Davathor Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 I was thinking about this watching flames/Oilers last night. Best case scenario was Calgary wins, keeping them both only slightly above us. But in reality it really doesn't matter, because almost every night teams above us are winning... or worse yet winning in OT. The Canucks would have to take over just to slip into the playoffs, and I don't see it happening. We should be shopping any veterans signed past this season to try and better our Grim cap situation. Besides that high 1st rounder, nothing should be off the table. This ain't the year boys. And in typical Canucks fashion, it's during a monumental season we will never see the likes of again. All Canadian division, huge rivalries, canadian playoffs, games every 2nd day... $%@^#% typical Canucks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandmaster Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Davathor said: I was thinking about this watching flames/Oilers last night. Best case scenario was Calgary wins, keeping them both only slightly above us. But in reality it really doesn't matter, because almost every night teams above us are winning... or worse yet winning in OT. The Canucks would have to take over just to slip into the playoffs, and I don't see it happening. We should be shopping any veterans signed past this season to try and better our Grim cap situation. Besides that high 1st rounder, nothing should be off the table. This ain't the year boys. And in typical Canucks fashion, it's during a monumental season we will never see the likes of again. All Canadian division, huge rivalries, canadian playoffs, games every 2nd day... $%@^#% typical Canucks Truth. Hence the OP’s many attempts at explaining this. It’s unfortunate there are some folks who just don’t get it or refuse to get it out of some pig headed mind frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, grandmaster said: Give up my friend. Some folks will never be open to anything when they are so ignorant and arrogant like old news Shrug... I mostly do, the guy has some weird crush on me ever since the first time I made him look silly. I had gotten tired of seeing him bully other folks with just complete nonsense, and he has stalked my posts ever since out of desperate frustration to “get a win” and have a few folks to like his posts. I am wrong sometimes... certainly not as often as he is... but we all are. The difference is how aggressive he is about being wrong and how he doubles down with the same tricks to avoid admitting that he always turns out to be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, ImConfused said: @Provost Is there any point to this thread by the way? Like, what is it supposed to accomplish? You just want to point out how bad the team is and how bad Benning is and how we're so screwed and we'll never win the Cup? Or is it just you trying to stir up discord? Only on this forum can someone haughtily take offense to someone posting verifiable facts and objective reality... and do it without a blush, Sorry that the actual mathematical truth is in discord with your feelings... the great thing about truth is that it doesn't particularly care about your feelings. "The Playoffs are Almost out of Reach" Yes they are... all the models range from about 4%-10% chance at this point. That is verifiable objective reality. It makes me sad too, but you getting so angry to attack the messenger is silly.http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.htmlhttps://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgihttp://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/nhlpostseasonprob.html https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nhl/playoff-odds/ https://theathletic.com/2318775/2021/02/20/nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-projected-standings/ I can't believe I have to explain this to (maybe?) grown adults. It is important to consider actual reality in order to make evidence based decisions and inform our opinions. In this case, folks really need to put their minds towards how the team can best set itself up to win... and that is almost certainly not going to be this year. We can all hope and wish for it not to be the case... but is very likely to be the case. Keep in mind that I am just talking about making it into the playoffs at this point being extra-ordinarily against the odds... that isn't even broaching the subject of actually winning the Cup. Accepting objective reality lets you make rational evidence based decisions like not wanting any trades to happen to "right the ship" in the short term. In addition it lets you consider a plan and what moves would actually have a higher likelihood of helping the team win in future seasons which aren't already mostly out of reach. Start thinking about our rentals and having conversation with teams about trade possibilities... especially US ones that would need to make moves well in advance of the deadline. Nashville is 4 games under .500 just like us and are already putting it out there about becoming sellers. It takes time to mark trades so we should be putting out the word right now that we are soon to become sellers. We have opportunities to improve our team for future seasons. That will involve exiting as many veteran players as we can when prices