[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[RU SERIOUS]

8 hours ago, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 
 

I just checked with my math prof and he calculated it too.............

 

 

.............and said we're FU$^&d Too !

[oldnews]

If you're going to have a brutal 15 game stretch in a season, you may as well have it right out of the gate.

 

First - with such a young group, a short camp/preseason, and ridiculous schedule right out of the gate - it should not have been expected that this team would fare as well immediately as more veteran teams that need the preparation less (and arguably, the rest).

 

So if it lights a fire under this group to set their bar higher - high enough to climb back in against tightening odds - so be it. in

 

The Canucks are in a position now where they need to go on a relative tear.   Let's see if they can.  I'm not betting against them - they have outplayed their opponents the last handful of games, and they arguably have room for  a significant amount of improvement/return to mean from some of their key players.

 

What really matters - in any event - if you do make the playoffs - is the type of hockey you are playing down the stretch as you enter them .  If you're not winning at the kind of clip that gets a team back into a race from a deficit like this - then you're probably not going to advance far in the playoffs regardless.

 

How far out was the team this team just knocked off in the playoffs, when St Louis went from worst to first in the second half of two seasons ago, when they won their Cup?    After 37 games (45% of the season) the Blues were in last place in the NHL = 31st of 31 teams.  But, but that's an outlier.  There are outliers every year - with multiples more factors involved in team performance (vs individual outcomes'/expectations based on individual samples).   Are the Canucks the veteran team St Louis was?  No.  But they are with a few important exceptions the team that knocked off that SCC months ago (and the newcomers are quality players).  They really need to ignore the premature pressure in the market and focus on what they can control.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by oldnews

[CanucksJay]

Woah, I think it's too early to count them out. 

2 out of Oilers Jets flames and Canucks will make it. 

I think we are the best team out of those 4.

We've outplayed our opponents starting from even the loss to the Leafs. I think if we keep up our play, we'll squeak in

[Dumb Nuck]

10 hours ago, ImConfused said:

Well that's a bit of a stretch lol

 

You do know what "mathematically" means, right?

Some math:

Green<4/6 of other coaches in our division.

Yes, we are mathematically eliminated.

[Dumb Nuck]

46 minutes ago, oldnews said:

 

How far out was the team this team just knocked off in the playoffs, when St Louis went from worst to first in the second half of two seasons ago, when they won their Cup?    After 37 games (45% of the season) the Blues were in last place in the NHL = 31st of 31 teams.  But, but that's an outlier.  There are outliers every year - with multiples more factors involved in team performance (vs individual outcomes'/expectations based on individual samples).   Are the Canucks the veteran team St Louis was?  No.  But they with a few exceptions the team that knocked off that SCC months ago.  They really need to ignore the premature pressure in the market and focus on what they can control.

 

 

Well, they did fire their coach instead of pretending being last was OK.

[oldnews]

8 hours ago, Provost said:

I haven’t had this many people disagree with me (mostly the same ones) since I suggested in the middle of last season that Virtanen was likely having a statistical “blip” in performance and would regress back to his norm.

You mean regress back to the 15 goals in 70 games that he had two seasons ago, as opposed to the 18 goals in 69 games last season.

 

The irony is that those two samples of 70 and 69 games - are far larger sample sizes than the tiny 15 game sample thus far this season - that you are obsesssing over about constantly.  The ironing is delicious.

 

Virtanen, Virtanen, Virtanen - should have traded Virtanen.  'Look - I was right about Virtanen!' 

Is he no longer going to regress back to the mean?   Of 15 to 18 goals per 70/69 games? 

Or were the 10 goals in 75 games as a 21 yr old, or the 7 in 55 as a 19 yr old more statistically relevent? 

50 goals in 279 games is the whole sample - in other words he has averaged 15 goals per 82 games from age 19 to 23 in his early NHL career.

Blow some smoke and misdirection about small samples all you want - but you are the one that attempts to finesse the point that you are relying on a small sample outlier this season - as if that's the 'real Virtanen' -  to qualify a bizarre denial of his actual large sample outcomes.

 

Additional irony - as you're obsessing over Virtanen - a marginal, unimportant player in your opinion that ought to be dumped for value before everyone else realizes how bad his "mean" is - the reality is that Elias Pettersson has a mere 4 more goals than Virtanen. and only 1 more even strength goal than Virtanen.

Pettersson is getting 4:30 of powerplay ice time/game.

EP is also getting 77.5% ozone starts and playing over 18 minutes / game.(49.9% corsi).

Pettersson has played 5 more games than Virtanen - and has one more even strength goal... Quick - trade Pettersson before he returns to mean!

Virtanen is getting 41.2% ozone starts, and under 12 minutes/ game. (44.8% corsi)

Of course you protest about large samples, small samples - any sample in fact - but never post the statistics you rely upon yourself (ie your absurd claim that Virtanen "cost the team 30 goals" last season - straight out of your posterior metric).   The return to mean argument regarding Virtanen is a complete fail - that is unless people are supposed to consider 15 goals in bottom six minutes to be disposable. horrible outcomes.

