Myers The 6million dollar man 2.0

[4petesake]

6 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

The Baumgartner angle is never addressed enough. Or as much as I want it to be addressed. 

There should be BF (Baumgartner Factor) in Corsi where you consider the starts relative to days under tutelage divided by the hypotenuse of  Baumgartner’s cranium. Suffice to say each Canuck defenceman’s numbers would be 19-37% better.

[Lancaster]

 

[kanucks25]

1 hour ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

“Tell me you don’t understand zonestarts, without telling me you don’t understand zonestarts.”  
 

OK, let’s get something straight: Myers does not start the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone.

 

At 5v5, maybe 10% of his shifts start in the defensive zone.

 

Myers’ 5v5 shifts this season:

 

Offensive zone starts: 63

Neutral zone starts: 122

Defensive zone starts: 73

On the fly starts: 460

Total: 718

 

So, percentage of shifts Myers starts in the defensive zone = 73/718 = 10.17%
 

(Pretty close to my 10% guess at the top.)

 

Zonestarts are **REALLY** not understood well on CDC. 
 

Offensive zonestart percentage = offensive zonestarts / (offensive + defensive zonestarts)

 

It’s actually a pretty misleading number. People think the percentage is for all shifts, but it’s actually just looking at a small sliver of the total shifts (offensive and defensive zonestarts). Most players start way more shifts on the fly and in the neutral zone. Offensive and defensive zonestarts make up only a small percentage of total shifts. So, they just don’t really factor in too much, when considering things like CF% (other than some extreme deployment, and even then, the adjustments are fairly small).

 

For Myers’ offensive zonestart percentage, I doubt you’d adjust his CF% more than maybe +0.25-0.5%, so it’s basically negligible.

 

This is why most stats sites don’t even offer zonestart adjusted stats any more. It was determined a long time ago that zonestarts don’t really account for much, and for the vast majority of players, the adjustment is tiny and not worse even considering, when evaluating or comparing players, on stats like CF%, etc. 

 

Myers’ CF% is worse than nearly all of the players listed by the OP (I think Morrissey was worse), but even accounting for deployment (which again, is basically negligible difference), it’s still really bad.

 

And on the Canucks D, here’s how Myers stacks up, relative to his teammates.

 

CF%Rel: -2.35 (2nd worst)

FF%Rel: -4.64 (2nd worst)

SF%Rel: -3.88 (2nd worst)

xGF%Rel: -5.67 (worst)

SCF%Rel: -3.61 (worst)

HDCF%Rel: -5.75 (2nd worst)

 

Penalty differential: -11; 12 taken, 1 drawn (worst)

 

I’m not here to drag Myers, but any claim that he has a positive statistical profile, is either not understanding the stats, or misleading people.

 

His underlying numbers are not good.

[Devron]

Yup good ol Canucks fans making issues that aren’t warranted. Myers is fine. Little overpaid but not far off.
 

I can’t even get into it with people I just say the contracts worth it cause it’s not that far off. Some people make it sound like LE or something. 

 

You want to know the issues with our cap

Baertchi

Spooner Buyout

Luongo 

And my nemesis Loui Eriksson

 

Everything else is circumstantial, Mostly from injury  

Edited March 27, 2021 by Devron44

[Dats hockey]

I may be in the minority but I like Myers and don’t mind his cap hit I think he add things this team need size aggressiveness

[knucklehead91]

15 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

None of this makes any sense.

 

How does he make the goalies job easier when it's a fact that he's our worst D-man when it comes to scoring chances and expected goals against?

 

He's doing exactly the opposite of what you're saying... the goalie's job is harder when he's on the ice because the other team is constantly getting good shots and chances. He's just lucky our goalies have been making difficult saves when he's on the ice.

It makes perfectly fine sense. 

So if Myers is making our goalie's job harder.... How much harder are the above players making their goalies job.... Or do their goalies just suck?

oiSV% is reflective of defensive zone play. Clearing the crease, moving pucks out of danger, blocking shots, taking away shooting lanes, forcing players to take shots from low scoring area's.

Scoring chances are a a stat that has many variables, ie turnovers from any of the other players on the ice, broken sticks, bad line changes, getting caught on the ice, players leaving the zone too early. Dmen getting caught pinching at the line, blocked shots leading to partial breakaways, injuries, new dpartners etc etc....

 

 

I think you will be glad to have Myers who plays all situations aside from PP. If the guy is being leaned on heavily on the PK, he's doing just fine.

[189lb enforcers?]

I took a break from the forum and site and came back — to see *this as being the new gold standard for what CDC has become.    Come on, CDC, be better. 
 