are at their highest at the trade deadline (like happens every year). Benn, Sutter, and Pearson are ideal rentals.... Baertschi even possibly. I would give the team another week or two (probably after the March 6th Toronto game which is half the season) to be at or above .500... and if not, then start actively selling off as many players to US teams as possible before many other teams get into "sell" mode. Get as many draft picks or expansion protected prospects as possible as the return, retain salary to lubricate the deals and make it easier to get a better return. The reason we want to send those players to US teams is that Canadian teams making a push for the playoffs at the deadline are going to be stuck trading with JUST other Canadian teams. Those Canadian teams will just be us and Ottawa. If the only pure rental players left on this side of the border are Ottawa's "Gudbranson, Stepan, Reilly, and Anisimov" (because we have already sold off our rentals) and there are 5 teams wanting to stock up... suddenly we have a solid chance of creating a market for Roussel and Beagle even though they have term left. A team looking to get into a playoff spot and in an arms race with other division rivals may well accept that extra year of term because they don't have any better options. Why do this earlier rather than at the deadline? Because we would be selling before most teams decide to, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY if we do it in early March we can ditch enough cap space that we can actually suddenly absorb a good deal of the Petterson and Hughes ELC bonuses and not push them into next season... even with Ferland's LTIR That wouldn't be the case if we waited until the trade deadline as most of the contracts would have been paid. That benefit will be worth WAY more to our team moving forward than a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs. 50% of the season left means that by moving just Sutter, Pearson, and Benn... you can gain up to $5 million dollars in cap savings which puts us under the ceiling. If you can subsequently move any of Roussel, Beagle, Hamonic, or Baertschi you are paying most of those ELC bonuses which are going to cost us depth again moving forward beyond this season. ... but you know... hey ignore all that and go with what makes you feel better so we can make bad decisions and affect the future of the team. Edited February 21, 2021 by Provost 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
higgyfan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Provost said: ... but you know... hey ignore all that and go with what makes you feel better so we can make bad decisions and affect the future of the team. I don't think what you, me or anyone else on this board thinks or feels has a factor in what management chooses to do. The Teams's management group are privy to a lot of details regarding the team's future that fans are unaware of. I would find it hard to believe that they haven't considered the concepts of what you are stating in your post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, higgyfan said: I don't think what you, me or anyone else on this board thinks or feels has a factor in what management chooses to do. The Teams's management group are privy to a lot of details regarding the team's future that fans are unaware of. I would find it hard to believe that they haven't considered the concepts of what you are stating in your post. We are discussing all those concepts... that is literally the point of the forum. If we took your logic , we should shut it down entirely since nothing we say really matters. Doing it based on reality should be at least a consideration. I would be surprised if this management has considered it all. Way harder to be unemotional when you job is at stake, I know I couldn’t be. Lots of GMs allow themselves to get sucked into the mirage of being in a playoff hunt much longer than they really are. Edited February 21, 2021 by Provost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 hours ago, grandmaster said: You’re acting like a troll. You asked for sources and he gave you some. The thing about you is that you could never admit you are wrong No - if you wasted the time to read this train wreck of a thread / what you were responding to - you'd realize that I asked for the "experts" of the hockey world that @Provost pretends to speak for - not a gaggle of twitter or amateur hockey writers. You paratrooped in with a misrepresention. It's a appeal to fake authority fabricated literally every time these discussions come up...."but I'm Provost, and I speak for all the hockey experts of the world". On 2/19/2021 at 12:08 PM, Provost said: The sum total of hundreds of years or hockey knowledge by actual experts gives a good sense of objective reality. No - some random Robs on Twitter or teenagers writing thw articles are not the sum of "a hundred years...of hockey experts" - nor can anyone else be expected to accept them as such. So if you have a posiition on the actual subtance in question - as opposed to pretending to play mini-mod or referree to a discussion you haven't paid attention to, then let it rip. If you expect an 'admission' of 'being wrong' - some twitter crap or amateur journalism does not by default qualify as expert sources that end the discussion. What