a 3rd line role) as opposed to a Brendan Sutter, because I’d have the opportunity to score goals and develop my offensive game.  Ditto for one of Baertschi or Goldobin.  Instead of having to play with Sutter or Beagle where offense goes to die, these guys could still get grade A chances with a very good center.

 

Ditto for prospects such as Lockwood, Jasek, Lind, etc., Who might make an unexpected push to make the line-up.   

 

Instead of having to crack the line-up and play with one of Sutter, Beagle, or a green Gaudette, you get placed with Horvat right away and get to develop your offensive game right away.

We could not be looking at this more differently.   Good luck.   

[Hindustan Smyl]

7 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

We could not be looking at this more differently.   Good luck.   

Fair enough.  

 

Don’t get me wrong - I completely “get” the other way and wouldn’t be opposed to getting 1-2 more wingers (ie Dzingel, Eberle, etc.), but ask yourself the following question:

 

Was top 6 scoring really a problem for us last year?  

 

I’m not so sure it was.  Guys like Pettersson, Horvat, and Boeser produced just fine.

 

I would argue that it was our severe lack of scoring from our bottom 6 that was a major issue.......perhaps the biggest reasons being that our bottom 6 centers couldn’t “playmake” their way out of a wet paper bag.

 

Ask yourself another question:   How easy or a transition would it be for our prospects on the AHL (Lind, Jasek, Lockwood, etc,) to truly make it to the Vancouver Canucks?   Right now - I’d say it would be extremely difficult for the following two reasons:

 

1) Said prospect would either have to make the team as a top 6 player (which is a HUGE jump from the AHL)......OR

 

2). Said prospect would have to play on the bottom 6 with centers that aren’t very good at setting up the offense (ie Beagle and Sutter).  Gaudette may very well turn out to be that guy but for now, he’s not.

 

However, with all of Pettersson, Duchene, and Horvat as our centers, it would just be a matter of playing on whatever line.......because no matter what line you play on, you will get your chances to score goals and grow your offensive game.

 

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

Fair enough.  

 

Don’t get me wrong - I completely “get” the other way and wouldn’t be opposed to getting 1-2 more wingers (ie Dzingel, Eberle, etc.), but ask yourself the following question:

 

Was top 6 scoring really a problem for us last year?  

 

I’m not so sure it was.  Guys like Pettersson, Horvat, and Boeser produced just fine.

 

I would argue that it was our severe lack of scoring from our bottom 6 that was a major issue.......perhaps the biggest reasons being that our bottom 6 centers couldn’t “playmake” their way out of a wet paper bag.

 

Ask yourself another question:   How easy or a transition would it be for our prospects on the AHL (Lind, Jasek, Lockwood, etc,) to truly make it to the Vancouver Canucks?   Right now - I’d say it would be extremely difficult for the following two reasons:

 

1) Said prospect would either have to make the team as a top 6 player (which is a HUGE jump from the AHL)......OR

 

2). Said prospect would have to play on the bottom 6 with centers that aren’t very good at setting up the offense (ie Beagle and Sutter).  Gaudette may very well turn out to be that guy but for now, he’s not.

 

However, with all of Pettersson, Duchene, and Horvat as our centers, it would just be a matter of playing on whatever line.......because no matter what line you play on, you will get your chances to score goals and grow your offensive game.

 

I’d bet Duchene would end up on the wing regardless...we just don’t have enough quality wingers and both TB and TO (other teams that have second line centres on the third line) have wingers in spades to match up with them.   Duchene might not produce as well as Horvat did with Pearson, and he’s not suitable as a third line guy...last year he played with Stone in OTT and then Panarin in CLB, we won’t get PPG production from him on the second line with Pearson and a bag of pucks...Horvat would get more IMO.

 

I can see Green loading up the first line and using him as an injury replacement absolutely, and there is great value in that, but dropping Horvat into a complete shut down role on the third line  with little to no offensive  winger support, and Duchene taking his spot...well that’s an expensive second and third line center to say the least.  

 

Id still consider it because if you can add a player like him you have to consider it.  He’s fast and in many ways better than Boeser when it comes to stickhandling and puck control, right along with the current trend, and with EPs IQ you just know he will figure out a good way to use him.   The down side is he’s small and EPs already taken a beating...man I really would much rather have Wilson or a big body that can play and do the board work too (Stone! You a-hole should have signed with us!)

 

As another poster mentioned if we are going that far into cap uncertainty why not go all he way and buy Panarin for a couple more million (costs us Schallers salary when he’s done).  He’s a proven goal scorer and playmaker with an elite all around game...scary to think what that line could do together.  

 

I get the reasoning (three centres deep)...unfortunately that’s not really a sustainable thing for most teams, it would cost us close to 25 million once EPs got his pay day...we are better off keeping a cheaper 3rd line center to shut lines down, and when Horvat or EP get injured move Duchene to center...or maybe just not bother with it.  Wonder if we could get two decent players with size for 4.5 each...one to play with EP and one on Horvats right side?  What was Neal’s salary again?  I know he sucked last year but his cap hit isn’t ridiculous either.   And that Tuch kid in Vegas... two 20-20 guys that aren’t defensive liabilities and around that price would out produce one Duchene and offer intangibles if they had size and good on the boards...food for thought

[Rob_Zepp]

11 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

Was top 6 scoring really a problem for us last year?  

 

 

 

I would argue that it was our severe lack of scoring from our bottom 6 that was a major issue

It's called a rebuild and the holes are slowly being filled.   Expect another younger player into the "bottom six" next year (Gaudette was rushed a bit this past season but could look good there next year, for example).

[GritGrinder]

Two things:

 

• You said "Was top 6 scoring really a problem for us last season?" and then mentioned just 3 players, so top 6 scoring does seem to be a bit of a problem.
• Bo has averaged 26 assists a season (based on 82 games) for 5 seasons but in your scenario it sounds like he'll get even less offensive ice time and you still expect him to get his linemates "more chances" and "grow their offensive game". How exactly..? Do you think being a 3rd line center who is on the PK and gets less O-zone starts than the other 2 centers will put up more than 26 assists?

Edited June 11, 2019 by GritGrinder