[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[danaimo]

5 minutes ago, Provost said:

The. If point you are entirely ignoring, even though you are typing it is that 1st round picks ARE overvalued.  GMs value them very highly... so you should be able to extract a lot of value for one... 

 

We didn’t and the big consensus from pundits outside both markets is that Tampa got great value for a move that they had to make.

 

You can’t just choose to take the trade in isolation and not consider the full picture and the opportunity cost of not being able to make another move because the asset has now been traded away.  If you can get player A for an asset, or a better player B for that same asset, you are suggesting that is entirely irrelevant.

 

The other thing you can’t take in isolation is the situation.  Tampa was risking not being able to sign Point, or even having him offer sheeted.  This trade removed that issue from them entirely.  You suggest Tampa is taking all the risk, and that couldn’t be further from the truth.  Tampa removed a crap ton of risk in freeing up the cap space, and return at all for that is gravy and not a risk at all. 

[Noble 6]

48 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

 

You did not seriously say that?  Not only do we have Bo, Boeser, and Petey which despite mass injuries had us to within weeks of the playoffs, but now adding Hughes and Miller and about to get new RDs?  Did you not watch any games last year, or have any idea what the roster looks like?

 

I'm not saying that's what will happen, if you read my post. 

 

Until we see any meaningful improvements to the defense I think we'll still he a bubble team at risk of imploding at a couple of a injuries. Hughes for a year is a great addition but not enough. Likely our best trade chip (1st rounder) was used on a forward, so I'm not sure we'll see a big enough improvement on the back end.

[Bure_Pavel]

48 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

Holy hyperbolic DRAMA.

 

Overpay what?  What do you actually think the value is of a prime-age 50-60 point top-6 C/W locked into a good contract?  Mere rentals get far more return than a future 1st a year or two from now.

 

If our team is still all that crappy, we have a lotto pick in that draft.  So what's the problem?

 

Right, use up our cap space on garbage instead of improving the team, just to get some magic beans?  Oh wait, you'd rather eat it up with Subban... but then he might get the team to squeak into the playoffs and miss out on the lotto (just like Miller might do) and you've given up multiple 2nds in the process to boot.

To be honest I would have rather given two 2nd's for Subban, he is a difference maker RD, exactly what we needed and they keep their first. Great move by Shero.   

 

It also puts more pressure on Benning to throw away our cap space to probably Myers, which the rumors are 7 x 7-8 years. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Bure_Pavel

[oldnews]

Myth:  that the Canucks now 'lack leverage' in pursuing a defenseman.

 

First, they have no more or less 'leverage' than they did before a Miller deal.

 

Second - they have cap space, they have an opportunity to offer UFAs and/or add tradeable assets/picks via taking a short term dump - they have signficant minutes,  potentially with a young talent like Hughes to offer UFAs - they have expendable secondary forward assets, prospects, picks if they elect to target a mid-range trade (or even a higher range trade) - and there are numerous viable veteran options in both the mid range free agent market (where 'leverage' is literally irrelevent) and probably the trade market (ie secondary options like Dillon would be entirely sufficient at this stage).

 

This 'lack of leverage' story is entirely contrived.

[J-P]

5 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

To be honest I would have rather given two 2nd's for Subban, he is a difference maker RD, exactly what we needed and they keep their first. Great move by Shero.   

Reportedly only one team in the league was prepared to cover Subban's entire contract without any retention (that's also why the trading cost was as low as it was). This means Shero sees and understands something *every* other GM in the league does not, or else it means...

[danaimo]

3 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Myth:  that the Canucks now 'lack leverage' in pursuing a defenseman.

 

First, they have no more or less 'leverage' than they did before a Miller deal.

 

Second - they have cap space, they have an opportunity to offer UFAs and/or add tradeable assets/picks via taking a short term dump - they have signficant minutes,  potentially with a young talent like Hughes to offer UFAs - they have expendable secondary forward assets, prospects, picks if they elect to target a mid-range trade (or even a higher range trade) - and there are numerous viable veteran options in both the mid range free agent market (where 'leverage' is literally irrelevent) and probably the trade market (ie secondary options like Dillon would be entirely sufficient at this stage).

 

This 'lack of leverage' story is entirely contrived.

Partially true.  The lack of leverage is only relevant if the team your trading with wants a 1st round pick, ie possibly COL with Tyson Barrie.  But the lack of leverage argument for a free agent is a complete myth and I suspect people use it without fully understanding what it means.  Like that ever happens!! 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Bure_Pavel said:

He just turned 22, and actually has a decent 2 way game. In two years the difference in players will be apples and oranges. 

I have no issues with Boes, but he's not a 2 way player and he doesn't drive the play.  He's the trigger man for a play driver like Petey, Bo and Baer.  There's nothing wrong with that, every team needs those guys.