As you blind yourself to a bottom six, you're also blind about the top 6 = if you weren't you wouldn't be so obsessed with peripheral problems.

Miller has 3 more goals than Virtanen - 2 more even strength goals than Virtanen - in a couple more games than Virtanen, playing 19:50, getting 66.9% ozone starts and 4:22/game on the powerplay.

 

But obsess over Virtanen - because addressing the fact that the top line is not producing as needed - isn't as pop smarm as dwelling on your personal whipping boy.   Pointing out that top 6 forwards or Hughes are underperforming - isn't a fanboy passtime.

 

I could point out that Virtanen has a team low 1.5 on ice goals against per 60 at es, that he was second lowest last season over a 69 game sample, that he was 3rd lowest the previous season over a 70 game sample - but you will blow smoke about small samples as opposed to look at the objective outcomes.

He has a team best .953 on ice save percentage this season, 3rd best behind Sutter and Beagle last season (.925) and 2nd best among forwards (.924) two seasons ago over a 70 game sample.   "Small sample", 'cherry pick', yada yada - yet nothing but smoke and mirrors - nothing of substance in response.

He was 3rd on the team in takeaways last season with 37 over 69 game sample.  He lead the team two years ago with 46 in a 70 game sample.  You don't have much more sample than multiple years with young players - of consistent outcomes.

Second on the team in hits two years ago with 154 in 70 games, 4th last year with 102 in 69....all in limited bottom six minutes.

Blip, blip.

Anyway - you go ahead and flare up some narrative about the player - but the irony is your inability to look at the statistics (you purport to be such an expert in 'analyzing').

 

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by oldnews

[Elias Pettersson]

So how are we basically out of a playoff spot when the only two teams we have to catch are Edmonton and Calgary?  We just destroyed Calgary and proved that they are a one man team at this point.  You think Markstrom is going to steal another 20 games for them?  And Edmonton has like 3 good players.  They are marginally better than Calgary.  It's not a pipe dream that we finish ahead of both of them in the standings and get the 4th playoff spot.  

 

We have 8 games left against Edmonton.  Those games will indicate whether we make the playoffs or not.  I am not worried about Calgary at all.  

[iinatcc]

It will be tough since the Canucks can't allow to give points to the other teams they are trying to catch so even in a OT or SO win is not going to be good enough unless it's against Toronto, Montreal, or Ottawa. 

 

Canucks, from here on out, would have to beat Win, Edm, and Cgy in regulation. And Canucks have to also hope they do poorly against other teams or also lose in regulation.

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by iinatcc

[ImConfused]

2 hours ago, Dumb Nuck said:

Some math:

Green<4/6 of other coaches in our division.

Yes, we are mathematically eliminated.

[Dumb Nuck]

1 hour ago, ImConfused said:

That’s still one trick more than Greens got.

[appleboy]

This is such an odd year. Every game is 4 points. A team loses a bunch and your way behind. Go on a run and you are back in the hunt.  

[Dumb Nuck]

1 minute ago, appleboy said:

This is such an odd year. Every game is 4 points. A team loses a bunch and your way behind. Go on a run and you are back in the hunt.  

So, the secret to making the playoffs is winning?

[appleboy]

1 minute ago, Dumb Nuck said:

So, the secret to making the playoffs is winning?

Win against the right team. If you are chasing Calgary and  Edmonton for the last playoff spot . Then every game against them is a 4 pointer.

So ya.

[IBatch]

5 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

So how are we basically out of a playoff spot when the only two teams we have to catch are Edmonton and Calgary?  We just destroyed Calgary and proved that they are a one man team at this point.  You think Markstrom is going to steal another 20 games for them?  And Edmonton has like 3 good players.  They are marginally better than Calgary.  It's not a pipe dream that we finish ahead of both of them in the standings and get the 4th playoff spot.  

 

We have 8 games left against Edmonton.  Those games will indicate whether we make the playoffs or not.  I am not worried about Calgary at all.  

Calgary series was an eye opener.   Markstrom is the reason they split (although we did come out with one more point then them).   EDM is all about Drasaitl and McDavid.    Contain them and they don't win.   TO, the best team in the North, lucked out against us too.  

 

The way the team is playing now - if sustainable, we for sure have decent odds still making the playoffs, and if we do we will have one of the better records in the division after the first 16 or so games.   We won't win them all of course, just like TO 11 seconds and a hot goalie can steel games.   That said both Demko and Holtby have yet to steal one for us, pretty sure they will at some point and that stuff should even out a little more too.    All i can say is the hockey is entertaining, and with four of seven teams making it, we for sure stand a chance to sneak in still.   .650 is doable. 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, appleboy said:

Win against the right team. If you are chasing Calgary and  Edmonton for the last playoff spot . Then every game against them is a 4 pointer.