This is as bad as I’ve seen in 23 years of posting here.  Take a bow, especially the OP — winner of the Worst Thread Narrative Award, ever.  
 

An I-told-you-so post, fashioned into its own thread, which instantly became wall of shame material for CDC.  Mic drop moments by Sid, as usual.  
 

Nice to see the bait not taken, taken seriously at least.  Good job, gents. 
 

@Silky mitts and @kanucks25 responding to Ricky, the OP: 

 

@SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME 

Thanks for the epic post, context and read. You and @mll keep the place honest. 
 

[kanucks25]

2 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Scoring chances are a a stat that has many variables, ie turnovers from any of the other players on the ice, broken sticks, bad line changes, getting caught on the ice, players leaving the zone too early. Dmen getting caught pinching at the line, blocked shots leading to partial breakaways, injuries, new dpartners etc etc....

So explain why these things tend to happen more when Myers is on the ice compared to our other D-men?

 

Just a happy coincidence?

 

Do his teammates hate him and play bad on purpose?

 

It again, really makes no sense. You're essentially suggesting that everything is normal when Myers is not on the ice but when he jumps on, things go haywire but none of it is his fault lol

[hammertime]

1 hour ago, rychicken said:

Drink some Canucks kool-aid and imagine a defence with 6 Tyler Myers... 

 

Pete Pete Pete 

Pete Pete Pete 

Pete Pete Pete 

Pete Pete Pete 

Hughes Hughes

Hughes Hughes

Hughes Hughes

 

A team needs players to play roles and The role Myers plays is a dimension the canucks are woefully lacking. So I'm happy to have him. Just not 6 of him.

 

[knucklehead91]

1 hour ago, kanucks25 said:

So explain why these things tend to happen more when Myers is on the ice compared to our other D-men?

 

Just a happy coincidence?

 

Do his teammates hate him and play bad on purpose?

 

It again, really makes no sense. You're essentially suggesting that everything is normal when Myers is not on the ice but when he jumps on, things go haywire but none of it is his fault lol

are you referring to expected plus minus?

[canuck73_3]

3 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

None of this makes any sense.

 

How does he make the goalies job easier when it's a fact that he's our worst D-man when it comes to scoring chances and expected goals against?

 

He's doing exactly the opposite of what you're saying... the goalie's job is harder when he's on the ice because the other team is constantly getting good shots and chances. He's just lucky our goalies have been making difficult saves when he's on the ice.

The more things change, the more they say the same. 

[Bad_BOI_pete]

this graph shows a few things.

1. Our division has really tough competition.

2. our defensive system is very consistent but in a bad way. we get the same results even against the crappy 4th liners.

3. our system is best described as a "you never get this" from the movie borat. eventually they break down the cage and they get this.

4.the longer Myers stays out on the ice the more scoring chances we give up and the less we accumulate, green really should try to reduce myers shift lengths.

 

green could accomplish this by simply making hughes and myers a pairing, they would pickup more TOI with extra shifts.

 

 

 

 

 

Even ottawa's defensive structure although not impressive, allows for it's best and also worst defenders to challenge thier opponents, the better defenders get better results like they should.

 

[knucklehead91]

4 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

None of this makes any sense.

 

How does he make the goalies job easier when it's a fact that he's our worst D-man when it comes to scoring chances and expected goals against?

 

He's doing exactly the opposite of what you're saying... the goalie's job is harder when he's on the ice because the other team is constantly getting good shots and chances. He's just lucky our goalies have been making difficult saves when he's on the ice.

okay so if you want to see what good goaltending is versus poor defense then pay the f*** attention to this stat.

E+/- (expected plus minus based on shots/shooting% from around the league in that spot)

 

Myers E+/- -1

Hedman E+/- -3.7

Sergachev E+/- -3.4

McDonagh E+/- -3.4

Rutta E+/- -3.3

Cernak E+/- -3.2 

(JUST SO YOU KNOW....THOSE GUYS ABOVE IN BOLD ALL PLAY FOR TAMPA F***ING BAY THE TOP TEAM IN THE LEAGUE WITH THE HIGHEST TEAM +/-)

Hamilton E+/- -1.7 (2nd worst on car)

Slavin E+/- +.5

Faulk E+/- -5 (worst on STL)

Parayko E+/- -4.8 (2nd worst on STL)

Krug E+/- -2.9

Yandle E+/- +5.6

Ekblad E+/- +9.9

Morrissey E+/- -4.8 (the worst on WPG) 

Doughty E+/- +1.8

 

dont worry it gets better...