[Maketherightmove]

3 minutes ago, J-P said:

Reportedly only one team in the league was prepared to cover Subban's entire contract without any retention (that's also why the trading cost was as low as it was). This means Shero sees and understands something *every* other GM in the league does not, or else it means...

Subban's contract is brutal, but if you're going to turn around and give Myers $7+ for 7 years then Subban at $2M more per year for 3 years isn't that much worse, and for a much better player. 

 

I don't like the thought of either of them on the back end but I can feel it in my bones that the Canucks are going to overpay bigtime for one of these mediocre D that's left come the 1st. 

[Maketherightmove]

Just now, stawns said:

I have no issues with Boes, but he's not a 2 way player and he doesn't drive the play.  He's the trigger man for a play driver like Petey, Bo and Baer.  There's nothing wrong with that, every team needs those guys.

Calling Baer a play driver dilutes your point significantly. 

[Analyst82]

27 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Bo would play the most minutes of any center on that team.  Call him whatever.  Bo would PK, play 5 on 5 against toughest match-ups, and second unit PP.  Likely Stamkos would play wing.  

That's a possibility as well. Let's hope we never have to find out (unless Stamkos moves to the Canucks of course).

[oldnews]

Ristolainen

Cernak

Mayfeild

Dillon

Myers

Stralman

Hainsey

Benn

Kronwall

Girardi

Engelland

Chiarot

Gunnarsson

Petrovic

Sbisa, Schenn 

 

wake me up when none of those - and a number of other viable options - are no longer possibilities.

 

a lot of potential both young trade possibilities (many of them not touched upon here - and I'm not talking Tyson Barrie types or guys with expiring contracts) - as well as viable veteran short term contracts - that also enable the team to retain the leverage they have moving forward (as if they don't have cap to 'weoponize' if they elect to).

 

(er, I almost forgot Zaitsev lol).

 

But, but what a shame the team has no 'leverage' - ?? - that contrived and overstated factor alone will certainly sandbag the summer
 

 

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, oldnews said:

(er, I almost forgot Zaitsev lol).

...and Miller 

 

All the Miller's!

 

 

Let's get Ryan back here too!!

 

 

[stawns]

9 minutes ago, Maketherightmove said:

Calling Baer a play driver dilutes your point significantly. 

Baer is a good play driver......he often carries the puck into the zone and he's a setup guy for someone like Boes.  People vastly underrate what Sven brings to the table when he's healthy.  He's right there with Bo for ppg

[Maketherightmove]

1 minute ago, oldnews said:

Ristolainen - Canucks don't have the pieces to acquire

Cernak - Not an improvement

Mayfeild - Not an improvement unless it's Baker you're going for here (marketability purposes)

Dillon - Not an improvement

Myers - Will demand too much and too long of a term, not a very good player despite his size

Stralman - decent option that hopefully could be had for reasonable $ and term

Hainsey - I know he had a decent year but he's 90 and is really only a depth guy

Benn - Depth, not really an improvement, but would welcome on a reasonable contract

Kronwall - Disgusting to even suggest, finished

Girardi - Same as Kronwall, finished

Engelland - Vegas for nothing or finished

Chiarot - Not an improvement

Gunnarsson - Not an improvement

Petrovic - Not an improvement

Sbisa, Schenn   Schenn would be great. 

 

wake me up when none of those - and a number of other viable options - are no longer possibilities.

 

a lot of potential both young trade possibilities (many of them not touched upon here - and I'm not talking Tyson Barrie types or guys with expiring contracts) - as well as viable veteran short term contracts - that also enable the team to retain the leverage they have moving forward (as if they don't have cap to 'weoponize' if they elect to).

 

(er, I almost forgot Zaitsev lol).

 

But, but what a shame the team has no 'leverage' - ?? - that contrived and overstated factor alone will certainly sandbag the summer
 

 

 

[appleboy]

4 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Ristolainen

Cernak

Mayfeild

Dillon

Myers

Stralman

Hainsey

Benn

Kronwall

Girardi

Engelland

Chiarot

Gunnarsson

Petrovic

Sbisa, Schenn    Del Zotto   

 

wake me up when none of those - and a number of other viable options - are no longer possibilities.

 

a lot of potential both young trade possibilities (many of them not touched upon here - and I'm not talking Tyson Barrie types or guys with expiring contracts) - as well as viable veteran short term contracts - that also enable the team to retain the leverage they have moving forward (as if they don't have cap to 'weoponize' if they elect to).

 

(er, I almost forgot Zaitsev lol).

 

But, but what a shame the team has no 'leverage' - ?? - that contrived and overstated factor alone will certainly sandbag the summer
 

 

The only leverage required is $$$$$$$$$.   Mind you they will need to pry some of that free from LE's clutches.  We don't have much to trade.

I think they need to look for a shut down guy. One who can eat up a ton of minutes.      (TRYAMKIN like) 

Hughes was drafted and signed to push the play. Lets se what he can do.