I wanted a mere source for was the alleged rumour that Benning turned down a deal to Ottawa that would have sent Eriksson there with Virtanen as compensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImConfused Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, Provost said: Only on this forum can someone haughtily take offense to someone posting verifiable facts and objective reality... and do it without a blush, Sorry that the actual mathematical truth is in discord with your feelings... the great thing about truth is that it doesn't particularly care about your feelings. "The Playoffs are Almost out of Reach" Yes they are... all the models range from about 4%-10% chance at this point. That is verifiable objective reality. It makes me sad too, but you getting so angry to attack the messenger is silly.http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.htmlhttps://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgihttp://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/nhlpostseasonprob.html https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nhl/playoff-odds/ https://theathletic.com/2318775/2021/02/20/nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-projected-standings/ I can't believe I have to explain this to (maybe?) grown adults. It is important to consider actual reality in order to make evidence based decisions and inform our opinions. In this case, folks really need to put their minds towards how the team can best set itself up to win... and that is almost certainly not going to be this year. We can all hope and wish for it not to be the case... but is very likely to be the case. Keep in mind that I am just talking about making it into the playoffs at this point being extra-ordinarily against the odds... that isn't even broaching the subject of actually winning the Cup. Accepting objective reality lets you make rational evidence based decisions like not wanting any trades to happen to "right the ship" in the short term. In addition it lets you consider a plan and what moves would actually have a higher likelihood of helping the team win in future seasons which aren't already mostly out of reach. Start thinking about our rentals and having conversation with teams about trade possibilities... especially US ones that would need to make moves well in advance of the deadline. Nashville is 4 games under .500 just like us and are already putting it out there about becoming sellers. It takes time to mark trades so we should be putting out the word right now that we are soon to become sellers. We have opportunities to improve our team for future seasons. That will involve exiting as many veteran players as we can when prices are at their highest at the trade deadline (like happens every year). Benn, Sutter, and Pearson are ideal rentals.... Baertschi even possibly. I would give the team another week or two (probably after the March 6th Toronto game which is half the season) to be at or above .500... and if not, then start actively selling off as many players to US teams as possible before many other teams get into "sell" mode. Get as many draft picks or expansion protected prospects as possible as the return, retain salary to lubricate the deals and make it easier to get a better return. The reason we want to send those players to US teams is that Canadian teams making a push for the playoffs at the deadline are going to be stuck trading with JUST other Canadian teams. Those Canadian teams will just be us and Ottawa. If the only pure rental players left on this side of the border are Ottawa's "Gudbranson, Stepan, Reilly, and Anisimov" (because we have already sold off our rentals) and there are 5 teams wanting to stock up... suddenly we have a solid chance of creating a market for Roussel and Beagle even though they have term left. A team looking to get into a playoff spot and in an arms race with other division rivals may well accept that extra year of term because they don't have any better options. Why do this earlier rather than at the deadline? Because we would be selling before most teams decide to, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY if we do it in early March we can ditch enough cap space that we can actually suddenly absorb a good deal of the Petterson and Hughes ELC bonuses and not push them into next season... even with Ferland's LTIR That wouldn't be the case if we waited until the trade deadline as most of the contracts would have been paid. That benefit will be worth WAY more to our team moving forward than a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs. 50% of the season left means that by moving just Sutter, Pearson, and Benn... you can gain up to $5 million dollars in cap savings which puts us under the ceiling. If you can subsequently move any of Roussel, Beagle, Hamonic, or Baertschi you are paying most of those ELC bonuses which are going to cost us depth again moving forward beyond this season. ... but you know... hey ignore all that and go with what makes you feel better so we can make bad decisions and affect the future of the team. What? That didn't answer my question at all. What's the point of this thread? What does it accomplish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