So ya.

Loser points likely will screw one team in this division too...

[Nathancanuck]

I thought that this season is already out of reach twice. After the first loss against Calgary (of this 4 game series) and in the 3rd game until Boeser tied it shorthanded.

IF we make the Playoffs I will think back to this play.

 

To give us a realistic chance to make it we should win 3 of the next 4 which is possible considering we are playing much better lately, all games are

at home, we match up quiet well against Edmonton, Winnipeg without Laine and Dubois is on IR atm..

 

So far against the teams we are chasing:

vs. Edmonton (1-1-0) both road games

vs. Winnipeg (1-0-0) road game

vs. Calgary (2-3-1) 3 home/ 3 road

That's a 4-4-1 record against our closest rivals while playing 2/3 on the road and including a 3 out of 4 losses to start the season.

 

Keys to make the Playoffs:

- Win the season series against Edmonton, Winnipeg and at least tie Calgary

- Go slightly above .500 in 16 remaining games against Ottawa (6), Toronto (6), Montreal (4). Something like 8-7-1 should be doable.

 

@Provost that we are 4.2 points behind Calgary also means we would only need to make up 2.2 points until the last game of the season and then beat Calgary.

If you put it this way it actually looks very possible. And yes we would still need to catch Edmonton or Winnipeg but we can do it by winning the series against them

or one of them goes on a losing streak. It's still not out of hand but the next couple of games are absolutely crucial.

 

 

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, Dumb Nuck said:

Some math:

Green<4/6 of other coaches in our division.

Yes, we are mathematically eliminated.

I know you've made this perfectly clear ... but why is it when we are a home team, with or without fans, TG has the last change - and we have a winning record?   Even this year with our terrible start we are 5-3-1....

[Provost]

8 hours ago, oldnews said:

You mean regress back to the 15 goals in 70 games that he had two seasons ago, as opposed to the 18 goals in 69 games last season.

 

Haha... only in your world is 25 points the same as 36 points.

 

... only in your world is an almost PPG pace over a few weeks (which was proof for you that he turned a corner and was a stud)... the same as being on a 15 point pace in the calendar year since then.

 

... sure, he is playing just as well now as he was a year ago.  Don’t let reality get in the way of your (uninformed) opinion.

 

Add Virtanen to your “all-star” foundational player team of Gudbranson, Sutter, and Beagle that you obsess over as being amazing... don’t let objective reality or your vast personal history of being repeatedly wrong about virtually everything get in your way... 

 

Funny how salty and aggressive you always get after being proven wrong (yet again) and that it is dumb that I was right about trading Virtanen when his asset value was at its highest.  It would never cross your mind to not actively attack other posters in the first place with your bad takes?  That way you wouldn’t keep getting put in the position of having to lash out in frustration.  You know that you can disagree with someone without being a jerk about it... and it is OK to he wrong.  It is the way you keep telling everyone else how stupid they are... and then repeatedly have history show that they were right... that is what annoys people about you.
 

If you think the Jake issue is meaningless, then imagine a world where he was traded in the offseason to get rid of Eriksson’s contract... or even Beagle’s contract.  Our team would look significantly better.

 

(you haven’t pulled out old the “rage searching my old posts” for something I was wrong about months ago trick for a while... you should try that to make yourself feel better.  I can make it easy for you, I thought Motte was a fringe NHLer, he has shown to be as solid a 4th liner as you are going to find and a perfect fit for the team having turned himself into a PKer that we desperately needed).

Edited February 19, 2021 by Provost

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

Calgary series was an eye opener.   Markstrom is the reason they split (although we did come out with one more point then them).   EDM is all about Drasaitl and McDavid.    Contain them and they don't win.   TO, the best team in the North, lucked out against us too.  

 

The way the team is playing now - if sustainable, we for sure have decent odds still making the playoffs, and if we do we will have one of the better records in the division after the first 16 or so games.   We won't win them all of course, just like TO 11 seconds and a hot goalie can steel games.   That said both Demko and Holtby have yet to steal one for us, pretty sure they will at some point and that stuff should even out a little more too.    All i can say is the hockey is entertaining, and with four of seven teams making it, we for sure stand a chance to sneak in still.   .650 is doable. 

Good points. And yes we are lucky as there are only 7 teams in our division instead of 8 with no wild card spots. We can definitely finish ahead of Ottawa and Calgary. Edmonton is the team we are chasing.  Like you said they are a 2 man team. If we can stop McJesus and his side kick in those 8 games then we have a good shot at that 4th playoff spot. 

[Dumb Nuck]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

I know you've made this perfectly clear ... but why is it when we are a home team, with or without fans, TG has the last change - and we have a winning record?   Even this year with our terrible start we are 5-3-1....

3 of those games were against Ottawa.