[Googlie]

The only gripe I have with the (conditional) 1st round pick being lost is that it takes the offer sheet (for $4,228 million or more) out of our arsenal.  The first round pick must be 2020 and has to be indigenous, can't be one that we acquire, and can't be encumbered (can't be used twice)

 

The only saving grace is that if it is indeed a 2020 pick that TBL gets, it will be a 17th or later.

[theo5789]

39 minutes ago, Provost said:

Except you are entirely missing the entire point.

 

If we were negotiating a trade for a D during the seedy weekend, we aren’t over a barrel because there are several

available and we have the ability to say no thanks and move on to free agency.  That is entirely different than having used our biggest trade chip already and only having 2-3 UFA D who fill out needs.  

 

I have done done a lot of high level negotiating, and there is a concept called a BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement).  Essentially, you do a lot of work ahead of time to put yourself in a position where you aren’t as desperate, and know when waking away is better than signing a bad deal.  In this case, Benning has a terrible BATNA... going into next season with the same D core AND having already played his hand showing that we need to add and go for it so our pick to Tampa isn’t a disaster.

 

If he had been negotiating with a bunch of teams on the weekend, he has a much better walk away BATNA back up plan of moving on to free agency and Myers.

Who's to say he wasn't negotiating with a bunch of teams over the weekend and found the cost to acquire a dman far too high so then he decided to move onto the "back up plan" of free agency? Clearly a 1st was in play for the Canucks, we don't know which teams it was offered to, but from the rumours available and the fact that no deals happened, it's safe to say that the offer we gave up wasn't enough to bring in any of those D. Now those teams that maybe were hoping to move their dman for help elsewhere are at risk of us signing a UFA and taking ourselves off the trade market. It's up to them to lower their price and we do not have the 1st for them to wait on anymore because they set their original price too high.

 

Myers has a local connection here, so we may already have a leg up on negotiations should their be a fit. If Myers is asking too much, then we move onto the next plan where we see what Vegas wants to dump cap and maybe Colin Miller is available for cheap or even with a sweetener. Pittsburgh may want to dump Schultz and add a sweetener. There are still so many other viable options that I don't see how we are over a barrel at this point. There's still a long offseason ahead.

[oldnews]

10 minutes ago, aGENT said:

...and Miller 

 

All the Miller's!

 

 

Let's get Ryan back here too!!

 

 

Miller would not be on my list.

He will not come cheap (despite illusions that key players on teams with tight cap issues necessarily become 'cap dump's or 'cheap')

 

And he's not really the type of player imo the team needs (unless you propose additional moves - ie moving Tanev and adding a heavier hard minutes defenseman).

 

In any event, I'd be more inclined to do something like I suggested in another thread:

Take Clarkson and Reaves contracts off Vegas' hands - send a lower cap marginal forward contract back.

Use the pick you get as compensation for that dump and either put it in the bank, or use it in a D acquisition.

The Canucks don't need all their cap space immediately - if they elect to, they could still get enough work done in spite of the limiting factor or Clarkson's offseason cap hit.

Or they could simply pursue a Myers to the point it remains reasonable.

Vegas moves MIller - they need to replace Miller, period - he's not the guy they are going to look to solve cap tightness unless they get paid for him.

Anyhow, they have lots of cap, flexibility, options, and 'leverage' lol.  The only thing they don't have is one 1st round pick from the future - which if they were really intent, they could regain by 'weoponizing' their very real cap leverage.    The 'lack of leverage' story is hopelessly oversimplified.

Edited June 24, 2019 by oldnews

[oldnews]

8 minutes ago, Maketherightmove said:

 

cool one-liners

'not an improvement' on what?  LOL

 I can't take them/your post seriously wadr. 

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Miller would not be on my list.

He will not come cheap (despite illusions that key players on teams with tight cap issues necessarily become 'cap dump's or 'cheap')

 

And he's not really the type of player imo the team needs (unless you propose additional moves - ie moving Tanev and adding a heavier hard minutes defenseman).

 

In any event, I'd be more inclined to do something like I suggested in another thread:

Take Clarkson and Reaves contracts off Vegas' hands - send a lower cap marginal forward contract back.

Use the pick you get as compensation for that dump and either put it in the bank, or use it in a D acquisition.

The Canucks don't need all their cap space immediately - if they elect to, they could still get enough work done in spite of the limiting factor or Clarkson's offseason cap hit.

Or they could simply pursue a Myers to the point it remains reasonable.

Vegas moves MIller - they need to replace Miller, period - he's not the guy they are going to look to solve cap tightness unless they get paid for him.

Anyhow, they have lots of cap, flexibility, options, and 'leverage' lol.  The only thing they don't have is one 1st round pick from the future - which if they were really intent, they could regain by 'weoponizing' their very real cap leverage.    The 'lack of leverage' story is hopelessly oversimplified.

I would.

 

Move Tanev, sign a Stralman/Myers etc, trade for Miller. In theory anyway...