higgyfan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Provost said: We are discussing all those concepts... that is literally the point of the forum. Doing it based on reality should be at least a consideration l. In reality, if we "ignore all that and go with what makes you feel better so we can make bad decisions and affect the future of the team" isn't what will happen. It's fun for fans to gab about what they want to see happen for the team, but the reality of it, is their ideas rarely come to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImConfused Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, higgyfan said: In reality, if we "ignore all that and go with what makes you feel better so we can make bad decisions and affect the future of the team" isn't what will happen. It's fun for fans to gab about what they want to see happen for the team, but the reality of it, is their ideas rarely come to fruition. Yeah, it's not like I'm going to go and sell off Horvat and Hoglander because I think we can make the playoffs this year. I'm not Benning. So that's why this entire thread is kinda.. confusing.. lol Good reads though either way, brb need more popcorn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Provost said: ... still waiting for your "expert" sources suggesting those players are not a weakness of our roster? crickets again as always. weak attempt to reverse your own onus. When I start citing that my opinion represents all the "experts" of the hockey world - a cumulation of 100 years of knowledge LOL - then I will do as you do - and feel the need to provide these fake "expert" sources to prop up such a ludicrous claim. As opposed to your fake/flake appeals to pseudo 'authorities' - I state my opinion and substantiate it - which I state clearly - ie I speak for myself, and present my own opinion - not some pretend/ imaginary academy of hockey Professors that you attempt to cloak yourself with. Spewing your twitter or thw 'sources' is a laughable substitution. It's what you do. I get why you feel the need to rely on pseudo experts . On 1/22/2021 at 6:46 PM, Provost said: I have a problem with a player that scores 18 goals but costs 30 goals against when he is on the ice When you do your own work - the 'analytics' wind up being fake metrics you pull straight out of your ass. Or do you have a 'metric' or "expert" to qualify this? Edited February 21, 2021 by oldnews 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
higgyfan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 54 minutes ago, ImConfused said: Yeah, it's not like I'm going to go and sell off Horvat and Hoglander because I think we can make the playoffs this year. I'm not Benning. So that's why this entire thread is kinda.. confusing.. lol Good reads though either way, brb need more popcorn I don't get worked up about the really daft proposals. There are some very young and inexperienced fans onboard, as well as sprinkling of fans who understand the endless (short term and long term) details in running/building an NHL hockey team. I'm certainly not one of those. It's great that the more knowledgeable fans can share their experience and educated views with others on the forum. Regardless, it's just a fan board. Have some fun, a few laughs, learn something new and GCG. Edited February 21, 2021 by higgyfan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanucks25 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, oldnews said: t's a appeal to fake authority fabricated literally every time these discussions come up...."but I'm Provost, and I speak for all the hockey experts of the world". No - some random Robs on Twitter or teenagers writing thw articles are not the sum of "a hundred years...of hockey experts" - nor can anyone else be expected to accept them as such. Why don't you just make it easier on everybody and find a reputable source that claims the Canucks are in a fantastic position cap-wise and the main reason is the Beagle, Sutter, etc. type contracts because of how important they are to the team? Since you're going to refute every source that claims otherwise (which is literally every source except probably Andrew Walker). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImConfused Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, kanucks25 said: Why don't you just make it easier on everybody and find a reputable source that claims the Canucks are in a fantastic position cap-wise and the main reason is the Beagle, Sutter, etc. type contracts because of how important they are to the team? Since you're going to refute every source that claims otherwise (which is literally every source except probably Andrew Walker). I don't think anyone's claiming that our cap situation and the amount we pay to lower-tier players is a good thing though, are they? Like obviously there's the Eriksson deal (bleh) and then Sutter, Ferland, Beagle etc make more than they should, but this doesn't then make them the "worst bottom 6 in the league", does it? It's like Luongo. Yes, that contract sucked, as he stated himself. Did it make him one of the worst goalies in the league? No 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 5 hours ago, ImConfused said: No I was just saying that I'm pretty sure that opinion is not "universal", nothing to do with your English, just your faulty logic. Please cite at least 20 sources for this, should be easy considering