 

S. Jones E+/- -10.6 (worst on CBJ)

D. Savard E+/- -7.2 (3rd worst on CBJ)

Werenski E+/- -6.2 (4th worst on CBJ)

Ekholm E+/- -5.9

Ellis E+/- -1.9

Letang E+/- - 6.7 (worst on pitt)

Barrie E+/- -6.0 (worst on edm)

A. Larsson E+/- -5.9 (2nd worst)

Subban E+/- -8.9 (worst on NJD)

Severson E+/- -6.6 (2nd worst on NJD)

Pietrangelo E+/- +1.4

Theodore E+/- +3.5 

 

@Silky mitts @kanucks25 Take a gooooood long look... I've thrown in a bunch more players from around the league. out of 27 top 4 D from around the league..... Myers has the 7th best E+/-.... meaning HIS GOALIE ISNT BAILING HIM OUT. ALL OF TAMPA IS BEING SAVED BY VASILEVSKIY. Only 2 players that have suited up for Tampa have a positive E+/-... they have a combined 6 games played and a combined E+/- of +0.6

 Almost every player on this list has a higher standing in the league. Some are juggernauts... Or atleast you'd think tampa is (lets see what happens without Vas). But its actually teams like Florida and Vegas who are playing a sound defensive game. 

Oh and just to remind you again... Most guys on this list make more than Myers... and are on better teams.

 

Edit: and when I say the only players on Tampa to be a positive E+/-... im talking about their entire f***ing roster, not just defense

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by knucklehead91

[Dazzle]

@knucklehead91 Hey dude. It's pretty obvious that both of them have no grasp of statistics, so they rely on people who do. In other words, kanucks25 and silky are looking for confirmation biases to support their claims, which is nothing new. Both of them are notable Benning bashers and regularly ignore evidence that doesn't support their viewpoints.

[kanucks25]

@knucklehead91

 

That's actually the first time I've ever seen "expected +/-", so congrats on that. Somehow turned an outdated meaningless stat into analytics? Curious where you even found that.

 

Regardless +/- isn't a stat that applies across the board. There are several reasons why it's not considered a stat worth looking at anymore, but most importantly (or in general) it's because it provides absolutely no context (teammates, deployment, etc.)

 

For example, you've included players in your list that play shutdown roles vs the other team's top forwards whereas Myers doesn't do that on our team (Edler - Schmidt pairing does).

 

Reread @SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME's post again for a better breakdown.

 

[kanucks25]

6 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

@knucklehead91 Hey dude. It's pretty obvious that both of them have no grasp of statistics, so they rely on people who do. In other words, kanucks25 and silky are looking for confirmation biases to support their claims, which is nothing new. Both of them are notable Benning bashers and regularly ignore evidence that doesn't support their viewpoints.

Unfair.

 

I'm not a Benning basher.

 

I am only a basher of stupidity and illogic.

 

It's just a coincidence that so many of his transactions fall under those categories.

 

 

E: Also let the record show: I was not the one that brought up Benning in this thread. 

Edited March 27, 2021 by kanucks25

[Nucksownyou]

LOL, more cries and lies from @kanucks25 and his Benning-bashing buddies. Dumb posts both here and on reddit.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Argh! Just when I when gonna head to bed, I go on CDC, get an notification from a mention, head over to this thread, and...

 

 

I really don’t have a dog in this fight, but this X+/- stuff piqued my interest.

 

First off, let me admit, X+/- isn’t a stat I use, and I have no idea about their actual methodology, or if there’s been anything published on it, other than a few vague blurbs. I generally use xGF%, which is ostensibly measuring the same thing.

 

But wow, is there ever a big difference in the results.

 

So nearly all the Tampa Bay Lightning have negative X+/- then? That seems a little sus.

 

Especially when you look at their xGF%, and 2/3 of that team is over 50% (so positive).

 

Weird.

 

And then you look at the Canucks, and it’s pretty much the reverse. 19/28 of the Canucks have positive X+/-, but only 6/28 have an xGF% over 50.

 

Weird.

 

I’m really not sure about X+/-. Those results look kinda wonky, which makes me seriously question their model.

 

But, even if we accept X+/-, how does one explain Myers having the 5th worst X+/- on the Canucks, and 23 Canucks players, including 6 defensemen, having better X+/- stats than Myers this season?

 

Makes you think.

[kanucks25]

17 minutes ago, Nucksownyou said:

LOL, more cries and lies from @kanucks25 and his Benning-bashing buddies. Dumb posts both here and on reddit.

It's nice not having to pay rent.

[Nucksownyou]

1 hour ago, kanucks25 said:

It's nice not having to pay rent.

Don't flatter yourself.