it is so "universal" Have a good day friend and enjoy your pessimism and negativity Hockey Rob, Sartaaj Bhullar, Harman Dayal.... You know - the "universal" concensus of all the experts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, kanucks25 said: Why don't you just make it easier on everybody and find a reputable source that claims the Canucks are in a fantastic position cap-wise and the main reason is the Beagle, Sutter, etc. type contracts because of how important they are to the team? Why don't you find a reputable source that says the reason the Canucks are in a steep uphill battle to get back into striking distance of playoff contention - is because veterans like Beagle have performed so poorly. Or better yet - make the case yourself - because I couldn't gas less about finding a 'reputable source' to qualify that strawman. Good luck with that. The reality is that the reason this team has struggled this badly - is ironically the underperformance of the 'stars' - Hughes has gotten killed 5 on 5 (-13, 68.7% ozone starts), EP with 77.5% ozone starts has 2 even strength goals in 21 games, Miller has had a very slow start to the season, Horvat's line although in harder minutes, hasn't fared much better. So carry on with the cool story of a bottom six that has let the team down, but wadr - guys like Motte and Beagle have been alongside Boeser and Hoglander as the best performing forwards thus far this season. I won't bother to repeat the outcomes that evidence that - I've posted them - my own work - enought times that if you cared to take issue with the actual outcomes, their are plenty of posts to take issue with - if you have any substance to counterpoint with - fill your boots. Edited February 21, 2021 by oldnews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanfor42 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 43 minutes ago, ImConfused said: What? That didn't answer my question at all. What's the point of this thread? What does it accomplish? The point of the thread seems to be look at me. I've ben posting here for a long time so that makes me an expert. I am frustrated with this team so I am going to declare that their chances at the playoffs are virtually over. The rest of the way if the Canucks do this: vs Tor 3-3 vs Mtl 3-2 vs Edm 5-3 vs Wpg 4-3 vs Cal 3-1 vs Ott 5-1 They wind up the year at 30-25-1 and in the playoffs. Not impossible at all. And even if they don't make it this year has some fantastic developments that have us on track to be a contending team in two years. Hogz and Juolevi. Demko getting there. The top 5 scorers. And the fact that in two years we have $$$. I get being frustrated but it is a little tiring when people become self appointed experts in order to preach their statistical "truths". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 17 hours ago, ImConfused said: There you go using words literally that you don't quite understand again like "mathematically eliminated" But it sounds better - more "authoritative' when you claim your opinion is "universally"' held - as Provost does... and of course, he's not the arrogant one here.... 6 hours ago, ImConfused said: @Provost Is there any point to this thread by the way? Like, what is it supposed to accomplish? You just want to point out how bad the team is and how bad Benning is and how we're so screwed and we'll never win the Cup? Or is it just you trying to stir up discord? At least I'm smart enough not to have to resort to ad hominem I think the point it to keep firing shat at the wall until it sticks. Last year's draft lottery thread - was hopelessly premature - and blew up in his face. The team made the playoffs - knocked off the defending Stanley Cup Champions in very impressive fashion....not exactly a lottery season - and further, reduced the principal acquisition cost of Miller to a 20th overall pick... Miller - the guy that 'all the experts' in this market called a 'cap dump' and an overpaid 3rd line center.......how could anyone question the 'experts'? Edited February 21, 2021 by oldnews 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sedinyoureyesontheprize Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Which way we trending guys ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandmaster Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, oldnews said: No - if you wasted the time to read this train wreck of a thread / what you were responding to - you'd realize that I asked for the "experts" of the hockey world that @Provost pretends to speak for - not a gaggle of twitter or amateur hockey writers. You paratrooped in with a misrepresention. It's a appeal to fake authority fabricated literally every time these discussions come up...."but I'm Provost, and I speak for all the hockey experts of the world". The whole point of this thread was to raise awareness that the playoffs are not gonna happen and the discussion you speak of is irrelevant. You know you can easily respond in a better way when you have different opinions. You often have this sanctimonious and arrogant way about you. It rubs people the wrong way and you often get into these battles. It would be nice if you were a bit more respectful to others. Take it for what it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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